投资逻辑 制冷剂供给格局作为长周期价格上行的核心支撑，长期趋势不改。制冷剂作为典型的供给侧严格受限的产品品种，是 少数具有长周期盈利持续改善的产品，由于三代制冷剂行业已经度过了 2020-2022 年的基准期白热化竞争，已经进入 行业管控生产阶段： ① 前期没有在配额期进行生产销售的企业，没有办法获得生产销售配额（除非高价购买配额或者企业收并购）； ② 现有的生产企业也同时具有配额生产的约束项，没有办法自由充分的放大现有的生产供给能力； 风险提示 高油价对于需求的抑制风险，促进消费的政策波动风险，地缘冲突进一步加剧的风险等。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 2 ③ 行业供给格局明显集中，尾部企业在前期竞争中逐步淘汰，仅有少数企业能够获得配额进行生产； ④ 经过两年多的产业链梳理，制冷剂环节的初期定价模式已经根本性扭转，制冷剂凭借其产品供给端的约束已经明 显提升产业链定价话语权，下游产品在价格小幅度上行的过程中，价格敏感度可控； ⑤ 目前的三代制冷剂仍然作为多重制冷剂场景中的主要方案，短期内没有具有经济性价比或者成熟的替代性产品， 预估较二代制冷剂能够维持更长的生命周期。 综合多个维度，制冷剂的长期逻辑没有发生改变， ...

投资逻辑 ④ 经过两年多的产业链梳理，制冷剂环节的初期定价模式已经根本性扭转，制冷剂凭借其产品供给端的约束已经明 显提升产业链定价话语权，下游产品在价格小幅度上行的过程中，价格敏感度可控； ⑤ 目前的三代制冷剂仍然作为多重制冷剂场景中的主要方案，短期内没有具有经济性价比或者成熟的替代性产品， 预估较二代制冷剂能够维持更长的生命周期。 综合多个维度，制冷剂的长期逻辑没有发生改变，全球落实到国内的制冷剂生产配额约束依然存在，且 2026 年是第 二组发展中国家氢氟碳化物配额基准期的最后一年，后期进入配额约束的国家将进一步增多，无论是全球还是国内， 生产端的供给限制依然存在，制冷剂仍然具有头部定价权和配额壁垒，因而从长周期维度依然看好制冷剂的涨价。2 月底制冷剂行业迎来 2026 年的三代制冷剂的整体涨价，其中 R134a 报价上调 1000 元，R32 报价上调 500 元，R125 报 价上调 1000 元，R410 报价上调 500 元，制冷剂即将迎来国内需求旺季，整体价格上行调整依然具有行业基础。 短期制冷剂及空调出口受到中东局势的小幅度影响，但影响仍然可控，后期预估将有修复。制冷剂及产业链形成了两 类出口 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the chemical raw materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The fluorochemical industry is showing signs of recovery, with a notable increase in prices for refrigerants and raw materials, driven by supply constraints and rising demand [4][23] - The market for refrigerants is expected to experience a new round of price increases, despite short-term challenges posed by geopolitical factors in the Middle East [4][23] - The overall sentiment in the fluorochemical sector remains optimistic, with potential for significant growth across various segments, including high-end fluorinated materials and fine chemicals [23] Summary by Sections 1. Fluorochemical Market Overview - The average market price for wet fluorite (97%) is 3,393 CNY/ton, reflecting a 0.18% increase week-on-week, but a 9.25% decrease year-on-year [18] - The supply of fluorite is tight due to environmental inspections and production slowdowns in key regions, which is expected to support prices [19] 2. Refrigerant Pricing Trends - As of March 13, 2026, the prices for various refrigerants are as follows: - R32: 63,500 CNY/ton (domestic), 62,500 CNY/ton (export) - R125: 55,000 CNY/ton (domestic), 51,000 CNY/ton (export) - R134a: 58,500 CNY/ton (domestic), 58,000 CNY/ton (export) - R22: 17,500 CNY/ton (domestic), 15,500 CNY/ton (export) [20][21] - The market is witnessing a gradual recovery in prices for refrigerants, with R125 showing a 7.84% increase in domestic pricing [20][21] 3. Industry Dynamics - The fluorochemical index has decreased by 2.1% in the week of March 9-13, 2026, underperforming against major indices such as the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 [36] - The overall market sentiment is positive, with expectations for a rebound in prices as demand from downstream sectors increases [22][23] 4. Recommended Stocks - Key stocks to watch include: - Jinshi Resources (fluorite) - Juhua Co. (refrigerants, fluororesins) - Sanmei Co. (refrigerants) - Haohua Technology (refrigerants, fluororesins, fine fluorochemicals) [10][23]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the chemical raw materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The fluorochemical industry is showing signs of recovery, with a notable increase in prices for refrigerants and raw materials, indicating a potential upward trend in market conditions [4][23] - The demand for refrigerants remains resilient despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, suggesting that prices may see a new round of increases [4][23] - The industry is entering a long-term prosperity cycle, with significant growth potential across the entire fluorochemical value chain, from raw materials like fluorite to high-end fluorinated materials and fine chemicals [23] Summary by Sections 1. Fluorochemical Market Overview - Fluorite prices have shown a slight recovery, with the average market price for 97% wet fluorite at 3,393 CNY/ton as of March 13, 2026, reflecting a 0.18% increase from the previous week [18] - The average price for March 2026 is 3,339 CNY/ton, down 4.08% compared to the average price in 2025 [18] 2. Refrigerant Market Trends - As of March 13, 2026, the prices for various refrigerants are as follows: R32 at 63,500 CNY/ton, R125 at 55,000 CNY/ton (up 7.84%), and R134a at 58,500 CNY/ton [20][21] - The external trade prices for R32 and R125 are 62,500 CNY/ton and 51,000 CNY/ton, respectively, with R125 showing a stable trend [21] - The market is experiencing a mild recovery in demand, with companies maintaining normal inventory levels and focusing on essential purchases [22] 3. Beneficiary Companies - Recommended stocks include: Jinshi Resources (fluorite), Juhua Co. (refrigerants, fluororesins), Sanmei Co. (refrigerants), and Haohua Technology (refrigerants, fluororesins, fine fluorochemicals) [10][23] - Other