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泸州老窖(000568)2025年中报点评:降速减负 加速出清
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-01 06:44
Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with a significant drop in Q2 performance, indicating challenges in the market and adjustments in sales strategies [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a total revenue of 16.45 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, down 2.7% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.66 billion yuan, down 4.5% [1]. - In Q2 alone, total revenue was 7.10 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.0%, and net profit was 3.07 billion yuan, down 11.1% [1]. - Sales collection in Q2 was 8.08 billion yuan, down 15.1%, with operating cash flow net amounting to 2.76 billion yuan, a decline of 28.7% [1]. Product and Market Analysis - For the first half of the year, revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor decreased by 1.1%, while sales volume increased by 13.3%, indicating a drop in average price per ton by 12.7% [2]. - Other liquor categories saw a revenue decline of 17.0%, with sales volume and price per ton both decreasing by 6.9% and 10.8% respectively, attributed to high channel inventory and reduced product launches [2]. - The core markets of Southwest and North China experienced slight pressure, while regions like Northwest and Henan are still in an adjustment phase [2]. Profitability and Cash Flow - Q2 gross margin decreased by 1.0 percentage points to 87.9%, primarily due to structural changes [3]. - The tax rate increased by 3.7 percentage points to 15.4%, likely due to misalignment in production and sales schedules affecting consumption tax [3]. - The net profit margin fell by 1.5 percentage points to 43.2%, with operating cash flow reflecting a similar decline to revenue [3]. Strategic Adjustments and Future Outlook - The company is proactively managing channel pressures and inventory levels, with a focus on stabilizing core product pricing and enhancing digital infrastructure [3]. - The company plans to introduce new products, including a 28-degree version of Guojiao 1573, to strengthen its low-alcohol product lineup [3]. - A three-year dividend plan has been established, with a minimum payout ratio of 65% for 2024, 70% for 2025, and 75% for 2026, enhancing long-term investment appeal [4]. Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to continue its adjustments and inventory management, which may stabilize the value chain in the second half of the year [4]. - The target price remains at 206 yuan, with a strong buy rating maintained based on the latest operational insights [4].