证券研究报告 | 2025年10月11日 氟化工行业：2025 年 9 月月度观察 优于大市 四季度制冷剂长协价格落地，制冷剂报价持续上涨 9 月氟化工行情回顾：截至 9 月末（9 月 30 日），上证综指报 3882.78 点， 较 8 月末（8 月 29 日）上涨 0.64%；沪深 300 指数报 4640.69 点，较 8 月末 上涨 3.20%；申万化工指数报 4113.74，较 8 月末上涨 1.22%；氟化工指数报 1809.47 点，较 8 月末上涨 7.61%。8 月氟化工行业指数跑赢申万化工指数 6.39pct,跑赢沪深 300 指数 4.41pct，跑赢上证综指 6.97pct。 主流制冷剂产品四季度长协价格落地。据卓创资讯，R32 长协价格为 6.02 万元/吨，较三季度长协价格上涨 9600 元/吨，增幅 18.97%；R410A 长协价 格为 5.32 万元/吨，较三季度价格上涨 3600 元/吨，涨幅为 7.26%。此外， 据氟务在线，制冷剂大厂对外报价或将由季度定价模式转为月度定价模式， 制冷剂价格上涨到制冷剂企业业绩增长的传导将更加顺畅。 R32、R134a 报价持续上涨。R3 ...

化工产品：整体承压，结构分化 产能过剩整体承压下不同子行业分化明显。价格表现好的子行业主要集中在产能增长压力较小的子行业 如制冷剂，刚需和供给集中的子行业如磷肥钾肥、食品饲料添加剂、部分小品种农药，内需为主或进口 替代的子行业如改性塑料、合成树脂、复合肥等。Q3主要化工品价格价差环比变动有所分化。 根据百川盈孚及Wind数据，截至2025年9月26日，主要化工产品2025Q3平均价格环比上涨、持平和下跌 产品数量占比分别为29%、3%和68%，其中，环比涨幅位居前五的品种分别是TDI、环氧氯丙烷、促进 剂D、R32和草甘膦，涨幅分别为25.7%/21.4%/15.6%/15.2%/13.2%。此外，截至2025年9月26日，主要化 工产品2025Q3平均价差环比上涨、持平和下跌产品数量占比分别为42%、0%和58%，其中，环比涨幅 位居前五的品种分别是电石法PVC、TDI、R32、草甘膦和R134a，分别涨幅为 62.1%/38.7%/24.2%/17.9%/14.0%。 行业观点：看好供需改善的子行业和进口替代的新材料 智通财经APP获悉，浙商证券发布研报称，根据国家统计局数据，2025年前8月化学原料与制 ...

氟化工：制冷剂主升进行时，AI 液冷再蓄势 20250926 制冷剂行业在不同国家之间有何差异？ 制冷剂行业的全球政策对所有国家都有严格约束，但发达国家优先进行控制， 而发展中国家则稍晚一些。发展中国家分为两组，中国属于第一组，与大部分 发展中国家在同一时间点，即 2020 年至 2022 年，以这三年的平均使用量作 制冷剂市场集中度高，R32 和 R134a 等主要品种均由少数龙头企业控 制约 90%的市场份额，具备较强的稳定性，使得行业能够通过精细管理 实现稳定发展，成为反内卷标杆。 液冷技术作为新兴应用领域，对制冷剂需求不断增长，国内氟化工龙头 企业积极布局电子氟化液和液冷相关业务，有望成为液冷赛道的重要供 应商，推动制冷剂需求持续增长。 为基线值。这意味着三代制冷剂在这段时间内的平均使用量加上二代制冷剂尚 未淘汰完毕所预留出来的市场空间，共同构成了供给上限，即 18.5 亿吨二氧 化碳当量。 中国在全球制冷剂市场中的地位如何？ 中国在全球三代制冷剂供应中占据绝对主导地位，供应量超过全球总需求的 80%。为了便于管理，中国按照品种发放配额，并根据 GWP 值计算总量。在 执行过程中，如果某个品种需求增长 ...

