四季度债市展望：纯债的左侧拐点，转债的右侧机会 20251009 摘要 四季度利率走势或呈不对称倒 U 型，受风险因素及跨年配置需求影响。 30 年国债收益率约 2.1%，10 年期 1.8%，5 年期 1.6%，配置价值显 现，交易盘应关注稳定票息资产。 转债市场维持看多，溢价率高位，关注股性及结构性机会。监管趋严或 致部分产品收缩，如短债基金，但货基、专户产品或增量，关注央行与 监管协同效应。 商业银行资本新规影响已逐步释放，预计类似新规在正式执行前 3-4 个 季度开始显现。2024 年初新规对存单冲击有限，市场或提前反应，四 季度集中发酵。 跨年配置是金融机构早投放早收益的驱动因素，四季度利率下行多受政 策、基本面或事件驱动。国债表现通常优于国开债，尤其在 11 月下旬 至 12 月中旬。 三季度 GDP 增速预计 4.8%-4.9%，四季度 4.5%-4.6%，下行趋势未 改。四中全会有增量政策预期，但短期压力不大，货币政策仍是最灵活 工具。 Q&A 对于四季度债市的总体观点是什么？ 四季度债市短期内可能还有最后一跌，点位基本上已经到位，但时间维度上可 能还需要再等一段时间。当前市场情绪较好，但利率 ...

格隆汇10月9日｜A股市场风电股走强，其中，运达股份涨超10%，金风科技10CM涨停，吉鑫科技涨超 7%，明阳智能涨超6%，天能重工、天顺风能涨超5%。 消息面上，国内海风市场9月迎来招中标高峰 期，海外海风市场已现拐点信号，欧洲海风装机规模今年提升至4.5吉瓦以上；中国首个国家级海上风 电试验基地即将投运，可开展目前世界最大容量风电机组和最长尺寸风机叶片的检测试验，以及多领域 国际前沿技术研究。 ...

四季度资本市场的布局窗口已然开启，市场焦点正从估值修复转向具备明确增长逻辑的产业赛道。从"实验室"走 向"应用场"的人形机器人、在深远海实现技术突破的风电产业、价格触底反弹的光伏板块，三大赛道齐头并进， 把握科技突破与能源转型中的结构性机遇，或将成为穿越市场波动的关键。 证券时报记者 郭洁 在全球能源结构向清洁低碳加速转型的背景下，中国风电产业正以全方位领先的姿态，书写着全球能源变革的 "中 国答卷"。 国家能源局数据显示，今年上半年，全国风电新增并网容量5139万千瓦。截至2025年6月底，全国风电累计并网容 量达到5.73亿千瓦，同比增长22.7%，其中陆上风电5.28亿千瓦，海上风电4420万千瓦。今年上半年，全国风电累 计发电量5880亿千瓦时，同比增长15.6%，全国风电平均利用率93.2%。 风电领域近期利好消息频出。 9月，我国在联合国气候峰会上宣布新一轮国家自主贡献目标中明确：到2035年，中国非化石能源消费占能源消费 总量的比重达到30%以上，风电和太阳能发电总装机容量达到2020年的6倍以上、力争达到36亿千瓦。 据央视新闻报道，位于福建福清的海上风电研究与试验检测基地，是国家"十四五"规 ...

Group 1 - The market showed divergence on September 29, with the ChiNext Index rising over 2.00%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.04% and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.13% [1] - Sectors such as new energy batteries, energy storage, photovoltaics, and wind power experienced significant gains, leading the market [1] - Nearly 2,800 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets saw an increase [1]

Group 1: AI Equipment - Nvidia announced an investment plan of up to $100 billion in OpenAI, which will utilize Nvidia systems to build and deploy at least 10GW of AI data centers for training and running next-generation models, equivalent to 4-5 million GPUs, double the shipment volume of the previous year [1] - Alibaba officially announced a collaboration with Nvidia on Physical AI, covering various aspects including data synthesis, model training, environmental simulation reinforcement learning, and model validation testing, accelerating the construction of AI infrastructure and related equipment investment opportunities [1] Group 2: Nuclear Fusion - China Fusion Company made its first public appearance, aiming to build a high-temperature superconducting fusion device, "China Circulation No. 4," in Shanghai, targeting commercial fusion energy by 2050 [2] - The new fusion experimental device will validate the high-temperature superconducting magnets developed in Shanghai, with the industry expected to see a new breakthrough driven by advancements in superconducting and AI technologies [2] Group 3: Wind Power Equipment - From January to August, the newly installed wind power capacity in China reached 57.84GW, an increase of 24.24GW year-on-year [2] - According to Wood Mackenzie, the global wind power capacity is expected to reach a record high of 170GW in 2025, with an average annual increase exceeding 170GW over the next five years, peaking at 200GW by 2034 [2]

下周国庆和中秋碰到一起了，节前就剩两个交易日了。结合本周资金流向来看，散户交投情绪趋于谨 慎，很多财经号建议持币，反而机构资金对后市持乐观态度。和讯投顾刘阳表示，其实这个月最大的分 歧点在9月18号，也就是上周四美联储的降息动作，在降息前大盘上涨了八九百个点，很多资金预判利 好兑现要往下拐，标题党整天喊A股将迎来重大变盘，实际上指数在抛压最大的时刻没有被空方干下 去，换个说法就是多方守住了。那么接下来就是多头反攻，过去几个周期TMT行业是一起动的，这一 轮行情出现了明显的分化，涨的时候没有一起涨，跌的时候可能就要一起跌了。科技方向下周我们看分 化机器人算力和英伟达上游供应商看下行固态，储能风电看上行，下周两天看阳线反攻大面积红。 ...

