Core Viewpoint - The investment accounts managed by the company have shown a mixed performance this year, with a total profit of 1.9 million yuan, down from a peak of 2.3 million yuan earlier in the year, indicating a drawdown of 400,000 yuan [2][3]. Group 1: Account Performance - The total assets in the on-market ETF account amount to 2.6 million yuan, while the off-market fund account holds 5.4 million yuan, and the advisory portfolio has 1.2 million yuan [7]. - The on-market ETF account has a year-to-date profit of 460,000 yuan, with a current yield of 40.19% [5][6]. - The off-market fund account has a year-to-date profit of 1.338 million yuan, with a yield of 34.21% [15][16]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The company has shifted its strategy by reducing its position in a value ETF by 100,000 yuan and reallocating that amount to the Hang Seng Consumer ETF, which has seen a decrease in floating profit from 11% to 8% [4]. - The rationale for this shift includes the belief that consumer valuations are at historical lows and that there will likely be consumption stimulus policies next year, which could improve industry sentiment [5]. - The core holdings in the on-market ETF account focus on Hong Kong stocks, with significant investments in sectors such as innovative pharmaceuticals, technology, and consumer goods [8][9]. Group 3: Market Trends - The recent downturn in the Hong Kong stock market has not changed the company's long-term investment logic, which emphasizes the valuation advantages of Hong Kong stocks compared to A-shares [10]. - The company has noted that the recent performance of aerospace and satellite ETFs has been strong, contributing significantly to this week's profits [11]. - The company adheres to a philosophy of avoiding high-risk investments and focusing on undervalued sectors for long-term gains [12]. Group 4: Precious Metals Market - The precious metals market has experienced significant price increases, with platinum prices rising over 172% year-to-date, driven by demand from the aerospace sector [24]. - The company had previously identified platinum as a valuable investment but missed the opportunity to invest heavily at lower prices [21][24]. - The company advises against chasing prices in the current market, emphasizing the importance of strategic investment rather than following trends [25].

中央经济工作会议强调，2026年我国将坚持稳中求进工作总基调，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，推 动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长，实现"十五五"良好开局。 消费活力如何进一步激发？货币政策有何发力空间？人民币汇率怎么走？这些都是理解"十五五"经济脉络的关键切口，也是监管的必答题。围 绕上述问题，北京商报记者专访了广开首席产业研究院首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛理事长连平。 2025年，站在"十四五"收官与"十五五"规划谋篇的历史衔接点上，宏观经济环境交织着机遇与挑战。 全球经济在波动中前行，中国金融市场在多重政策合力下展现出新的韧性与活力。人民银行延续流动性宽松的基调，通过降准、降息等工具为 经济修复提供支持，货币政策与财政政策协调配合，金融"五篇大文章"系统推进，一系列举措旨在打通经济循环、激发内需潜力、优化金融供 给。 2026年我国将扩大优质消费品和服务供给，培育壮大新的消费增长点，积极打造消费新场景，把扩大消费与因地制宜发展新质生产力结合起 来。一是深入实施提振消费专项行动，制定实施城乡居民增收计划。优化"两新"政策实施，"国补"额度有望在2025年基础上适度 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a "more declines than gains, structural differentiation" characteristic, with the technology growth sector being the core due to strong performance certainty and high industry prosperity [5]. Market Performance - 1,305 companies saw an increase in their stock prices, with a rise and fall ratio of 54:12, indicating a selective market performance [5]. - The total trading volume in both markets was 9.2 trillion yuan, a decrease of 6.57%, reflecting a cautious market sentiment and a concentration of funds in a few sectors [6]. Sector Analysis - The computing hardware sector had the highest trading volume, while the retail sector benefited from consumption stimulus policies, leading to a significant increase in trading volume [6]. - Traditional cyclical sectors such as non-ferrous metals, real estate, coal, and brokerage firms collectively adjusted due to a lack of catalysts and capital outflows [5]. Fund Flow and Sentiment - There was a net outflow of 617.91 billion yuan from main funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow, indicating a defensive repositioning by institutions away from the electronic and computing sectors towards banks and public utilities [7]. - Retail investors displayed cautious optimism, focusing on sectors driven by policy catalysts such as commercial aerospace and consumer recovery [7]. Investor Sentiment - The sentiment among retail investors was recorded at 75.85%, indicating a relatively positive outlook despite the cautious market environment [8].