Group 1 - The supply side is expected to undergo structural optimization, with domestic policies frequently mentioning "anti-involution" and overseas chemical companies in Europe and America shutting down or exiting capacity due to rising raw material costs and Asian production impacts [1] - Short-term geopolitical tensions are increasing uncertainty in overseas supply, while China is expected to reshape the global chemical landscape in the long term due to its cost and technological advantages [1] - Key sectors to focus on include organic silicon, membrane materials, chlor-alkali, and dyes, as well as leading companies in coal chemical, fluorinated refrigerants, and pesticides [1] Group 2 - The three generations of refrigerants are experiencing price increases due to quota restrictions and rising demand, with significant price increases for R32, R134a, and R125 within the year, leading to substantial profit growth for related companies [1] - The demand for health additives and sugar substitutes is rising under new consumption trends, indicating a potential recovery in the food additives industry [1] - The self-sufficiency rate of new chemical materials is approximately 56%, with accelerated domestic substitution creating development opportunities in areas such as photoresists and high-end engineering plastics [1] Group 3 - The chemical leader ETF (516220) tracks a specialized chemical index (000813) that focuses on sub-sectors within the Chinese chemical industry, including specialty chemicals, fertilizers, and pesticides, reflecting the overall performance of high-growth and technologically advanced chemical companies [1] - The index components are primarily companies with leading advantages in specific chemical products or technologies, emphasizing new materials and fine chemicals, which showcase the innovation and development dynamics of the chemical industry [1]

根据产业在线数据，2025年9月到2025年11月，我国家用空调排产总量分别为1075.00万台、1088.01万 台、1220.28万台，同比增速分别为-11.98%、-22.60%和-19.70%。根据百川盈孚数据，2024年6月以来， R32出口量较往年有提升趋势。一方面受到海外需求及补库提升，另一方面国内空调企业海外产能提升 带动了制冷剂出口量的上行。 行业要闻 智通财经APP获悉，东海证券发布研报称，2025年二代制冷剂配额削减，三代制冷剂生产配额总量保持 在基线值，二代、三代制冷剂供需关系仍然趋紧。2025年以来制冷剂价格稳步上行，8月、9月制冷剂价 格持续提升，根据百川盈孚数据，截至2025年9月19日，三代制冷剂R32、R134a、R125价格本年度分别 上涨44.19%、22.35%、8.33%。2025年上半年，制冷剂生产企业巨化股份(600160.SH)、三美股份 (603379.SH)、永和股份(605020.SH)归母净利润分别同比增长145.84%、159.22%、140.82%。制冷剂行 业有望维持高景气，相关生产企业盈利能力有望持续提升。 东海证券主要观点如下： 2025年8月 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates a rising trend in the prices of third-generation refrigerants as of August 29, 2025, with R32, R125, and R134a priced at 60,000 yuan/ton, 45,500 yuan/ton, and 51,500 yuan/ton respectively, reflecting increases of 9.09%, 0.00%, and 3.00% compared to the end of July [1][2] - The price of R22 has also increased to 35,500 yuan/ton, marking a 1.43% rise from the previous month and an 18.33% increase year-on-year [1][2] - The report highlights a decline in domestic air conditioning production from September to November 2025, with year-on-year decreases of 11.98%, 22.60%, and 19.70% respectively [3] Industry Overview - The production quotas for second-generation refrigerants are set to be reduced in 2025, while the total production quota for third-generation refrigerants will remain at baseline levels, indicating a tightening supply-demand relationship [4] - The prices of refrigerants have been steadily increasing since 2025, with significant price hikes noted in August and September, where R32, R134a, and R125 saw increases of 44.19%, 22.35%, and 8.33% respectively [4] - Major companies in the refrigerant production sector, such as Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Yonghe Co., reported substantial year-on-year net profit growths of 145.84%, 159.22%, and 140.82% respectively in the first half of 2025 [4]

