利率走廊收窄的债市含义 20251118 理想中的短期利率走廊应具备以下特征：一是能够有效控制市场基准利率如 DR007 等波动区间，使其围绕政策目标稳定运行；二是具有灵活且透明的调控 机制，以便及时应对市场变化；三是涵盖广泛，包括商业银行及非银机构，以 确保全面覆盖金融体系各类参与者。 可以借鉴美联储经验。在 2008 年次贷危 机前，美联储通过日常 OMO 操作使实际联邦基金有效利用 EFFF 围绕目标波动， 实现精准管控。次贷危机后，由于 QE 导致银行间流动性过剩，美联储创设 IORB 与 ONRRP 组成新的地板系统，通过这些工具调整市场流动性。因此，我 国央行可考虑类似方式，通过日常精准投放与新型工具组合，提高资金面稳定 性与预见性，从而增强金融服务实体经济效能。 收窄短期利率走廊会对债市产生哪些具体影响？ 潘功胜行长在十五规划学习材料中提到要收窄短期利率走廊的宽度，这对央行 货币政策操作和债市定价有何影响？ 潘功胜行长提到收窄短期利率走廊的宽度，这将对央行货币政策操作和债市定 价产生深远影响。目前，人民银行已初步形成以 7 天逆回购利率为基准政策利 率、DR007 为基准市场利率的货币政策调控框 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report From November 10 - 14, 2025, the central bank conducted net injections through short - term reverse repurchases. On November 17, an 800 - billion - yuan 6 - month买断式 reverse repurchase operation was carried out, with a net injection of 500 billion yuan for the month. From November 10 - 16, the net payment scale of government bonds increased, the yield to maturity of inter - bank certificates of deposit fluctuated within a narrow range, and the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market decreased slightly. From November 17 - 23, the expected net payment of government bonds is 410.57 billion yuan, and the maturity scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit is about 907 billion yuan. On November 14, the median durations of medium - long - term and short - term interest - rate style pure bond funds decreased week - on - week by 0.55 years and 0.85 years respectively [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Funds - **Fund Injections**: From November 10 - 14, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net injection of 62.62 billion yuan. On November 17, an 800 - billion - yuan 6 - month买断式 reverse repurchase was conducted, with a net injection of 500 billion yuan for the month. The 12 - billion - yuan treasury cash fixed - term deposit will mature on November 20. The central bank's injection pattern is stable, which helps stabilize the market's expectation of the funds [6]. - **Fund Fluctuations and Interest Rate Changes**: From November 10 - 14, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.42% and 1.47% respectively, up 10.3 and 10.0 basis points compared to November 3 - 7. The average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.49% and 1.50% respectively, up 6.5 and 4.1 basis points compared to November 3 - 7. Tax payment and large - scale net payment of government bonds will affect liquidity [7]. - **Government Bond Net Payment**: From November 10 - 16, the net payment of government bonds was about 424.8 billion yuan, an increase of about 388 billion yuan compared to November 3 - 9. From November 17 - 23, the expected net payment is 410.57 billion yuan [2][7]. 3.2 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - **Yield Fluctuations**: As of November 14, 2025, the yields to maturity of 1 - month and 3 - month inter - bank certificates of deposit were 1.4950% and 1.5750% respectively, up 2.0 and 1.5 basis points compared to November 7. The yield to maturity of 1 - year inter - bank certificates of deposit was 1.6350%, up 0.5 basis points compared to November 7 [8]. - **Net Financing and Maturity Pressure**: From November 10 - 16, the net financing of inter - bank certificates of deposit was about - 4.16 billion yuan. From November 17 - 23, the expected maturity repayment is 907 billion yuan, with increased pressure on renewal [8]. 3.3 Institutional Behavior - **Leverage Ratio of the Inter - bank Bond Market**: From November 10 - 14, the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.26%, lower than the 107.73% in the period from November 3 - 7 [9]. - **Duration Changes of Bond Funds**: On November 14, the median duration (MA5) of medium - long - term interest - rate style pure bond funds was 4.83 years, down 0.55 years week - on - week, at the 90.8% quantile since early 2022. The median duration (MA5) of short - term interest - rate style pure bond funds was 1.83 years, down 0.85 years week - on - week, at the 54.8% quantile since early 2022 [9].

