全球 业绩报告 Q2 2025 基于2025年第三季度 的初步数据 引言 私人资本的业绩报告具有滞后性，这意味着我们现在才提供2025年第二季度的最终数字。现在感觉时间已久远，但 那不过是2025年4月2日，唐纳德·特朗普总统的"解放日"关税宣布让全球市场陷入混乱。关税冲击引发了关于通货膨 胀压力重新出现的担忧、供应链堵塞，以及对经济增长放缓的恐慌。尽管不确定性很高，但公共股权市场表现出韧 性，在大约一个月内恢复损失，并且在当年剩余时间里持续稳步上升。然而，在多个未解决的地缘政治热点、人工 智能资产泡沫的恐惧、私营信贷可能出现的裂痕、顽固的通货膨胀和劳动力市场担忧之下，投资者情绪依然不稳定 。 对于私人资本，短期市场波动不会实时反映，但可能影响分配者的观点和未来净资产价值（NAV）的确定。尽管 投资者情绪依然脆弱，但私人市场出现了一些令人鼓舞的迹象。2025年末，私募股权（PE）和风险投资（VC） 的交易活动加速。这种复苏预示着对有限合伙人（LP）的分配将有所改善，尽管它们在大多数私人资本策略中仍 然面临挑战，并且低于长期平均水平。 近期新冠疫情后的经济逆风导致短期回报不及长期平均水平。更具体地说，利率敏感性 ...

在经历了春节长假的休整之后，2月24日A股市场量价齐升，资金入场意愿较为强烈。 与此同时，结构性分化的暗流也在涌动。油气、有色、化工等资源品板块全线走强，影视院线、AI应 用等题材则显著回调。这种"冰火两重天"的格局，使得A股在马年的平稳开局中暗藏分歧。多家一线私 募机构在接受中国证券报记者采访时表示，马年A股首日走势验证了节前的乐观预期，但市场主线也在 逐步切换，投资者需要在"科技"与"资源"的双线逻辑中重新校准攻守节奏。 ● 本报记者 王辉 马科伟同样坚持"左手高质量成长、右手大空间赛道"的均衡思路。他认为，近期海外科技股的震荡反映 出市场对AI的审视正从"讲故事"转向"看业绩"。国内投资机会将更聚焦于能够看到实际订单、具备明确 商业化路径的细分领域，如机器人和国产算力。在地缘风险支撑下，叠加全球流动性宽松预期，贵金 属、石油、有色、化工等资源品板块当前具备持续的上涨驱动力。 也有机构显现出谨慎态度。宝晓辉坦言，她更看好有色金属与石油能源板块的阶段性投资机会，对科技 板块则保持相对谨慎。"科技板块近期震荡幅度偏大，多空分歧突出。虽然长期来看，科技赛道依然是 优质方向，但不适合在当前阶段重仓参与。"宝晓辉表 ...

Core Insights - The geopolitical situation continues to influence gold prices, which have recently surpassed the $5,000 mark, maintaining strong buying momentum in the market [1][2] - Despite gold reaching a high of $5,216.30 per ounce, the increased volatility of precious metals may pose risks for sustained growth into 2026, suggesting that gold is becoming a high-volatility risk asset rather than a safe haven [1][2] Market Dynamics - Current asset pricing shows extreme divergence, with gold's performance relative to the commodity spot index reaching a new high since 1960, and its ratio to U.S. Treasury yields hitting a peak not seen since 1982 [3] - This rare "crocodile mouth" price gap indicates that mean reversion pressure is building, and if market logic shifts from panic premium to normalcy, undervalued long-term U.S. Treasuries may become a more attractive investment choice later this year [3] Risk Asset Interconnections - The interconnectedness of risk assets is becoming increasingly complex, with signs of a shift in risk appetite indicated by the weakness in the cryptocurrency market and Bitcoin trading below $70,000 [3] - The current low volatility of the S&P 500 index suggests that if the high volatility of precious metals spills over into the stock market, it could trigger a deflationary chain reaction, forcing a significant reallocation of funds across different asset classes [3] Future Outlook - Looking ahead to 2026, the prevailing market theme may be a systematic correction in valuations, prompting investors to carefully assess the risks of gold's potential pullback after its parabolic rise, especially as physical demand may be suppressed by high prices [4] - Instead of chasing overheated trends, a reassessment of the ratio between U.S. Treasuries and gold may provide a more stable refuge during potential mean reversion cycles [4]

