如今的房地产行业虽说没之前那么景气了，但依旧是人们关注的焦点。 尤其是28号曝出曾经提出"小目标"的王健林被限制高消费，更是全网关注的对象。 搞得很多人心里犯嘀咕，再加上网上流传关于楼市的小视频什么说法都有。 这房地产还能不能碰了？郎咸平教授带领团队展开调查。 直言这类内容不仅对政府政策产生极大误导，还干扰消费者与投资者的判断，力求还原市场真相。 团队对海量短视频进行全面量化分析，筛选出189个内容独立的视频。 这些视频宣称北京、上海、广州、深圳四座城市楼盘跌幅达40%至73%，并将降价原因归咎于房地产不景气、开发商资金链断裂跑路等。 但经深入核查，郎咸平教授明确指出，这些说法均为博流量而编造的谎言。他将误导性短视频归纳为五大骗局，首当其冲的就是公寓降价骗局，涉及52个案 例。 以上海某短视频为例，其声称当地楼盘暴跌73%，但查证显示，70年产权的正常住宅价格未降，降价的实为公寓。 另有视频称某海景豪宅暴跌50%至60%，而该区域70年产权住宅单价稳定在13.9万元/平方米，所谓"七字头单价"的降价房源均为商业公寓。 这些公寓常以低价为噱头，通过对比住宅价格或渲染开发商跑路氛围制造降价假象，实际上公寓价格波动 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent data on Tokyo's consumer price index (CPI) indicates a weaker-than-expected inflation trend, which may impact the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decisions, particularly regarding interest rate hikes [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Tokyo region's September CPI showed a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, below the market expectation of 2.8% [1] - This data reflects a marginal weakening of domestic inflation momentum in Japan [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Expectations - Despite the CPI data, most institutions and traders still anticipate that the Bank of Japan may implement a rate hike in October [1] - The rationale behind this expectation is that inflation in Japan has consistently exceeded the central bank's price stability target [1] Group 3: Currency Dynamics - The weak yen is contributing to import-driven inflation pressures, which policymakers cannot overlook [1] - The recent global financial market sentiment has shown signs of weakening, with geopolitical tensions and economic slowdown concerns reinforcing the yen's traditional safe-haven status [1] Group 4: Market Reactions - The combination of disappointing inflation data and ongoing rate hike expectations has led to a tug-of-war in the yen's performance [1] - If global risk aversion continues to rise or if the Bank of Japan signals any unexpected normalization of policy, it could provide significant support for the yen in the medium term [1]

跟踪上海期货交易所白银主力合约的国投白银LOF大涨3.11%。 在中国古代，北宋金银比等于9，清朝大约10。 大家都知道黄金涨得猛，其实白银更猛，今年白银涨幅已经超过黄金。 1 金银比 业内有种说法，黄金白银都属于贵金属，白银是高波动版的黄金，金银行情正相关，可以用二者的价格比来估值，简称金银比。 金银比起源于2600年前。 土耳其西部有个吕底亚王国，当地盛产金银。吕底亚国王克罗伊斯主持铸造了世界上最早的金币和银币，并约定1枚金币兑换13枚银币。 金银比等于13。 金银即货币的时代，金银比和当时已探明的黄金白银储量以及开采难度挂钩，各国金银比差不太多，比较稳定。 2 定价中枢 就这样一直持续到几十年前，布雷顿森林体系解体，全球进入信用货币时代，汇率不再锚定金银。 金银重新定价，金银比的中枢来到60~80区间。 极值最高100，最低40。 所以衍生出刻舟求剑的玩法，比如金银比超过100就做多白银，赌均值归回。 3 赌均值回归 上图一张，蓝线代表金银比，红线代表白银价格。 今年4月，金银比站上100。 貌似利用金银比赚钱很简单，但我一直没参与，因为逻辑不够硬。 金银重新定价之后，黄金负责保值，白银用于工业。 黄金 ...

