Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report indicates that banks are likely to continue the strategy of early loan disbursement for early returns in 2026, with Q1 new loans expected to account for 62%-65% of the annual total [3][15] - In January, new RMB loans are projected to be between 5.2-5.3 trillion yuan, showing a slight year-on-year increase, with potential acceleration in loan issuance towards the end of the month [4][37] - The overall loan volume for the year is expected to be around 15.5 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease, but with a stabilization in loan pricing [4][37] Summary by Sections Loans - The loan issuance rhythm for 2026 is anticipated to be front-loaded, although the pace in early January may be slower than expected due to various factors including lower discount rates and a cautious approach from banks [3][24] - The trend of front-loading loan issuance is expected to continue, with Q1 new loans projected to represent a significant portion of the annual total [15][17] Deposits - Large banks are expected to have a strong start in deposit growth, potentially exceeding expectations due to proactive marketing and better retention rates of maturing deposits [5][38] - The liquidity situation for large banks is relatively stable, with a high average daily lending balance of 4.5 trillion yuan in January 2026, indicating manageable funding pressures [38][40] - The competition for deposits among smaller banks is diminishing, as larger banks enhance their marketing efforts and pricing strategies [44][45] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on state-owned banks and wealth management-oriented joint-stock banks, as they are likely to benefit from the early loan and deposit growth dynamics [7]