Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 482.3 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous rate, resulting in a net injection of 415 billion yuan after 67.3 billion yuan of reverse repos matured [1] - In the previous week, the net withdrawal from 7-day reverse repos was 34.8 billion yuan, while the PBOC conducted a 1-year Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation of 400 billion yuan, exceeding the previous amount by 100 billion yuan [1] - The average rate of DR001 is expected to drop below 1.3% for the month, indicating a continued loose monetary environment despite potential year-end disturbances [2] Group 2 - The PBOC's monetary policy committee emphasized the need for continued moderate easing and enhanced counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments to support stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery [3] - Analysts predict that the first quarter of 2026 will see a path of easing through reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and structural interest rate reductions, with a potential RRR cut of 50 basis points releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in liquidity [3] - The focus of monetary policy will shift towards ensuring the smooth transmission of interest rates and adjusting the relationships between various asset rates, aiming for an overall moderate easing goal [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Galaxy Securities indicates that the monetary policy in the first quarter will focus on reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and structural interest rate reductions to support economic growth and liquidity [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Measures - The fiscal policy will be proactive, with monetary policy actively coordinating to support it, including a potential 50 basis points (BP) RRR cut, which could release approximately 1 trillion yuan in liquidity [1] - Structural interest rate cuts are seen as a more effective approach, with the central bank likely to target specific monetary policy tools to lower rates in key areas such as domestic demand, technological innovation, and financing for small and medium-sized enterprises [1] - A comprehensive interest rate cut will depend on external and internal stability, with the potential for 1-2 rate cuts throughout the year, totaling a reduction of 10-20 BP, which would influence the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and subsequently affect loan and deposit rates [1]

1、不同风险利率的比价关系。即风险溢价需保持在合理水平，企业融资利率不应低于国债收益率。因 此存款利率和贷款利率进一步下行的空间被约束； 2、商业银行资产端利率和负债端利率的关系，保持银行合理净息差，需要商业银行资产端和负债端利 率保持更为合理的比价； 3、不同类型资产收益率的关系。这意味着存款利率和债券收益率需要保持合理利差。 货币政策展望：一季度的宽松路径将是降准和结构性降息。 【大河财立方消息】12月25日，银河证券研报称，12月18日，中国人民银行货币政策委员会召开2025年 第四季度例会。货币政策表述延续中央经济工作会议的定调，但没有明确提及"灵活高效运用降准降 息"。 本次会议最值得关注的重要变化：社会综合融资成本进一步下行面临利率比价的束缚。从"推动社会综 合融资成本下降"转变为"促进社会综合融资成本低位运行"，表明在目前社会综合融资成本已处于"低 位"的背景下，继续推动其进一步下行面临利率比价的约束。 央行货币调控的中间变量将从"数量型和价格型调控并行"逐步转向"以价格型调控为主"，以价格调控为 主，关键在于畅通市场化利率形成和传导机制，而如果希望畅通市场化利率形成和传导机制，就必须保 持合理 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoint of the Report - The short - term view of Treasury bond futures is mainly for consolidation, with limited upward and downward drivers in the short - term. In the long - term, due to the insufficient effective domestic demand, the monetary environment will be overall loose, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures [5] Group 3: Summary of Relevant Content 1. Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weak. The reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has decreased, while the long - term expectation of easing still exists [1] 2. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that Treasury bond futures oscillated and consolidated last Friday. In the short - term, the necessity of a comprehensive interest rate cut is not strong, and market interest rates are gradually approaching policy rates, so the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited. In the long - term, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists, and the future monetary environment will be overall loose, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures [5]

Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0% in October, down 0.8 percentage points from September and matching the level seen in April 2025, during peak US-China trade tensions[1] - Production and new orders were the largest contributors to the decline, dragging down the PMI by 0.55 and 0.27 percentage points, respectively[1] - The manufacturing prices decreased, with raw material purchase prices and factory prices both dropping by 0.7 percentage points to 52.5% and 47.5%, respectively[2] Service Sector - The service sector's business activity index slightly rebounded to 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage points, but new orders fell by 0.7 percentage points to 46.0%[3] - The gap between the business activity index and new orders widened to 4.2, the highest since October 2024, indicating persistent demand weakness[3] Construction Sector - The construction sector saw new orders rebound by 3.7 percentage points to 45.9%, marking the second consecutive month of increase, although the business activity index fell slightly to 49.1%[4] - The rebound in construction PMI was primarily driven by civil engineering projects related to infrastructure, with business activity index rising over 5 percentage points to above 55%[4] Economic Outlook - The overall composite PMI for October was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from September, the lowest since early 2023[5] - The need for monetary policy support is increasing as the economy shows signs of continued slowdown, with GDP growth at 4.8% in Q3[5] Policy Measures - In October, significant policy measures were implemented, including the rapid deployment of 500 billion yuan in policy development financial tools and the resumption of government bond trading[6] - The likelihood of further monetary easing, including potential rate cuts, is rising, with expectations for a possible reduction in reserve requirements and structural interest rate cuts[6] Market Implications - The liquidity-driven bull market characteristics remain evident, with a lack of momentum for a shift towards cyclical and consumer sectors, suggesting continued focus on technology and dividend stocks[7] - Structural risks persist, with high transaction concentration and elevated stock prices, indicating an increased probability of market volatility[7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, Treasury bond futures oscillated and declined. Based on the macro - economic data for August, credit data was weak, the marginal growth rate of consumption slowed, and inflation data was weak. Expectations for stable demand from macro - policies in the fourth quarter are rising. