会议主持人 2: 好的。各位投资者晚上好，我们本周的视频会议，这个电话，这个题目是地产链逻辑再梳 理，因为上周的表现也很好，我们再梳理一下整个地产链的一个逻辑，然后找一下这个投 资机会吧。首先我们还是有请策略首席方毅老师。 方奕 国泰海通策略首席: 好的，谢谢。各位朋友大家晚上好，我是方毅。那应该来讲，这个我们国泰海通应该是唯 一一个在上周三开始正式提示地产和地产链的投资机会的证券机构。那大家也可以看到， 从上周三以来，应该来说，以地产和地产链相关的这个表现，开始明显的跑赢市场。那今 天，这个我想和大家，重点，再沟通一下这个我们的看法。那对市场整体来讲，其实上我 想这一点不用再赘述了，我相信大家也应该都知道国泰君安是全市场最坚决、最乐观，也 是最坚定的。 那我认为，在春节前站上 4200 的可能性是非常大的。4200 也从来不是一个这个过不了 的关口。我认为这个未来大家会看到市场的积极变化，而且大家也要理解今天的证券，我 们叫做这个监管的离，这个干预。实际上最近大家回看，在最近两周，实际上市场是非常 活跃的，投资机会非常好，只是 300 个股票。似乎好像受到了制约。但是如果你看，除了 这 300 个股票之外， ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The fluorochemical industry is experiencing a price index increase due to rising raw material and refrigerant prices, with the refrigerant prices surpassing the 2021 peak since the end of 2023 [1][4] - The overall performance of the fluorochemical industry in September 2025 was strong, outperforming the Shenwan Chemical Index by 6.39 percentage points and the Shanghai Composite Index by 6.97 percentage points [3] Refrigerant Market Insights - R22 prices are stable at over 40,000 yuan per ton, with a slight decrease in transaction prices due to last year's inventory buildup, yielding a gross profit of 25,000 yuan per ton [5] - R32, the main refrigerant, has seen a price increase to over 63,000 yuan per ton, with a gross profit nearing 50,000 yuan per ton, driven by strong domestic and international demand and supply constraints [5] - R125 faces replacement due to its high GWP value but remains profitable, priced at 460,000 yuan per ton with a gross profit of about 30,000 yuan [6] - The mixed refrigerant 410A has increased in price due to the rise in R32 prices, and air conditioning manufacturers are shifting from quarterly to monthly pricing agreements to improve performance realization [6] Export and Demand Trends - R32 exports have shown significant year-on-year growth, with some export prices exceeding domestic prices, while other refrigerants like 222 have seen declines due to quota reductions [7] - The demand for refrigerant 13C in the automotive sector is increasing, with prices reaching 53,000 yuan per ton and gross profits around 37,000 yuan, making it the second-largest price increase after R32 [8] - The niche refrigerant 227EA has seen a dramatic price increase from over 40,000 yuan to 76,000 yuan per ton due to concentrated demand and quota issues, marking it as a market standout [9] Future Outlook - The liquid cooling technology market in data centers is projected to exceed 100 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 51%, although fluorinated liquids have not yet seen large-scale application due to high costs and technical barriers [2][11] - The air conditioning industry is expected to see an increase in production in Q4 2025, driven by demand from events like Double Eleven, despite a year-on-year decline in October production [12] - The automotive industry in China has reached record highs in both production and exports, with a total export of 4.265 million vehicles by August 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.1% [13] Noteworthy Industry Developments - Key developments include the completion of a specialized gas and functional materials industrial park by He Yuan Gas, and significant performance increases reported by companies like Yonghe Co. and Sanmei Co. [14] - The future of second and third-generation refrigerants appears promising due to tightening supply and increasing downstream demand, suggesting potential price increases for R32 and R134A [15]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the chemical industry, particularly addressing the issue of "anti-involution" and the need for policy changes to enhance product quality and phase out outdated production capacity [1][3][16]. Core Insights and Arguments - The Central Financial Committee's meeting emphasizes the need to govern low-price disorderly competition, indicating potential policy changes aimed at improving product quality and promoting the exit of outdated capacity [1][3]. - Historical cases show that industry self-discipline (e.g., in the potassium fertilizer and dye industries) and capacity clearance (e.g., in TMA and soda ash industries) are effective ways to combat market involution, significantly boosting product prices and related company stock prices [1][4][5]. - Environmental and energy consumption policies have a significant impact on chemical production, with examples such as the refrigerant quota system leading to substantial price increases for R32 and R134A, benefiting related listed companies [1][6]. - The chromium salt industry has seen a reduction in the number of companies due to environmental restrictions, leading to increased industry concentration and rising profit margins for leading companies like Zhenhua [1][7]. - The DMF market has experienced a supply contraction due to major producers halting production, resulting in significant price increases and improved performance for related companies [1][8]. - Glyphosate prices are highly sensitive to supply-side disruptions, with environmental inspections and adverse weather conditions causing significant price fluctuations, impacting the performance of related companies [1][10]. Additional Important Content - The chemical industry is expected to experience a supply-demand resonance by 2026, with anticipated benefits from Federal Reserve interest rate cuts favoring exports, while foreign capital exit and domestic capital expenditure slowdown will lead to supply reductions [2][16]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring sub-industries that have been in prolonged downturns and may see supply reductions and quality improvements, such as PVC in the real estate chain and spandex in the textile chain [15][16]. - Recommendations include focusing on industries identified for elimination and restriction by the National Development and Reform Commission, as these are likely to be influenced by policy changes [16]. - The chemical industry is seen as a key area for achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals, with