投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 8 月 27 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏弱 | 震荡 | 全面降息可能性下降，加上股市 风险偏好上升 | 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各国债期货均震荡小幅上涨。由于政策利率的锚定效应显现，市场利率继续上行的空 间受限，因此国债期货触底回升。不过短期内国债期货的上行动能预计有所不足。从政策面来看，货 币政策以结构性宽松为主，侧重在提振消费与扶持科技创新相关领域，全面降息的可能性有所下降。 从资金偏好来看，近期股市风险偏好持续上升，赚钱效应吸引资金投入股市获取更高收益率，购买国 债的资金需求有所下降。总的来说，短期内国债期货维持底部震荡运行。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 8 月 26 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏弱 | 震荡 | 全面降息可能性下降，加上股市 风险偏好上升 | 备注： （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1/2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各国债期货均震荡上涨。目前国债期货上行动力不足主要在 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The short - term view of treasury bond futures is weak - side oscillation, and the medium - term view is oscillation. The overall view is oscillation. The reason is that the possibility of comprehensive interest rate cuts has decreased, and the risk appetite of the stock market has risen [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term, medium - term, and overall views are oscillation, and the intraday view is weak - side oscillation. The core logic is that the possibility of comprehensive interest rate cuts has decreased, and the risk appetite of the stock market has risen [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Quotation Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of varieties TL, T, TF, TS is weak - side oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the reference view is oscillation. The core logic is that treasury bond futures rebounded slightly in oscillation yesterday. On one hand, future policy will focus on structural easing, and the possibility of comprehensive interest rate cuts has decreased. The central bank's second - quarter monetary policy implementation report emphasizes "refinement" and "structure", indicating that future monetary policy will introduce structural easing policies in areas such as inclusive small and micro financial services, financial support for scientific and technological innovation, and financial support for consumption promotion. On the other hand, the risk appetite of the stock market has been rising recently, and the money - making effect of the stock market has attracted funds into the stock market, suppressing the demand for buying treasury bonds. However, due to the continuous recovery of market interest rates, the anchoring effect of policy interest rates is gradually emerging, and the room for further increase in market interest rates is limited. In general, treasury bond futures will operate in a weak - side oscillation in the short term [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The overall view on Treasury bond futures is "oscillation". In the short - term, Treasury bond futures are expected to operate in an oscillatory and weakly downward manner. The reasons are that the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut has decreased, and the risk appetite in the stock market has increased, leading to a shift of funds from bonds to stocks and suppressing the demand for buying Treasury bonds [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Content 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillatory and weakly downward", and the overall view is "oscillation". The core logic is that the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut has decreased, and the risk appetite in the stock market has increased [1] 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "oscillatory and weakly downward", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". The core logic is that on August 16, 2025, the central bank released the second - quarter monetary policy implementation report, emphasizing "refinement" and "structure", which weakened the expectation of a comprehensive interest rate cut. Also, the risk appetite in the stock market has been rising recently, and funds have shifted from bonds to stocks, suppressing the demand for buying Treasury bonds. Overall, Treasury bond futures are expected to operate in an oscillatory and weakly downward manner in the short term [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "moderately loose" tone of monetary policy continues, and a comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cut may be implemented first. Monetary policy will strengthen counter - cyclical adjustment and cooperate with fiscal policy. A comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cut may land in the first half of the year, and a comprehensive interest rate cut may be launched if necessary. Structural tools will support key areas and new tools may be created to promote consumption and stabilize foreign trade [4][34][36]. - The supply pressure of interest - rate bonds may increase. The annual issuance of interest - rate bonds may exceed 31 trillion yuan, with supply peaks in the second and third quarters. The yield will remain highly volatile under the game between the fundamentals and incremental policies, and the yield center may decline in the second half of the year. Attention can be paid to local bond trading opportunities [4][37][44]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental and Liquidity Monitoring - In the first quarter, the economy started well with GDP growing by 5.4% year - on - year. The industrial added value increased by 6.5% year - on - year, and high - tech manufacturing grew rapidly. Investment and social retail sales increased, but there were still issues such as negative real estate investment growth. CPI and PPI showed different trends, and PMI data indicated overall weak performance [6]. - The MLF policy interest rate attribute was diluted, and the money market was tight with the central money rate rising. The central bank mainly used repurchase operations for net capital injection, and did not cut interest rates or the reserve requirement ratio. Banks faced high liability pressure, and non - bank deposits decreased significantly [9][12]. 3.2 Interest - rate Bond Market Operation - The issuance scale of interest - rate bonds increased year - on - year. In the first quarter, the total issuance scale reached 7.87 trillion yuan, with increases in all types of bonds. Special refinancing bonds for local debt increased significantly, while the issuance progress of new special bonds was still slow compared with 2022 - 2023 [15]. - The yield of interest - rate bonds first rose and then fell, with high volatility. The 10 - year treasury bond yield was 1.8129% at the end of March, up 13.77BP from the end of last year. The yield can be divided into three stages in the first quarter: interval fluctuation, upward fluctuation, and downward fluctuation [17][18][19]. - The trading volume of interest - rate bonds increased, mainly driven by the increase in policy - financial bond trading. The 10Y - 1Y spread of treasury bonds narrowed, and the local bond trading spread widened [24][25]. 3.3 Monetary Policy Outlook - The "moderately loose" tone of monetary policy continues. Considering overseas uncertainties and domestic economic challenges, the central bank will choose the timing to cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates. A comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cut may be implemented first, and the use of structural tools will be increased [34][36]. 3.4 Interest - rate Bond Outlook - The annual issuance of interest - rate bonds may exceed 31 trillion yuan. The issuance of government bonds will accelerate, and the second and third quarters may see supply peaks. If the US maintains high tariffs, it may drag down China's GDP growth, and incremental fiscal policies may be introduced, increasing the supply of interest - rate bonds [37][40]. - The yield will remain highly volatile under the game between the fundamentals and incremental policies. In the second quarter, the yield may fluctuate within a range, and may face upward pressure if the tariff negotiation eases. In the second half of the year, the yield center may decline if the economic repair pressure increases [43][44].