Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue at 14.796 billion yuan, down 35.32% year-on-year, and net profit at 4.344 billion yuan, down 45.34% year-on-year [2] - The company is in a phase of inventory destocking and has shown a strong intention to clear risks, with a notable increase in contract liabilities [4] - The company has implemented strict supply controls for its premium products, which has contributed to the decline in sales [5] - The company’s performance in its home province is stronger than in other regions, reflecting its brand strength and channel capabilities [6] - The decline in profitability is primarily attributed to increased expense ratios, which have diluted earnings despite stable product margins [7][8] Financial Summary - The company has adjusted its revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with expected revenues revised down to 19.975 billion yuan for 2025, and net profits adjusted to 4.427 billion yuan for the same year [9] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast has been lowered to 2.94 yuan for 2025, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 25, 20, and 19 for 2025-2027 [9] - The company’s gross margin is projected to decline slightly to 71.9% in 2025, with net profit margins expected to be around 22.2% [10]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street investment banks believe that Kweichow Moutai's Q2 performance meets market expectations, with the high-end liquor market showing resilience, while the series liquor segment is underperforming due to policy impacts [1][3] Financial Performance - Kweichow Moutai's Q2 revenue grew by 7.3% year-on-year, reaching 39.65 billion RMB, and net profit increased by 5.2% to 18.56 billion RMB [4] - The core product, Moutai liquor, saw an 11% year-on-year revenue growth, contributing significantly to overall profitability [4][5] - The overall sales growth for the first half of the year was 9.1%, indicating the company is on track to meet its annual growth targets [4] Challenges - The series liquor segment experienced a revenue decline of approximately 7% year-on-year, reflecting intensified competition and weak consumer demand in the mid-range market [2][6] - A significant drop in "pre-receivable accounts" by about 45% year-on-year indicates reduced willingness from distributors to stock up, suggesting a channel inventory reduction [2][7] Market Outlook - Investment banks maintain "overweight" or "buy" ratings for Kweichow Moutai, viewing it as a core holding in the Chinese consumer sector despite short-term challenges [3][8] - Current valuations have absorbed negative factors, with forward P/E ratios around 18-19 times, close to the valuation lows seen at the end of 2018 [1][11] - Analysts are closely monitoring potential catalysts for demand recovery, such as the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and anticipated fiscal stimulus policies [8][11]

Core Viewpoint - The liquor industry is facing sales pressure, with significant short-term performance decline for Zhenjiu and Lidu, as they focus on market relief and inventory control [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - Zhenjiu and Lidu expect revenue for the first half of 2025 to be between 2.4 billion to 2.55 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 38.3% to 41.9% [1] - Expected net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to decrease by 23% to 24%, with adjusted net profit (non-IFRS) anticipated to decline by 39% to 40% [1] Group 2: Market Challenges - The decline in liquor consumption is attributed to economic uncertainties and recent policy impacts, particularly affecting business banquets, social gatherings, and gift-giving scenarios [1] - The high-end product segment, particularly Zhen30 and above, is impacted by downward price adjustments in premium liquor, leading to a focus on volume control and price stabilization [1] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to launch a new flagship product, Dazhen, in June 2025, targeting a market gap between Zhen15 and Zhen30, with positive sales progress expected [2] - The chairman is actively promoting the brand through personal marketing efforts on social media platforms [2] - The company aims to enhance its existing flagship products' competitive edge through refined sales strategies and increased market penetration [2] Group 4: Product Expansion - A high-end beer brand named "Niushi" is set to launch on August 8, with the first product priced at 88 yuan per 375ml aluminum bottle [2] - The company is focusing on emerging consumer trends and plans to develop products tailored for specific occasions like birthdays and weddings [2] Group 5: Long-term Growth Potential - The company is recognized as a rare listed entity in the liquor sector, with strong operational momentum and significant future growth potential [2] - Zhenjiu is positioned in the second tier of the liquor market, with opportunities to leverage brand and channel advantages in a concentrated market [2] - Lidu is seen as a rising star in the high-end segment, with innovative marketing strategies enhancing its market presence [2]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Company sales declined 14% year-over-year, with pricing down 9% and volume down 1% [16][17] - First quarter EBITDA declined 25% due to lower pricing and FX headwinds [21] - Free cash flow in the first quarter was negative $596 million, significantly lower than the prior year [35] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Plant Health business outperformed the portfolio with sales up 1% year-over-year, driven by biologicals [17] - North America experienced a sales decline of 28%, primarily due to lower volume from cautious purchases [18] - Latin America grew 17% excluding FX headwinds, with increased direct sales to cotton growers in Brazil [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - A strong U.S. Dollar led to a 4% FX headwind [31] - Asia saw a sales decline of 21% excluding currency impacts, driven by prudent selling and lower prices [20] - EMEA reported 7% lower sales excluding currency impact due to lower volumes [20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on reducing channel inventory and implementing a post-patent strategy for Renexapia [6][11] - A new route to market in Brazil is being established to sell directly to large corn and soybean growers, expected to provide significant growth opportunities [11][12] - The growth portfolio is positioned to deliver strong growth with new active ingredients