10月9日，三大指数集体高开，沪指涨0.4%，深证成指涨0.53%，创业板指涨0.4%。开盘后震荡拉升，截至记者发稿，沪指涨0.65%，突破3900点续创10年 新高；深证成指、创业板指均涨逾1%。 | 名称 | 序号 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 1 | 3908.18 | 25.41 | 0.65% | | 深证成指 | 2 | 13675.70 | 149.19 | 1.10% | | 北证50 | 3 | 1526.40 | -2.23 | -0.15% | | 万得全A | 4 | 6405.80 | 56.86 | 0.90% | | 科创50 | 5 | 1553.13 | 57.84 | 3.87% | | 创业板指 | 6 | 3276.00 | 37.84 | 1.17% | | 沪深300 | 7 | 4683.51 | 42.81 | 0.92% | | 中证500 | 8 | 7501.50 | 89.13 | 1.20% | | 中证800 | 9 | 5159.28 | 51.02 | 1.0 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - From September 22 - 26, 2025, the central bank net - withdrew funds through 7 - day reverse repurchase and conducted 14 - day reverse repurchase operations during the quarter - end period. MLF was incrementally renewed. The inter - bank funding market fluctuated significantly due to the quarter - end effect [2][6]. - The net payment scale of government bonds decreased from September 22 - 28, 2025, and the majority of inter - bank certificate of deposit (NCD) yields rose. The net financing of NCDs turned negative. The average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market increased, and the durations of medium - long - term and short - term interest - style pure bond funds both marginally increased [2][8][9]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Funding Market - **Central Bank Operations**: From September 22 - 26, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 2594 billion yuan, 14 - day reverse repurchase was 9000 billion yuan, and MLF had a net injection of 3000 billion yuan. On September 29 and 30, 7 - day reverse repurchases totaling 5166 billion yuan were due, and on October 9, 7 - day reverse repurchases of 12325 billion yuan and 14 - day reverse repurchases of 3000 billion yuan were due [6]. - **Funding Rate Fluctuations**: From September 22 - 26, 2025, the average values of DR001 and R001 decreased by 5.0 and 5.5 basis points respectively compared to September 15 - 19, while the average values of DR007 and R007 increased by 1.9 and 9.9 basis points respectively. The funding market loosened from September 22 - 23, fluctuated significantly from September 24 - 25, and the funding rate dropped significantly on September 26 [7]. - **Government Bond Net Payment**: From September 22 - 28, 2025, the net payment of government bonds was about 716 billion yuan, a decrease of about 3764 billion yuan compared to September 15 - 21. From September 29 - 30, the expected net payment was 2121 billion yuan [7]. 3.2 Inter - bank Certificate of Deposits - **Yield Changes**: As of September 26, 2025, the yields of 1M, 3M, and 1Y NCDs increased by 7.5, 1.0, and 1.0 basis points respectively compared to September 19 [8]. - **Net Financing**: From September 22 - 28, 2025, the net financing of NCDs was about - 1782 billion yuan, turning negative from 1295 billion yuan in September 15 - 21. The expected maturity repayment from September 29 - October 5 was 1688 billion yuan, and the expected maturity in October was 18443 billion yuan, significantly lower than 35470 billion yuan in September [8]. 3.3 Institutional Behavior - **Leverage Ratio**: From September 22 - 26, 2025, the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.65%, up from 107.32% in September 15 - 19 [9]. - **Bond Fund Duration**: On September 26, 2025, the median duration (MA5) of medium - long - term interest - style pure bond funds was 4.05 years, up 0.01 years week - on - week, at the 59.2% quantile since early 2022. The median duration (MA5) of short - term interest - style pure bond funds was 1.58 years, up 0.03 years week - on - week, at the 14.1% quantile since early 2022 [9].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 276.1 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous rate, resulting in a net withdrawal of 10.9 billion yuan after 287 billion yuan of reverse repos matured on the same day [1] - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) for short-term products declined, with the overnight Shibor down by 1.40 basis points to 1.4130%, the 7-day Shibor down by 0.40 basis points to 1.4620%, and the 14-day Shibor down by 10.80 basis points to 1.5670% [1][2] Group 2 - In the interbank pledged repo market, most products experienced narrow fluctuations, with the R007 transaction ratio rising to 7.9%. The weighted average rates for DR001 and R001 decreased by 1.4 