国信证券发布研报称，展望2026年一季度，伴随一季度长协价格确定，终端空调企业长协订单执行稳 定。根据百川盈孚、卓创咨询，26年1月份R22、R125、R152a报价均上涨。排产方面，2026年前两月排 产出现分化，1月受元旦假期以及部分企业前置2月春节排产影响，内销排产推高。此外，关注成本支 撑、供需改善背景下含氟聚合物价格上涨，建议关注PVDF、PTFE等含氟高分子价格修复。 国信证券主要观点如下： 一季度主流制冷剂长协价格持续上涨 展望一季度，伴随一季度长协价格确定，终端空调企业长协订单执行稳定：据卓创资讯（301299）， R32长协价格将在6.12万元/吨，环比2025年四季度价格上涨1000元/吨，涨幅1.66%；R410A长协价格在 5.51万元/吨，环比2025年四季度上涨1900元/吨，涨幅3.57%。预计往后一周R32价格区间约6.2-6.3万元/ 吨，R410a往后一周价格区间约5.5-5.6万元/吨，R134a往后一周价格区间约5.6-5.7万元/吨。 R22、R125、R152a报价上涨 根据百川盈孚、卓创咨询，本月R22报价提升至1.7万元/吨，较上月+1000元/吨；R134a报 ...

