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9月氟化工月度观察
2025-10-14 14:44
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The fluorochemical industry is experiencing a price index increase due to rising raw material and refrigerant prices, with the refrigerant prices surpassing the 2021 peak since the end of 2023 [1][4] - The overall performance of the fluorochemical industry in September 2025 was strong, outperforming the Shenwan Chemical Index by 6.39 percentage points and the Shanghai Composite Index by 6.97 percentage points [3] Refrigerant Market Insights - R22 prices are stable at over 40,000 yuan per ton, with a slight decrease in transaction prices due to last year's inventory buildup, yielding a gross profit of 25,000 yuan per ton [5] - R32, the main refrigerant, has seen a price increase to over 63,000 yuan per ton, with a gross profit nearing 50,000 yuan per ton, driven by strong domestic and international demand and supply constraints [5] - R125 faces replacement due to its high GWP value but remains profitable, priced at 460,000 yuan per ton with a gross profit of about 30,000 yuan [6] - The mixed refrigerant 410A has increased in price due to the rise in R32 prices, and air conditioning manufacturers are shifting from quarterly to monthly pricing agreements to improve performance realization [6] Export and Demand Trends - R32 exports have shown significant year-on-year growth, with some export prices exceeding domestic prices, while other refrigerants like 222 have seen declines due to quota reductions [7] - The demand for refrigerant 13C in the automotive sector is increasing, with prices reaching 53,000 yuan per ton and gross profits around 37,000 yuan, making it the second-largest price increase after R32 [8] - The niche refrigerant 227EA has seen a dramatic price increase from over 40,000 yuan to 76,000 yuan per ton due to concentrated demand and quota issues, marking it as a market standout [9] Future Outlook - The liquid cooling technology market in data centers is projected to exceed 100 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 51%, although fluorinated liquids have not yet seen large-scale application due to high costs and technical barriers [2][11] - The air conditioning industry is expected to see an increase in production in Q4 2025, driven by demand from events like Double Eleven, despite a year-on-year decline in October production [12] - The automotive industry in China has reached record highs in both production and exports, with a total export of 4.265 million vehicles by August 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.1% [13] Noteworthy Industry Developments - Key developments include the completion of a specialized gas and functional materials industrial park by He Yuan Gas, and significant performance increases reported by companies like Yonghe Co. and Sanmei Co. [14] - The future of second and third-generation refrigerants appears promising due to tightening supply and increasing downstream demand, suggesting potential price increases for R32 and R134A [15]