积极完善上下游产业链一体化布局。报告期内，公司稳步推进各项目建设，福建东莹已建成的1500 吨/ 年六氟磷酸锂产能处于试生产及技改阶段。浙江三美5000 吨/年聚全氟乙丙烯及5000 吨/年聚偏氟乙烯 项目、年智能分装3,500 万瓶罐制冷剂生产线及配套设施项目已完成主体工程，处于设备安装阶段。同 时，公司稳步推进浙江三美的科创中心（办公大楼）、AHF 技改项目、催化剂项目、中试基地项目、 环氧氯丙烷项目，重庆嘉利合氟化工一体化（一期）项目、甲烷氯化物及四氯乙烯技改项目等。 投资建议：供给强约束叠加行业格局集中背景下，二、三代制冷剂正处于景气上行周期，公司作为制冷 剂头部企业，盈利中枢有望持续上行。预计公司2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为21.47、26.55、31.85 亿 元，同比增速分别为+175.83%、+23.65%、+19.93%，对应PE 分别为16X、13X、11X。维持"强烈推 荐"评级。 风险提示：1.三代制冷剂政策变化；2.下游空调、汽车产量不及预期；3.原材料价格波动；4.新项目进展 不及预期等。 公司制冷剂产品均价持续增长，1H25 业绩同比大幅增长。国家对第二、三代氟制冷剂均 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年08月27日 东岳集团（00189.HK） 优于大市 制冷剂价格快速上涨，2025 年上半年业绩大幅提升 2025 年上半年实现归母净利润 7.79 亿元，同比增长 153%。2025 年 8 月 26 日，公司发布 2025 年半年报，根据公司公告，2025 年上半年公司实现营收 74.63 亿元，同比增长 2.79%；实现归母净利润 7.79 亿元，同比增长 153.28%； 实现销售毛利率 29.11%，同比提升 9.28pct；实现销售净利率 14.16%，同比 提升 8.72pct。2025 年上半年，有机硅、含氟高分子市场需求较弱，竞争压 力较大，产品价格及盈利水平较低；但制冷剂受配额制影响，价格及利润率 快速上涨，公司制冷剂板块业绩大幅增长。 制冷剂价格持续提升，公司制冷剂板块业绩快速增长。东岳集团为我国 R22 与 R32 生产能力与配额量的龙头企业，公司拥有约 22 万吨 R22 产能，约 6 万吨 R32 产能。配额方面，根据生态环境部，2025 年公司拥有 4.39 万吨 R22 配额，约占总配额的 29.46%，为国内最大配额；拥有 5.63 万吨 R32 ...

国内外政策催化大炼化行业关注度提升。根据中国石油和化工网信息，韩国石化产业开 工率持续下行，行业供应过剩问题亟待解决。韩国产业通商资源部决定对韩国十家最大石化 企业已同意进行业务重组，包括大幅削减270-370万吨石脑油裂解产能，并且政府要求各公 司必须在年底前提交具体的减产方案。同时，我国石化行业"反内卷"预期提升，有望对200 万吨及以下炼油产能以及老旧设备进行出清，进一步提高了炼化行业的关注度。 2.核心观点 民爆行业："十四五"收官在即，行业整合加速；雅鲁藏布江项目、三峡水运新通道、浙 赣粤运河等项目有望拉动内需增长；"一带一路"战略持续推进，有望带动民爆企业开拓海外 需求。建议关注：易普力、江南化工、广东宏大、国泰集团和凯龙股份等。 农药：行业重点企业发生安全生产事故，或将对行业供给带来扰动。建议关注：扬农化 工、兴发集团等。 太平洋近日发布化工行业周报：根据百川盈孚数据，本周草甘膦下游需求良好，海外非 洲等地区制剂订单持续释放，工厂水剂、颗粒剂订单充足。截至8月24日，草甘膦价格为 26899元/吨，较上周价格上涨200元/吨；毛利为3964.1元/吨，较上周上涨239元/吨。 以下为研究报告摘要 ...

2025 年 08 月 25 日 行业周报 看好/维持 基础化工 基础化工 化工周报（8/18-8/24）： 制冷剂、草甘膦等高景气延续，国内外政策催化大炼化行业关注度提升 ◼ 走势比较 (10%) 4% 18% 32% 46% 60% 24/8/26 24/11/6 25/1/17 25/3/30 25/6/10 25/8/21 基础化工 沪深300 相关研究报告 <<蓝晓科技（300487.SZ）：业绩稳健 增长，生命科学板块业务值得期 待>>--2025-08-24 <<业绩符合预期，内蒙新产能贡献显 著>>--2025-08-24 << 化 工 新 材 料 周 报 （ 20250818- 20250824）：生物航煤、制冷剂价格 上涨，普鲁士蓝材料等价格回落>>-- 2025-08-24 证券分析师：王亮 E-MAIL：wangl@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190522120001 证券分析师：王海涛 E-MAIL：wanght@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190523010001 报告摘要 1.重点行业和产品情况跟踪 草甘膦等农药价格持续上涨。根据百川盈孚数据，本周草甘膦下 ...

