花旗集团的策略师们退出了一个押注长期美国国债将在对美联储的攻击加剧时，表现逊于短期国债的交 易建议，他们表示，上周一项近乎一致的政策决定，"在边际上"减少了对央行独立性的担忧。 包括Dirk Willer和Adam Pickett在内的策略师，建议客户在该交易触及移动止损后，对押注30年期利率远 期合约将落后于5年期合约的头寸进行获利了结。 他们在5月份于两者差值为40个基点的水平上发起了该交易，并在8月份于72个基点的水平上增持了该头 寸，最终在60个基点的水平上退出。 美联储理事沃勒和鲍曼二人在7月份都曾提出鸽派异议，这次则与同事们站在了一边。 "自我们5月份发起交易以来，对长期国债的供应担忧似乎已变得更为温和，"花旗的策略师写道。他们 说，本月的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）政策会议"在边际上减少了对美联储独立性的担忧"。 此外，策略师们补充说，过去在软着陆情景下的美联储宽松周期"都相当浅"，这限制了"牛市陡峭化"的 潜力。"因此，我们暂时离场观望。" 花旗四个月前的最初建议，是基于对美国总统特朗普标志性的税收和支出法案将使政府债务膨胀，从而 对较长期债务构成压力的预期。他们在8月下旬增持了该赌注，当时 ...

Group 1 - Citigroup strategists recommend increasing bets against the performance of long-term U.S. Treasury bonds and a decline in the dollar, primarily due to President Trump's potential to undermine the political independence of the Federal Reserve [1] - The strategists suggest adding small positions to existing bets, specifically betting that 30-year interest rate futures will underperform compared to 5-year contracts, leading to a steeper yield curve [1] - Concerns about the weakening of the Federal Reserve's independence are expected to manifest through a weaker dollar and a steepening yield curve [1] Group 2 - Following Trump's announcement to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, the spread between 30-year and 5-year U.S. Treasury yields reached its highest level since 2001 [2] - Trump's unprecedented dismissal has heightened market fears that the Federal Reserve may be forced to cut rates due to political pressure, which could increase future inflation risks [2] - Despite the restructuring risks within the Federal Reserve's decision-making body, the dollar has not shown significant weakness, potentially due to renewed fiscal concerns in France [2]