申万宏源证券认为，三季度新增"综合运用多种工具，保持社会融资条件相对宽松"。二季度对应表述 为"根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况，把握好政策实施的力度和节奏"。在当前社会融资规 模的主要支撑来自政府债券发行的背景下，此表述实际上从侧面凸显了货币政策正着力加强与财政政策 的协同配合。 华创证券分析称，本次货政报告释放出对于稳增长较强的信号，强化"内需主导"的稳增长诉求。政策基 调从"落实落细"适度宽松调整为"实施好"，不再仅强调存量政策效能释放，或不排除明年货币政策前置 发力的可能；资金方面虽删除"防空转"表述，强化利率传导、建立规律化的中长期资金投放模式，大幅 宽松的空间或也有限；实体融资方面，引导市场理性看待受债务置换等因素扰动下的信贷增速。 "基本面压力逐步显现下央行延续呵护才是常态，伴随税期以及双11等影响因素消失，资金价格仍旧会 回归低位稳定。伴随货币宽松预期逐渐发酵，存单利率可能向下突破震荡区间，建议在当前点位上延续 平配即可。"财通证券分析称。 本周（11月17日-21日）7天逆回购到期规模由4958亿元上升至11220亿元；周一央行将开展8000亿元6M 买断式逆回购操作，全月买断式逆回 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 159.5 billion yuan, with a bid amount and winning amount of 159.5 billion yuan, and the operation rate remained at 1.40% [1] - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) for short-term products showed a slight increase, with overnight Shibor unchanged at 1.3170%, 7-day Shibor rising by 0.80 basis points to 1.4260%, and 14-day Shibor increasing by 3.60 basis points to 1.5040% [1][2] Group 2 - In the interbank pledged repo market, the weighted average rates for 7-day and 14-day products showed slight divergence, with DR001 and R001 rates unchanged at 1.3141% and 1.3632%, respectively, while DR007 and R007 rates increased by 1.0 basis points and decreased by 0.9 basis points, respectively [5] - The trading volume for DR001 increased by 69.9 billion yuan, while that for R001 decreased by 133.8 billion yuan [5] Group 3 - The overall funding situation was balanced and slightly loose, with overnight transactions showing a weighted average rate of 1.40% and 7-day transactions at 1.43% [10] - As of 5:30 PM on October 21, there were 109 interbank certificates of deposit issued, with an actual issuance amount of 187.36 billion yuan [10][11]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China conducted a 435 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous level, resulting in a net injection of 435 billion yuan into the market [1] - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) for short-term instruments remained stable, with a slight decline in the 7-day Shibor [1][2] - The overnight Shibor increased by 0.10 basis points to 1.3160%, while the 7-day Shibor decreased by 0.90 basis points to 1.4140% [2][3] Group 2 - In the interbank pledged repo market, various rates showed narrow fluctuations, with DR007's transaction share rising to 4.5% [5] - The weighted average rates for DR001 and R001 decreased by 0.0 basis points and 0.2 basis points, respectively, with transaction volumes dropping by 901 billion yuan and 456 billion yuan [5] - The overall funding environment was balanced and slightly loose, with overnight rates declining further after the open market operations [10] Group 3 - As of October 15, 120 interbank certificates of deposit were issued, with an actual issuance volume of 114.59 billion yuan [11] - The trading sentiment for primary certificates was generally average, while secondary certificates showed moderate trading sentiment with yields continuing the upward trend from the previous day [11] - The weighted average interest rates for various maturities showed slight increases compared to the previous day, indicating a tightening of spreads between different maturities [11] Group 4 - The People's Bank of China reported that by the end of September 2025, the total social financing scale was 437.08 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.7% [13] - The broad money supply (M2) reached 335.38 trillion yuan, growing by 8.4% year-on-year [13] - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans was approximately 3.1%, down about 40 basis points from the previous year, indicating a continued low interest rate environment [13]

Core Points - The People's Bank of China conducted a 910 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous level, resulting in a net injection of 910 billion yuan into the market [1][12] - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) showed slight fluctuations, with the 7-day and 14-day rates declining [1][2] - The overall funding environment is described as balanced and slightly loose, with various rates for overnight and term deposits showing a downward trend [9][10] Summary by Category Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China is set to conduct a 600 billion yuan buyout reverse repurchase operation on October 15, 2025, with a term of 6 months [12] Interest Rates - The overnight Shibor increased by 0.10 basis points to 1.3150%, while the 7-day Shibor decreased by 2.40 basis points to 1.4230%, and the 14-day Shibor decreased by 2.10 basis points to 1.4450% [1][2] - In the interbank pledged repo market, most rates