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一周流动性观察 | 跨年扰动来临 资金宽松的格局大概率不会改变
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-12-29 08:25
Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 482.3 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous rate, resulting in a net injection of 415 billion yuan after 67.3 billion yuan of reverse repos matured [1] - In the previous week, the net withdrawal from 7-day reverse repos was 34.8 billion yuan, while the PBOC conducted a 1-year Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation of 400 billion yuan, exceeding the previous amount by 100 billion yuan [1] - The average rate of DR001 is expected to drop below 1.3% for the month, indicating a continued loose monetary environment despite potential year-end disturbances [2] Group 2 - The PBOC's monetary policy committee emphasized the need for continued moderate easing and enhanced counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments to support stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery [3] - Analysts predict that the first quarter of 2026 will see a path of easing through reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and structural interest rate reductions, with a potential RRR cut of 50 basis points releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in liquidity [3] - The focus of monetary policy will shift towards ensuring the smooth transmission of interest rates and adjusting the relationships between various asset rates, aiming for an overall moderate easing goal [3]