Core Viewpoint - First Shanghai maintains a "buy" rating for Dongyue Group (00189), predicting revenue and net profit growth from 2025 to 2027, with a target price of HKD 18.9, indicating a potential upside of 57.5% from the current price [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Dongyue Group achieved revenue of RMB 74.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, with a gross margin of 29.1%, up nearly 9.3 percentage points; net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 7.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 153.3%, slightly exceeding the company's profit forecast [1] Group 2: Refrigerant Business - The refrigerant business experienced rapid growth, contributing significantly to the company's performance, with revenue of RMB 22.9 billion in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 47.7%; profit reached RMB 10.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 209.8%, with a segment profit margin of 44.9%, up 23.5 percentage points, driven by significant price increases in key products [2] - As of September 12, 2025, the price of second-generation refrigerant R22 was RMB 34,500 per ton, up RMB 2,500 per ton since the beginning of the year; third-generation refrigerants R134a and R32 also saw price increases [2] Group 3: Fluoropolymer and Silicone Business - The fluoropolymer materials segment faced weak downstream demand, leading to a further decline in product prices; however, the company maintained a competitive advantage with superior product quality, achieving revenue of RMB 19.4 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%, and a segment profit margin of 13.4% [3] - The silicone segment experienced a significant decline in revenue and profit due to oversupply and weak downstream demand, with revenue of RMB 27.6 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 15.9%, and a segment profit margin of 0.38% [3]

Summary of Refrigerant Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The refrigerant industry in China is experiencing stable quota policies, with the total quota for 2026 remaining the same as in 2025, while quotas for R25 and R41 are increased to compensate for the exit of 141B from the market, leading to an expected continuous rise in overall prices [1][3][18]. Key Points and Arguments Quota Adjustments and Price Trends - The quota for 232 types of refrigerants can be flexibly adjusted between 10% and 30%, allowing companies to respond to market demand while maintaining overall price increases under national control [1][4]. - The average price of third-generation refrigerants is approximately 50,000 yuan, with a long-term stable upward trend, although short-term volatility is expected for products like R32 [1][6]. Demand from Downstream Sectors - Despite a downturn in the global real estate market, demand for refrigerants in downstream sectors such as air conditioning and refrigeration continues to grow, with annual growth in new air conditioning units projected at 8% to 15% [1][7][12]. - Approximately 80% of new air conditioning units still utilize third-generation refrigerants, indicating a stable demand growth in the air conditioning market [8][12]. Future Production Capacity - An estimated 100,000 tons of new production capacity is expected to be launched in the Middle East and India by 2026, which could alleviate supply-demand tensions, although the success rate of these projects is anticipated to be below 40% [1][9][11]. Liquid Cooling Technology Impact - Liquid cooling technology is significantly increasing the demand for third-generation refrigerants, particularly in the semiconductor industry, with expected annual demand reaching tens of thousands of tons [1][14]. Second and Fourth Generation Refrigerants - The second-generation refrigerants are facing quota reductions, while the fourth-generation refrigerants currently lack formal domestic production capacity, with large-scale production expected only after 2030 [2][15]. - The price of second-generation refrigerants is expected to stabilize, while fourth-generation refrigerants are projected to see a rapid increase in application in air conditioning systems, reaching 20% by 2025 [20][21]. Additional Important Insights - The actual usage of refrigerants globally is around 23,000 tons, with a mismatch between planned production capacity and actual demand [17]. - The overall price trend for refrigerants is expected to maintain a 30% increase before 2029, driven by technological advancements and market demand changes [25]. - The current average price for second and third-generation refrigerants is about 80,000 yuan per ton, nearing a peak, with a potential ceiling at 100,000 yuan [23][24]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the refrigerant industry conference call, highlighting the current state, future expectations, and underlying dynamics affecting the market.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Chemical Sector, specifically focusing on fluorochemicals and refrigerants - **Key Trends**: Significant price increases in refrigerants, driven by supply constraints and robust demand from the air conditioning (AC) industry and emerging liquid cooling technologies for data centers Core Insights - **Refrigerant Price Increases**: - Average Selling Prices (ASPs) for refrigerants R32 and R134a have increased by 43% and 22% respectively year-to-date as of September 12, 2025, with R32 reaching Rmb61.5k/t and R134a at Rmb52.0k/t [2][8] - ASPs for R22 have also risen, reflecting a 5% increase [8] - **Market Dynamics**: - Strong supplier pricing power due to quota constraints and a favorable competitive landscape [3][8] - Anticipated continued demand growth for R32, particularly as it is used in most new household ACs, replacing R410a [3][17] - **Liquid Cooling Demand**: - AI-driven demand for liquid cooling solutions in data centers is expected to create new growth opportunities for fluorochemical companies [4][25] - Two-phase cold plate liquid cooling and immersion cooling are highlighted as key technologies, with R134a being a suitable coolant for these applications [4][26] Company-Specific Insights - **Price Target Adjustments**: - Price targets for Dongyue, Sanmei, Capchem, and Tinci have been raised due to improved earnings forecasts and favorable pricing outlooks for refrigerants [5][42] - Sanmei's price target increased from Rmb62.60 to Rmb85.60, reflecting a 37% change [5][50] - Dongyue's price target raised from HKD12.00 to HKD18.00, indicating a 50% increase [5][51] - **Earnings Forecasts**: - 2025-27E earnings for companies in the sector have been lifted, with specific increases for Dongyue (3-19%) and Sanmei (1-20%) [5][50][51] - **Valuation Metrics**: - Dongyue and Sanmei are trading at lower PE ratios compared to peers, suggesting potential for valuation upside as refrigerant prices continue to rise [39][68] Potential Risks - **Regulatory Changes**: Possible changes to the refrigerant quota policy in 2026 could impact supply dynamics [53] - **Market Competition**: The introduction of fourth-generation refrigerants may disrupt the pricing of third-generation refrigerants [53] - **Demand Fluctuations**: A potential decline in AC production in 2026 could negatively affect refrigerant demand [53] Additional Insights - **Long-term Outlook**: The refrigerant industry is expected to maintain elevated prices due to stable supply conditions and strong demand, particularly for R32 and R134a [54][66] - **Investment Opportunities**: Companies like Capchem are positioned to benefit from the exit of 3M from PFAS production, potentially capturing market share in fluorinated liquids [29][30] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the dynamics of the chemical sector, particularly in the refrigerant market, and the implications for specific companies within the industry.

