本文约 3 0 0 0 字，推荐阅读时长 1 0 分钟，欢迎关注新财富公众号。 摩托车这个品类在国内很特殊，我国是世界上最大的摩托车产销国，也是世界上唯一一个大规模禁摩的国家。 从90年代到2008年，国内的摩托车工业都处在高速发展阶段，2008年销量达到巅峰的2750万辆，2008年之后国内禁摩政策限制、电动两轮车替代、汽车 工业迅速发展、共享经济崛起等等因素共同作用下，摩托车作为出行工具的属性不断被弱化，国内摩托车销量一直处在下滑区间。 一直到2019 年，摩托车产业不再是单一方向的下滑、萎缩，开始有了结构性变化：出口持续放量，大排量、休闲娱乐属性开始凸显，而电动化、玩法属 性、品牌化成为新的关键词。 0 1 从嘉陵到摩帮，20年前出口折戟 在探讨近年来摩托车产业变化之前，我们先回顾国内摩托车产业的历史，更能体会到20多年来摩托车产业的翻身巨变。 提起中国摩托车的起点，绕不开"嘉陵"二字。嘉陵的根子可以追溯到洋务运动的江南制造总局，而真正让它走进千家万户的，是1979年的那个决定 ——"军转民"，做摩托。次年，第一辆嘉陵50问世，虽然排量不大，却象征着中国人第一次真正拥有了自主研发的摩托车。 真正让嘉陵封 ...

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting highlights the growth of China's motorcycle export market, with a significant increase in both quantity and value in July 2025 [1] Group 1: Export Data - In July 2025, China's motorcycle export volume reached 4.43 million units, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.1% [1] - The export value for the same period was $1.708 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 24.3% [1] Group 2: Industry Analysis - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in in-depth industry research and providing comprehensive consulting services [1] - The firm has over a decade of experience in the industry research field, offering tailored solutions for investment decision-making [1]

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting highlights the growth of China's motorcycle export market, with a notable increase in both quantity and value in June 2025 [1] Group 1: Export Data - In June 2025, China's motorcycle export volume reached 4.25 million units, representing a year-on-year growth of 16% [1] - The export value for the same period was $1.704 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 14.7% [1] Group 2: Industry Analysis - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in in-depth industry research and providing comprehensive consulting services [1] - The firm has over a decade of experience in the industry research field, focusing on delivering tailored solutions to support investment decisions [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chuanfeng Power, indicating a positive outlook on the company's growth potential in the all-terrain vehicle (ATV) and motorcycle sectors [6]. Core Insights - Chuanfeng Power has experienced significant growth since its listing in 2017, with a market capitalization increase of 13.3 times and an annualized return of 38% [3]. - The all-terrain vehicle market is approximately 950,000 to 1,000,000 units, with North America being the largest market, accounting for about 80% of global sales [3][69]. - The company has successfully expanded its product lines, including ATVs, motorcycles, and electric two-wheelers, with revenue contributions of 48%, 40%, and 3% respectively in 2024 [21]. - The report highlights the potential for Chuanfeng Power to double its all-terrain vehicle revenue by 2030, driven by new product launches and market expansion [4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Chuanfeng Power has evolved from a parts manufacturer to a leading player in the ATV and motorcycle markets, with significant milestones including entering the ATV market in 2005 and launching its electric motorcycle brand ZEEHO in 2020 [11]. Stock Price Review - The stock price of Chuanfeng Power has been influenced by product cycles, external tariffs, shipping costs, and exchange rate fluctuations, with long-term growth driven by business expansion and product cycles [3][31]. All-Terrain Vehicles - The all-terrain vehicle segment has seen a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 32% from 2019 to 2024, with revenue increasing from 1.83 billion to 7.21 billion yuan [3]. - Chuanfeng Power's market share in the U.S. increased from 5.8% in 2020 to 17.6% in 2022, capitalizing on supply shortages faced by competitors during the pandemic [3]. Motorcycles - The motorcycle segment has also shown robust growth, with revenue rising from 1.15 billion to 6.04 billion yuan from 2019 to 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 39% [5]. - The domestic market for recreational motorcycles has expanded significantly, with sales increasing from 140,000 units in 2020 to 400,000 units in 2024 [5]. ZEEHO Brand - The ZEEHO brand is projected to achieve sales of 600,000 to 700,000 units by 2025, with significant growth potential similar to that of other successful electric motorcycle brands [6]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report anticipates continued growth across all three business segments (ATVs, motorcycles, and ZEEHO), suggesting that Chuanfeng Power should command a higher valuation due to its leading market position [6].

