Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the motorcycle sector [1] Core Insights - Yamaha's motorcycle revenue has shown steady growth, increasing from 930.1 billion JPY in FY2016 to 1,578.1 billion JPY in FY2025, with a CAGR of approximately 6.1%. However, motorcycle sales decreased from 5.154 million units to 4.999 million units during the same period, reflecting a CAGR of approximately -0.3% [9][27] - The average price of Yamaha motorcycles is projected to rise from 50,000 RMB to 69,700 RMB from FY2021 to FY2025, with a CAGR of approximately 8.7% [9][27] - The global motorcycle demand is estimated at 49.94 million units in 2023, with a projected CAGR of approximately 2% from 2024 to 2027 [11][15] - Yamaha aims to achieve a market share of 9.7% in FY2023, with specific targets of 31% in the high-end market by 2024 and 42% by 2027 in ASEAN and emerging markets, as well as 13% in Europe by 2027 [11][23] Summary by Sections Global Motorcycle Market and Yamaha's Share - The global motorcycle demand for 2023 is 49.94 million units, with a projected CAGR of approximately 2% from 2024 to 2027 [11][15] - Yamaha's target market share for FY2027 includes 31% in the high-end market by 2024 and 42% by 2027 in ASEAN and emerging markets, along with a 13% share in Europe [11][23] Yamaha Motorcycle Revenue and Sales Breakdown - Yamaha's motorcycle revenue is expected to grow steadily, with FY2025 projections showing sales of 76,000 units in Japan, 79,000 units in North America, 210,000 units in Europe, 3,903,000 units in Asia, and 73,100 units in other regions [12][34] - The average price of Yamaha motorcycles in FY2025 is projected to be 55.7 million JPY in Japan, 111.3 million JPY in North America, 112.6 million JPY in Europe, 22.8 million JPY in Asia, and 44.1 million JPY in other regions [34][28] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that domestic brands have significant potential for overseas expansion, as their export prices still lag behind those of Japanese motorcycle companies. The motorcycle sector maintains a "Recommended" rating, with key recommendations including Chunfeng Power and Longxin General, and a suggestion to pay attention to Qianjiang Motorcycle [12][40]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the motorcycle industry [1] Core Insights - The motorcycle export market remains robust, with a year-on-year growth of 27% in January 2026, totaling 1.26 million units exported [10][14] - Domestic sales in January 2026 reached 340,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17% [14] - The overall motorcycle sales (domestic and export) for January 2026 amounted to 1.6 million units, marking a 27% year-on-year growth [14] Industry Data Update - In January 2026, the motorcycle sales by displacement categories were as follows: - Sales of motorcycles with displacement between 150cc and 250cc reached 170,000 units, up 13% year-on-year [15] - Sales of motorcycles with displacement over 250cc totaled 64,000 units, up 8% year-on-year [15] - The total sales for motorcycles in January 2026 included 340,000 units domestically and 1.26 million units exported [14][19] Company Data Update - **Chunfeng Power**: - Total sales in January 2026 were 19,000 units, a 44% increase year-on-year [22] - Electric motorcycle sales surged by 208% year-on-year, totaling 29,000 units [22] - **Qianjiang Motorcycle**: - Total sales in January 2026 were 35,000 units, down 4% year-on-year [29] - Sales of motorcycles with displacement between 150cc and 250cc increased by 141% year-on-year [29] - **Longxin General**: - Total sales in January 2026 were 81,000 units, down 42% year-on-year [37] - Sales of motorcycles with displacement over 250cc increased by 28% year-on-year [37]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the motorcycle industry [1] Core Insights - The motorcycle export market remains robust, with a year-on-year sales increase of 20% for total exports in 2025, reaching 12.6 million units [5][15] - The