市领导张克、周凯、黄春年、武鸣、尹卫民，市政府秘书长戴卫东参加会议。（记者 陈志奎） 在听取有关部门和地区工作情况汇报后，徐曙海指出，促消费在国民经济发展中具有十分重要的意 义。习近平总书记明确指出"人民对美好生活的向往，就是我们的奋斗目标"，更好满足老百姓消费需求 也是题中之义。面对严峻的宏观形势，党中央、国务院把扩大内需、促进消费作为经济增长实现破局， 增量继续走在世界前列的重要措施，相继出台了多项消费刺激政策。今年以来，全市深入实施提振消费 专项行动，采取有效措施推动消费市场稳中向好，社会消费品零售总额增幅保持全省前列，相关工作也 得到了方方面面"点赞"。随着新的消费群体不断涌现，各地区各部门要积极顺应新时代新变化，提升经 营性项目服务质量，有效满足人民群众多元化、高品质的消费需求，推动全市促消费工作取得更好成 绩。 10月10日，市长徐曙海主持召开专题会议，认真落实党中央、国务院和省委、省政府部署要求，研 究推进全市促消费工作，进一步提振消费信心、激发消费潜力，为全市经济社会高质量发展提供有力支 撑。 徐曙海强调，要以扩大消费总量为重点，大力发展工业经济，吸纳更多外来人口来镇就业，不断扩 大"新镇江人 ...

Q&A 今年双十一的活动周期和核心销售时间节点有哪些变化？ 今年的双十一活动周期创下历史最长，抖音从 9 月中旬开始，持续约 57 天； 天猫预计从 10 月 9 日正式开始。整个周期分为五个阶段：预热期（9 月下旬至 10 月 19 日），主要进行领券和品牌预热种草；预售阶段（10 月 20 日至 30 日），美妆板块预计完成 45%左右的销售额；首轮爆发期（10 月 31 日至 11 月 10 日），各平台提供全品类优惠券和补贴；核心成交期（11 月 10 日至 11 日），预计占总成交额的 20%~30%；返场阶段可能延续 1~3 天。今年双十 一整体周期长达近 60 天。 今年双十一期间，各大平台对美妆品类的销售目标是什么？ 淘宝天猫平台内部预计 GMV 增长在 15%~20%左右，美妆品类希望达到 20%的增长。抖音全品类目标增长约 30%，美妆品类目标增长 35%~40%。 专家视角解读&双十一行情投资思路梳理 20250923 摘要 2025 年双十一周期长达近 60 天，淘宝天猫平台预计 GMV 增长 15%- 20%，美妆品类目标增长 20%；抖音全品类目标增长约 30%，美妆品 类目标增长 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market, including the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index, opened lower on September 22, with the Hong Kong Consumer ETF (159735) down 0.11% and a trading volume exceeding 12 million [1] - The Hong Kong Consumer ETF tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Theme Index, which consists of 50 liquid and large-cap consumer-related stocks within the Stock Connect range, reflecting the overall performance of consumer stocks in Hong Kong [1] - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism announced a three-year action plan to boost cultural and tourism consumption, coinciding with the upcoming 8-day holiday period that includes the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, indicating a potential surge in tourism [1] Group 2 - Century Securities highlighted that the 8-day holiday period is expected to drive growth in the "Golden Week" tourism market, with a recommendation to focus on undervalued sectors such as hotels, dining, and tourism [2] - Dongxing Securities noted that consumption during the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays is likely to be boosted by new consumption policies, with cities starting to distribute consumption vouchers, which could enhance domestic consumption [2] - The overall demand recovery in the consumer sector, particularly in the dining industry, is anticipated to grow alongside tourism and sports economies in the second half of the year [2]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market showed a low opening followed by a rise, with the Hong Kong Consumer ETF (159735) experiencing a slight decline of 0.46% as of the report, with a trading volume exceeding 24 million [1] - The latest circulating scale of the Hong Kong Consumer ETF (159735) reached 853 million yuan, marking a historical high and leading among similar products, with a circulating share of 982 million [1] - The Hong Kong Consumer ETF (159735) tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Theme Index, which consists of 50 large-cap, liquid consumer-related stocks within the Stock Connect range, reflecting the overall performance of consumer stocks [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Finance reported that approximately 420 billion yuan has been allocated to stimulate consumption, resulting in sales exceeding 2.9 trillion yuan by the end of August [2] - Rural retail sales of consumer goods have increased by 24% since the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan, supported by various fiscal policies aimed at enhancing consumption [2] - Direct subsidies for childcare and elderly services, as well as interest subsidies for personal consumption loans, have been introduced to direct resources towards the consumption sector [2] Group 3 - Dongxing Securities anticipates a boost in consumption during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, with Zhejiang's consumption policy breakthroughs likely to be emulated by other regions [3] - The issuance of consumption vouchers by various cities is expected to invigorate domestic consumption, particularly in the second half of the year [3] - The overall recovery of the consumption sector, especially in the catering industry, is projected to grow alongside tourism and sports economies [3]

Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry in China is experiencing a significant rally in stock prices, driven by liquidity support from the central bank, consumer stimulus policies, and positive mid-year earnings reports [2][3][18]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The central bank has implemented large-scale reverse repos and MLF operations, injecting substantial liquidity into the banking system, which positively impacts the stock market [3]. - On August 15, the central bank conducted a 500 billion yuan reverse repo operation, followed by a 600 billion yuan MLF operation on August 25, resulting in a net injection of 300 billion yuan [3]. - There is a trend of retail investors leveraging their positions in the stock market, with some funds shifting from bank deposits and wealth management products to equities due to improved market sentiment [5]. Group 2: Automotive Sector Performance - Over 70% of the 102 Chinese automotive stocks tracked saw price increases, with an average rise of 4.05%, closely following the Shenzhen Composite Index's 4.57% gain [5]. - The total market capitalization of Chinese automotive stocks increased by over 410 billion yuan, reaching 11.56 trillion yuan [5]. - The passenger vehicle sector outperformed other segments, with a 7.05% increase, driven by stocks like NIO, Xpeng Motors, and Great Wall Motors [7]. Group 3: Notable Stock Performances - NIO's stocks surged by 31.81% in the US and 27.75% in Hong Kong, attributed to the favorable pricing strategy for its new ES8 model [9]. - Cao Cao Mobility's stock rose by 26.1%, influenced by a reduction in driver commission rates and positive market expectations regarding its inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect [9]. - Xpeng Motors reported a nearly 57% reduction in losses and provided optimistic revenue guidance for Q3, leading to stock increases of 20.56% in the US and 18.73% in Hong Kong [11]. Group 4: Financial Results - Fuyao Glass reported a revenue of 21.44 billion yuan for the period, a 16.94% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 4.80 billion yuan, up 37.33% [12]. - Great Wall Motors benefited from the launch of new models and significant overseas expansion, contributing to positive market expectations [13]. - Tuhu's revenue for the first half of the year was 7.88 billion yuan, reflecting a 10.5% year-on-year growth [13]. Group 5: Stock Declines - Despite the overall market rally, 23 stocks experienced declines, primarily in the dealer/retail, smart mobility, and new energy sectors, with declines generally limited to under 10% [14]. - Ganfeng Lithium and Hesai Technology saw the largest declines, with Ganfeng down 9.52% and Hesai down 9.11% [15][17].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic market is in a resonance period of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", and the market trend is likely to continue, but it is necessary to adapt to the accelerating sector rotation and structural differentiation [2][10]. - With the loosening of market liquidity, the price of treasury bond futures has stabilized, but beware of the suppression of the bond market sentiment by the stock - bond seesaw effect [11]. - The overall trend of precious metals may be strong under the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts [3][18]. - The copper price may fluctuate within a range due to the interweaving of multiple factors [3][19]. Summary by Directory 1. Main News Concerns of the Day International News - The Trump administration plans to impose a 50% tariff on Indian products starting from August 27, 2025 [4]. Domestic News - The Hong Kong Treasury Bureau Chief reminded the public to be cautious about stablecoins, which are positioned as payment tools with a lower cost compared to bank payments [6]. - Shanghai introduced a series of real - estate new policies, including relaxed purchase restrictions, increased housing provident fund loan limits, and adjusted mortgage interest rates and property tax policies [1][7]. 2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500, European STOXX 50, London Gold, London Silver, etc. declined, while the FTSE China A50 futures, ICE Brent crude oil, etc. rose on August 25 compared to August 24 [8]. 3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - **Stock Index**: The domestic market has favorable factors such as loose liquidity, policy support, and easing external risks. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300 are more defensive [2][10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The price of treasury bond futures has stabilized with the loosening of market funds, but the strong equity market may suppress the bond market [11]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The sc night - session rose. A Russian refinery was attacked, and OPEC+ may discuss further production increases in September. Pay attention to OPEC's production increase [12]. - **Methanol**: The coastal methanol inventory has increased significantly. The short - term trend is mainly bullish [13]. - **Rubber**: Affected by typhoons and the rainy season, the supply side provides support, while the demand side is weak. The short - term trend is expected to stop falling and rebound [14]. - **Polyolefins**: The futures prices rebounded slightly. The market is mainly driven by supply and demand, and pay attention to the autumn restocking market [15][16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The prices of glass and soda ash futures stopped falling. Pay attention to the autumn