宏观经济宏观周报 高频指标继续提示经济回暖 主要结论：高频指标继续提示经济回暖。 经济增长方面，本周(9 月 26 日所在周）国信高频宏观扩散指数 A 维持正值， 指数 B 继续明显上升。从分项来看，本周投资、房地产领域景气继续上升， 消费领域景气变化不大，本周投资、房地产领域表现较优。从季节性比较来 看，本周指数 B 标准化后上升 0.43，表现明显强于历史平均水平，指向国内 经济增长动能继续回暖。 证券研究报告 | 2025年09月28日 基于国信高频宏观扩散指数对资产价格进行预测，显示当前国内利率偏低， 上证综合指数偏高，从均值回归的角度看，预计下周（2025 年 10 月 3 日所 在周）十年期国债利率将上行，上证综合指数将下行。 周度价格高频跟踪方面： （1）本周食品、非食品价格均上涨。预计 9 月 CPI 食品价格环比约为 1.5%， 非食品价格环比约为零，整体 CPI 环比约为 0.3%，CPI 同比回升至-0.1%。 （2）9 月上旬国内流通领域生产资料价格继续下跌且跌幅有所扩大，9 月中 旬延续下跌。预计 9 月 PPI 环比约为-0.1%，低基数背景下 PPI 同比或回升 至-2.4%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Huafu Fund's fixed income team has successfully repositioned its "fixed income +" product line to adapt to market changes, focusing on sustainable long-term returns through disciplined asset management and risk-return characteristics [1][4][5]. Group 1: Product Strategy and Development - Huafu Fund's fixed income team has been a pioneer in the "fixed income +" sector, exploring yield enhancement strategies such as convertible bonds and risk parity, achieving significant market recognition [1][4]. - The team has restructured its product line to cover a range of risk-return profiles from low volatility to high volatility, ensuring clear return and drawdown targets for each product [5][6]. - The team has developed a series of clearly defined products, including dividend strategies and risk parity strategies, while improving the stability of product styles and risk-return characteristics [5][6]. Group 2: Market Adaptation and Investment Philosophy - The investment philosophy of Huafu Fund has evolved to reduce reliance on subjective predictions, focusing instead on the inherent risk-return characteristics of products [7][8]. - The team emphasizes a bottom-up approach to identify lower-risk, higher-certainty opportunities based on risk budgets and return objectives, adapting to the increased market uncertainty [7][8]. - Despite market volatility, the team believes that the mean reversion logic still applies, with asset performance influenced by policy and market dynamics [8][9]. Group 3: Current Market Conditions and Future Outlook - The current market environment presents challenges for "fixed income +" strategies, particularly due to the "stock-bond seesaw" effect, where equity assets are performing strongly while pure bond assets experience increased volatility [9][10]. - Huafu Fund anticipates that in a context of loose monetary policy and declining interest rates, strategies focusing on coupon and leverage may outperform duration strategies [10]. - The team is adjusting its convertible bond strategy to focus on equity-oriented bonds while managing exposure to lower-priced assets to control portfolio drawdown [10].

Core Viewpoint - Huafu Fund's fixed income team has successfully repositioned its "fixed income +" product line to adapt to market changes, focusing on sustainable long-term returns through disciplined asset management [1][2][4] Group 1: Product Line Repositioning - Huafu Fund's fixed income team has been exploring yield enhancement strategies such as convertible bonds and IPO investments even before the "fixed income +" concept was clearly defined in the domestic market [2] - The team has restructured its product line to cover various risk-return profiles, categorizing products into low, medium-low, medium, and high volatility strategies [2][4] - The repositioning process has led to improved performance metrics, with products achieving their respective return and drawdown control targets [4] Group 2: Investment Strategy Evolution - The investment approach has shifted from a top-down perspective to a focus on the inherent risk-return characteristics of assets, reducing reliance on subjective predictions [6][7] - The team emphasizes the importance of clear product positioning and risk-return characteristics to cater to different investor preferences and market conditions [4][6] - The current market environment suggests that pure bond investments may benefit more from coupon and leverage strategies rather than duration strategies [9] Group 3: Market Conditions and Future Outlook - The recent stock market rally is attributed to declining risk-free rates and a rebound in risk appetite, although the sustainability of economic recovery remains uncertain [8][9] - The fixed income team believes that the bond market will continue to face pressure, particularly in long-duration bonds, while short-duration and coupon strategies may be more suitable in the current environment [9][10] - The team is adjusting its convertible bond strategy to focus more on equity-like instruments while dynamically managing positions to control drawdowns [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation and repositioning of Huafu Fund's "Fixed Income +" product line, emphasizing the importance of sustainable returns and risk management in the current market environment [1][2][4]. Group 1: Product Line Repositioning - Huafu Fund's fixed income team has accumulated extensive experience in various yield-enhancing strategies, including convertible bonds and risk parity, and has restructured its "Fixed Income +" product line to cover a range of risk-return profiles from low to high volatility [1][2]. - The team has redefined the positioning of its products based on risk-return characteristics, categorizing them into low, medium-low, medium, and high volatility, which helps clarify investment goals and risk management [2][4]. - The introduction of new strategies, such as dividend and risk parity strategies, has improved the stability and risk-return characteristics of the products, with a focus on multi-asset allocation in the future [3][4]. Group 2: Investment Strategy Evolution - The investment approach has shifted from a top-down perspective to a more asset-focused strategy, emphasizing the importance of risk-return characteristics and reducing reliance on subjective predictions [5][6]. - The current market environment has increased uncertainty, necessitating adjustments in investment paradigms, with a focus on finding lower-risk, higher-certainty opportunities [5][6]. - The team is now prioritizing ticket interest and leverage strategies over duration strategies, as the market anticipates a mild upward trend in equities, which may exert pressure on bond assets [7][8]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Challenges - The article highlights the challenges faced by the "Fixed Income +" products due to the performance drag from equity assets, prompting a reevaluation of their positioning [2][4]. - The current economic recovery is viewed with caution, as the sustainability of growth remains uncertain, and the market is still in a phase of weighing options [7]. - The team believes that while the bond market is supported by low interest rates, the pressure on long-duration bonds is expected to increase, leading to a preference for shorter-duration and ticket interest strategies [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese stock market is expected to enter a structural "slow bull" phase, driven by policy support, technological innovation, and improved corporate governance, following a significant turning point on "9·24" last year [1][3][11]. Group 1: Market Transition - The date "9·24" is identified as a crucial turning point for the Chinese stock market, marking a shift from previous underperformance to a leading position among global markets [3][5]. - The Chinese stock market's rise this year is attributed to both internal and external factors, with internal factors being dominant [3][5]. Group 2: Economic Context - Comparisons are made to the 2008 U.S. subprime crisis and Japan's 1990s real estate bubble, highlighting that China has not faced a financial crisis despite real estate issues, although local fiscal problems have emerged [5]. - The Chinese government has implemented a comprehensive set of policies, including monetary and fiscal easing, to address local debt issues, similar to the U.S. government's actions during the 2008 crisis [5][6]. Group 3: Corporate Behavior and Market Dynamics - There is a notable shift in A-share companies towards enhancing shareholder returns, with an increase in dividends and share buybacks, leading to a positive net shareholder return rate [6][10]. - The market has seen significant technological innovations, which have contributed to a stable market environment since "9·24" [6][10]. Group 4: Future Market Outlook - The past year is viewed as a mean reversion period for the A-share market, with potential for continued upward movement based on historical trends [8][10]. - The likelihood of a "crazy bull" market is considered low, with expectations leaning towards a "slow bull" market driven by structural factors [10][11].

