新强联 20251021 摘要 新强联 2025 年前三季度营收稳步增长，主要受益于风电行业需求回暖 和公司技术优势带来的市场份额扩大，以及产能利用率维持高位和成本 管控优化，风电类产品营收占比达 76.95%，同比增长 106.01%。 公司风电主轴承类产品持续增长，三排滚子主轴承 SIP 出货量环比增长 2%，CRP 出货量同比增长 100%，独立变桨轴承同比增幅 42%、环比 增幅 20%，风电锁紧盘营收达 2 亿，同比增幅 24%、环比增幅 12%， 高附加值产品显著提升利润。 四季度虽为传统淡季，但新强联仍保持满产状态，预计 10 月和 11 月产 能满负荷运转，虽整体交付量可能略有下降，但公司将陆续释放新产能 以应对市场需求。 预计 2026 年国内陆风 TRB 市场需求将大幅提升，主机厂如三一重工和 明阳智能已在其最新机型中采用双 TRB 结构，推动 5~8 兆瓦功率段风 机快速切换到 TRB，预计明年陆风 TRB 渗透率将显著提高，行业需求可 能接近翻倍。 Q&A 请介绍一下新强联 2025 年第三季度的业绩情况。 公司新设备调试情况如何？对未来产能有何影响？ 新强联 2025 年第三季度的业 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant advancements and achievements of Luoyang Bearing Group Co., Ltd. in the bearing industry, particularly in wind power, shield tunneling machines, and new energy vehicles [8][9][11][12][14]. Wind Power Bearings - Luoyang Bearing Group has developed the world's largest 16-megawatt wind power main bearing, achieving multiple key performance indicators that are internationally leading [9][11]. - The company has captured over 40% of the Chinese wind power main bearing market, with annual output value exceeding 2 billion yuan [11]. Shield Tunneling Machine Bearings - The company faced initial challenges in promoting its shield tunneling machine bearings due to high reliability requirements and competition from foreign products [12][13]. - After four years of persistent efforts, Luoyang Bearing Group successfully integrated its bearings into 12-meter shield tunneling machines, with performance metrics now matching international standards at a cost less than one-third of imported products [13]. New Energy Vehicle Wheel Hub Bearings - The transition to electric vehicles has introduced new challenges for wheel hub bearings, as the quieter operation of electric vehicles has made bearing noise more noticeable [14][16]. - Luoyang Bearing Group has adapted to these challenges by developing high-load, high-reliability, and low-friction wheel hub bearings, achieving the highest market share in China for new energy vehicle wheel hub bearings [14][16].

Key Insights - The aluminum industry is experiencing a favorable macroeconomic environment with reduced tariff pressures and positive policy signals from both the US and China [4][10] - The demand for aluminum products is showing structural recovery, driven by new orders leading to increased inventory needs ahead of the May holiday [6][7] - The supply of electrolytic aluminum remains stable, with production costs slightly increasing, while inventory levels are decreasing [5][10] - The prices of key materials such as metal chromium, polymer MDI, and acetamide are on the rise, indicating a potential boom in the chromium salt cycle [18][27] - The chemical industry is expected to enter a replenishment cycle in 2025, driven by low inventory levels and improving profitability among leading companies [22][23] Company Summaries Aluminum Industry - The average cost of electrolytic aluminum is approximately 16,582 RMB/ton, with a slight week-on-week increase [5] - Domestic aluminum ingot inventory has decreased to 658,000 tons, reflecting a 3.1% drop week-on-week [5] - The aluminum processing sector is witnessing a notable increase in inventory depletion rates, with a current inventory of aluminum rods at 177,800 tons [7] Chemical Industry - The chemical sector is seeing a tightening supply of phosphorous ore, with companies like Baitian Co. expanding production capacity significantly [21] - The chemical industry is projected to benefit from a replenishment cycle in 2025, with major companies expected to see improved performance due to cost advantages and market share growth [22][23] - The prices of key chemical products, including metal chromium and polymer MDI, have increased significantly, indicating strong demand and supply constraints [27][28] Data Center Services - Aofei Data reported a 62.18% year-on-year revenue increase in 2024, with Q1 2025 revenue up 40.62% year-on-year [11][12] - The company is expanding its IDC services, with over 43,000 operational cabinets, benefiting from increased capital expenditure in the internet sector [14][16] - The projected revenue for Aofei Data for 2025-2027 is expected to grow significantly, with a "buy" rating assigned based on its market position and growth potential [16]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][6]. Core Views - The company's Q1 performance exceeded market expectations, with significant recovery in profitability. In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 926 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 107.5%, and a net profit of 124 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 415.3% [4][5]. - The increase in profitability is attributed to the growth in wind power main bearings, particularly the TRB (tapered roller bearings), which saw a revenue increase from 274 million yuan in 2024 to 126 million yuan in Q1 2025, raising its revenue share from 9.3% to 13.6% [5][6]. - The company is expected to benefit from the accelerated release of production capacity and the alleviation of fixed asset depreciation pressure, with forecasts for revenue of 4.25 billion yuan in 2025, 5.06 billion yuan in 2026, and 5.70 billion yuan in 2027 [5][7]. Summary by Sections Recent Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 2.946 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 4.3%, and a net profit of 149 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 50.2%. In Q4 2024, revenue was 980 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.0%, with a net profit of 88 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.6% [4]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 4.25 billion yuan, 5.06 billion yuan, and 5.70 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. Corresponding net profits are expected to be 498 million yuan, 654 million yuan, and 785 million yuan [5][7]. Valuation Metrics - The projected P/E ratios for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 22.02x, 16.77x, and 13.97x, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook as earnings grow [6][8].