化工板块午后持续强势，反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）持续高位震荡，截至发稿，场内 价格涨3.13%。 成份股方面，锂电、磷化工、氟化工等热门板块集体猛攻！截至发稿，恩捷股份涨停，宏达股份、多氟 多双双大涨超8%，天赐材料、浙江龙盛涨超7%，星源材质、华峰化学、荣盛石化等多股涨超5%。 | 序号 代码 名称 | | 主力净流入额▼ | | --- | --- | --- | | 1 - 111111 | CI00500 基础化工(中信) | 195.99亿 | | 2 | CI00501 机械(中信) | 130.33亿 | | 3 | Cl00501 电力设备及新能源(中信) | 124.91亿 | | 4 | CI00500 有色金属(中信) | 2668.56 | | ਰ | CI00502 通信(中信) | 82.26亿 | 化工ETF联接A申购费率为：100万元以下，0.8%；100万元（含）-200万元，0.5%；200万元（含）以 上，每笔1000元。赎回费率为：7天以内，1.5%；7天（含）-180天，0.5%；180天（含）-以上，0%。 细分行业消息面上，一季度主流制冷剂长 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the fluorochemical industry [5][10]. Core Insights - The fluorochemical industry is experiencing rapid growth, with prices of fluorinated polymers continuing to rise. The performance of fluorochemical companies is strong, supported by stable demand and supply dynamics [1][4]. - The long-term outlook for mainstream refrigerants such as R32, R134a, and R125 remains positive due to tightening quota constraints, which are expected to sustain price increases [5][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - As of January 30, 2026, the fluorochemical index stood at 2155.24 points, up 6.77% from the end of December 2025. The index underperformed the Shenwan Chemical Index by 5.95 percentage points but outperformed the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite indices by 5.12 and 3.01 percentage points, respectively [1][17]. 2. Refrigerant Market Review - In the first quarter of 2026, long-term contract prices for mainstream refrigerants are on the rise. R32 is expected to be priced at 61,200 CNY/ton, a 1.66% increase from the previous quarter, while R410A is projected at 55,100 CNY/ton, up 3.57% [2][22]. - The domestic prices for R22, R134a, R125, and R32 have shown increases, with R22 reaching 17,000 CNY/ton, R125 at 48,500 CNY/ton, and R134a maintaining at 58,000 CNY/ton [24][23]. 3. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side of the fluorochemical industry is characterized by tight overall supply and low inventory levels among companies, which supports price increases. The demand side shows continued interest in stockpiling ahead of the holiday season [4][9]. - The production quotas for refrigerants in 2026 indicate a slight increase in the production capacity for R32, R125, and R134a, while R143a and R152a quotas have been reduced [4][79]. 4. Liquid Cooling Demand - The rapid growth of data centers is driving the demand for fluorinated liquids and refrigerants, as traditional air cooling methods are becoming insufficient. The market for liquid cooling solutions is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating a market size exceeding 100 billion CNY by 2027 [64][70]. - Companies involved in the production of fluorinated liquids, such as Juhua Co., Dongyue Group, and others, are well-positioned to benefit from this trend [73][74]. 5. Key Company Profit Forecasts - Juhua Co. is expected to achieve a net profit of 3.54-3.94 billion CNY in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 80%-101%. Dongyue Group and Sanmei Co. are also projected to see significant profit increases [4][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the fluorochemical industry [5][10]. Core Insights - The fluorochemical industry is experiencing rapid growth, with prices of fluoropolymers continuing to rise. The industry index has shown a performance that outpaces the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 Index [1][5]. - The first quarter of 2026 is expected to see stable execution of long-term contracts for refrigerants, with significant price increases noted for R32 and R410A [2][5]. - The demand for fluorinated liquids and refrigerants is anticipated to increase due to the growth of liquid cooling technologies in data centers, driven by the need for efficient cooling solutions [3][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - As of January 30, 2026, the fluorochemical index reached 2155.24 points, up 6.77% from the end of December 2025, while the chemical index rose by 12.72% [1][17]. - The Guosen Chemical Fluorochemical Price Index reported a 2.95% increase, indicating a positive trend in pricing for fluorochemical products [1][18]. 2. Refrigerant Market Review - Long-term contract prices for refrigerants are on the rise, with R32 priced at 61,200 CNY/ton and R410A at 55,100 CNY/ton, reflecting increases of 1.66% and 3.57% respectively from the previous quarter [2][22]. - The domestic prices for R22, R125, and R134a have also seen upward adjustments, with R22 now at 17,000 CNY/ton, up 1,000 CNY/ton from the previous month [2][24]. 3. Liquid Cooling Demand - The report highlights the urgent need for efficient cooling technologies in data centers, with liquid cooling solutions becoming increasingly favored over traditional air cooling due to their superior efficiency [3][64]. - The market for liquid cooling in data centers is projected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate of 51.4% expected from 2019 to 2027 [3][70]. 4. Refrigerant Quota Announcements - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has announced the refrigerant quotas for 2026, indicating a slight increase in production quotas for R32, R125, and R134a, while R141b's quota has been eliminated [4][79]. - The report suggests that the tightening of refrigerant quotas will support long-term price stability and growth in the industry [4][74]. 5. Company Profit Forecasts - Major companies in the fluorochemical sector, such as Juhua Co., Dongyue Group, and Sanmei Co., are expected to see significant profit growth in 2025, with Juhua's net profit projected to increase by 80%-101% [4][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the fluorochemical industry [5][10]. Core Insights - The fluorochemical industry is experiencing rapid growth, with prices of fluorinated polymers continuing to rise. The industry index has shown a performance that outpaces the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 Index [1][5]. - The first quarter of 2026 is expected to see sustained price increases for mainstream refrigerants due to stable execution of long-term contracts by terminal air conditioning companies [2][5]. - The demand for fluorinated liquids and refrigerants is anticipated to increase due to the growth of liquid cooling technologies in data centers, driven by the need for efficient cooling solutions [3][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - As of January 30, 2026, the fluorochemical index was at 2155.24 points, up 6.77% from the end of December 2025, indicating a strong performance relative to other indices [1][17]. 2. Refrigerant Market Review - Long-term contract prices for refrigerants such as R32 and R410A have increased, with R32 priced at 61,200 CNY/ton and R410A at 55,100 CNY/ton, reflecting increases of 1.66% and 3.57% respectively from the previous quarter [2][22]. - The domestic prices for R22, R125, and R134a have also seen increases, with R22 at 17,000 CNY/ton and R125 at 48,500 CNY/ton [24]. 3. Liquid Cooling Demand - The report highlights the urgent need for efficient cooling technologies in data centers, with liquid cooling solutions becoming a preferred choice due to their superior performance compared to traditional air cooling [3][64]. - The market for liquid cooling in data centers is projected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate of 51.4% expected from 2019 to 2027 [70]. 4. Refrigerant Quota Announcements - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has announced the 2026 refrigerant quotas, indicating a slight increase in production quotas for R32, R125, and R134a, while R141b's quota has been eliminated [4][79]. - The report anticipates that the stringent quota policies will continue to support the long-term growth of refrigerant products [4][74]. 5. Key Company Profit Forecasts - Key companies in the fluorochemical sector, such as Juhua Co., Dongyue Group, and Sanmei Co., are projected to achieve significant profit growth in 2025, with expected net profits increasing by 80%-176% year-on-year [4][10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the performance of the petrochemical ETF (159731), which has seen a decline of 1.88%, while its constituent stocks such as Guangdong Hongda, Sanmei Co., and Juhua Co. have shown positive growth [1] - The petrochemical ETF has recorded a total net inflow of 1.43 billion yuan over the past 20 trading days, with the latest share count reaching 1.692 billion and a total scale of 1.706 billion yuan [1] - The average price of the third-generation mainstream refrigerant R32 has stabilized at 63,000 yuan/ton since January 2026, reflecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 45%, while R134a has seen a 32% increase [1] Group 2 - The petrochemical ETF and its linked funds closely track the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, with the basic chemical industry accounting for 60.02% and the oil and petrochemical industry for 32.43%, indicating potential profit recovery from downstream chemical products [2] - The overall industry narrative is improving due to optimization of industry structure and supply-demand adjustments, suggesting a positive long-term outlook [2]

