Core Viewpoint - The postal and currency market is currently in a state of stagnation, but there are predictions of a significant turnaround by 2025 due to changes in international dynamics and domestic consumption upgrades [1][9]. Market Status - The postal and currency market has been experiencing a prolonged downturn, which has led to a reduction in the issuance of commemorative coins and stamps, with commemorative coins decreasing from 100 million to 50 million and stamps from 8 million sets to 6 million sets [3][5]. - Despite the decline in prices of older stamps and coins, this low period has provided an opportunity for market adjustment and rationality, indicating potential for future price rebounds [5][10]. Consumption Stimulus - Historical trends show that the postal and currency market's performance is closely linked to domestic consumption policies, with past economic developments and consumption upgrades leading to price surges, particularly in stamps [6][7]. - The government’s stimulus measures during the 2008-2010 financial crisis led to a rapid recovery in the market, exemplified by the price of the 1980 monkey stamp soaring from 2,000 yuan to over 10,000 yuan [8][9]. Investor Confidence - Although there are positive expectations regarding reduced issuance, investor confidence remains fragile due to prolonged market stagnation and low trading activity [10][11]. - Recent price increases in some postal items have not generated sufficient momentum to revitalize the overall market [12]. Future Market Direction - The future of the postal and currency market hinges on the effectiveness of policy implementation and the confidence of market participants [14]. - If the postal authorities can effectively manage price control, inventory clearance, and market transparency, a significant rebound could occur, potentially leading to record-high market conditions [14]. - Conversely, failure to address existing issues may result in continued market difficulties and potential collapse [15][16].

Core Viewpoint - The collapse of the 1980 monkey stamp price reflects a broader crisis in the Chinese postal and currency card market, leading to a significant loss of investor confidence [1][3][11]. Market Dynamics - The price of the monkey stamp has plummeted from 12,000 yuan per piece to around 5,000 yuan, representing a decline of over 50% [2]. - The decline in monkey stamp prices is indicative of a larger trend affecting the entire postal and currency card market, highlighting deep-rooted challenges [3][14]. Reasons for Price Collapse - Supply and demand imbalance is a primary factor, with a significant influx of previously accumulated monkey stamps flooding the market, diminishing their scarcity [5][6]. - A sharp decrease in demand for high-end gifts, driven by anti-corruption measures and consumer downgrading, has led to a substantial drop in interest for monkey stamps [8]. - The younger generation shows a declining interest in traditional paper stamps, favoring digital collectibles or trendy toys instead [9]. - The bursting of an over-inflated speculative bubble has resulted in prices returning to more rational levels, as the inflated prices lacked real-world support [10]. Market Challenges - The collapse of monkey stamp prices has triggered a wave of selling among investors, putting pressure on other traditional varieties like JT old stamps and zodiac series, leading to a near-total liquidity drain in the market [12]. - The overall decline of the postal and currency card market is evident, with capital withdrawal, shrinking trading volumes, and an aging participant demographic [14][15]. Future Opportunities and Challenges - Despite the current market downturn, there remains potential for a breakthrough, with policy adjustments and supply optimization being crucial, such as reducing new stamp issuance and clearing excess inventory [17]. - The introduction of digitalization and blockchain technology for authentication could pave the way for a dual-track collection model combining physical and digital assets [18]. - Revitalizing stamp culture through cross-industry collaborations and design competitions may attract younger collectors back to the hobby [19]. - Transforming the investment attributes by introducing financial instruments like stamp funds and index products could enhance market liquidity, regulate trading, and rebuild investor confidence [21].