basis points and 1.3 basis points, respectively, with transaction volumes decreasing by 199.7 billion yuan and 116.5 billion yuan [4] - The weighted average rates for DR007 and R007 fell by 1.3 basis points and 0.4 basis points, respectively, with transaction volumes increasing by 72.6 billion yuan and 96.5 billion yuan [4] Group 3 - The funding environment was balanced and slightly loose, with overnight transactions mainly occurring in the range of 1.50%-1.53%. The 7-day credit repo rates were around 1.55%, with transactions in the 1.52%-1.58% range [8] - A total of 110 interbank certificates of deposit were issued on September 23, with an actual issuance amount of 194.67 billion yuan [8] Group 4 - In the primary certificate of deposit market, except for the 1-month and 1-year maturities, all other maturities were due on working days. The 3-month to 9-month products saw active trading, with yields generally rising [9] - The 1-year to 1-month yield spread was 7.75 basis points, narrowing by 1 basis point compared to the previous day [9]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that "care" in monetary policy does not necessarily equate to interest rate cuts, and interest rate cuts do not always lead to increased debt issuance [5][17] - The adjustment of the 14-day reverse repo to a "multiple price bidding" format is seen as a continuation of previous monetary policy strategies, with limited incremental information being conveyed [6][10] - The central bank's recent actions indicate a strong continuity in monetary policy, with the 14-day reverse repo being used primarily as a tool to manage liquidity around holidays rather than signaling a shift towards looser monetary policy [5][10][17] Group 2 - The 14-day reverse repo is expected to have limited actual impact on the bond market, serving mainly as a tool for addressing liquidity needs during specific periods such as holidays [10][14] - The report notes that the actual weighted bidding rate for the 14-day reverse repo is likely to decline, but its influence on the central funding rates and the bond market remains limited due to its non-mainstream status [14][16] - The central bank's liquidity management strategy has been focused on maintaining a balance between inflows and outflows, with the aim of stabilizing funding fluctuations [9][16] Group 3 - Despite the central bank's current supportive stance on interbank liquidity, it does not imply a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy [17][19] - The report suggests that unless there are significant market fluctuations or rapid currency appreciation, the likelihood of further interest rate cuts within the year remains low [17][19] - The logic behind government bond trading is similar, with a low necessity to restart government bond purchases unless there is a significant downturn in the bond market [18][19]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the recent monetary policy adjustments, particularly regarding the 14-day reverse repurchase agreements (OMO), indicate a protective stance rather than a shift towards marginal easing of monetary policy [2][5]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy Adjustments - On September 19, the central bank announced a change to the 14-day reverse repo bidding method to "multiple price bidding," but the central bank governor clarified on September 22 that this does not involve adjustments to short-term policies [2]. - The adjustment of the 14-day reverse repo aligns with previous strategies and does not signal a clear intention to lower interest rates, maintaining a consistent approach to monetary policy [3]. Market Impact - The actual pricing ability of the 14-day reverse repo in the bond market is limited, and it is likely to continue serving as a tool for addressing special periods such as holidays [4]. - Historical data shows that the central bank typically uses the 14-day reverse repo before major holidays, indicating its role in smoothing out liquidity around these times [4]. Future Outlook - Despite the central bank's current protective stance on interbank liquidity, it does not imply a shift towards more accommodative monetary policy [5]. - The likelihood of interest rate cuts remains low unless there are significant market fluctuations or rapid currency appreciation, suggesting that the bond market may not benefit from new policy measures [5].