Group 1 - Glyphosate and other pesticide prices continue to rise, with glyphosate price at 26,699 CNY/ton as of August 17, up 300 CNY/ton from the previous week, and gross profit at 3,725.1 CNY/ton, up 317.9 CNY/ton [1][2] - Glyphosate weekly production is 0.7 million tons, down 16.24% from the previous week, and inventory is 28,500 tons, a decrease of 0.08 million tons [2] - Prices of R32 and R134a refrigerants are increasing due to steady demand driven by high summer temperatures, with R134a at 51,000 CNY/ton, up 500 CNY/ton, and R32 at 57,500 CNY/ton, up 1,000 CNY/ton [2] Group 2 - Polyester filament and viscose staple fiber prices have slightly rebounded, with polyester POY at 6,775 CNY/ton, up 125 CNY/ton, and FDY at 7,100 CNY/ton, up 150 CNY/ton [3] - Viscose staple fiber price is 12,950 CNY/ton, up 100 CNY/ton, with manufacturers operating at high capacity due to improved demand [3] Group 3 - The civil explosives industry is experiencing accelerated consolidation as the "14th Five-Year Plan" approaches its end, with projects like the Yarlung Tsangpo project expected to boost domestic demand [4] - The "Belt and Road" initiative is anticipated to help civil explosive companies expand overseas demand, with companies like Yipuli, Jiangnan Chemical, and Guangdong Hongda recommended for attention [4] Group 4 - Safety production accidents at key pesticide companies may disrupt industry supply, with companies like Yangnong Chemical and Xingfa Group suggested for monitoring [5]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the basic chemical industry, particularly for refrigerants and glyphosate, which are experiencing high demand and price increases [1][5]. Core Insights - The glyphosate market is showing strong demand, with prices rising to 26,699 CNY/ton, an increase of 300 CNY/ton from the previous week, while the profit margin has also improved [3][17]. - Refrigerant prices, particularly for R134a and R32, have increased due to steady demand driven by high summer temperatures and supply constraints from quota policies [4][27]. - The polyester filament and viscose staple fiber markets are witnessing slight price rebounds as manufacturers reduce production to restore profitability [4][29]. Summary by Sections (1) Key Chemical Product Price Tracking - Glyphosate prices have risen to 26,699 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase of 300 CNY/ton, while production has decreased by 16.24% to 0.7 million tons [3][17]. - Prices for polyester filament (POY, FDY, DTY) have increased slightly, with POY averaging 6,775 CNY/ton, up 125 CNY/ton [4][29]. (2) Polyurethane: MDI and TDI Price Trends - MDI prices have decreased due to weak demand from end-users, with the average price for polymer MDI in South China at 15,700 CNY/ton, down 1.88% [15]. - TDI prices have also dropped, with the average price in East China at 16,250 CNY/ton, down 2.99% [15]. (3) Agricultural Chemicals: Glyphosate Price Increase - Glyphosate prices continue to rise, supported by good downstream demand and tight supply, with a current price of 26,699 CNY/ton [17]. - The profit margin for glyphosate has increased to 3,725.1 CNY/ton, reflecting a rise of 317.9 CNY/ton from the previous week [17]. (4) Fluorochemicals: Refrigerant Price Increases - Prices for R134a and R32 have increased due to strong seasonal demand, with R134a at 51,000 CNY/ton and R32 at 57,500 CNY/ton [27]. - The supply of refrigerants is constrained by quota policies, leading to a tight market situation [27]. (5) Tire Industry: Raw Material Price Trends - Prices for natural rubber and synthetic rubber have shown slight increases, with natural rubber at 15,017 CNY/ton, up 1.24% [29]. - The prices of accelerators and anti-aging agents have also increased, indicating a positive trend in the tire industry [29].