涨跌停板数据，不仅是反映板块和个股强弱的指标，更是市场情绪与资金流向的重要标志。那么，今日 的涨停个股有哪些特点呢？哪些涨停股又值得重点关注？ 今日上证指数下跌0.65%，个股涨跌幅中位数为-0.58%。涨停板方面，持续多日霸榜的AI产业链概念 股，今日涨停股个数再度减少。 各位投资者，大家好。 值得注意的是，今日有不少风电行业个股涨停，其中3只创下近一年新高，而昨日有较多电力设备行业 个股涨停。在AI产业链涨停股数量连续两日减少的同时，电力相关行业个股却频现涨停榜，是否是资 金进攻方向切换的信号？这是值得关注的。当然，AI是耗电大户，电力算是AI产业链的上游行业，从 产业链传导的逻辑上来讲也有一定可能。 消息面上，近期，摩根士丹利上调中国风电行业评级，认为板块或迎来复苏。摩根士丹利在最新研报中 指出，经过近三年的下行周期后，中国风电价值链通过行业自律成功实现了"反内卷"，在2025年初实现 了价格和整体盈利能力的转机。该机构预计国内风电装机需求将保持韧性，并看好关键零部件供应商和 海缆企业的投资机会。 一、市场总览及板块特征 沪深两市（不含ST个股）涨停47家，较昨日增加6家；跌停21家，较昨日增加15家。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a downturn on September 26, with all three major indices closing lower, while the wind power equipment index rose by 2.67%, indicating a divergence in sector performance amid broader market challenges [1] Industry Summary - On September 24, China announced a new round of national contribution targets, aiming for wind and solar power generation capacity to exceed six times the 2020 levels by 2035, targeting a total of 3.6 billion kilowatts [1] - As of the end of August this year, China's total installed capacity for wind and solar power surpassed 1.69 billion kilowatts, creating new growth opportunities for the wind power industry [1]

| 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 北证50 | | --- | --- | --- | | 3846.33 | 13339.82 | 1542.11 | | -6.97 -0.18% -106.08 -0.79% -15.11 -0.97% | | | | 科创50 | 创业板指 | 万得全A | | 1466.84 | 3198.02 6274.39 | | | -7.64 -0.52% -37.75 -1.17% -26.25 -0.42% | | | | 沪深300 | 中证500 | 中证A500 | | 4574.03 | 7307.40 | 5535.04 | | -19.46 -0.42% -33.92 -0.46% -26.10 -0.47% | | | | 中证1000 | 深证100 | 中证红利 | | 7468.87 | 5881.87 | 5458.67 | | -37.65 -0.50% -45.54 -0.77% +18.16 +0.33% | | | 记者丨金珊 李益文 庞华玮 编辑丨陈思颖 叶映橙 包芳鸣 9月26日，A股市场早间震荡调整。截至收盘，沪指跌0.18%，深成指跌0 ...

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices collectively declined in the morning session, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.18% at 3846.33 points, the Shenzhen Component down 0.79%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.17% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 138.18 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.4 billion yuan compared to the previous day, with over 2500 stocks declining [1] Sector Performance - Wind power equipment stocks saw a significant increase, with companies like Jixin Technology, Riyue Shares, and Yangming Intelligent hitting the daily limit [1] - Copper-related stocks continued to strengthen, with Jingyi Shares achieving three consecutive limits and Shengtun Mining rising over 7%, as global copper supply tightens; Citigroup predicts copper prices will rise to $12,000 per ton in the next 6 to 12 months [1] - Real estate stocks experienced a broad rally, with Hefei Urban Construction hitting the daily limit and Shanghai Urban Development rising over 8%, following a month of new policies in the Shanghai housing market that saw new home transactions increase by 19% month-on-month [1] Individual Stock Movements - Sailyus reached its daily limit and hit a historical high as the company received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission for its H-share issuance [2] - The gaming sector faced a pullback, with Jibite hitting the daily limit and companies like Kunlun Wanwei and Xinghui Entertainment dropping over 5% [1] - AI hardware sectors, including CPO and liquid-cooled servers, declined, with Lianang Micro falling over 9% and companies like Aggregated Materials and Chuanrun Shares dropping over 6% [1] - Pharmaceutical stocks generally fell, with Haocen Medical dropping over 9% and Hanyu Pharmaceutical and Hongjing Technology declining over 6%, as the U.S. plans to impose a 100% tariff on pharmaceutical products [1]