【最新现货黄金行情解析】 彭博情报高级策略师迈克.麦克格隆最新报告指出，黄金近年显著跑赢美债及其他大宗商品，但若市场 趋于正常化，可能已逼近"终局"。他提醒，2025年中至今的金价上涨伴随更高波动，使其更像风险资产 而非避险工具。 麦克格隆认为，金价相对彭博商品指数已达1960年以来峰值，相对美债收益率则为1982年来最高，均值 回归或将利好美债而非黄金。以2004年为基数的TLT/GLD比率降至39，处ETF历史低位，而美30年期国 债收益率重回5%(2007年来最高)，形成"鳄鱼嘴"形态，预示2026年或迎均值回归。 他强调，黄金极端溢价与风险资产逆转可能叠加债券收益率下行，强化通缩而非通胀。触发因素或为金 银高波动蔓延至股市——当前标普500波动率处八年低位，风险积聚。若TLT相对标普500和黄金上涨， 或标志新一轮行情启动。 摘要今日周二(2月24日)亚盘时段，在地缘政治不确定性助推下，金价重新站上每盎司5000美元关口， 新交易周伊始跟进买盘涌现。然而，一位市场策略师提醒，黄金的高波动性对2026年进一步上涨并非好 兆头。他指出，剧烈波动往往伴随资金快进快出，不利于形成稳定上升趋势，投资者需警惕短线 ...

文章来源：金十数据 在地缘政治不确定性推动金价重新站上每盎司5000美元关口后，新交易周伊始出现了一些跟进买盘；然 而，一位市场策略师警告投资者，这种贵金属的高波动性对2026年的进一步上涨并非吉兆。 彭博情报高级市场策略师迈克·麦克格隆（Mike McGlone）上周发布的一份研究报告称，显著跑赢美国 国债和其他大宗商品的黄金，如果市场状况开始正常化，可能正接近其"终局"，并补充说，当前的格局 对更广泛的市场具有潜在的通货紧缩影响。 他指出，自2022年底以来一直处于前所未有上升趋势的黄金，几十年来一直跑赢其他资产和大宗商品； 但他补充说，自2025年年中到新年以来的上涨伴随着更高的波动性。许多分析师观察到，在这种环境 下，黄金更像是一种风险资产，而非防御性工具。 由于黄金价格走势过度延伸，麦克格隆表示，今年剩余时间内，均值回归可能支持美国国债而非这种贵 金属。他指出，黄金价格相对于彭博商品现货指数已达到1960年以来的最高水平，而相对于美国国债收 益率的水平则是1982年以来的最高点。 他在报告中写道："以2004年为基数100，2月28日TLT与GLD的比率（长期美债ETF/黄金ETF SPDR Gol ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, over 83.8% of quantitative funds achieved returns exceeding 20%, indicating a strong performance in a favorable market environment [6][8]. Group 1: Market Overview - The market in 2025 experienced a significant rebound after previous years of volatility, providing a conducive environment for quantitative strategies [3][8]. - A total of 37 quantitative funds were analyzed, with 31 funds reporting returns over 20% [6][8]. Group 2: Fund Performance - The top three performing funds in 2025 were: - Silver华新能源新材料量化股票发起式A (005037.OF) with a return of 54.11% - 广发量化多因子混合A (005225.OF) with a return of 52.72% - 易方达智造能量化策略混合A (005437.OF) with a return of 50.21% [8]. - 14 funds achieved returns over 40%, accounting for 37% of the sample [9]. Group 3: Historical Context and Strategy - The performance of funds like 银华新能源新材料量化股票发起式A reflects a "mean reversion" phenomenon, with significant fluctuations in previous years [11]. - The ability of quantitative funds to adapt and improve their models has enhanced their capacity to capture excess returns [8][20]. Group 4: Advantages of Quantitative Funds - Quantitative funds benefit from strict discipline in trading, avoiding emotional biases that can affect human decision-making [20]. - They have a broad coverage of the market, allowing them to identify opportunities across thousands of stocks, which is particularly advantageous in rapidly changing market conditions [20]. - The continuous evolution of quantitative strategies, especially with advancements in AI, has led to improved performance metrics over time [20].