Group 1 - The chemical sector experienced a significant rise on August 15, with the chemical ETF (516020) increasing by 1.51% [1] - Key stocks in the sector included Lianhong Xinke, which surged over 7%, and Xinjubang and Jinfakeji, both rising over 6% [1] - The basic chemical sector attracted over 7 billion yuan in net inflows, ranking fifth among 30 major sectors [2][3] Group 2 - Recent retail prices for refrigerants like R32 and R227ea have been rising, with R32 expected to average 56,000 to 58,000 yuan per ton from August to October [3] - The chemical ETF (516020) is currently at a low valuation, with a price-to-book ratio of 2.07, indicating potential for long-term investment [3] - Analysts suggest that the "anti-involution" trend in the chemical industry may lead to the elimination of outdated production capacity, improving the competitive landscape and profitability [4] Group 3 - The chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI segmented chemical industry index, covering various sub-sectors and focusing on large-cap stocks [4] - Investors can also consider chemical ETF linked funds for exposure to the chemical sector [4]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Bullish" rating for the refrigerant industry, indicating a positive outlook for the next six months [75]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the prices of third-generation refrigerants have been steadily increasing since 2025, with significant growth in the first half of the year. The production quotas for second-generation refrigerants are being reduced, while the total production quota for third-generation refrigerants remains at baseline levels, leading to a tightening supply-demand relationship [7][69]. - Companies such as Juhua Co., Ltd. and Sanmei Co., Ltd. are expected to see substantial profit increases, reflecting a high level of industry prosperity [69]. Summary by Sections Refrigerant Prices and Production - As of July 31, 2025, the prices for third-generation refrigerants R32, R125, and R134a are 55,000 CNY/ton, 45,500 CNY/ton, and 50,000 CNY/ton, respectively, showing increases of 4.76%, 0%, and 2.04% compared to the end of April [7][16]. - The production of R32, R134a, and R125 in July 2025 has increased by 49.68%, 66.11%, and 32.74% year-on-year, respectively [17]. Market Trends - The report notes a decline in air conditioning production in August 2025, with expected further declines in September and October, with production figures of 11.44 million units, 10.66 million units, and 12.36 million units, reflecting year-on-year decreases of -2.79%, -12.70%, and -12.10% [39]. - The report also mentions a decrease in refrigerator production, with August 2025 figures at 7.62 million units, down 9.50% year-on-year [40]. Company Performance - Zhongxin Fluorine Materials expects a net profit of 4.76 million to 6.08 million CNY for the first half of 2025, recovering from a loss of 23.13 million CNY in the same period last year [60]. - Yonghe Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 2.445 billion CNY for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12.39%, with a net profit of 271 million CNY, up 140.82% [63]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the refrigerant industry and those with a complete industrial chain, such as Juhua Co., Ltd. and Sanmei Co., Ltd., as well as companies related to fluorine chemical raw materials like Jinshi Resources [69].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" [6][4]. Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in net profit for H1, achieving a year-on-year growth of 141% to reach 270 million RMB, driven by strong refrigerant prices and continued industry demand [1][4]. - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing high demand for refrigerants, leading to an upward adjustment in profit forecasts for the years 2025 to 2027 [4][15]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1, the company achieved revenue of 2.45 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 12%, with a net profit of 270 million RMB, reflecting a 141% increase [1][6]. - Q2 net profit was 170 million RMB, up 131% year-on-year and 79% quarter-on-quarter, slightly exceeding expectations due to higher refrigerant prices [1][4]. Market Conditions - The refrigerant market remains strong, with prices for key products like R32 and R134a increasing by 8.6% and 3.1% respectively from the end of Q2 [3][4]. - The company is advancing its fourth-generation refrigerant projects, which are expected to enhance its competitive position in the fluorochemical sector [3][4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for the company has been revised upwards, with expected net profits of 670 million RMB, 790 million RMB, and 900 million RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting increases of 48%, 43%, and 40% compared to previous estimates [4][15]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 29.82 RMB, based on a 21x PE ratio for 2025 [4][7].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a high level of optimism for the refrigerants and glyphosate sectors, suggesting a continuation of high demand and price stability in these markets [7][12]. Core Insights - The glyphosate market is experiencing sustained price increases due to strong downstream demand, particularly from regions like Europe and Africa, leading to tight supply conditions [21][25]. - The refrigerant market is benefiting from seasonal demand spikes and supply constraints due to quota policies, which are supporting higher prices for products like R32 and R134a [28][4]. - The report highlights the potential for growth in the civil explosives sector driven by infrastructure projects and the Belt and Road Initiative, recommending specific companies for investment [5]. Summary by Sections (1) Key Chemical Product Price Tracking - Glyphosate prices rose to 26,399 CNY/ton, up 100 CNY/ton from the previous week, with a weekly production of 0.9 million tons, down 18.5% [21][25]. - Refrigerant prices for R22 increased to 35,500 CNY/ton, R134a to 50,500 CNY/ton, and R32 to 56,500 CNY/ton, reflecting strong demand and tight supply [4][28]. (2) Polyurethane: MDI and TDI Price Movements - MDI prices increased significantly, with the average price for polymer MDI in South China at 16,000 CNY/ton, up 2.24% from the previous week [19]. - TDI prices in East China decreased to 16,750 CNY/ton, down 3.46% due to seasonal demand weakness [19]. (3) Agricultural Chemicals: Glyphosate and Fertilizer Price Trends - Glyphosate's profitability decreased slightly to 3,407.2 CNY/ton, while the market remains tight with reduced inventory levels [21][25]. - Urea prices rose to 1,779 CNY/ton, and potassium chloride prices increased to 3,285 CNY/ton, driven by export policies and supply constraints [25][27]. (4) Fluorochemicals: Refrigerant Price Increases - The report notes that R32 and R134a prices have risen due to increased demand from high temperatures and limited supply flexibility [28]. - The price of raw materials like fluorspar and hydrofluoric acid remained stable, indicating a balanced supply-demand scenario in the upstream market [28].