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Neutral (maintained rating) [5] Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical industry showed a slight increase in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025, with total revenue reaching 1.12 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 3.1%, and net profit of 756 billion yuan, a growth of 2.0% [1][12] - The overall gross profit margin for the industry decreased to 13.1%, down 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 7.0%, also down 0.1 percentage points [1][12] - The chemical product price index (CCPI) experienced a decline of 4.1% in the first half of 2025, reflecting weak support from raw materials and excess production capacity [1][40] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In Q2 2025, the industry achieved a revenue of 588.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.0% [2] - The operating profit for Q2 2025 was 48.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.8% year-on-year but an increase of 6.2% quarter-on-quarter [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 38.2 billion yuan, down 5.3% year-on-year but up 2.3% quarter-on-quarter [2] Construction and Fixed Assets - The growth rate of construction in progress for the basic chemical industry showed a significant decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 11.3% in Q2 2025 [3] - Fixed asset scale increased, with total fixed assets reaching 14,222 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 14.5% [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with stable demand and marginal supply changes, such as MDI, amino acids, and fertilizers [4] - Specific companies recommended include Jinhe Industrial for sucralose, Yangnong Chemical for pesticides, and Wanhua Chemical for MDI [4] R&D and Financial Metrics - The average R&D expenditure for companies in the industry was notably high in sectors like polyurethane and fluorine chemicals, with R&D rates exceeding 4.5% in certain sub-industries [12][20] - The overall financial metrics indicate a mixed performance across various sub-industries, with some showing significant growth while others faced declines [35][37]