Core Viewpoint - The adjustment of the 14-day reverse repurchase operation aims to strengthen the position of the 7-day reverse repurchase policy rate, enhancing liquidity management precision, with smaller banks expected to benefit less than larger banks [1] Group 1: Policy Adjustments - The adjustment in reverse repurchase operations is designed to improve liquidity management and reinforce the importance of the 7-day reverse repurchase rate [1] - The focus on enhancing liquidity management is expected to lead to a more precise control of monetary policy [1] Group 2: Market Impact - The ongoing consumer stimulus policies are being intensified, contributing to the accumulation of positive factors in the banking sector [1] - Mid-term performance improvements are anticipated, with a potential turning point in the banking sector's performance [1] Group 3: Future Considerations - Attention should be paid to the effectiveness of policies being released, as well as the demand for retail business and improvements in risk management [1] - Upcoming events such as the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session and the 15th Five-Year Plan reform measures are crucial for future developments [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - From September 15 - 19, 2025, the central bank net - injected liquidity during the tax period, and the 14 - day reverse repurchase was changed to "American tender". The money market tightened under the influence of the tax period, and there may still be some volatility pressure in the second half of September due to the cross - quarter effect [2][6][7] - From September 15 - 21, 2025, the net payment scale of government bonds increased, and the net payment scale of government bonds from September 22 - 28 is expected to be 413.9 billion yuan [8] - As of September 19, 2025, the maturity yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs) increased overall, and the net financing amount of NCDs turned positive. The maturity repayment volume of NCDs from September 22 - 28 is expected to be 969.2 billion yuan, with increased pressure on renewal [9] - From September 15 - 19, 2025, the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market decreased, and the durations of medium - long - term and short - term interest - style pure bond funds both decreased marginally [10] Summary by Directory 1. Money Market - From September 15 - 19, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase injected 1.8268 trillion yuan and matured 1.2645 trillion yuan, and the treasury cash injected 150 billion yuan and matured 120 billion yuan, with a total net injection of 592.3 billion yuan. On September 15, a 600 - billion - yuan 6 - month outright reverse repurchase operation was carried out, with an incremental renewal of 300 billion yuan. From September 22 - 26, 2025, 1.8268 trillion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases and 300 billion yuan of MLF will mature [6] - On September 19, 2025, the central bank adjusted the 14 - day reverse repurchase operation to "fixed quantity, interest - rate tender, and multiple - price winning bids", which helps reduce bank liability costs and highlights the policy - rate position of the 7 - day reverse repurchase operation rate. It is expected that 14 - day reverse repurchases will be appropriately operated in late September to stabilize the money market [7] - From September 15 - 19, 2025, affected by the tax period, the average values of DR001 and R001 increased by 7.7 and 8.7 basis points respectively compared with September 8 - 12, and the average values of DR007 and R007 increased by 4.8 and 4.0 basis points respectively [7] 2. Government Bonds - From September 15 - 21, 2025, the net payment scale of government bonds was about 448 billion yuan, an increase of about 103.7 billion yuan compared with September 8 - 14. The net financing amount of treasury bonds was about 397.1 billion yuan, and that of local government bonds was about 50.9 billion yuan. From September 22 - 28, 2025, the net payment scale of government bonds is expected to be 41.39 billion yuan, with a net financing of about - 89.65 billion yuan for treasury bonds and about 131.04 billion yuan for local government bonds [8] 3. