谢尔曼表示，"我们持有大家都在谈论的相同交易，"该交易包括买入2年期国债和做空10年期国债。当 市场预期美联储更接近降息时，这种交易往往会受到青睐。 这种情况通常有利于两年期国债，后者对货币政策的变化特别敏感。与此同时，降息可能会引发通胀担 忧，推高长期收益率。 他表示，他持有这一头寸已有约10个月，赌的是收益率曲线将变陡。 智通财经APP获悉，双线资本的副首席投资官杰弗里·谢尔曼是支持一项债券交易的投资者之一，该交 易已成为对冲美国总统特朗普试图解雇美联储主席风险的首选方式。 但还有一种可能是，总统很快就会提名鲍威尔的继任者，投资者将开始更多地关注特朗普提名的任何 人，即使鲍威尔完成任期。 谢尔曼表示，"影子美联储"的想法将有助于交易。他在其Opportunistic Core Bond交易所交易基金中持有 这一头寸。 最近，由于经济的韧性限制了美联储放松政策的能力，这一交易大多停滞不前。但交易员们押注特朗普 选择的下一任主席更有可能按照他降息的意愿行事。 谢尔曼表示："市场将看穿鲍威尔的任期，认为新主席一上任就会降息。" 上周，有报道称特朗普即将寻求替换美联储鲍威尔，这一交易重新受到关注。鲍威尔的任期将于 ...

Group 1 - The core view is that the US economy remains the cornerstone of the global financial market, with a "soft landing" scenario being the most likely outcome at 65% probability, indicating a moderate slowdown without entering recession [1] - Economic growth in the US is expected to continue at a steady pace, supported by strong real income growth driven by government fiscal support, despite uncertainties from government policies [2] - The labor market will be a key factor in reassessing economic outlooks, particularly with the recent rise in initial jobless claims [2] Group 2 - The European Central Bank has acknowledged that the interest rate cut cycle is nearing its end, with limited rationale for further cuts due to improving economic growth and increasing fiscal stimulus [2] - The UK economy shows signs of a slowing labor market and cooling inflationary pressures, with market expectations for the final benchmark interest rate to remain relatively high, presenting investment opportunities [2] Group 3 - The company maintains a neutral stance on overall bond duration but favors a steepening yield curve strategy, expecting shorter-term bonds to outperform longer-term bonds [3] - A downgrade has been made on the US CDX high yield index due to diminished valuation advantages, while maintaining a negative outlook on overall investment-grade bonds due to high valuations [3] - US government agency mortgage-backed securities are viewed as a preferred choice in fixed income asset allocation due to higher yields and lower volatility compared to US investment-grade corporate bonds [3]