2025年10月我国摩托车出口保持较高景气度 智通财经APP获悉，国海证券发布研报称，摩托车出口仍然保持较高景气度，2025年10月摩托车出口 yoy+10%，景气持续，维持"推荐"评级。从出口总量维度看，亚非拉为主要出口地区，非洲和亚洲继续 保持较高增速，分别同比+15.0%/+42.9%。从出口>250cc维度看，除拉丁美洲外同比均保持增长。 国海证券主要观点如下： 主要的出口地区非洲和亚洲仍然保持较高增速 从出口>250cc维度看，2025年10月核心出口国家或区域及增速如下：拉丁美洲：出口33836台，同 比-17%;欧洲：出口21481台，同比+72%;亚洲：出口5451台，同比+48%;北美洲：出口958台，同比 +594%;非洲：出口1053台，同比+23%;大洋洲：出口671台，同比+36%。 风险提示：中大排量摩托车增速不及预期;禁限摩政策影响;关税加征风险;市场需求下行风险;汇率波动 风险;原材料价格大幅度波动风险;中美贸易摩擦超预期风险;本数据为跟踪数据，仅供参考，不构成投资 建议。 根据海关总署，总体来看，摩托车出口保持较高同比增速：2025年10月，摩托车出口141万辆， yoy+1 ...

证券研究报告 2025年11月23日 机械设备 机械行业专题报告： 摩托车行业2025年10月海关数据更新 -11% 0% 11% 22% 33% 43% 2024/10/24 2025/04/24 2025/10/24 机械设备 沪深300 《机械行业专题报告：摩托车行业2025年1-10月数据更新（推荐）*机械设备* 张钰莹》——2025-11-16 《人形机器人专题5：Sim to Real，具身大模型的问题、现状与投资机会（推 荐）*机械设备*张钰莹》——2025-11-10 《机械行业专题报告：摩托车行业2025年9月海关数据更新（推荐）*机械设备 *张钰莹》——2025-10-26 评级：推荐(维持) 张钰莹(证券分析师) S0350524100004 zhangyy03@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 相关报告 相对沪深300表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 机械设备 | -6.0% | -1.6% | 22.7% | | 沪深300 | -3.3% | 3.9% | 11.6% | 请务必阅读报告附注中的风险提示和 ...

Event Overview - In October, the company's fuel motorcycle sales reached 17,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 12.3% but a month-on-month decrease of 1.2% [2] - The sales of the Jike electric motorcycle (excluding self-produced) were 28,000 units, showing significant year-on-year growth [2] - The export sales of four-wheeled beach vehicles reached 19,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 43.3% and a month-on-month increase of 14.3% [2] Two-Wheeled Vehicles: Export Sales and Jike Development - For large-displacement motorcycles (250cc+), October sales were 11,000 units, up 27.8% year-on-year but down 13.8% month-on-month; cumulative sales from January to October reached 166,000 units, a 35.6% year-on-year increase, with market share rising to 20.2% [3] - The new high-end 675cc three-cylinder model sold 55,000 units, a remarkable year-on-year increase of 510.5%, indicating ongoing product structure optimization [3] - The company's two-wheeled motorcycle exports saw a year-on-year recovery, with October sales of 11,000 units, up 50.1% year-on-year and 2.8% month-on-month; cumulative exports from January to October reached 116,000 units, a 20.6% year-on-year increase [3] - The Jike electric motorcycle sales for January to October reached 253,000 units, a substantial year-on-year increase, with the Jike brand expanding its channels domestically and internationally [3] Four-Wheeled Vehicles: U.S. Market Expansion and High-End Layout - In October, the export sales of four-wheeled beach vehicles were 19,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 43.3% and a month-on-month increase of 14.3%, nearing a historical monthly high; cumulative sales from January to October reached 151,000 units, a 9.7% year-on-year increase [4] - The company is maintaining a steady growth trend, with plans to continue leading the European market in market share and expanding in the U.S. market [4] - The core new product U10PRO has gained attention for its performance and quality upgrades, driving an increase in the average selling price (ASP) of four-wheeled vehicles [4] 2025 Milan Exhibition: New High-End Models - The new flagship ADV: 1000 MT-X features a 946cc twin-cylinder engine with a maximum power of 83kW (approximately 113 horsepower) and a maximum torque of 105N·m, equipped with advanced electronic configurations and comfort features [5] - The performance flagship prototype V4 SR-RR showcases the company's technical prowess, featuring a 997cc 90° V4 engine with a power output exceeding 157kW (approximately 210 horsepower) and advanced aerodynamic design [5] Long-Term Outlook - The company is optimistic about the export of two-wheeled vehicles and the high-end layout of four-wheeled vehicles, projecting revenues of 19.91 billion, 24.51 billion, and 29.50 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with net profits of 1.86 billion, 2.38 billion, and 2.93 billion yuan respectively [6] - The expected EPS for the same period is 12.19, 15.61, and 19.21 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 20, 16, and 13 times [6] - The closing price on November 14, 2025, was 242.36 yuan per share [6] Financial Projections | Item/Year | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Revenue (Million Yuan) | 15,038 | 19,914 | 24,514 | 29,502 | | Growth Rate (%) | 24.2 | 32.4 | 23.1 | 20.3 | | Net Profit (Million Yuan) | 1,472 | 1,860 | 2,382 | 2,931 | | Growth Rate (%) | 46.1 | 26.4 | 28.0 | 23.0 | | EPS (Yuan) | 9.65 | 12.19 | 15.61 | 19.21 | | PE | 25 | 20 | 16 | 13 | | PB | 6.0 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 3.3 | [8]