consumption to help digest inventory [17]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: The expectation of interest rate cuts in September has increased, and the overall trend of precious metals may be strong [3][18]. - **Copper**: The copper price may fluctuate within a range due to the tight concentrate supply and mixed downstream demand [3][19]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price may fluctuate weakly within a range due to the expected increase in smelting production and mixed downstream demand [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term price is affected by sentiment. If the inventory starts to decline, the lithium price may rise further [21][22]. Black Metals - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore is supported, but the medium - term supply - demand imbalance pressure is large. The later trend is expected to be oscillating and bullish [23]. - **Steel**: The supply - demand contradiction in the steel market is not significant for the time being. The short - term adjustment is expected, and the later trend is expected to be oscillating and bullish [24]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The short - term trend is in a wide - range oscillation due to the game between multiple factors [25]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The short - term adjustment of domestic soybean meal is weak, but it is expected to be relatively strong in the long - term [26]. - **Oils and Fats**: The short - term trend of oils and fats is expected to be oscillating [27][28]. - **Sugar**: The domestic and international sugar markets are expected to maintain an oscillating trend [29]. - **Cotton**: The short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be oscillating and bullish, but the upside space is limited [30]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The freight rate of the European line is in a downward trend, and the short - term is expected to continue the phased decline [31].

Group 1 - The State Council's recent meetings signal increased policy support for the recycling of consumer goods, potentially leading to expanded funding and product categories [1] - The domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose, with more incremental policies likely to be introduced in the second half of 2025 to boost the real economy [2][10] - The market is currently in a phase of "policy bottom + liquidity bottom + valuation bottom," suggesting a high probability of continued market performance, albeit with accelerated sector rotation and structural differentiation [2][10] Group 2 - Gold and silver prices have rebounded significantly, driven by dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, which have increased expectations for a rate cut in September [3][18] - The U.S. inflation data for July showed a rebound, and positive signals from U.S.-Russia negotiations have eased geopolitical risks, supporting gold and silver prices [3][18] - The supply of the stablecoin USDe has surged to a historical high of 12.03 billion, driven by the enactment of the U.S. stablecoin legislation [7] Group 3 - The recent hurricane season has been relatively calm, with Hurricane Erin moving away from key oil and gas infrastructure, which may stabilize oil prices [4][12] - The U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 235,000, exceeding market expectations, indicating potential economic challenges ahead [4][13] - The domestic methanol inventory has reached a historical high of 1.2485 million tons, with a significant increase in imports expected in the coming weeks [14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Perform" investment rating for the consumer services industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within ±10% of the market index over the next six months [28]. Core Views - The consumer services sector has shown an overall recovery, particularly in the hotel and restaurant segments, likely driven by a rebound in market risk appetite and positive performance in the tourism sector [28][29]. - Recent fiscal policies, including interest subsidies for personal consumption loans, are expected to support consumer spending and stabilize the industry's fundamentals in the medium term [21][28]. Summary by Sections Market Review - From August 8 to August 21, 2025, the CITIC consumer services industry index rose by 3.76%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by approximately 0.45 percentage points. The increase was primarily driven by strong summer travel data and a recovery in market risk appetite [7][9]. - The hotel and restaurant sectors led the gains, with the hotel segment rising by 6.74%. The recent performance of Huazhu Group indicated stabilization in operational metrics, which may boost valuations [9][16]. - A total of 43 listed companies in the industry reported positive returns, with the top five performers being China High-Tech, ST Dongshi, Xi'an Catering, Kede Education, and