【开源银行】2026年初银行存贷形势更新与展望 11月中上旬信贷节奏或一般，银行并未特别抢投放，或是银行主动控制的结果，与LPR降息预期阶段性减弱、晚 春节效应、日均存贷比约束以及贷款限价反内卷相关。 2我们预计1月人民币贷款新增5.2-5.3万亿元，同比小幅多增，1月下旬或存在贷 【开源银行】2026年初银行存贷形势更新与展望 贷款：2026年银行或延续早投放早收益思路，预计Q1新增信贷占全年62%-65%。 11月中上旬信贷节奏或一般，银行并未特别抢投放，或是银行主动控制的结果，与LPR降息预期阶段性减弱、晚 春节效应、日均存贷比约束以及贷款限价反内卷相关。 2我们预计1月人民币贷款新增5.2-5.3万亿元，同比小幅多增，1月下旬或存在贷款提速可能。 全年人民币贷款预计新增15.5万亿元左右，同比少增，但贷款收益率下行幅度放缓，整体保持量价平衡的状态。 存款：大行存款开门红总量或超预期 12026年初大行资负缺口压力不大，流动性较充裕，反映为资金融出规模高位、同业存单净融资为负、买债力度 偏强等现象上。 贷款：2026年银行或延续早投放早收益思路，预计Q1新增信贷占全年62%-65%。 2资产端来看贷款投 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report indicates that banks are likely to continue the strategy of early loan disbursement for early returns in 2026, with Q1 new loans expected to account for 62%-65% of the annual total [3][15] - In January, new RMB loans are projected to be between 5.2-5.3 trillion yuan, showing a slight year-on-year increase, with potential acceleration in loan issuance towards the end of the month [4][37] - The overall loan volume for the year is expected to be around 15.5 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease, but with a stabilization in loan pricing [4][37] Summary by Sections Loans - The loan issuance rhythm for 2026 is anticipated to be front-loaded, although the pace in early January may be slower than expected due to various factors including lower discount rates and a cautious approach from banks [3][24] - The trend of front-loading loan issuance is expected to continue, with Q1 new loans projected to represent a significant portion of the annual total [15][17] Deposits - Large banks are expected to have a strong start in deposit growth, potentially exceeding expectations due to proactive marketing and better retention rates of maturing deposits [5][38] - The liquidity situation for large banks is relatively stable, with a high average daily lending balance of 4.5 trillion yuan in January 2026, indicating manageable funding pressures [38][40] - The competition for deposits among smaller banks is diminishing, as larger banks enhance their marketing efforts and pricing strategies [44][45] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on state-owned banks and wealth management-oriented joint-stock banks, as they are likely to benefit from the early loan and deposit growth dynamics [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report indicates that banks are likely to continue the strategy of early loan disbursement for early returns in 2026, with Q1 new loans expected to account for 62%-65% of the annual total [3][15] - In January, new RMB loans are projected to be between 5.2-5.3 trillion yuan, showing a slight year-on-year increase, with potential acceleration in loan issuance towards the end of the month [4][37] - The overall loan volume for the year is expected to be around 15.5 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease, but with a stabilization in loan pricing [4][37] - Large banks are experiencing strong deposit growth, exceeding expectations, attributed to proactive pricing strategies and effective marketing efforts [5][38][44] - The stability of deposits is a concern, with potential uncertainties regarding the retention rates of high-interest deposits maturing in 2026 [6][44] Summary by Sections Loans - The loan issuance rhythm for 2026 is anticipated to be front-loaded, although the pace may be slow in early January due to various factors including lower discount rates and a cautious approach from banks [3][24] - The trend of front-loading loan issuance is expected to continue, with Q1 new loans projected to represent a significant portion of the annual total [15][17] Deposits - Large banks are expected to have a strong start in deposit growth, with liquidity remaining ample and net financing from interbank certificates of deposit (NCD) being negative, indicating a healthy deposit environment [5][40] - The competitive advantage of smaller banks in deposit acquisition is diminishing, as larger banks enhance their marketing efforts and pricing strategies [44][45] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on state-owned banks and wealth management-oriented joint-stock banks due to their advantages in expanding balance sheets and performance certainty [7]