showed slight declines, with the weighted average rates for overnight and 7-day repos at 1.3141% and 1.4314%, respectively [4] Market Sentiment - The funding market is characterized by a generally loose atmosphere, with overnight rates for deposits showing a downward trend, indicating a preference for liquidity among banks [9] - The issuance of interbank certificates of deposit reached 261.89 billion yuan on October 14, with trading sentiment described as moderate [10]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a strong opening on the first trading day after the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, with all three major indices rising. The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.65%, surpassing 3900 points, marking a new 10-year high [1][2] - The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index both rose over 1% [1] Sector Performance - The opening saw a collective surge in the non-ferrous metals and gold sectors, with notable stocks such as Shandong Gold and Sichuan Gold reaching new highs. The gold stock ETFs also saw significant gains, with one ETF rising by 7.43% and another by 9.64% [7][8] - Other sectors such as media and entertainment, transportation services, and tourism experienced pullbacks [2] Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation amounting to 612 billion yuan, maintaining the operation rate at 1.40% [3] Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong market opened high but saw a decline, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index both experiencing a drop of over 1%. The innovative drug sector faced significant pullbacks, with several companies dropping more than 5% [5] Gold Market Insights - The spot gold price surpassed $4000 per ounce, reaching a historical high, while COMEX gold futures rose by 1.42% to $3862.9 per ounce. The gold market is believed to be entering a "third wave" of price increases, driven by various geopolitical and economic factors [9][8] Nuclear Fusion Sector - The controlled nuclear fusion concept saw a strong rally, with several companies experiencing significant stock price increases. Recent advancements in fusion energy projects in China are contributing to positive market sentiment [11] Future Market Outlook - Several brokerages are optimistic about the overall market performance in the fourth quarter, highlighting a focus on technology sectors and specific cyclical stocks. The report suggests that technology growth will continue to be a key driver, with particular attention to AI applications and semiconductor manufacturing [12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - From September 22 - 26, 2025, the central bank net - withdrew funds through 7 - day reverse repurchase and conducted 14 - day reverse repurchase operations during the quarter - end period. MLF was incrementally renewed. The inter - bank funding market fluctuated significantly due to the quarter - end effect [2][6]. - The net payment scale of government bonds decreased from September 22 - 28, 2025, and the majority of inter - bank certificate of deposit (NCD) yields rose. The net financing of NCDs turned negative. The average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market increased, and the durations of medium - long - term and short - term interest - style pure bond funds both marginally increased [2][8][9]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Funding Market - **Central Bank Operations**: From September 22 - 26, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 2594 billion yuan, 14 - day reverse repurchase was 9000 billion yuan, and MLF had a net injection of 3000 billion yuan. On September 29 and 30, 7 - day reverse repurchases totaling 5166 billion yuan were due, and on October 9, 7 - day reverse repurchases of 12325 billion yuan and 14 - day reverse repurchases of 3000 billion yuan were due [6]. - **Funding Rate Fluctuations**: From September 22 - 26, 2025, the average values of DR001 and R001 decreased by 5.0 and 5.5 basis points respectively compared to September 15 - 19, while the average values of DR007 and R007 increased by 1.9 and 9.9 basis points respectively. The funding market loosened from September 22 - 23, fluctuated significantly from September 24 - 25, and the funding rate dropped significantly on September 26 [7]. - **Government Bond Net Payment**: From September 22 - 28, 2025, the net payment of government bonds was about 716 billion yuan, a decrease of about 3764 billion yuan compared to September 15 - 21. From September 29 - 30, the expected net payment was 2121 billion yuan [7]. 