Junting Hotel, showing increases of 17.68%, 15.93%, 15.65%, 13.00%, and 10.47% respectively [13][16]. Industry News - The central government has introduced a subsidy policy for personal consumption loans, which includes a 1% interest subsidy for loans used for various consumer purposes, effective for one year [21]. - The railway system reported over 710 million passengers transported during the summer travel season, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.1% [22]. - Huazhu Group reported a second-quarter revenue of 26.9 billion yuan, a 15% increase year-on-year, with operational metrics showing recovery [23]. Company Announcements - Jiuhua Tourism reported a 22.26% year-on-year increase in total revenue for the first half of 2025, reaching 483 million yuan [24]. - ST Dongshi announced the completion of the repayment of non-operating fund occupation by its controlling shareholder, allowing its stock to resume trading [25]. - Action Education reported a decrease in total revenue by 11.68% year-on-year for the first half of 2025, totaling 344 million yuan [26]. Weekly Perspective - The report suggests a positive outlook for the consumer services sector, driven by improved market sentiment and supportive fiscal policies. Key stocks to watch include China Duty Free, Jinjiang Hotels, Changbai Mountain, Emei Mountain A, Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism, Tianmu Lake, Jiuhua Tourism, and Zhongxin Tourism [28][31].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of expanding consumption as a key measure to strengthen domestic circulation and improve people's livelihoods. Various regions and departments have actively implemented special actions to boost consumption and promote the replacement of old consumer goods, leading to the release of consumption potential and stable economic operation [1] - From January to July, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.8% year-on-year, while service retail sales grew by 5.2%, indicating overall stability in consumption [1] - The Ministry of Finance, in collaboration with multiple departments, has introduced loan interest subsidy policies aimed at service industry operators and personal consumption loans, which are designed to stimulate consumption potential and enhance market vitality [3][5] Group 2 - The two subsidy policies target both the demand and supply sides of consumption, shifting the focus of fiscal and financial policies towards improving people's livelihoods and promoting consumption [5] - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has significantly boosted retail sales in home appliances and audio-visual equipment, with year-on-year growth of 30.4% and 22.9% respectively [6] - Local governments are also launching consumption coupon plans in various sectors such as culture, tourism, and dining to further stimulate market activity, complementing the "old-for-new" policy [6][11] Group 3 - In Jiangsu, various industries are offering consumer coupons to stimulate spending, with initiatives including hotel discounts and dining vouchers, creating a win-win situation for citizens and businesses [7][10] - Chongqing is enhancing the "ticket economy" by providing discounts for dining and attractions, integrating sports, culture, and consumption to offer diverse experiences for visitors [9] - The contribution rate of domestic demand to GDP growth in the first half of the year was 68.8%, with final consumption expenditure contributing 52%, highlighting the role of consumption as a main driver of economic growth [13]

Group 1 - The company reported a strong performance in Q2, with a revenue of 3.58 billion yuan and a net profit of 750 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth in transaction volume of 10.9% to 54 billion yuan and an 18.1% increase in loan balance to 77.5 billion yuan [4] - Domestic transaction volume reached 50.8 billion yuan in Q2, with a year-on-year growth of 9.5%, while the loan balance was 75.4 billion yuan, up 17.4% [1][4] - The company has repurchased shares worth 63.8 million dollars in the first half of the year, supporting its strategic initiatives [1] Group 2 - The company invested nearly 130 million yuan in R&D in Q2, marking an 8.2% increase year-on-year, focusing on enhancing its fraud detection systems [2] - The upgraded defense system against complex AI fraud achieved a detection accuracy of 98.8%, while the self-developed visual AI can identify forged images with a recognition rate of 95% [2] - The company has implemented multiple verification methods, including dynamic facial recognition and real-time video authentication, to enhance security measures [2] Group 3 - The international business transaction volume exceeded 3.2 billion yuan in Q2, showing a year-on-year growth of 39%, with revenue nearing 800 million yuan, up 41.5% [1] - As of the end of Q2, the company has served a total of 8.7 million overseas users, indicating a diversified business expansion [1]