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 张翼轸 来源：雪球 春节前串台播客，聊了很多关于 4000 点之上的心理按摩。其实到了这个点位，我个人是处于且战且退的状态。我不去奢望这一波一定能走出长 牛，因为我是一个不相信 "这一次不一样" 的人。 在那次聊天中，我提到了好莱坞的一部喜剧电影，亚当・桑德勒演的《人生遥控器》。电影里有一个遥控器，一按就可以快进到未来。那部片子其 实是喜剧外壳下的悲剧，但对我们做投资的人来说，它提供了一个极佳的思想实验。 没人能跳过的三年熊市 很多时候我就在想，如果我们手里真的有这么一个遥控器，投资这事儿其实非常好做。 大家都说 A 股是 "熊三年，牛三年"。如果我有遥控器，我在牛市顶点按一下暂停键离场，然后按快进键把这三年的熊市直接跳过，等到那个无人 问津的底部我再按播放键买回来。你会发现中国的股市其实就这么好做，这简直是完美的投资体验。 可现实最残酷的地方就在于，我们没有这个遥控器。 熊市的那三年阴跌，你是要用肉身一天一天去扛的。在这个漫长的过程里，你还要面对无数的不确定性。 回想一下，在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company "Bank Screw" has completely suspended subscriptions to its stock-related fund advisory portfolio, indicating that the current stock market is relatively high and investors may face a volatility risk of 20-30% if they enter now [2][19]. Group 1: Market Conditions and Investment Strategies - The current stock market is perceived as being at a high level, prompting the suspension of fund subscriptions [3][19]. - For ordinary investors, dividend index funds are recommended due to their relatively lower volatility, making them more suitable as an entry point [3][10]. - The recent performance of the STAR Market and ChiNext has shown significant volatility, making them more appropriate for experienced investors with higher risk tolerance [3][9]. - In 2026, two key signals to watch are the Federal Reserve's interest rate cycle and the recovery of fundamentals, which could impact market conditions significantly [4][22]. Group 2: Investor Behavior and Fund Performance - A notable phenomenon exists where funds may be profitable while individual investors are not, with 37% of investors still losing money despite a bull market [7][8]. - The primary reasons for investor losses include chasing trends and frequent trading, which lead to higher transaction costs and lower average returns [8][10]. - The growth of dividend products has been accelerated by declining interest rates, making their cash flow more attractive compared to traditional savings [11][12]. Group 3: Valuation and Investment Timing - The historical price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for major indices like the CSI 300 is between 8-15, with the current P/E ratio slightly above this range, indicating a potential overvaluation [14][15]. - Investors are advised to be cautious during bull markets, as significant price increases may not be sustainable, leading to potential mean reversion [16][17]. - The optimal investment strategy varies by market phase, with dividend stocks being more suitable in the latter stages of a bull market and early stages of a bear market [12][13]. Group 4: Key Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and the overall recovery of corporate earnings are critical indicators for market performance in 2026 [22][27]. - Observing the year-on-year growth of corporate earnings in the first half of the year will be essential to gauge market momentum [28].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the stock market and investment strategies, emphasizing the risks associated with high market valuations and the importance of cautious investment approaches for ordinary investors [2][24]. Group 1: Market Conditions and Investment Strategies - "Banking Screw" has completely suspended the subscription of stock-related fund advisory portfolios, indicating a belief that the current stock market is relatively high, with potential volatility risks of 20-30% for new investors [2][24]. - Ordinary investors are advised to consider low-volatility dividend index funds as a more suitable entry point due to their relative stability compared to high-volatility sectors like the Sci-Tech Board and Growth Enterprise Market [4][12]. - The article highlights the importance of understanding market cycles, suggesting that in a bull market's later stages, investors should be cautious and consider dividend strategies, while growth stocks may be more suitable during bear market recovery phases [18][19]. Group 2: Investor Behavior and Fund Performance - A significant portion of fund investors have experienced losses despite overall fund profitability, with 37% of investors losing money even in a bull market as of September 2025 [9][10]. - The primary reasons for investor losses include chasing market trends and frequent trading, which lead to higher transaction costs and lower average returns [10][11]. - The article notes that the growth of dividend funds has been accelerated by declining interest rates, making their cash flow more attractive compared to traditional savings [13][14]. Group 3: Key Signals for 2026 - Two critical signals for 2026 include the Federal Reserve's interest rate cycle and the recovery of corporate earnings, which could significantly impact market conditions [5][30]. - The article emphasizes the need to monitor the recovery of earnings growth to historical averages, as this could provide a positive push for the overall market [37][38]. - The potential tightening of global liquidity due to the end of the Fed's rate-cutting cycle is highlighted as a risk factor that could affect previously high-performing assets [33][34].

欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 市场总在讲述不同的故事 。 有些故事关乎增长，有些故事关乎恐惧。狂欢戛然而止，困惑与恐慌取而代之。这一次，故事的主角是黄金和白银。金价创下近四十年来最大的 单日跌幅，白银则一度将年内惊人的涨幅全部归还。但这真的仅仅关于黄金和白银吗？ 或许，我们更应该将它视为一堂公开课：当一种资产的价格，主要由一个激动人心却难以证伪的宏大叙事所驱动时，它的根基究竟是什么？当所 有人都拥挤在同一条船上，任何一点风向的改变，又会引发怎样的连锁反应？ 本文无意预测金银市场的下一站。我们更想借这次剧烈的波动，与你一同审视那些在狂热中容易被忽略的本质：资产的内在基因有何不同？推动 价格的力量来自哪里？以及最重要的——作为投资者，当市场的故事突然换档，我们该如何自处，才能避免成为纯粹的情绪俘虏？ 剥开具体数字的表象，我们将会走过三个阶段：看清驱动力的转换，理解不同资产的核心逻辑，最终回归到个人决策的纪律与静气。让我们开 始。 导火索背后：一次迟到的压力测试 01 这次暴跌，表面上看是因为美联储新主席的提名消息。但实际上，这是一次迟到的压力测试。 要理解这点，得回到推动之前 ...