Global Macro - The US economy faces increasing uncertainty, with a marginal weakening observed, while global manufacturing PMI remains slightly above the expansion threshold at 50.8%[6] - The impact of the US-China tariff war has been less severe than initially expected, with short-term risks appearing limited[11] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle is expected to continue despite government shutdown-induced data gaps[11] Domestic Macro - China's economy continues to slow, with October exports down 1.1% year-on-year and industrial production growth declining to 4.9%[12][15] - Consumer spending remains weak, with retail sales growth at 2.9% in October, reflecting a lack of internal demand[15][16] - Fixed asset investment has dropped for the fourth consecutive month, with a year-on-year decline of 11.2% in October, particularly in real estate, which fell by 23.1%[19][21] Policy Outlook - Global uncertainty has decreased, but domestic stimulus measures remain weak, focusing on the implementation of previously announced policies rather than new aggressive stimulus[2][27] - The Chinese government is expected to maintain a cautious approach to monetary policy, with potential for small interest rate cuts if the US continues to lower rates[2][29] Asset Performance - Technology stocks have experienced significant volatility, but the overall asset market remains upward trending, influenced by recent US-China trade agreements and the longest government shutdown in US history[34][36] - Despite recent adjustments, the long-term outlook for technology stocks remains positive due to favorable liquidity conditions and superior fundamentals compared to traditional sectors[36]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese stock market has a clear medium to long-term upward logic, supported by economic resilience, institutional reforms, and favorable liquidity conditions from global monetary policies [17][19][21]. Group 1: Economic and Policy Insights - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of modern industrial systems, with a focus on emerging industries like renewable energy and advanced manufacturing, and future industries such as quantum technology and bio-manufacturing [14]. - The plan aims to enhance total factor productivity through AI and improve consumer spending through coordinated policies [15]. - High-quality development is prioritized, focusing on green economy, technological independence, and digital economy [16]. Group 2: Stock Market Outlook - The Chinese stock market is expected to benefit from a robust economic recovery and institutional reforms that enhance asset quality and technology content [18][20]. - The A-share market shows improving fundamentals and liquidity, making it attractive for investment, especially with the recent "15th Five-Year Plan" boosting market confidence [21]. - The Hong Kong stock market is also seen as appealing due to the influx of quality mainland companies and the narrowing of the AH premium [22]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Opportunities - Key sectors to watch include technology, renewable energy, and digital economy in the A-share market, while in Hong Kong, technology and green industries are highlighted [23][24]. - The importance of self-sufficiency in technology is underscored, particularly in areas like domestic computing and server sectors [22]. Group 4: Global Market Trends - The U.S. stock market is driven by strong earnings from tech giants, interest rate cuts, and easing trade tensions, with expectations for continued upward movement [32]. - Japan's stock market is supported by valuation advantages, a positive inflation cycle, and domestic capital inflows, particularly from tax-advantaged savings accounts [34].

