5年期利率远期合约

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花旗紧急“喊单”:加大对美债收益率曲线趋陡、美元走弱的押注!
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-08-28 00:36
Group 1 - Citigroup strategists recommend increasing bets against the performance of long-term U.S. Treasury bonds and a decline in the dollar, primarily due to President Trump's potential to undermine the political independence of the Federal Reserve [1] - The strategists suggest adding small positions to existing bets, specifically betting that 30-year interest rate futures will underperform compared to 5-year contracts, leading to a steeper yield curve [1] - Concerns about the weakening of the Federal Reserve's independence are expected to manifest through a weaker dollar and a steepening yield curve [1] Group 2 - Following Trump's announcement to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, the spread between 30-year and 5-year U.S. Treasury yields reached its highest level since 2001 [2] - Trump's unprecedented dismissal has heightened market fears that the Federal Reserve may be forced to cut rates due to political pressure, which could increase future inflation risks [2] - Despite the restructuring risks within the Federal Reserve's decision-making body, the dollar has not shown significant weakness, potentially due to renewed fiscal concerns in France [2]