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债市情绪面周报(6月第4周):一致预期下7成固收卖方看多债市-20250623
Huaan Securities· 2025-06-23 11:00
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The current market has a strong consensus on the bond market. Geopolitical and macro - environmental factors are favorable to the bond market, and the monetary policy is in a loosening trend. The impact of supply logic is expected to slow down in the third quarter. One can continue to explore convex points on the curve and certain bond types with spreads, and should also set up right - side profit - taking strategies at the end of the half - year [3]. - More than 70% of fixed - income sellers are bullish on the bond market this week, and the sentiment has significantly warmed up. The sentiment index of both sellers and buyers is approaching the annual high, with more than half of the institutions being bullish [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Seller and Buyer Markets 1.1 Seller Market Sentiment Index and Interest - rate Bonds - The weighted sentiment index this week is 0.55, and the unweighted index is 0.68, up 0.11 from last week. 72% of institutions are bullish, 21% neutral, and 7% bearish [11]. 1.2 Buyer Market Sentiment Index and Interest - rate Bonds - The buyer sentiment index this week is 0.35, up 0.12 from last week. 52% of institutions are bullish, and 48% are neutral [12]. 1.3 Credit Bonds - Market hot topics include seasonal entry of wealth management products and market's expectation of monetary easing. After the quarter - end, the scale of wealth management products expands, and the central bank maintains a loose capital environment [18]. 1.4 Convertible Bonds - This week, institutions hold a neutral - to - bullish view. 23% of institutions are bullish, and 77% are neutral [20]. 2. Treasury Futures Tracking 2.1 Futures Trading - As of June 20, the prices, trading volumes, and open interests of TS/TF/T/TL treasury futures contracts all increased, while the trading - to - open - interest ratios generally decreased [22][23]. 2.2 Spot Bond Trading - On June 20, the turnover rate of 30Y treasury bonds and interest - rate bonds increased, while that of 10Y CDB bonds decreased [31][34]. 2.3 Basis Trading - As of June 20, the basis of the TS contract widened, and the net basis of TS and T contracts widened. The IRR of TF slightly decreased, while others increased [39][43]. 2.4 Spread Trading - As of June 20, except for the narrowing of the inter - delivery spread of the T contract, other inter - delivery spreads and all inter - product spreads widened [51].