Core Insights - The impact of real estate adjustments on consumer spending in China is significant, especially compared to Japan's real estate bubble period from 1986 to 1990, due to deeper household involvement and rapid mortgage growth during China's real estate boom from 2004 to 2021 [2][4][5] - China is implementing a combination of short-term counter-cyclical subsidies and long-term consumption potential cultivation policies to stimulate consumer spending [2][9] - The growth potential for consumption in lower-tier cities and rural areas is substantial, driven by high household savings rates and lower debt pressures compared to first-tier cities [2][17][25] Real Estate Adjustment and Consumer Impact - The rapid decline in housing prices has led to increased debt pressure on Chinese households, with personal housing loan balances growing significantly from 2004 to 2021 [4][5] - The debt accumulation rate for personal housing loans in China has exceeded 20% CAGR from 2005 to 2020, indicating a sharp rise in housing loan pressure [5] - The reliance on pre-sale housing sales models in China amplifies risks, as families begin repaying loans before experiencing the property, leading to potential financial distress if projects fail [5][8] Policy Responses and Consumption Stimulus - The Chinese government has set a policy direction to stimulate consumption, including the introduction of trade-in and subsidy programs, as well as consumption vouchers [9][10] - Local governments are implementing specific measures to ensure the effectiveness of consumption stimulus policies, such as providing subsidies for vehicle upgrades and issuing consumption vouchers [9][10] - A collaborative effort among nine departments aims to expand service consumption, addressing the slowdown in service spending growth [10] Comparison with Japan's Experience - Japan's experience during the 1990s shows that after a decline in housing prices, income expectations significantly affect household consumption, highlighting the need for China to avoid similar pitfalls [7][8] - The long-term economic downturn in Japan was exacerbated by a decline in labor market conditions and rising unemployment, which led to a contraction in household consumption [7][8] Consumption Growth Potential in China - The narrowing income gap between urban and rural residents has led to higher consumption growth rates in rural areas, which are less affected by real estate price adjustments [17][25] - Consumption growth in lower-tier cities is outpacing that in major cities, indicating a shift in consumer spending patterns [20][25] - The focus on regional economic balance and infrastructure investment is expected to further enhance consumption potential in lower-tier cities [25] Young Generation and Consumption Trends - The younger generation in China, particularly the "Z generation," is characterized by a strong willingness to spend, supported by family wealth transfer and a lack of inheritance tax [26][27] - The rise of digital economy and new job types has created diverse income streams for young consumers, fostering a cycle of increased spending and consumption upgrades [27][29] - The cultural emphasis on family support for the younger generation contrasts sharply with Western norms, providing a solid foundation for consumer spending [26][27]

Core Insights - The meeting led by Mayor Xu Shuhai emphasizes the importance of promoting consumption to support high-quality economic and social development in the city [1] - The central government has introduced multiple consumption stimulus policies to expand domestic demand and promote consumption as a key measure for economic growth [1] - The city has implemented special actions to boost consumption, resulting in a retail sales growth rate that remains among the top in the province [1] Group 1 - The focus is on expanding total consumption, developing the industrial economy, and attracting more external population for employment to cultivate new consumer groups [2] - The strategy includes leveraging existing resources to increase new consumption, optimizing business layouts, and encouraging integrated business models to enhance quality service supply [2] - The city aims to utilize existing policies effectively while preparing for long-term growth, particularly through programs like trade-in incentives to unlock potential in large-scale consumption [2] Group 2 - Emphasis on focusing on key sectors and tasks, enhancing collaboration, and addressing weaknesses to improve the consumption environment [2] - The importance of market supervision to maintain a favorable consumption environment is highlighted, contributing to sustained consumption growth and supporting high-quality development [2]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the e-commerce and beauty industry, particularly the upcoming Double Eleven shopping festival in 2025, which will last nearly 60 days, with significant sales targets set for various platforms like Taobao, Tmall, and Douyin [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Sales Growth Projections**: - Tmall expects GMV growth of 15%-20%, with beauty products targeting a 20% increase. Douyin aims for an overall growth of approximately 30%, with beauty products projected to grow by 35%-40% [1][3]. - **Advertising Budget Allocation**: - International brands will allocate 70%-75% of their advertising budget to