Core Viewpoint - The postal and currency market is currently in a state of stagnation, but there are predictions of a significant turnaround by 2025 due to changes in international dynamics and domestic consumption upgrades [1][9]. Market Status - The postal and currency market has been experiencing a prolonged downturn, which has led to a reduction in the issuance of commemorative coins and stamps, with commemorative coins decreasing from 100 million to 50 million and stamps from 8 million sets to 6 million sets [3][5]. - Despite the decline in prices of older stamps and coins, this low period has provided an opportunity for market adjustment and rationality, indicating potential for future price rebounds [5][10]. Consumption Stimulus - Historical trends show that the postal and currency market's performance is closely linked to domestic consumption policies, with past economic developments and consumption upgrades leading to price surges, particularly in stamps [6][7]. - The government’s stimulus measures during the 2008-2010 financial crisis led to a rapid recovery in the market, exemplified by the price of the 1980 monkey stamp soaring from 2,000 yuan to over 10,000 yuan [8][9]. Investor Confidence - Although there are positive expectations regarding reduced issuance, investor confidence remains fragile due to prolonged market stagnation and low trading activity [10][11]. - Recent price increases in some postal items have not generated sufficient momentum to revitalize the overall market [12]. Future Market Direction - The future of the postal and currency market hinges on the effectiveness of policy implementation and the confidence of market participants [14]. - If the postal authorities can effectively manage price control, inventory clearance, and market transparency, a significant rebound could occur, potentially leading to record-high market conditions [14]. - Conversely, failure to address existing issues may result in continued market difficulties and potential collapse [15][16].

Core Viewpoint - The current postal and currency market is experiencing a significant decline, with prices of many new stamps and commemorative coins falling below face value, indicating a deeper issue beyond just price drops [1][5][11]. Market Condition - The once-thriving postal currency market has lost its luster, with phenomena like "stamps skyrocketing overnight" becoming a thing of the past [1]. - New snake banknotes have seen a price drop from 45 yuan to 25 yuan, and other commemorative coins are also facing price declines [1]. Market Speculation - The market previously fell into a cycle of excessive speculation, leading to artificially inflated prices that were not based on cultural or collectible value, resembling a "hot potato" game [2][3]. Investor Sentiment - Many investors who appeared to profit ultimately faced significant losses when the bubble burst, leading to a collapse in market confidence and a sharp decrease in demand [5]. - The postal currency market has not yet recovered from this phase of pain [5]. Electronic Trading Issues - Postal currency electronic trading platforms, intended to enhance market liquidity, have become areas of regulatory failure, with issues like price manipulation and false transactions being common [6]. - Increased regulation has led to the closure or restriction of many platforms, resulting in a drastic drop in market activity and investor confidence [7]. Competitive Landscape - The postal currency market is facing intense competition from diverse investment channels, such as the stock market and real estate, which attract investors due to their transparency and professional management [8]. - Investors are increasingly favoring lower-risk, well-regulated markets, leading to a significant decline in the "heat" of the postal currency market [9]. Cultural Consumption Shift - The younger generation's cultural consumption preferences have shifted dramatically, favoring instant and digital entertainment over traditional postal currency collecting [10]. - This change has contributed to a shrinking audience for the postal currency market, making it difficult for the market to recover [11]. Need for Innovation - The postal currency market's struggles stem from a lack of innovation and an inability to adapt to modern market demands, contrasting sharply with the innovative trends seen in other collectible markets [12]. - A thorough reform and innovation are necessary for the postal currency market to regain vitality; otherwise, it risks becoming a relic of the past [13][14].

Core Viewpoint - The future outlook of the philatelic and numismatic market is clouded by the ongoing trade war, leading to increased caution among investors and a tendency to adopt a "wait-and-see" approach. Group 1: Impact of Trade War - The trade war has created significant tension in capital flow, resulting in a subdued performance of the philatelic market amidst stock market volatility and international economic uncertainty [1][4]. - The absence of a gift-giving cycle means the market must rely solely on long-term demand for collection and investment [3]. - The scarcity of funds has left the market lifeless, with a clear divide emerging between high-quality collectibles and those facing greater downward pressure [4]. Group 2: Market Pricing Dynamics - In the philatelic market, prices are influenced by three main factors: usage price, investment price, and collectible price [5]. - Usage prices remain relatively stable due to their face value, while investment prices are significantly affected by the economic environment and consumer confidence [6][7]. - The ongoing trade war has led to a decrease in household income, which in turn suppresses investment demand and diminishes the investment value of certain collectibles [8]. Group 3: Investor Strategies - Despite the uncertainties in the current market, opportunities still exist, emphasizing the need for investors to differentiate between collecting and investing [11][12]. - Collectors should focus on selecting varieties with long-term appreciation potential, while investors may prioritize short-term gains and closely monitor market trends [13][14]. - The strategies for collectors and investors differ significantly, with collecting being a long-term endeavor and investing being more about seizing trends [15]. Group 4: Conclusion - The trade war's impact on the philatelic market is profound, leading to evolving investor sentiments. Maintaining a calm and rational approach is essential for navigating this uncertain environment [16].

Core Viewpoint - The postal and currency market, once thriving, is now in decline, with prices of stamps and commemorative coins frequently falling below their face value, indicating a significant loss of market vitality [1] Market Bubble - The postal and currency market experienced rapid expansion due to excessive speculation, with some individuals exploiting public psychology to inflate the prices of non-scarce stamps to exorbitant levels [4] - High-priced stamps and commemorative coins became attractive to short-term profit-seeking investors [5] - The bursting of this bubble led to a collapse in market confidence, causing many investors to exit the market, resulting in a sharp decline in demand and prices [6] Electronic Trading Issues - The introduction of electronic trading platforms aimed to enhance transaction efficiency but became a breeding ground for irregular practices, including price manipulation and false trading [7] - Regulatory efforts to clean up the market, while beneficial in the long run, have significantly reduced market activity and led to a sharp decline in capital inflow [8] - These irregularities have not only disrupted market order but also severely undermined investor confidence, exacerbating the market's decline [9] Competition from Emerging Investment Channels - The rise of stock markets, mutual funds, and real estate as preferred investment channels has marginalized the postal and currency market [10] - The stock market, despite its risks, offers a more transparent mechanism, while mutual funds attract many retail investors due to professional management [10] - The lack of regulatory oversight in the postal and currency market has exposed numerous issues, prompting investors to shift their funds to more mature and regulated markets [10] Shift in Consumer Preferences - A cultural shift, particularly among younger consumers favoring digital cultural products, has negatively impacted the postal and currency market [11] - Compared to digital music and video platforms, the traditional cultural value of the postal and currency market holds less appeal for the younger generation [12] - The preference for immediate and easily consumable cultural products has further narrowed the market's audience, leading to a continuous decline in the postal and currency market [12] Conclusion on Market Challenges - The decline of the postal and currency market is not an isolated incident but a result of multiple factors, including the aftermath of the bubble burst, excessive speculation, electronic trading irregularities, and competition from emerging investment channels [13] - For the postal and currency market to regain its former glory, it must undergo comprehensive reforms and innovations, focusing on increasing transparency, enhancing market regulation, and innovating products and trading models [13]