Group 1 - The ongoing negotiations between the US and China in Geneva are being referred to as a "21st Century Bretton Woods moment," indicating a significant financial confrontation with potentially greater risks than trade wars [1] - The US Treasury Secretary brings a historical high of $8.2 trillion in maturing debt by 2025, with interest payments alone being substantial enough to fund 20 aircraft carriers [3] - Global buyers are fleeing US debt, with China reducing its holdings for eight consecutive months and Japan selling off $300 billion, while Saudi Arabia is quietly settling oil transactions in RMB [3] Group 2 - The US is pressuring China to increase its holdings of $200 billion in long-term US debt, with proposals including concessions on high-tech export restrictions and tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles [5] - China's negotiation team is prepared, presenting a "de-dollarization roadmap" signed by 28 countries, which poses a significant challenge to US dollar dominance [8] - The volume of oil transactions settled in RMB between China and Saudi Arabia has surged by 380%, and a new payment system among BRICS nations has integrated 47 countries [8] Group 3 - The negotiations are critical due to two irreversible trends: the potential collapse of US dollar credit and the rise of the RMB as a global reserve currency [10] - If US Treasury yields exceed 5.8%, it could trigger a forced sell-off by global pension funds amounting to $76 trillion, indicating a severe financial risk [12] - The 20-year US Treasury ETF (TLT) has seen a 45% decline over three years, worse than the 2008 financial crisis, while the IMF reports that the RMB's share in global reserves has doubled to over 7% in three years [12]