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit (NCDs) - As of September 19, 2025, the maturity yields of 1 - month and 3 - month NCDs were 1.5750%, an increase of 2.4 and 1.5 basis points respectively compared with September 12, and the maturity yield of 1 - year NCDs was 1.6750%, an increase of 0.5 basis points compared with September 12 [9] - From September 15 - 21, 2025, the net financing amount of NCDs was about 134.4 billion yuan, compared with about - 468.3 billion yuan from September 8 - 14. The maturity repayment volume of NCDs from September 22 - 28 is expected to be 969.2 billion yuan, with increased pressure on renewal [9] 4. Institutional Behavior - From September 15 - 19, 2025, the average calculated leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.32%, compared with 107.37% from September 8 - 12. On September 19 and 12, the calculated leverage ratios were about 107.45% and 107.44% respectively [10] - Based on the calculation results, the durations of medium - long - term and short - term interest - style pure bond funds both decreased marginally. On September 19, 2025, the median duration (MA5) of medium - long - term interest - style pure bond funds was 4.04 years, a weekly decrease of 0.70 years, at the 58.7% quantile since the beginning of 2022; the median duration (MA5) of short - term interest - style pure bond funds was 1.56 years, a weekly decrease of 0.17 years, at the 12.2% quantile since the beginning of 2022 [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the liquidity tightened, mainly due to tax payments, concentrated government bond issuances, and increased capital demand from new stock subscriptions on the Beijing Stock Exchange. The capital interest rates rose significantly to a relatively high level since the second quarter, with increased volatility. The willingness of large - state - owned banks to lend in the inter - bank market needs further restoration, and the central bank maintained net injections, with relatively restrained injections in the first half - week [1][11]. - When approaching the quarter - end, in addition to seasonal disturbances, non - seasonal factors such as more prominent credit expansion at the end of the quarter and the relatively weak "resilience" of large - state - owned banks' lending willingness may amplify the volatility of quarter - end capital interest rates. However, factors such as accelerated fiscal spending and the central bank's support, along with the reform of the 14 - day reverse repurchase tender method, may form positive factors. Overall, the cross - quarter capital situation may present a pattern of "stable with concerns", with controllable pressure but potentially enlarged fluctuations [2][21]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1. How to Assess the Cross - Quarter Liquidity Pressure? - **This Week's Liquidity Tightening**: This week, the liquidity tightened due to tax payments, government bond issuances, and new stock subscriptions. The capital interest rates rose significantly, and the central bank maintained net injections. The pressure eased towards the end of the week [11]. - **Differences in This Quarter - End**: Compared with previous years, this quarter - end may see more prominent credit expansion. The lending willingness of large - state - owned banks has shown weaker "resilience", which may increase the volatility of quarter - end capital interest rates. However, fiscal spending and the central bank's support, as well as the reform of the 14 - day reverse repurchase tender method, may have a positive impact [21]. 3.2. Open Market: Over 2 Trillion Yuan to Mature Next Week - **This Week's Operations**: During the tax - payment period this week, the central bank maintained net injections of reverse repurchases, with relatively restrained injections in the first half - week and increased injections in the second half. As of September 19, the balance of reverse repurchases was 182.68 billion yuan, an increase of 56.23 billion yuan compared to September 12 [33][34]. - **Next Week's Maturities**: From September 22 - 26, the open - market maturities will exceed 2 trillion yuan, including 182.68 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases and 30 billion yuan of MLF [3][33]. 3.3. Government Bonds: Issuance Scale to Decline Next Week - **This Week's Situation**: This week, the net payment of government bonds was 40.3 billion yuan. The cumulative issuance of national debt this year reached 5.5435 trillion yuan, with a progress of 90%, and the cumulative issuance of new local bonds was 4.2292 trillion yuan, with a progress of 81% [43][44]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: Next week, the planned issuance of government bonds is 41.31 billion yuan, a decline from this week. The net payment of national debt will be - 8.97 billion yuan, and that of local bonds will be 15.05 billion yuan [4][43]. 3.4. Excess Reserve Tracking and Forecast - **Forecast Results**: It is predicted that the excess reserve ratio in September 2025 will be about 1.73%, a month - on - month increase of about 0.25 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.07 percentage points [46]. 