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新强联(300850):2024年报、2025年一季报点评:Q1业绩超市场预期,盈利能力大幅回升
Guohai Securities· 2025-04-28 08:31
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][6]. Core Views - The company's Q1 performance exceeded market expectations, with significant recovery in profitability. In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 926 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 107.5%, and a net profit of 124 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 415.3% [4][5]. - The increase in profitability is attributed to the growth in wind power main bearings, particularly the TRB (tapered roller bearings), which saw a revenue increase from 274 million yuan in 2024 to 126 million yuan in Q1 2025, raising its revenue share from 9.3% to 13.6% [5][6]. - The company is expected to benefit from the accelerated release of production capacity and the alleviation of fixed asset depreciation pressure, with forecasts for revenue of 4.25 billion yuan in 2025, 5.06 billion yuan in 2026, and 5.70 billion yuan in 2027 [5][7]. Summary by Sections Recent Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 2.946 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 4.3%, and a net profit of 149 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 50.2%. In Q4 2024, revenue was 980 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.0%, with a net profit of 88 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.6% [4]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 4.25 billion yuan, 5.06 billion yuan, and 5.70 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. Corresponding net profits are expected to be 498 million yuan, 654 million yuan, and 785 million yuan [5][7]. Valuation Metrics - The projected P/E ratios for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 22.02x, 16.77x, and 13.97x, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook as earnings grow [6][8].