Core Viewpoint - The motorcycle industry, particularly the mid-to-large displacement segment, is experiencing steady sales with a focus on export growth and high-end product development. The overall market is expected to benefit from increased supply and the efforts of leading companies like Chuanfeng Power, Longxin General, and Qianjiang Motorcycle in expanding their export businesses [5][24]. Industry Overview - In October, the sales of motorcycles above 125cc reached 603,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 1.0% but a month-on-month decrease of 19.7%. The growth was primarily driven by the 125-150cc and 500-800cc segments, with leading companies contributing to this increase [3]. - For motorcycles above 250cc, sales in October were 61,000 units, a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.2% and a significant month-on-month drop of 29.7%. Cumulatively, from January to October, sales reached 822,000 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 29.7% [2][3]. - Exports of motorcycles above 250cc in October totaled 37,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.3% but a month-on-month decline of 30.3%. Cumulative exports from January to October reached 449,000 units, a substantial year-on-year increase of 59.1% [3]. Sales Structure - The sales of motorcycles in the 250cc to 400cc range in October were 36,000 units, down 8.5% year-on-year and 31.5% month-on-month, with cumulative sales of 445,000 units from January to October, up 26.7% year-on-year [5]. - The 400cc to 500cc segment saw sales of 10,000 units in October, a year-on-year decrease of 7.2% and a month-on-month decline of 33.5%. Cumulative sales for the year reached 196,000 units, down 2.2% year-on-year [5]. - The 500cc to 800cc segment experienced strong growth, with October sales of 13,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 33.2% and a month-on-month decrease of 24.1%. Cumulative sales reached 161,000 units, up 128.7% year-on-year [5]. - For motorcycles above 800cc, October sales were 2,000 units, a significant year-on-year increase of 98.1% and a month-on-month increase of 12.2%. Cumulative sales reached 20,000 units, up 70.5% year-on-year [5]. Company Performance - Chuanfeng Power led the sales of motorcycles above 250cc in October with 11,000 units sold, a year-on-year increase of 27.8% and a market share of 18.8% [6]. - Longxin General also sold 11,000 units in October, marking a year-on-year increase of 62.7% and a market share of 18.2% [7]. - Qianjiang Motorcycle's sales in October were 4,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 47.9% with a market share of 6.7% [7]. Future Outlook - The motorcycle market is expected to see continued growth driven by new model launches and increased export activities. Companies are focusing on high-end product development and expanding their presence in international markets [24][13]. - Chuanfeng Power plans to enhance its product lineup with new models in the 450cc and 650cc categories, which are anticipated to boost sales [13]. - Longxin General is deepening its focus on motorcycle exports, aiming to leverage its established market presence for future growth [14]. - Qianjiang Motorcycle is enhancing its product definition capabilities and is set to launch new models that could drive sales in 2025 [23].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Views - The company shows strong sales performance in October, with fuel motorcycle sales reaching 17,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 12.3% [1]. - The company is experiencing significant growth in its electric motorcycle segment, with sales of 28,000 units in October, representing a year-on-year increase of 141% [2]. - The four-wheeled beach vehicle exports also performed well, with sales of 19,000 units in October, up 43.3% year-on-year [3]. Summary by Sections Two-Wheeled Vehicles - The company’s 250cc+ motorcycle sales in October reached 11,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 27.8% [2]. - Cumulative sales from January to October for 250cc+ motorcycles reached 166,000 units, up 35.6% year-on-year, with market share increasing to 20.2% [2]. - The company’s electric motorcycle brand, Jike, saw sales of 253,000 units from January to October, a significant year-on-year increase [2]. Four-Wheeled Vehicles - The company is focusing on the U.S. market, with October sales of four-wheeled beach vehicles reaching 19,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 43.3% [3]. - Cumulative sales from January to October for four-wheeled vehicles reached 151,000 units, up 9.7% year-on-year [3]. - The company is expected to maintain its leading market share in Europe and continue expanding in the U.S. market [3]. Product Launches - At the 2025 Milan Show, the company unveiled its new flagship ADV motorcycle, featuring a 946cc engine and advanced electronic configurations [4]. - The performance flagship prototype, V4 SR-RR, was also showcased, featuring a 997cc V4 engine with over 210 horsepower [4]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 19.91 billion, 24.51 billion, and 29.50 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 1.86 billion, 2.38 billion, and 2.93 billion yuan [5][6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 12.19, 15.61, and 19.21 yuan for the same years [5][6].