beneficiary companies include Dongyangguang, Yonghe Co., Dongyue Group, and Xinzhoubang [10][23]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of environmental policies on the refrigerant industry, particularly focusing on the transition from HFCs (hydrofluorocarbons) due to regulatory frameworks like the Montreal Protocol and the Kigali Amendment, which impose strict quotas and timelines for phasing out these substances [4][5]. Group 1: Regulatory Framework and Supply Constraints - The refrigerant industry has evolved through four generations, with the first generation already phased out globally and developed countries having eliminated the second generation. Developing countries began the phase-out process in 2015, and the third generation (HFCs) is now in the early stages of elimination [4]. - Starting in 2024, China will enter a quota system for HFCs, with production quotas set at 748,500 tons, 791,900 tons, and 797,800 tons for the years 2024 to 2026, respectively. The internal production quotas are 342,300 tons, 389,600 tons, and 394,100 tons for the same years, indicating a stable total production quota for HFCs [4]. - The supply constraints for HFCs are expected to persist, with a strong likelihood of continued restrictions on production due to the quotas established under the Montreal Protocol, which will begin reducing HFC usage in 2029 [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Price Trends - Since the implementation of HFC quotas in 2024, the prices of third-generation refrigerants have risen significantly, with price differences for R32, R125, and R134a increasing by 79%, 37%, and 51%, respectively, by the end of 2025 compared to the end of 2024 [5]. - The domestic HFC market is expected to maintain high price levels, with inventory levels dropping to historical lows by Q1 2025, following a rapid consumption of high inventory levels. This low inventory environment is anticipated to support the continued high demand for mainstream HFC products like R32 [5]. Group 3: Demand Growth and Replacement Needs - The demand for refrigerants is projected to improve steadily, with downstream demand for R32, R125, and R134a expected to reach 100%, 70%, and 72% respectively by 2025. The production of air conditioners and automobiles in China has remained stable, contributing to this demand [6]. - Government subsidies and consumption-boosting policies are expected to stimulate sales of air conditioners and automobiles, further driving the demand for refrigerants [6]. - The production quota for R22, a second-generation refrigerant, has been reduced from 274,000 tons in 2018 to 146,000 tons by 2026, with stricter limits anticipated from 2027 to 2030, which will likely create additional demand for third-generation refrigerants as replacements [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the fluorochemical industry [6][9]. Core Insights - The fluorochemical industry is experiencing a positive trend with the production of air conditioners showing a year-on-year increase starting from April 2026, supported by a recovery in domestic demand and installation needs driven by housing projects [3][5]. - Prices of fluorinated polymers are on the rise due to cost support and supply-demand improvements, with notable increases in PTFE and PVDF prices [4][5]. - The report highlights the ongoing demand for refrigerants, particularly R32, R134a, and R125, which are expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance, leading to potential price increases [5][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - As of February 27, 2026, the fluorochemical index rose by 4.35% compared to January, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.26% [1][16]. - The National Chemical Fluorochemical Price Index reported a slight increase of 0.21% for fluorochemicals [18]. 2. Refrigerant Market Review - The prices of major refrigerants have increased, with R32 rising to 61,500-62,500 CNY/ton and R134a to 58,000 CNY/ton [2][23]. - The report notes a significant increase in the long-term contract prices for R32 and R410A, indicating a bullish market outlook [22]. 3. Demand from Liquid Cooling - The report emphasizes the growing demand for fluorinated liquids and refrigerants driven by the shift towards liquid cooling technologies in data centers, which are expected to see substantial market growth [56][67]. - The liquid cooling market in China is projected to exceed 100 billion CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 51.4% [63]. 4. Refrigerant Quota for 2026 - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has announced the refrigerant quotas for 2026, indicating a slight increase in production quotas for R32, R125, and R134a, while maintaining strict controls on HCFCs [69][70]. - The report anticipates that the tightening of refrigerant quotas will support long-term price stability and profitability for leading companies in the sector [5][69]. 