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摩托车行业2026年度投资策略:2025自主增势强劲,2026高端出海突围
Minsheng Securities· 2026-01-04 05:15
Core Insights - The motorcycle industry is expected to see strong growth in 2026, driven by high-end exports and robust domestic sales, with a focus on the mid-to-large displacement segment (over 250cc) [6][12] - Domestic sales of mid-to-large displacement motorcycles are projected to reach 47.7 million units in 2026, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.5% [12] - Export volumes for mid-to-large displacement motorcycles are anticipated to hit 71.8 million units in 2026, with a significant year-on-year increase of 33.0% [12] Industry Overview - The mid-to-large displacement motorcycle market has shown a consistent upward trend, with domestic sales reaching 37.4 million units in the first ten months of 2025, marking a 6.2% increase year-on-year [5][14] - The penetration rate of mid-to-large displacement motorcycles in the domestic market has reached a historical high of 11.1% in 2025, up by 2.1 percentage points from the previous year [5][23] - The export of mid-to-large displacement motorcycles has accelerated, with 44.9 million units exported in 2025, reflecting a remarkable year-on-year growth of 59.1% [5][55] Market Structure and Competition - The market structure is evolving, with the top three companies (Chunfeng Power, Qianjiang Motorcycle, and Longxin General) holding a combined market share of 53.6% in the domestic market as of 2025 [47][48] - Chunfeng Power has seen rapid market share growth, increasing its share to 23.6% in 2025, while Qianjiang Motorcycle and Longxin General have experienced declines [47][48] - The competitive landscape is becoming more diversified, with domestic companies enhancing their product offerings and brand strength, allowing them to capture a larger market share [6][9] Future Outlook - The domestic market is expected to see a continued shift towards higher displacement models, with the proportion of 500cc-800cc motorcycles projected to reach 25% of total sales by 2026 [12][9] - The overseas market for mid-to-large displacement motorcycles is estimated to have a potential space of over 5 million units, with significant growth opportunities in Europe and Latin America [7][13] - The focus on high-end products and international expansion is anticipated to drive the growth of domestic motorcycle companies, positioning them for sustainable global competitiveness [8][9] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in Chunfeng Power, Longxin General, and Qianjiang Motorcycle, as these companies are well-positioned to benefit from the anticipated growth in both domestic and international markets [9][12]
摩托车海外市场:十倍广袤待驰骋,品牌出海1→10开启加速 | 投研报告
Core Viewpoint - Motorcycle exports possess three rare attributes: overseas sales potential is over ten times that of the domestic market; core markets are Europe and Latin America, while the U.S. market accounts for less than 1% of global capacity; domestic brands have undergone a qualitative leap in product strength over the past five years, with overseas market share currently below 5%, expected to accelerate from 1% to 10% [1][2]. Market Analysis - The global market for 250cc+ large displacement motorcycles is approximately 3.6 million units, with the overseas market space nearly ten times that of the domestic market. Domestic brands are focusing on Europe and Latin America [2]. - The European motorcycle market has a total size of about 1.84 million units, primarily consisting of large displacement models, with a penetration rate of nearly 60% for 250cc and above. The projected sales for 250cc+ large displacement motorcycles in 2024 is around 1.08 million units, with a preference for high-end models in the 600cc to 1000cc range [2]. - The Americas motorcycle market has an overall capacity of approximately 6.88 million units, with the U.S. market around 500,000 units, primarily focusing on super large displacement models. The Latin American market capacity reaches 6.26 million units, with a projected sales volume of about 500,000 units for 250cc+ models [3]. - The Asian motorcycle market has a total capacity of about 47.55 million units, with penetration rates for 250cc+ models at 8.6% in China and 25% in Japan. The total sales for 250cc+ models in Asia is estimated at 1.34 million units [3]. Company Insights - Changan Power has successfully adopted a "premium" strategy, rapidly gaining international recognition. The company has exported products to over 100 countries, with sales increasing from 8,000 units in 2020 to 126,000 units in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 96.99% [4]. - Longxin General has achieved rapid growth, transitioning from "product export" to "brand export." The brand has gained recognition in the European market, with 76% of export revenue coming from Europe, and sales of the Longxin DS900X exceeding 10,000 units [4]. - Qianjiang Motorcycle, a veteran in the large displacement segment, has elevated its international strategy to a top priority, focusing on markets in Europe, Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa [5].
天风证券:国产摩托车品牌出海1→10开启加速 重点瞄准欧洲+拉美市场
智通财经网· 2025-08-06 02:44
Core Insights - The motorcycle export market presents significant opportunities, with overseas sales potential being over ten times that of the domestic market, particularly targeting Europe and Latin America, while the U.S. market accounts for less than 1% of global capacity [1][2] Group 1: Market Overview - The global market for motorcycles with engine displacement over 250cc is approximately 3.6 million units, with a substantial opportunity for Chinese brands to increase their market share from less than 5% [1] - The European motorcycle market is about 1.84 million units, with a penetration rate of nearly 60% for 250cc+ models, indicating a strong preference for high-end models in the 600cc to 1000cc range [2] - The Americas motorcycle market has a total capacity of around 6.88 million units, with the U.S. market being approximately 500,000 units, while Latin America has a capacity of 6.26 million units, showing a demand for larger displacement motorcycles [3] Group 2: Company Performance - Chunfeng Power has successfully positioned itself in the international market, with exports increasing from 0.8 thousand units in 2020 to 12.6 thousand units in 2024, achieving a CAGR of 96.99% [4] - Longxin General has transitioned from "product export" to "brand export," with significant growth in both domestic and international revenues, particularly in the European market, where it accounts for 76% of export income [5] - Qianjiang Motorcycle, a veteran in the large-displacement segment, has elevated its international strategy to a top priority, focusing on markets in Europe, Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa [5]