在央行流动性支持、消费刺激政策加码及中报业绩披露等多重利好因素共同作用下，中国资本市场整体向好。 汽车业上市公司更是迎来普涨行情，总市值大幅攀升。 01 随着央行持续开展大额逆回购和MLF操作，银行体系流动性充裕，对股市构成利好。 其中，8月15日央行开展5000亿元6个月期买断式逆回购操作。8月25日又开展6000亿元1年期MLF操作，净投放3000亿元。 资金积极入场，汽车业上市公司延续普涨行情。 8月25日，东风汽车集团（00489.HK）暴涨55.28%，股价一举突破9港元，最高一度突破10港元；蔚来港股大涨超15%；广汽集团涨幅超8%…… 虽然汽车市场很骨感，但资本市场很丰满。 不仅如此，有分析指出，当前可能以存量散户加杠杆入市为主，伴随市场赚钱效应提升，居民部分资金可能正从银行存款、理财等流向股市。 此外，消费品"以旧换新"政策加码，后续政策可能在上调资金支持规模、扩大品类范围等方面发力，以直达消费者，有效扩大内需、提振消费。 再加上中期业绩密集披露，亦成为影响个股涨跌的重要因素。 综合上述因素，中国三大股指继续上涨。 02 聚焦到汽车行业，《汽车K线》统计102只中国汽车股中，超7成半个股实现上 ...

首席点评：促消费进行时 上海出台楼市新政"组合拳"：符合条件的家庭外环外购房不限套数，成年单 身按照居民家庭执行住房限购政策；绿色建筑公积金贷款额度上浮 15%，公积 金落实"又提又贷"政策；房贷利率层面则不再区分首套和二套房；房产税征 收层面也迎来微调，本地和外地户籍政策口径更为一致。 重点品种：股指、原油、铜 股指：美国三大指数下跌，上一交易日股指继续大幅上涨，通信和有色板块领涨， 市场成交额 3.18 万亿元。资金方面，8 月 22 日融资余额增加 81.74 亿元至 21401.26 亿元。2025 年我们认为国内流动性延续宽松，同时处于政策窗口期， 下半年为提振实体经济可能会出台更多的增量政策，同时外部风险逐步缓和，中 美关税暂停继续延长 90 天，美联储 9 月降息概率增加进一步提升人民币资产吸 引力。当前市场处于"政策底+资金底+估值底"共振期，行情延续概率较高，但 需适应板块轮动加速与结构分化。科技成长成分居多的中证 500 和中证 1000 指 数更偏进攻，波动较大，但可能可以带来更高的回报，而红利蓝筹成分居多的上 证 50 和沪深 300 则更偏防御，波动较小，但是价格弹性可能相对较弱。 ...

Group 1 - The State Council's recent meetings signal increased policy support for the recycling of consumer goods, potentially leading to expanded funding and product categories [1] - The domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose, with more incremental policies likely to be introduced in the second half of 2025 to boost the real economy [2][10] - The market is currently in a phase of "policy bottom + liquidity bottom + valuation bottom," suggesting a high probability of continued market performance, albeit with accelerated sector rotation and structural differentiation [2][10] Group 2 - Gold and silver prices have rebounded significantly, driven by dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, which have increased expectations for a rate cut in September [3][18] - The U.S. inflation data for July showed a rebound, and positive signals from U.S.-Russia negotiations have eased geopolitical risks, supporting gold and silver prices [3][18] - The supply of the stablecoin USDe has surged to a historical high of 12.03 billion, driven by the enactment of the U.S. stablecoin legislation [7] Group 3 - The recent hurricane season has been relatively calm, with Hurricane Erin moving away from key oil and gas infrastructure, which may stabilize oil prices [4][12] - The U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 235,000, exceeding market expectations, indicating potential economic challenges ahead [4][13] - The domestic methanol inventory has reached a historical high of 1.2485 million tons, with a significant increase in imports expected in the coming weeks [14]

消费者服务行业 标配（维持） 消费者服务行业双周报（2025/8/8-2025/8/21） 中央财政对个人消费贷款进行贴息，基本面趋稳 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 行 业 周 报 消费者服务（中信）指数走势 资料来源：iFind，东莞证券研究所 相关报告 证 券 研 究 报 2025 年 8 月 22 日 分析师：邓升亮 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523050001 电话：0769-22119410 邮箱： dengshengliang@dgzq.com.cn 行 业 研 究 告 ◼ 行情回顾：2025年8月8日-2025年8月21日，中信消费者服务行业指数整 体回升3.76%，跑输同期沪深300指数约0.45个百分点。指数上涨主要受 暑期旺季出游数据和市场风险偏好回温带动。细分板块均上涨，酒店板 块领涨，华住二季度业绩报告显示酒店近期经营指标企稳，或带动估值 回升。行业取得正收益的上市公司有43家，涨幅前五分别是中国高科、 ST东时、西安饮食、科德教育、君亭酒店，取得负 ...