various policies aimed at promoting green transformation [11][12]. - The report suggests that 2025 will be a foundational year for policy implementation, with 2026 expected to be a year of policy execution, leading to potential capacity exits or reductions that could improve supply-demand relationships [16]. Investment Recommendations - Suggested sub-industries for investment include organic silicon, glyphosate, and industrial silicon, as well as companies like Xingfa Group and Xinfengming [16][17]. - The refrigerant industry is highlighted as a successful case of self-discipline under political constraints, with significant price increases and profit improvements for companies like Juhua and Sanmei [17]. - The report advises early positioning in the market to capitalize on upcoming investment opportunities before prices rise significantly [16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [1][8][6] - The target price is set at RMB 32.75, with the current price at RMB 25.41 [1][8] Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the refrigerant market cycle, with substantial growth in revenue and net profit projected for 2024 and Q1 2025 [1][8] - Revenue and net profit for 2024 are forecasted at RMB 24.46 billion and RMB 1.96 billion, representing year-on-year increases of 18.43% and 107.69% respectively [8][6] - The company holds a leading position in refrigerant quotas, with a 34% share of the total HFCs quota for 2025 [8][6] Financial Summary - For 2024, the company expects revenue of RMB 24.46 billion, up 18.4% from 2023, and net profit of RMB 1.96 billion, up 107.7% [2][8] - The EPS for 2025 is projected at RMB 1.31, with further increases to RMB 1.57 in 2026 and RMB 1.78 in 2027 [2][8] - The company’s refrigerant prices increased by 32.69% year-on-year in 2024, with production and sales volumes also showing significant growth [8][6] Market Dynamics - The demand for refrigerants is expected to remain strong, driven by the growth in air conditioning, refrigeration, and emerging overseas markets [8][6] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has announced a total HFCs quota of 79.19 million tons for 2025, which will benefit the company as a quota leader [8][6] - The report highlights the ongoing optimization of the supply-demand balance in the refrigerant market under quota constraints [8][6] Strategic Initiatives - The company is investing in advanced industries, including high-end fluoropolymers and fourth-generation refrigerants, ensuring long-term growth [8][6] - The Gansu Juhua project, with a total investment of RMB 19.63 billion, aims to establish production facilities for various refrigerants and related products [8][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 32.75, compared to the current price of RMB 25.41 [1][8]. Core Views - The company is expected to experience significant growth in 2024 and Q1 2025, with revenue and net profit for 2024 projected at RMB 24.46 billion and RMB 1.96 billion, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 18.43% and 107.69% [8]. - The company benefits from a strong position in the refrigerant market, particularly in the third-generation refrigerants, as demand continues to grow due to favorable quota policies and increasing downstream demand [1][8]. Financial Summary - Revenue and net profit for 2024 are projected to be RMB 24.46 billion and RMB 1.96 billion, respectively, with a year-on-year growth of 18.43% and 107.69% [2][8]. - For Q4 2024, revenue and net profit are expected to reach RMB 6.56 billion and RMB 0.70 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 41.21% and 256.83% [8]. - The company’s EPS for 2025 and 2026 is forecasted to be RMB 1.31 and RMB 1.57, with an additional forecast of RMB 1.78 for 2027 [8]. Market Position and Demand - The company holds a 34% share of the refrigerant quotas, with significant production quotas for R32, R125A, and R134A [8]. - The demand for refrigerants is expected to remain strong, driven by the growth in air conditioning, refrigeration, and emerging overseas markets [8]. Price Trends - The report notes that refrigerant prices have increased significantly, with a year-on-year rise of 32.69% in 2024 [8]. - As of April 25, 2025, the prices for various refrigerants are reported as follows: R22 at RMB 36,000/ton, R134A at RMB 47,000/ton, R125 at RMB 45,000/ton, R32 at RMB 48,000/ton, and R410A at RMB 48,000/ton, with notable monthly and quarterly increases [8]. Strategic Investments - The company is investing in advanced industries, including high-end fluoropolymers and fourth-generation refrigerants, with a significant project in Gansu involving an investment of RMB 19.63 billion [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company has been upgraded to OUTPERFORM [2][3][10] Core Views - The company has shown significant growth, with a 2024 operating income of Rmb 4.04 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 21.17%, and a net profit of Rmb 779 million, up 178.4% year-on-year [4][7] - The refrigerant prices are on an upward trend, significantly improving the company's profitability, with a gross margin of 29.79% in 2024, increasing to 46.70% in Q1 2025 [8][9] - The demand for refrigerants is expected to continue rising due to increasing air conditioning production and sales, as well as growing ownership of refrigerators and vehicles in domestic and emerging markets [9] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: Rmb 5.95 billion in 2025, Rmb 6.47 billion in 2026, and Rmb 7.05 billion in 2027, with corresponding net profits of Rmb 2.01 billion, Rmb 2.42 billion, and Rmb 2.87 billion [3][10] - The company’s diluted EPS is expected to rise from Rmb 3.30 in 2025 to Rmb 4.70 in 2027, with a target price set at Rmb 59.40 based on an 18x PE ratio for 2025 [3][10] - The company’s refrigerant production and sales figures for 2024 were 162,600 tons and 123,400 tons, respectively, with prices averaging Rmb 26,055.9 per ton, a 28.17% increase year-on-year [8][9]