5. Air Conditioning Production Data - Air conditioning production is expected to see a year-on-year increase starting in April 2026, with a recovery in domestic demand and installation needs [3][81]. - The report notes that the overall production of air conditioners in March 2026 showed a decline of 6.1% year-on-year, but is projected to recover in the following months [81].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the fluorochemical industry [6][9]. Core Views - The fluorochemical industry is experiencing a positive trend with the production of air conditioners showing a year-on-year increase starting from April 2026, supported by a recovery in domestic demand and installation needs driven by housing projects [3][5]. - Prices of fluorinated polymers are on the rise due to cost support and supply-demand improvements, with notable increases in PTFE and PVDF prices [4][5]. - The report highlights the ongoing demand for refrigerants, particularly R32, R134a, and R125, which are expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance, leading to potential price increases [5][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - As of February 27, 2026, the fluorochemical index rose by 4.35% compared to the end of January, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 Index [1][16]. 2. Refrigerant Market Review - The prices of major refrigerants have increased, with R32 rising to 61,500-62,500 CNY/ton and R125 to 51,000-56,000 CNY/ton as of February 28, 2026 [2][23]. 3. Liquid Cooling Demand - The report emphasizes the growing need for liquid cooling solutions in data centers, which is expected to drive demand for fluorinated liquids and refrigerants [56][67]. 4. Refrigerant Quota Announcement - The 2026 refrigerant quota has been announced, with a slight increase in production quotas for R32, R125, and R134a, indicating a sustained positive outlook for refrigerant products [68][70]. 5. Air Conditioner Production Data - Air conditioner production is projected to show a year-on-year increase starting in April 2026, with March production figures indicating a decline of 1.5% year-on-year [3][81]. 6. Fluorinated Polymer Prices - Prices for fluorinated polymers such as PTFE and PVDF are expected to recover, driven by low inventory levels and supply constraints [4][5]. 7. Key Company Performance Predictions - Companies like Juhua Co., Dongyue Group, and Sanmei Co. are highlighted as key players with strong earnings growth potential, maintaining an "Outperform" rating [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the refrigerant industry, specifically for HFCs [5] Core Insights - The refrigerant industry is expected to maintain high prosperity due to supply quota constraints and steadily increasing demand. The transition to quota production for HFCs in China is a significant factor driving this outlook [1][4] Supply Side Analysis - Environmental policies are driving the iteration of refrigerants, with HFCs entering a quota production phase starting in 2024. The production quotas for HFCs from 2024 to 2026 are set at approximately 748,500 tons, 791,900 tons, and 797,800 tons respectively, indicating a stable supply environment [1][19] - The supply of HFCs is expected to remain constrained due to the quota system, which is likely to continue until 2029 when reductions in HFC usage will begin [1][21] Demand Side Analysis - The demand for HFCs is projected to grow steadily, supported by ongoing government subsidies and policies aimed at boosting consumption in sectors such as air conditioning and automotive. By 2025, the demand for R32, R125, and R134a is expected to reach 100%, 70%, and 72% respectively in their respective applications [3][43] - The exit of second-generation refrigerants is anticipated to create additional demand for third-generation refrigerants, particularly HFCs, as they become the primary choice in new appliances [3][4] Price Trends - Since the implementation of the HFC quota in 2024, prices for HFCs have risen significantly, with R32, R125, and R134a experiencing price increases of 153%, 53%, and 55% respectively compared to the end of 2023. The price differences among these products are at historical highs [2][26] - The report forecasts that the low inventory levels will continue to support high prices for HFCs, with expectations of sustained high demand for R32 and other mainstream HFC products [2][32] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on key players in the HFCs market, including Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., Yonghe Co., Dongyue Group, and Haohua Technology, as they are well-positioned to benefit from the favorable market conditions [4][22]