Group 1 - The company reported a strong performance in Q2, with a revenue of 3.58 billion yuan and a net profit of 750 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth in transaction volume of 10.9% to 54 billion yuan and an 18.1% increase in loan balance to 77.5 billion yuan [4] - Domestic transaction volume reached 50.8 billion yuan in Q2, with a year-on-year growth of 9.5%, while the loan balance was 75.4 billion yuan, up 17.4% [1][4] - The company has repurchased shares worth 63.8 million dollars in the first half of the year, supporting its strategic initiatives [1] Group 2 - The company invested nearly 130 million yuan in R&D in Q2, marking an 8.2% increase year-on-year, focusing on enhancing its fraud detection systems [2] - The upgraded defense system against complex AI fraud achieved a detection accuracy of 98.8%, while the self-developed visual AI can identify forged images with a recognition rate of 95% [2] - The company has implemented multiple verification methods, including dynamic facial recognition and real-time video authentication, to enhance security measures [2] Group 3 - The international business transaction volume exceeded 3.2 billion yuan in Q2, showing a year-on-year growth of 39%, with revenue nearing 800 million yuan, up 41.5% [1] - As of the end of Q2, the company has served a total of 8.7 million overseas users, indicating a diversified business expansion [1]

Group 1 - The central government's subsidy for personal consumption loans should not be viewed merely as a consumption stimulus policy, as it significantly impacts monetary, fiscal, and financial aspects [1] - The key focus is not on the potential increase in consumption brought by this policy, but rather on the signal it conveys [1] - The policy is expected to have long-term effects on the stock market [1]

中原期货研究咨询部 晨会纪要 2025 第（148）期 发布日期：2025-08-14 | 中原期货研究咨询部 | 0371-58620081 | | --- | --- | | 0371-58620083 | | | 公司官方微信 | | 0371-58620081 0371-58620083 公司官方微信 1 中原期货研究咨询部 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2025/8/14 | 2025/8/13 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 1,236.50 | 1,245.00 | -8.50 | -0:683 | | | 焦炭 | 1,735.00 | 1,737.00 | -2.0 | -0:115 | | | 天然橡胶 | 15,875.00 | 15,800.00 | 75.0 | 0.475 | | | 20号胶 | 12,695.00 | 12,610.00 | 85.0 | 0.674 | | | 塑料 | 7,303.00 | 7,313.00 | -10. ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent implementation of personal consumption loan interest subsidy policies is expected to boost consumer stocks, leading to a potential rebound in the sector as the government emphasizes the importance of stimulating consumption [2][4]. Policy Impact on Consumption - The personal consumption loan policy is designed to support large and small consumer expenditures, with a maximum subsidy of 500 yuan for large purchases and a broad coverage for smaller purchases, which includes daily necessities [5]. - The service industry loan subsidy policy aims to enhance financing support across eight consumption areas, with individual loan amounts reaching up to 1 million yuan, thereby stimulating both consumer demand and service supply [6]. Market Outlook - Investment institutions are optimistic about the recovery of consumer stocks, anticipating a structural market change as policies create a positive cycle for domestic demand [6][10]. - The focus is on both traditional and emerging consumption sectors, with particular attention to industries such as automotive, home improvement, cultural tourism, and electronics, which are expected to benefit significantly from the new policies [9]. Investment Strategies - Companies are advised to explore opportunities in both traditional and new consumption fields, including sectors like cultural creativity, beauty, gaming, and smart home technologies, which are gaining competitive advantages globally [9][10]. - The investment strategy includes identifying high-potential consumer leaders and sectors that align with current market trends, such as quality retail and pet economy [10].

Group 1 - Retail stocks opened strong on August 13, with companies like HeBai Group, WuShang Group, GuoGuang Chain, and YouHao Group hitting the daily limit up, indicating positive market sentiment [1] - The Ministry of Finance, People's Bank of China, and financial regulatory authorities issued a personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy, effective from September 1, 2025, to August 31, 2026, aimed at stimulating consumer spending [1] - The subsidy covers personal consumption loans used for various sectors, including household vehicles, education, cultural tourism, and health care, with a cap of 50,000 yuan for interest subsidies on single transactions [1] Group 2 - The introduction of the subsidy policy is expected to lower credit costs for residents, stimulate consumer demand, and drive the recovery of the consumption market, benefiting the retail sector significantly [2] - Increased disposable income for consumers is anticipated to directly boost purchasing demand, while improved market confidence will enhance investor expectations for retail companies' future performance [2] - The policy is seen as a strong support for the retail industry, potentially increasing sales and profits for retail enterprises, optimizing supply chains, and expanding market channels, which will positively impact long-term development [2]

Core Viewpoint - The beer stocks have experienced a significant decline, with Budweiser APAC down 5.47%, Qingdao Beer down 5.06%, and China Resources Beer down 4.04% as of the report time. The decline is attributed to a decrease in beer production and external consumption pressures, including a recent ban on alcohol sales [1]. Industry Summary - As of June 2025, the beer production volume of large-scale enterprises in China reached 4.12 million kiloliters, showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.2%. For the first half of the year, the cumulative beer production was 19.04 million kiloliters, down 0.3% year-on-year [1]. - The market sentiment has been affected by the alcohol ban, but there are signs of recovery as the beer consumption season approaches, coupled with positive consumer policy adjustments in China, which may lead to marginal improvements in beer demand [1]. Policy Impact - The Central Political Bureau held a meeting on July 30, emphasizing the expansion of domestic demand with a focus on improving livelihoods. This consumption stimulus policy is expected to alleviate the pressure on beer sales and sales expectations that have been impacted by external consumption environments and the alcohol ban [1].