overall motorcycle sales for 2025 reached 16.99 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16% [15] - The sales of motorcycles with engine displacement greater than 250cc increased by 26% year-on-year, totaling 950,000 units [15][16] Industry Data Update - Total motorcycle sales (domestic + export) for 2025: 16.99 million units, with domestic sales of 4.39 million units (down 4% YoY) and exports of 12.6 million units (up 20% YoY) [5][15] - Breakdown of sales by engine displacement: - 150cc < displacement ≤ 250cc: 2.04 million units (up 8% YoY) - Displacement > 250cc: 950,000 units (up 26% YoY) [16][20] Company Tracking - **Chunfeng Power**: - Total motorcycle sales: 260,000 units (up 4% YoY) - Sales of electric motorcycles: 300,000 units (up 420% YoY) [6][24] - **Qianjiang Motorcycle**: - Total motorcycle sales: 383,000 units (down 12% YoY) - Sales of motorcycles with displacement > 250cc: 114,000 units (down 10% YoY) [7][30] - **Longxin General**: - Total motorcycle sales: 1.34 million units (down 15% YoY) - Sales of motorcycles with displacement > 250cc: 140,000 units (up 32% YoY) [8][18]

相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国摩托车行业市场全景评估及发展策略分析报告》 数据来源：中国海关，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 根据中国海关数据显示：2025年11月中国摩托车出口数量为383万辆，同比增长30.5%，出口金额为 15.75亿美元，同比增长36%。 近一年中国摩托车出口情况统计图 ...

S0350524100004 zhangyy03@ghzq.com.cn 证券研究报告 2025年12月21日 机械设备 机械行业专题报告： 摩托车行业2025年11月海关数据更新 评级：推荐(维持) 张钰莹(证券分析师) 相对沪深300表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 机械设备 | 2.9% | -1.7% | 29.6% | | 沪深300 | -0.4% | 1.5% | 15.8% | 请务必阅读报告附注中的风险提示和免责声明 2 摘要 -12% -2% 9% 20% 30% 41% 2024/12/19 2025/03/19 2025/06/17 2025/09/15 2025/12/14 机械设备 沪深300 《机械行业专题报告：摩托车行业2025年1-11月数据更新（推荐）*机械设备* 张钰莹》——2025-12-20 《机械行业专题报告：摩托车行业2025年1-10月数据更新（推荐）*机械设备* 张钰莹》——2025-11-16 最近一年走势 相关报告 《机械行业专题报告：摩托车行业2025年10月海关数据更新（推荐）* ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The motorcycle industry is experiencing a shift with policy support and market optimization, indicating a potential turning point in high prosperity for the sector in 2025 [1][2][5] - The electric two-wheeler market is driven by trade-in policies, but the effectiveness of these policies is diminishing, leading to a subdued sales performance post-implementation of new national standards [1][12] Key Insights on Motorcycle Market - In 2025, the domestic sales growth of large-displacement motorcycles is expected to stabilize, with a projected year-on-year growth of single digits from January to October, maintaining levels similar to the previous year [2][5] - The top companies in the large-displacement motorcycle segment, such as Chuanfeng Power, Longxin General, and Qianjiang Motorcycle, hold a market share of approximately 20%-30% and are likely to benefit from the expansion of the leisure consumer base [3][5] Export Performance - China’s motorcycle exports are robust, with 110cc and above motorcycle exports increasing by 24% year-on-year, and 250cc and above models seeing a 60% increase [6][9] - The overseas market, particularly in North America, South America, and Europe, presents significant growth potential, with the total global motorcycle sales exceeding 50 million units annually [6][9] Competitive Landscape - Chinese brands are narrowing the performance gap with Japanese brands through improved product features and supply chain advantages, achieving a market share of over 5% in Europe [7][8] - The Turkish market is experiencing short-term challenges due to currency fluctuations, impacting sales for companies heavily reliant on exports, but long-term growth prospects remain positive [9][10] Electric Two-Wheeler Market Insights - The electric two-wheeler market is expected to grow by approximately 10% in 2025, driven by trade-in policies, although the impact of these policies is expected to wane in 2026 [12][14] - Major players like Yadi and Aima are positioned to capture market share due to the challenges faced by smaller companies, especially in light