Core Viewpoint - Motorcycle exports possess three rare attributes: overseas sales potential is over ten times that of the domestic market; core markets are Europe and Latin America, while the U.S. market accounts for less than 1% of global capacity; domestic brands have undergone a qualitative leap in product strength over the past five years, with overseas market share currently below 5%, expected to accelerate from 1% to 10% [1][2]. Market Analysis - The global market for 250cc+ large displacement motorcycles is approximately 3.6 million units, with the overseas market space nearly ten times that of the domestic market. Domestic brands are focusing on Europe and Latin America [2]. - The European motorcycle market has a total size of about 1.84 million units, primarily consisting of large displacement models, with a penetration rate of nearly 60% for 250cc and above. The projected sales for 250cc+ large displacement motorcycles in 2024 is around 1.08 million units, with a preference for high-end models in the 600cc to 1000cc range [2]. - The Americas motorcycle market has an overall capacity of approximately 6.88 million units, with the U.S. market around 500,000 units, primarily focusing on super large displacement models. The Latin American market capacity reaches 6.26 million units, with a projected sales volume of about 500,000 units for 250cc+ models [3]. - The Asian motorcycle market has a total capacity of about 47.55 million units, with penetration rates for 250cc+ models at 8.6% in China and 25% in Japan. The total sales for 250cc+ models in Asia is estimated at 1.34 million units [3]. Company Insights - Changan Power has successfully adopted a "premium" strategy, rapidly gaining international recognition. The company has exported products to over 100 countries, with sales increasing from 8,000 units in 2020 to 126,000 units in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 96.99% [4]. - Longxin General has achieved rapid growth, transitioning from "product export" to "brand export." The brand has gained recognition in the European market, with 76% of export revenue coming from Europe, and sales of the Longxin DS900X exceeding 10,000 units [4]. - Qianjiang Motorcycle, a veteran in the large displacement segment, has elevated its international strategy to a top priority, focusing on markets in Europe, Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa [5].

Group 1 - The motorcycle export market has three rare attributes: overseas sales potential is over ten times that of the domestic market [1] - The core markets for motorcycle exports are Europe and Latin America, while the US market accounts for less than 1% of the global total capacity [1] - The product strength of domestic brands has undergone a significant qualitative change in the past five years, with overseas market share currently below 5%, indicating potential for rapid growth from 1% to 10% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's internal combustion motorcycle exports have shown significant growth in both quantity and value in May 2025, indicating a strong market performance [1] - The export quantity reached 1.64 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 25.1% [1] - The export value amounted to $1.011 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 27.5% [1] Group 2 - The data is sourced from China Customs and organized by Zhiyan Consulting, a leading industry consulting firm in China [3]

Group 1 - In May 2025, China's motorcycle exports reached 4.03 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 25.2% [1] - The export value for motorcycles was $1.662 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 21.5% [1] - The data is sourced from Chinese customs and organized by Zhiyan Consulting [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the motorcycle industry [1] Core Insights - The motorcycle export market remains robust, with a year-on-year growth of 25% in the first half of 2025, indicating a strong demand for motorcycles [9][15] - The overall motorcycle sales in the first half of 2025 reached 8.317 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 19% [15] - The report highlights significant growth in the sales of motorcycles with engine displacement greater than 250cc, which saw a 41% increase year-on-year [15] Industry Data Update - Total motorcycle sales (domestic and export) for January to June 2025: 8.317 million units, up 19% year-on-year - Domestic sales: 2.226 million units, down 3.5% year-on-year - Export sales: 6.091 million units, up 25% year-on-year [15][16] - Breakdown of sales by engine displacement: - Sales of motorcycles with 150cc < displacement ≤ 250cc: 970,000 units, up 13% year-on-year - Sales of motorcycles with displacement > 250cc: 502,000 units, up 41% year-on-year [15][16] Company Data Update Chuanfeng Power - Total sales for January to June 2025: 143,000 units, up 10% year-on-year - Sales of motorcycles with 150cc < displacement ≤ 250cc: 25,300 units, down 49% year-on-year - Sales of motorcycles with displacement > 250cc: 108,400 units, up 45% year-on-year [25] Qianjiang Motorcycle - Total sales for January to June 2025: 202,000 units, down 10% year-on-year - Sales of motorcycles with 150cc < displacement ≤ 250cc: 33,000 units, up 12% year-on-year - Sales of motorcycles with displacement > 250cc: 70,000 units, down 4% year-on-year [34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the motorcycle industry [1] Core Insights - The motorcycle export volume in May 2025 reached 1.59 million units, showing a year-on-year increase of 24.8% [9] - The export of motorcycles with displacement greater than 250cc saw a significant year-on-year growth of 33.4% [9] - Major export regions include Latin America (562,000 units), Africa (489,000 units), and Asia (371,000 units) [15] - The overall export growth rate for motorcycles has consistently exceeded 24% each month from January to May 2025 [17] Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The motorcycle industry has shown a strong performance relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, with a 12-month return of 23.2% compared to 9.8% for the index [4] Export Analysis - In May 2025, motorcycle exports to Africa and Latin America continued to maintain high growth rates, with Africa showing an impressive year-on-year increase of 82.6% [9][15] - The export of motorcycles with displacement less than or equal to 250cc totaled 1.51 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 24.4% [9] Regional Performance - The top export destinations for Chinese motorcycles in May 2025 were Latin America, Africa, and Asia, with respective export volumes of 562,000, 489,000, and 371,000 units [15] - The year-on-year growth rates for exports to various regions were as follows: Latin America (3.0%), Africa (82.6%), Asia (20.3%), and Europe (18.9%) [9][15] Displacement Segmentation - The export of motorcycles with displacement less than or equal to 50cc increased by 8.8%, while those in the 50-100cc range surged by 136.9% [16] - The segment of motorcycles with displacement greater than 250cc has shown robust growth, particularly in the 500-800cc category, which grew by 97.8% [16]