3.2 Inter - bank Certificate of Deposits - **Yield Changes**: As of September 26, 2025, the yields of 1M, 3M, and 1Y NCDs increased by 7.5, 1.0, and 1.0 basis points respectively compared to September 19 [8]. - **Net Financing**: From September 22 - 28, 2025, the net financing of NCDs was about - 1782 billion yuan, turning negative from 1295 billion yuan in September 15 - 21. The expected maturity repayment from September 29 - October 5 was 1688 billion yuan, and the expected maturity in October was 18443 billion yuan, significantly lower than 35470 billion yuan in September [8]. 3.3 Institutional Behavior - **Leverage Ratio**: From September 22 - 26, 2025, the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.65%, up from 107.32% in September 15 - 19 [9]. - **Bond Fund Duration**: On September 26, 2025, the median duration (MA5) of medium - long - term interest - style pure bond funds was 4.05 years, up 0.01 years week - on - week, at the 59.2% quantile since early 2022. The median duration (MA5) of short - term interest - style pure bond funds was 1.58 years, up 0.03 years week - on - week, at the 14.1% quantile since early 2022 [9].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 276.1 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous rate, resulting in a net withdrawal of 10.9 billion yuan after 287 billion yuan of reverse repos matured on the same day [1] - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) for short-term products declined, with the overnight Shibor down by 1.40 basis points to 1.4130%, the 7-day Shibor down by 0.40 basis points to 1.4620%, and the 14-day Shibor down by 10.80 basis points to 1.5670% [1][2] Group 2 - In the interbank pledged repo market, most products experienced narrow fluctuations, with the R007 transaction ratio rising to 7.9%. The weighted average rates for DR001 and R001 decreased by 1.4 basis points and 1.3 basis points, respectively, with transaction volumes decreasing by 199.7 billion yuan and 116.5 billion yuan [4] - The weighted average rates for DR007 and R007 fell by 1.3 basis points and 0.4 basis points, respectively, with transaction volumes increasing by 72.6 billion yuan and 96.5 billion yuan [4] Group 3 - The funding environment was balanced and slightly loose, with overnight transactions mainly occurring in the range of 1.50%-1.53%. The 7-day credit repo rates were around 1.55%, with transactions in the 1.52%-1.58% range [8] - A total of 110 interbank certificates of deposit were issued on September 23, with an actual issuance amount of 194.67 billion yuan [8] Group 4 - In the primary certificate of deposit market, except for the 1-month and 1-year maturities, all other maturities were due on working days. The 3-month to 9-month products saw active trading, with yields generally rising [9] - The 1-year to 1-month yield spread was 7.75 basis points, narrowing by 1 basis point compared to the previous day [9]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that "care" in monetary policy does not necessarily equate to interest rate cuts, and interest rate cuts do not always lead to increased debt issuance [5][17] - The adjustment of the 14-day reverse repo to a "multiple price bidding" format is seen as a continuation of previous monetary policy strategies, with limited incremental information being conveyed [6][10] - The central bank's recent actions indicate a strong continuity in monetary policy, with the 14-day reverse repo being used primarily as a tool to manage liquidity around holidays rather than signaling a shift towards looser monetary policy [5][10][17] Group 2 - The 14-day reverse repo is expected to have limited actual impact on the bond market, serving mainly as a tool for addressing liquidity needs during specific periods such as holidays [10][14] - The report notes that the actual weighted bidding rate for the 14-day reverse repo is likely to decline, but its influence on the central funding rates and the bond market remains limited due to its non-mainstream status [14][16] - The central bank's liquidity management strategy has been focused on maintaining a balance between inflows and outflows, with the aim of stabilizing funding fluctuations [9][16] Group 3 - Despite the central bank's current supportive stance on interbank liquidity, it does not imply a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy [17][19] - The report suggests that unless there are significant market fluctuations or rapid currency appreciation, the likelihood of further interest rate cuts within the year remains low [17][19] - The logic behind government bond trading is similar, with a low necessity to restart government bond purchases unless there is a significant downturn in the bond market [18][19]