Tmall, while domestic brands will invest 60% in Douyin [1][8][9]. - **Platform Strategies**: - Tmall focuses on core demographics and major brands, shifting its assessment criteria to GMV. Douyin supports emerging brands and domestic products, aiming to attract a broader consumer base [1][6][12]. - **Consumer Behavior**: - Tmall's international brands, such as Lauder and Lancôme, have a market share exceeding 10%, with high repurchase rates expected during the shopping festival [1][7]. - **Promotional Strategies**: - Tmall has eliminated fees and service charges for brands with over 20% growth, while Douyin has waived product card commissions and offers traffic support [1][12][13]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Market Dynamics**: - The current stock market is in a slow bull phase, with consumer sectors gaining attention despite a negative CPI in August. Potential consumer stimulus policies may emerge in the fourth quarter [4][17][18]. - **Brand Performance Expectations**: - Brands like Kose, Proya, Han Shu, and Mao Geping are expected to perform well during the Double Eleven period, with specific growth strategies outlined for each [1][14][20]. - **Impact of External Factors**: - The success of Tmall and Douyin during the festival may be influenced by external factors such as the return of key personnel and successful promotional events like the "Paris Partners" variety show, which has significantly increased brand exposure [22][23]. - **Future Growth Projections**: - Brands like Mao Geping are projected to achieve a compound annual growth rate of 30% from 2023 to 2026, with potential for significant market expansion [26][27]. - **E-commerce Operations**: - The e-commerce operation sector is becoming increasingly active, driven by AI technology that enhances efficiency in customer service and marketing [37]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights and projections regarding the beauty and e-commerce industry as discussed in the conference call, highlighting growth expectations, strategic shifts, and market dynamics.

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market, including the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index, opened lower on September 22, with the Hong Kong Consumer ETF (159735) down 0.11% and a trading volume exceeding 12 million [1] - The Hong Kong Consumer ETF tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Theme Index, which consists of 50 liquid and large-cap consumer-related stocks within the Stock Connect range, reflecting the overall performance of consumer stocks in Hong Kong [1] - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism announced a three-year action plan to boost cultural and tourism consumption, coinciding with the upcoming 8-day holiday period that includes the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, indicating a potential surge in tourism [1] Group 2 - Century Securities highlighted that the 8-day holiday period is expected to drive growth in the "Golden Week" tourism market, with a recommendation to focus on undervalued sectors such as hotels, dining, and tourism [2] - Dongxing Securities noted that consumption during the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays is likely to be boosted by new consumption policies, with cities starting to distribute consumption vouchers, which could enhance domestic consumption [2] - The overall demand recovery in the consumer sector, particularly in the dining industry, is anticipated to grow alongside tourism and sports economies in the second half of the year [2]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market showed a low opening followed by a rise, with the Hong Kong Consumer ETF (159735) experiencing a slight decline of 0.46% as of the report, with a trading volume exceeding 24 million [1] - The latest circulating scale of the Hong Kong Consumer ETF (159735) reached 853 million yuan, marking a historical high and leading among similar products, with a circulating share of 982 million [1] - The Hong Kong Consumer ETF (159735) tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Theme Index, which consists of 50 large-cap, liquid consumer-related stocks within the Stock Connect range, reflecting the overall performance of consumer stocks [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Finance reported that approximately 420 billion yuan has been allocated to stimulate consumption, resulting in sales exceeding 2.9 trillion yuan by the end of August [2] - Rural retail sales of consumer goods have increased by 24% since the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan, supported by various fiscal policies aimed at enhancing consumption [2] - Direct subsidies for childcare and elderly services, as well as interest subsidies for personal consumption loans, have been introduced to direct resources towards the consumption sector [2] Group 3 - Dongxing Securities anticipates a boost in consumption during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, with Zhejiang's consumption policy breakthroughs likely to be emulated by other regions [3] - The issuance of consumption vouchers by various cities is expected to invigorate domestic consumption, particularly in the second half of the year [3] - The overall recovery of the consumption sector, especially in the catering industry, is projected to grow alongside tourism and sports economies [3]