of new national standards [12][13] Recommendations - The motorcycle sector is recommended for investment, particularly in companies like Chuanfeng Power and Longxin General, which are expected to outperform the industry average growth in 2026 [4][11][18] - For the electric two-wheeler segment, companies such as Yadi, Aima, and 9号 are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of market share opportunities in 2026, provided they can adapt to new market conditions [18] Additional Considerations - The electric golf cart market is primarily concentrated in North America, with significant growth expected, particularly in the outdoor segment where Chinese brands hold a substantial market share [15][16] - Chinese electric golf cart manufacturers are responding to anti-dumping measures by relocating production to Southeast Asia, which is expected to enhance their competitive position in the North American market [17]

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting highlights the growth of China's motorcycle export market, with a notable increase in both quantity and value in 2025 [1] Export Performance - In October 2025, China exported 3.91 million motorcycles, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.9% [1] - The export value reached $1.388 billion, showing an increase of 11.1% compared to the previous year [1] Industry Analysis - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in in-depth industry research and providing comprehensive consulting services [1] - The firm has a strong focus on delivering tailored solutions to empower investment decisions through its market insights and quality services [1]

2025年10月我国摩托车出口保持较高景气度 智通财经APP获悉，国海证券发布研报称，摩托车出口仍然保持较高景气度，2025年10月摩托车出口 yoy+10%，景气持续，维持"推荐"评级。从出口总量维度看，亚非拉为主要出口地区，非洲和亚洲继续 保持较高增速，分别同比+15.0%/+42.9%。从出口>250cc维度看，除拉丁美洲外同比均保持增长。 国海证券主要观点如下： 主要的出口地区非洲和亚洲仍然保持较高增速 从出口>250cc维度看，2025年10月核心出口国家或区域及增速如下：拉丁美洲：出口33836台，同 比-17%;欧洲：出口21481台，同比+72%;亚洲：出口5451台，同比+48%;北美洲：出口958台，同比 +594%;非洲：出口1053台，同比+23%;大洋洲：出口671台，同比+36%。 风险提示：中大排量摩托车增速不及预期;禁限摩政策影响;关税加征风险;市场需求下行风险;汇率波动 风险;原材料价格大幅度波动风险;中美贸易摩擦超预期风险;本数据为跟踪数据，仅供参考，不构成投资 建议。 根据海关总署，总体来看，摩托车出口保持较高同比增速：2025年10月，摩托车出口141万辆， yoy+1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the motorcycle industry [1] Core Insights - The motorcycle export volume in October 2025 reached 1.41 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10% [8] - The export growth is driven primarily by the ≤250cc motorcycles, which also saw a 10% year-on-year increase, while the >250cc segment grew by 9% [8] - Major export regions include Latin America (563,000 units), Africa (448,000 units), and Asia (301,000 units), with Africa and Asia showing significant growth rates of 15% and 42.9% respectively [8][12] - The overall export growth for motorcycles in October 2025 indicates a sustained high level of market activity, justifying the "Recommended" rating [8] Summary by Sections Export Performance - In October 2025, motorcycle exports totaled 1.41 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 10% [8] - The breakdown by displacement shows that ≤250cc motorcycles accounted for 1.35 million units, while >250cc motorcycles accounted for 60,000 units [8] - The primary export destinations for Chinese motorcycles are Latin America, Africa, and Asia, with respective export volumes of 563,000, 448,000, and 301,000 units [12] Regional Growth Analysis - Year-on-year growth rates for major regions in October 2025 are as follows: Latin America (-3.7%), Africa (+15.0%), Asia (+42.9%), Europe (-5.9%), North America (+2.9%), and Oceania (-17.5%) [8] - Notably, the African and Asian markets continue to show robust growth, contributing significantly to the overall export performance [8] Monthly Export Trends - Monthly data from January to October 2025 indicates that the year-on-year growth rate for motorcycle exports consistently exceeded 9% [13] - The highest growth rates were observed in the 50-100cc and 500-800cc segments, with increases of 142.4% and 182.1% respectively [14] Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the motorcycle export market remains vibrant, with a sustained year-on-year growth of 10% in October 2025, reinforcing the positive outlook for the industry [8] - The analysis suggests that the motorcycle industry is well-positioned to capitalize on ongoing demand in key international markets [8]