expected to perform well in 2025 [12][13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving financial objectives for 2025, with expectations for significant momentum in the second half of the year [38] - The company anticipates revenue growth of 7% in the second half, driven by new products and the new route to market in Brazil [29] - Management noted that the impact of tariffs is manageable and will not significantly hinder reaching 2025 goals [28] Other Important Information - The effective tax rate on adjusted earnings was 14% in the first quarter, with expectations for a full-year rate of 13% to 15% [33] - Gross debt increased to approximately $4 billion due to seasonal working capital build [34] - The company expects free cash flow of $200 million to $400 million for 2025, a decrease from the prior year [35] Q&A Session Summary Question: Price trends in the crop protection market outside of diamides - Management indicated that pricing comparisons will ease in the second half of the year, with expectations for more stability [41][42] Question: Guidance on strong growth in the second half of the year - Management expressed high confidence in revenue growth driven by new products and a healthy channel situation starting in Q3 [46][49] Question: Actions to offset tariff impacts - Management clarified that cost-saving actions were planned regardless of tariffs and that they are confident in offsetting the tariff headwinds [54][56] Question: Reducing channel inventories - Management explained that they shifted focus to promoting products directly to growers, avoiding the need for significant rebates or discounts [62] Question: Updates on the DaiMod strategy - Management confirmed that pricing is lower compared to last year, and they are confident in maintaining competitiveness with generic manufacturers [66][68] Question: Customer order patterns - Management noted that customer orders are picking up speed in Q2, with a positive outlook for demand [82][84] Question: Differences between selling directly to farmers and through the channel - Management indicated that EBIT margins are similar for both sales methods, with cash conversion linked more to regional dynamics [88][90] Question: Second half EBITDA bridge - Management explained that the pricing and FX headwinds are interconnected, with expectations for a lower impact in the second half [94][96] Question: Impact of the new route to market in Brazil - Management confirmed that the new sales organization is in place and expects positive results in Q3 [106][108]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Company sales declined 14% year-over-year, with pricing down 9% and volume down 1% [17][18] - First quarter EBITDA declined 25% due to lower pricing and FX headwinds [21] - Free cash flow in the first quarter was negative $596 million, significantly lower than the prior year [33] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Plant Health business outperformed the portfolio with sales up 1% year-over-year, driven by biologicals [18] - North America experienced a sales decline of 28%, primarily due to lower volume from cautious purchases [19] - Latin America grew 17% excluding FX headwinds, with increased direct sales to cotton growers in Brazil [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - A strong U.S. Dollar led to an FX headwind of 4% [18] - Asia reported a sales decline of 21% excluding currency impacts, driven by intentional prudent selling [20] - EMEA reported 7% lower sales excluding currency impact due to lower volumes [20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on decreasing product in the channel to align with customer inventory levels and implementing a post-patent strategy for Renexapia [7][8] - A new route to market in Brazil is being established to sell directly to large corn and soybean growers, expected to provide significant growth opportunities [12] - The growth portfolio is positioned to deliver strong growth with new active ingredients expected to perform well in 2025 [13][14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving financial objectives for 2025, with expectations for significant momentum in the second half of the year [36] - The company anticipates revenue growth of 7% in the second half, driven by new products and the new route to market in Brazil [28] - Management noted that the impact of recently announced tariffs is manageable and will not significantly hinder reaching 2025 goals [27] Other Important Information - The effective tax rate on adjusted earnings was 14% in the first quarter, in line with expectations for the full year [31] - Gross debt increased to approximately $4 billion due to seasonal working capital build [32] - The company expects free cash flow of $200 million to $400 million for 2025, a decrease from the prior year [33] Q&A Session Summary Question: Price trends in the crop protection market outside of diamides - Management indicated that pricing comparisons will ease in the second half of the year, with expectations for more stability [40][42] Question: Guidance on strong growth in the second half of the year - Management expressed high confidence in revenue growth driven by new products and a healthy channel situation starting in Q3 [46][48] Question: Actions to offset tariff impacts - Management clarified that cost-saving actions were planned regardless of tariffs and are expected to be at the higher end of projections [53][56] Question: Reducing channel inventories - Management explained that reducing channel inventories involved shifting focus to end users without significant rebates or discounts [62] Question: Updates on the DaiMod strategy - Management confirmed ongoing cost reductions and confidence in growth run rates despite the upcoming patent expirations [66] Question: Alternatives for sourcing raw materials impacted by tariffs - Management highlighted flexibility in the supply chain with multiple sources for critical raw materials to limit tariff impacts [71][74] Question: Customer order patterns - Management noted that customer orders are picking up speed in Q2, with a positive dynamic observed in Europe [82] Question: Differences between selling directly to farmers and through the channel - Management indicated that the EBIT margin is similar for both sales methods, with cash conversion linked more to regional operations [86][88] Question: Second half EBITDA bridge - Management explained that the pricing and FX headwinds are interconnected, with expectations for a lower impact in the second half [94]