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, shifting its focus from "controlling inflation" to "stabilizing employment". The shift to a loose external monetary environment reduces constraints on the RMB exchange rate, and there are still expectations for an overall interest - rate cut in the fourth quarter, but the possibility of an immediate cut is low. After the continuous rebound from the previous bottom, the implied interest - rate cut expectation is already reflected, so the short - term rebound space is limited. In general, Treasury bond futures face both upward pressure and downward support, and will mainly oscillate in the short term [1] Group 3: Summary of Relevant Catalogs Industry News - On September 18, the People's Bank of China conducted 487 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations with a 7 - day term at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method, with an operating rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous time. According to previous announcements, 292 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured on the same day, resulting in a net injection of 195 billion yuan through reverse repurchases [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of treasury bond futures is mainly for oscillatory consolidation, with limited upside and downside space. The overall view for TL2512 is oscillatory, with a short - term and mid - term oscillatory trend and an intraday oscillatory - weakening trend, due to the decreased possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut and the rising risk appetite in the stock market [1][5]. - Although the short - term necessity for a comprehensive interest rate cut is insufficient, with structural easing to support technology and boost consumption, the future monetary policy environment is generally loose. The increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut overseas has weakened the RMB exchange - rate depreciation pressure, leaving room for future interest rate cuts. The market interest rate is anchored by the policy rate, limiting the upside space of the market interest rate and the downside space of treasury bond futures [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2512, the short - term view is oscillatory, the mid - term view is oscillatory, the intraday view is oscillatory - weakening, and the overall view is oscillatory. The core logic is the decreased possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut and the rising risk appetite in the stock market [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is oscillatory - weakening, the mid - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory. Yesterday, all treasury bond futures oscillated and pulled back. The short - term necessity for a comprehensive interest rate cut is insufficient, with structural easing as the main approach. The strong risk appetite in the stock market has a siphoning effect on funds, suppressing bond - buying demand, limiting the rebound space of treasury bond futures. However, the future monetary policy environment is loose, and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut overseas has weakened the RMB exchange - rate depreciation pressure, leaving room for future interest rate cuts. The market interest rate is anchored by the policy rate, limiting the upside space of the market interest rate and the downside space of treasury bond futures [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the TL2509 variety is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias", and the overall view is "oscillation" due to the decreased possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut and the rising risk appetite in the stock market [1] - For the main varieties (TL, T, TF, TS) in the financial futures stock index sector, the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall reference view is "oscillation". In the short term, the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is insufficient because the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut is low, the central bank focuses on implementing existing policies and provides structural easing for consumer and technology - related enterprises, and the rising risk appetite in the stock market weakens the demand for treasury bonds. However, the anchoring effect of policy interest rates limits the upward space of market interest rates, so the downward space of treasury bond futures is also limited [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term is "oscillation", the medium - term is "oscillation", the intraday is "oscillation with a weak bias", and the view reference is "oscillation". The core logic is the decreased possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut and the rising risk appetite in the stock market [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". The core logic is that last Friday, treasury bond futures oscillated narrowly. In the short term, the low possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut, the central bank's focus on existing policies and structural easing for specific enterprises, and the rising risk appetite in the stock market lead to insufficient upward momentum of treasury bond futures. But the anchoring effect of policy interest rates limits the upward space of market interest rates, so the downward space of treasury bond futures is also limited [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that the overall trend of treasury bond futures is expected to be range - bound. In the short - term, both upward and downward movements are limited, with a forecast of consolidation. The main reasons are the decreased possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut and the rise in the stock market's risk appetite, which restricts the rebound momentum of treasury bond futures. However, the anchor effect of policy interest rates limits the upward movement of market interest rates, providing strong support for treasury bond futures [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term view is "sideways", the medium - term view is "sideways", the intraday view is "sideways with a weak bias", and the overall view is "sideways". The core logic is the decreased possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut and the rise in the stock market's risk appetite [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view for varieties TL, T, TF, and TS is "sideways with a weak bias", the medium - term view is "sideways", and the reference view is "sideways". The core logic is that treasury bond futures fluctuated and slightly declined yesterday. With the monetary policy emphasizing implementation and detailed measures in the second half of this year and focusing on structural easing, the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut has decreased. The rise in the stock market's risk appetite attracts funds into the stock market, suppressing the demand for treasury bonds. However, due to the anchor effect of policy interest rates, the upward movement of market interest rates is restricted, and treasury bond futures still have strong support [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views for TL2509 are shock, shock, and shock - weak respectively, with an overall view of shock due to the decreased possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut and the rising risk appetite in the stock market [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is shock - weak, the medium - term view is shock, and the reference view is shock. The overall situation is that treasury bond futures are expected to maintain a bottom - shock operation in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2509, the short - term view is shock, the medium - term view is shock, the intraday view is shock - weak, and the overall view is shock. The core logic is the decreased possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut and the rising risk appetite in the stock market [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, all treasury bond futures fluctuated and rose slightly. Due to the anchoring effect of policy interest rates, the upward space for market interest rates is limited, so treasury bond futures rebounded from the bottom. However, the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is expected to be insufficient in the short term. From the policy perspective, monetary policy is mainly structurally loose, focusing on boosting consumption and supporting scientific and technological innovation - related fields, and the possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut has decreased. From the perspective of capital preference, the risk appetite in the stock market has been rising recently, and the profit - making effect has attracted funds into the stock market, reducing the demand for funds to buy treasury bonds. In general, treasury bond futures will maintain a bottom - shock operation in the short term [5].