【制冷剂行业景气持续】智通财经2月4日电，传统制冷剂淡季，制冷剂行情维持稳中偏强运行。据百川 盈孚市场监测，2026年1月以来，第三代主流制冷剂R32均价稳定在6.3万元/吨，同比增长约45%； R134a市场均价稳定在5.8万元/吨，同比增长32%；截至2月3日，R125、R410a分别同比增长16%和 29%，并且这两种制冷剂自2025年四季度以来均出现持续上涨趋势。申万宏源认为，2026年各企业 HFCs配额已下发，在全球供给严格约束下，行业格局优化叠加下游需求的增长，将带来制冷剂价格和 价差的长周期向上，制冷剂作为功能性制剂，"刚需消费品"属性与"特需经营"商业模式的"基因"正在逐 步形成。 转自：智通财经 ...

开源证券近日发布氟化工行业周报：本周氟化工指数下跌4.98%，跑输上证综指4.54%。本周（1月26 日-1月30日）氟化工指数收于5062.85点，下跌4.98%，跑输上证综指4.54%，跑输沪深300指数5.06%， 跑输基础化工指数4.08%，跑赢新材料指数0.31%。 以下为研究报告摘要： 本周（1月26日-1月30日）行情回顾 本周氟化工指数下跌4.98%，跑输上证综指4.54%。本周（1月26日-1月30日）氟化工指数收于5062.85 点，下跌4.98%，跑输上证综指4.54%，跑输沪深300指数5.06%，跑输基础化工指数4.08%，跑赢新材料 指数0.31%。 实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润为8.5~11亿元，同比增长45.78%~58.10%。【ST联创（300343）】 2025年预计实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润为3000~4000万元，同比增长37.22%~82.96%。【中欣氟 材（002915）】2025年预计实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润为1600~2000万元，同比扭亏为盈。 【金石资源】公司收购诺亚氟化工股权已交割完成，并派出董事。 受益标的 推荐标的：金石资源、巨化股份、 ...

化学原料 2026 年 02 月 01 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 48% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 化学原料 沪深300 相关研究报告 《制冷剂 R404、R507 打响新年上涨 第一枪，三美股份、永和股份业绩预 增—氟化工行业周报》-2026.1.18 《制冷剂长协价格延续上涨趋势，萤 石价格企稳，金石资源拟收购诺亚氟 化工股权 — 氟 化 工 行 业 周 报 》- 2025.12.28 《2026 年制冷剂配额下发，行情保持 趋势向上；PVDF 头部企业停产，有 望助推反转行情—氟化工行业周报》 -2025.12.14 《制冷剂行业深度报告三：蓄势双 击，或迎主升》（2024.12.17） 《制冷剂政策点评：制冷剂 2025 年 配额方案征求意见稿下发，看好制冷 剂景气向上趋势延续》（2024.9.16） 《东阳光首次覆盖报告：原有主业或 迎业绩反转，制冷剂开启长景气周 期》（2024.8.27） 《制冷剂行业深度报告二：拐点已 现，行则将至》（2024.2.6） 《制冷剂行业深度报告：十年轮回， 未来已来》（20 ...

化学原料 《制冷剂行业深度报告三：蓄势双 击，或迎主升》（2024.12.17） 《制冷剂政策点评：制冷剂 2025 年 配额方案征求意见稿下发，看好制冷 剂景气向上趋势延续》（2024.9.16） 《东阳光首次覆盖报告：原有主业或 迎业绩反转，制冷剂开启长景气周 期》（2024.8.27） 《制冷剂行业深度报告二：拐点已 现，行则将至》（2024.2.6） 《制冷剂行业深度报告：十年轮回， 未来已来》（2021.10.20） 《金石资源深度报告（三）：新兴产 业创造新的需求增长极，萤石供给将 现缺口》（2021.8.22） 《三美股份深度报告：三代制冷剂将 迎"黄金十年"，静待龙头引领周期 反转》（2020.12.30） 2026 年 02 月 01 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 48% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 化学原料 沪深300 相关研究报告 《制冷剂 R404、R507 打响新年上涨 第一枪，三美股份、永和股份业绩预 增—氟化工行业周报》-2026.1.18 《制冷剂长协价格延续上涨趋势，萤 石价格企稳，金石资源 ...