Event Overview - In October, the company's fuel motorcycle sales reached 17,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 12.3% but a month-on-month decrease of 1.2% [2] - The sales of the Jike electric motorcycle (excluding self-produced) were 28,000 units, showing significant year-on-year growth [2] - The export sales of four-wheeled beach vehicles reached 19,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 43.3% and a month-on-month increase of 14.3% [2] Two-Wheeled Vehicles: Export Sales and Jike Development - For large-displacement motorcycles (250cc+), October sales were 11,000 units, up 27.8% year-on-year but down 13.8% month-on-month; cumulative sales from January to October reached 166,000 units, a 35.6% year-on-year increase, with market share rising to 20.2% [3] - The new high-end 675cc three-cylinder model sold 55,000 units, a remarkable year-on-year increase of 510.5%, indicating ongoing product structure optimization [3] - The company's two-wheeled motorcycle exports saw a year-on-year recovery, with October sales of 11,000 units, up 50.1% year-on-year and 2.8% month-on-month; cumulative exports from January to October reached 116,000 units, a 20.6% year-on-year increase [3] - The Jike electric motorcycle sales for January to October reached 253,000 units, a substantial year-on-year increase, with the Jike brand expanding its channels domestically and internationally [3] Four-Wheeled Vehicles: U.S. Market Expansion and High-End Layout - In October, the export sales of four-wheeled beach vehicles were 19,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 43.3% and a month-on-month increase of 14.3%, nearing a historical monthly high; cumulative sales from January to October reached 151,000 units, a 9.7% year-on-year increase [4] - The company is maintaining a steady growth trend, with plans to continue leading the European market in market share and expanding in the U.S. market [4] - The core new product U10PRO has gained attention for its performance and quality upgrades, driving an increase in the average selling price (ASP) of four-wheeled vehicles [4] 2025 Milan Exhibition: New High-End Models - The new flagship ADV: 1000 MT-X features a 946cc twin-cylinder engine with a maximum power of 83kW (approximately 113 horsepower) and a maximum torque of 105N·m, equipped with advanced electronic configurations and comfort features [5] - The performance flagship prototype V4 SR-RR showcases the company's technical prowess, featuring a 997cc 90° V4 engine with a power output exceeding 157kW (approximately 210 horsepower) and advanced aerodynamic design [5] Long-Term Outlook - The company is optimistic about the export of two-wheeled vehicles and the high-end layout of four-wheeled vehicles, projecting revenues of 19.91 billion, 24.51 billion, and 29.50 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with net profits of 1.86 billion, 2.38 billion, and 2.93 billion yuan respectively [6] - The expected EPS for the same period is 12.19, 15.61, and 19.21 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 20, 16, and 13 times [6] - The closing price on November 14, 2025, was 242.36 yuan per share [6] Financial Projections | Item/Year | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Revenue (Million Yuan) | 15,038 | 19,914 | 24,514 | 29,502 | | Growth Rate (%) | 24.2 | 32.4 | 23.1 | 20.3 | | Net Profit (Million Yuan) | 1,472 | 1,860 | 2,382 | 2,931 | | Growth Rate (%) | 46.1 | 26.4 | 28.0 | 23.0 | | EPS (Yuan) | 9.65 | 12.19 | 15.61 | 19.21 | | PE | 25 | 20 | 16 | 13 | | PB | 6.0 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 3.3 | [8]