3.5. Money Market: Net Lending of Large - State - Owned Banks Declined - **Interest Rate Changes**: As of September 19, compared with September 12, DR001, DR007, R001, and R007 all increased. The overnight and 7 - day SHIBOR and CNH HIBOR also changed to varying degrees. The interest rates of interest rate swaps and bill discounts also had corresponding changes [5][49]. - **Trading Volume**: The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase decreased, while that of the Shanghai Stock Exchange's new pledged repurchase of national debt increased [61]. - **Net Lending**: This week, the average net lending of the banking system was 2.74 trillion yuan, a decrease of 377.2 billion yuan compared with last week. Among them, the average net lending of large - state - owned banks was 3.48 trillion yuan, a decrease of 264.6 billion yuan [67]. 3.6. Inter - Bank Certificates of Deposit 3.6.1. Primary Market: Issuance Scale Increased - **Overall Situation**: This week, the total issuance of inter - bank certificates of deposit was 98.35 billion yuan, with a net financing of 896 million yuan, an increase compared with last week [74]. - **By Issuer**: State - owned banks had the highest issuance scale and net financing. The issuance proportions of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks changed compared with last week [74]. - **By Maturity**: 3 - month certificates of deposit had the highest issuance scale, and 6 - month certificates of deposit had the highest net financing. The issuance proportions of different maturities also changed [74]. 3.6.2. Secondary Market: Yields Rose - **By Maturity**: The yields of AAA - rated certificates of deposit with different maturities all increased [98]. - **By Credit Rating**: The yields of 1 - year certificates of deposit with different credit ratings all increased [98][99][100].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - From September 8 - 12, 2025, the central bank had a net injection of funds through 7 - day reverse repos, and conducted a 600 - billion - yuan 6M outright reverse repo operation on September 15. The weekly average of the inter - bank bond market leverage ratio decreased. The net contribution of government bonds increased, and most of the maturity yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs) rose. The money market rate increased marginally, with a tight - then - loose pattern during the week. From September 15 - 21, 2025, the expected net contribution of government bonds is 397.55 billion yuan, and the maturity scale of NCDs is about 850.1 billion yuan [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Money Market - **Central Bank's Fund Injection**: From September 8 - 12, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repo had a net injection of 196.1 billion yuan. On September 15, a 600 - billion - yuan 6M outright reverse repo operation was carried out, with a net injection of 30 billion yuan for the month. By conducting outright reverse repos and MLF operations in different periods of the month, it helps maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity [6]. - **Money Market Tightening**: From September 8 - 12, 2025, the average values of DR001 and R001 increased by 7.3 and 6.9 basis points respectively compared with September 1 - 5. The average values of DR007 and R007 increased by 2.7 and 2.0 basis points respectively. The money market tightened marginally, and there will still be impacts from tax payments and quarter - end factors in the later period [7]. - **Government Bond Net Contribution**: From September 8 - 14, 2025, the net contribution of government bonds was about 344.2 billion yuan, an increase of about 222.6 billion yuan compared with September 1 - 7. From September 15 - 21, 2025, the expected net contribution of government bonds is 397.55 billion yuan [7]. 2. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit (NCDs) - **Maturity Yields**: As of September 12, 2025, the maturity yields of 1M and 3M NCDs increased by 10.6 and 1.0 basis points respectively compared with September 5, and the 1Y NCD maturity yield increased by 0.5 basis points [8]. - **Net Financing**: From September 8 - 14, 2025, the net financing of NCDs was about - 468.3 billion yuan. From September 15 - 21, 2025, the expected maturity repayment amount of NCDs is 850.1 billion yuan, and the pressure of maturity renewal has decreased compared with the previous week [8]. 3. Institutional Behavior - **Inter - bank Bond Market Leverage Ratio**: From September 8 - 12, 2025, the average value of the estimated inter - bank bond market leverage ratio was 107.55%, lower than the estimated average value of 107.70% from September 1 - 5 [9].

Group 1 - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 212.6 billion yuan for 7 days, with the bidding amount matching the operation amount [1] - The operation interest rate remained stable at 1.40%, unchanged from previous levels [1]