况且现在市场高位震荡——上证指数徘徊在3800点半月多，红利资产具有高息特质，比较适合观望期布 局或紧急避险。 今天早盘半导体板块再度成为市场焦点，受英伟达斥资50亿美元入股英特的重大利好推动，芯片股几乎 全线上涨。固态电池概念盘中也再度走强，赣锋锂业涨停。 但从昨天跳水和今天上午沪指震荡回调的走势来看，市场在高位的脆弱性和分歧正在加大，因此资金对 高股息红利资产的配置需求也开始升温。 数据显示，两市红利"标杆品种"——中证红利ETF（515080）已经连续5天吸金，累计资金净流入高达 3.23亿元。截至午盘，该ETF收涨0.52%。 从最新中证红利全收益相对万得全A的40日收益差数据看，截至9月18号，这个40日收益差数据已经跌 到了-14.58%——这说明红利资产已经跑输A股太多，现在布局位置很划算。 懂"均值回归"的都知道，每当40日收益差处在一个阶段性低位，都意味着红利资产已经跌出了性价比， 往往很容易吸引资金流入，后续很可能很快就会反弹。 虽然现在行情火热，但大盘高位震荡，热点板块轮动速度又快，不妨买点红利资产作为我们组合"压舱 石"。尤其是中证红利ETF（515080）这种产品，还有季季分红的评估 ...

Group 1: Valuation of Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) - The current share price of CBA is approximately $169, but the actual valuation may differ based on various models [1] - The price-earnings (PE) ratio for CBA is calculated to be 30x, compared to the banking sector average of 20x, leading to a sector-adjusted PE valuation of $109.86 [6] - A dividend discount model (DDM) suggests a valuation of CBA shares at $98.33, which can increase to $100.66 when using an adjusted dividend payment [11][12] Group 2: Dividend Preferences and Market Position - Australian investors favor bank shares, particularly for dividend income, due to the oligopolistic nature of the banking sector [2][3] - CBA and other major banks are seen as stable investments, especially for those seeking franking credits from fully franked dividends [3] Group 3: Valuation Methodologies - The DDM is highlighted as a more effective valuation method for banks, relying on consistent or modestly growing dividends [8] - The valuation formula used in DDM is Share price = full-year dividend / (risk rate – dividend growth rate), which requires careful consideration of growth and risk assumptions [9][10]