相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国摩托车行业市场全景评估及发展策略分析报告》 根据中国海关数据显示：2025年9月中国内燃机摩托车出口数量为152万辆，同比增长26.7%，出口金额 为9.55亿美元，同比增长35.9%。 近一年中国内燃机摩托车出口情况统计图 数据来源：中国海关，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 ...

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting highlights the growth of China's motorcycle export market, with a significant increase in both quantity and value in 2025 [1] Export Performance - In September 2025, China exported 4.37 million motorcycles, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.5% [1] - The export value reached 1.582 billion USD, showing a year-on-year increase of 30.9% [1] Industry Analysis - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in in-depth industry research and providing comprehensive consulting services [1] - The firm has over a decade of experience in the industry research field, offering tailored solutions to support investment decisions [1]

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting highlights the growth of China's motorcycle export market, with a notable increase in both quantity and value in August 2025 [1] Export Performance - In August 2025, China exported 4.37 million motorcycles, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.4% [1] - The export value reached $1.654 billion, marking a year-on-year growth of 24.1% [1] Industry Analysis - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in in-depth industry research and providing comprehensive consulting services [1] - The firm has a strong focus on delivering tailored solutions to empower investment decisions through market insights and quality services [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report by Zhiyan Consulting highlights significant growth in China's motorcycle export market, with a notable increase in both quantity and value in April 2025 compared to the previous year [1]. Summary by Categories Export Performance - In April 2025, China exported 3.66 million motorcycles, representing a year-on-year increase of 36.9% [1]. - The export value reached $1.52 billion, which is a year-on-year growth of 38.4% [1]. Industry Insights - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in in-depth industry research and providing comprehensive consulting services [1]. - The firm has over a decade of experience in the industry research field, focusing on delivering tailored solutions to empower investment decisions [1].

Core Viewpoint - The motorcycle industry in China has undergone significant changes, transitioning from a period of rapid growth to facing challenges due to various factors, including government policies and market competition. Recent trends indicate a structural shift towards larger displacement motorcycles and electric vehicles, presenting new opportunities for growth and export [1][9]. Historical Context - The Chinese motorcycle industry began with the establishment of "Jialing," which marked the first domestically developed motorcycle in 1979. The JH70 model became a cultural icon in the 1980s and 1990s, symbolizing freedom and status [4][5]. - In 1995, Jialing achieved a production milestone of over one million units, earning the title of "King of Chinese Motorcycles." This success spurred the rise of other manufacturers in Chongqing, leading to a competitive landscape in the industry [5][7]. - By 2001, Chinese motorcycles had captured nearly 90% of the Vietnamese market, significantly impacting Japanese brands that previously dominated the region. However, aggressive price competition led to a decline in product quality and consumer trust, resulting in a loss of market share [7][8]. Recent Developments - Since 2019, the domestic motorcycle market has stabilized, with a notable increase in demand for motorcycles under 150cc due to favorable government policies and relaxed restrictions in certain cities. However, the growth of passenger cars and electric two-wheelers has marginalized the commuting role of small-displacement motorcycles [15]. - The popularity of large-displacement motorcycles surged during the pandemic, with a 90.5% increase in sales in 2021, indicating a growing market for recreational riding [15][17]. - The penetration rate of large-displacement motorcycles in China is currently around 6%, significantly lower than in the U.S. (95%) and Europe (60-70%), suggesting substantial growth potential [17]. Export Trends - The export of large-displacement motorcycles has become a trend, with exports increasing from 6.51 thousand units in 2019 to 35.90 thousand units in 2024, reflecting a growing share of the international market [19]. - In the first seven months of 2025, China's motorcycle exports reached 10.44 million units, a 31.29% increase year-on-year, with Latin America and Africa showing significant growth in both volume and value [21]. - The motorcycle industry is leveraging its strengths in product quality and cost-effectiveness to compete in international markets, particularly in Latin America and Africa, while also focusing on the growing demand for electric motorcycles [23].