Summary of Liquid Cooling Industry Report Industry Overview - The report focuses on the liquid cooling industry, driven by the increasing demand for cooling solutions in data centers due to rising chip power density and heat dissipation requirements [1][2][4]. Key Insights - **Chip Power Density and Cooling Evolution**: The evolution of chip manufacturing and cooling paths has gone through three stages: 1. 2000-2010: Performance enhancement through increased power. 2. 2010-2018: Performance improvement via multi-core structures. 3. 2018-present: Renewed focus on power increase as marginal advantages of multi-core diminish [2]. - **AI Data Center Growth**: AI computing center installations are expected to grow from approximately 7GW in 2024 to nearly 80GW by 2028, indicating a significant increase in cooling demand [4]. - **Cooling System Efficiency**: The cooling system plays a crucial role in energy efficiency management in data centers, with PUE (Power Usage Effectiveness) being a key metric. A 10°C increase in server temperature can reduce reliability and lifespan by 50% [2][3]. Cooling Solutions - **Mainstream Cooling Solutions**: The primary cooling methods are categorized into: 1. Spray cooling 2. Cold plate cooling 3. Immersion cooling [5]. - **Cold Plate Cooling**: - Typically used in high-density data centers, with a focus on achieving high heat dissipation efficiency. - The technology can be further divided into single-phase (mainly using deionized water) and two-phase systems (using refrigerants) [6][7]. - **Immersion Cooling**: - Divided into single-phase and phase-change immersion cooling, with different refrigerants and suppliers involved [9][10]. Refrigerants and Materials - **Refrigerant Choices**: - Deionized water is the most common choice for single-phase systems, while fluorinated refrigerants are preferred for two-phase systems due to their superior heat transfer capabilities [7][8]. - Fluorinated refrigerants like R32 and R134a are priced around 50,000-60,000 CNY per ton, significantly higher than water but competitive against silicone oils [8]. - **Silicone Oil vs. Fluorinated Liquids**: - Silicone oil is cost-effective (1/8-1/10 the price of fluorinated liquids) but has limitations in cooling performance and flow characteristics [16][14]. - Fluorinated liquids are considered the ultimate solution due to their stability and low dielectric constant, although they pose environmental risks [32][22]. Industry Trends and Innovations - **NVIDIA's Influence**: NVIDIA's new architecture is expected to accelerate the iteration of cooling solutions, necessitating close monitoring of the introduction of fluorinated liquids into cold plate systems [34]. - **Emerging Materials**: - Perfluoropolyethers are being explored as biodegradable alternatives to traditional fluorinated compounds, with varying synthesis methods affecting cost and yield [23][24]. - The industry is also seeing advancements in synthetic hydrocarbons, particularly alpha-olefins, which offer lower viscosity and better thermal stability [17]. Conclusion - The liquid cooling industry is poised for significant growth driven by the demands of AI data centers and the need for efficient cooling solutions. Continuous innovation in materials and technologies will be crucial in meeting the evolving requirements of high-performance computing environments [34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the basic chemical industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector in the near term [1]. Core Insights - The recent price adjustments for refrigerants indicate a trend of "stabilization for second-generation and widespread increases for third-generation" products, with significant price hikes observed across various refrigerants [1]. - The market is expected to recover post-holiday, with a tight supply situation for certain refrigerants, particularly R125, as companies prioritize internal production needs [6]. - The report highlights the importance of regulatory changes, such as the new quota management for HFCs, which will further constrain supply and support price increases [6]. - The overall sentiment is optimistic regarding the long-term market conditions for third-generation refrigerants, driven by a combination of regulatory support, recovering domestic demand, and improved export opportunities [6]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The basic chemical industry consists of 496 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 64,480.26 billion [3]. - The circulating market value stands at about 57,850.39 billion [3]. Price Trends - As of February 28, prices for major third-generation refrigerants have increased significantly, with R32 and R134a rising to 61,500-62,500 and 57,000-58,000 yuan per ton, respectively [1]. Company Forecasts - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for key companies, with "Juhua Co., Ltd." (600160.SH) projected to have an EPS of 2.45 yuan in 2026, with a strong buy rating [3]. Market Performance - The absolute performance of the basic chemical sector shows a 2.4% increase over one month, 28.8% over six months, and 47.9% over twelve months, indicating strong growth [4].