Oracle Corp (NYSE:ORCL) is torching cash to build its AI cloud—but it's still sending billions back to shareholders. That tension is becoming one of the most underappreciated capital allocation stories in Big Tech.On Friday, Oracle will pay out roughly $1.4 billion in dividends, even as analysts expect nearly $23 billion in cash burn this fiscal year. On paper, cutting the dividend looks logical. In reality, it's complicated.Track ORCL stock here.Larry Ellison’s Stake Raises The Bar For A CutCo-founder and ...

Baidu Inc. 4Q25 Preview Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Baidu Inc (BIDU.O) - **Industry**: China Internet and Other Services - **Market Cap**: US$51.804 billion - **Current Stock Price**: US$149.53 (as of January 16, 2026) - **Price Target**: Increased from US$130.00 to US$150.00 Key Financial Metrics - **Core Revenue**: Expected at Rmb26.1 billion, a decline of 5.6% YoY [1][14] - **Operating Profit (OP)**: Expected at Rmb2.8 billion, down 40.5% YoY [1][4] - **Online Marketing Revenue**: Anticipated decline of 16% YoY [2][11] - **Non-Marketing Revenue**: Expected growth of 13.3% YoY [14] - **AI Cloud Revenue**: Projected to grow 5% YoY, significantly slower than 21% in 3Q25 [3][11] Core Insights - **Advertising Revenue**: Online ads revenue is expected to decline by 16%, an improvement from a 19% decline in 3Q25. AI-generated content is becoming more prevalent, with over 70% of mobile search result pages now featuring it, although monetization remains limited [2][11]. - **AI Cloud Performance**: The slower growth in AI cloud revenue is attributed to a high base from the previous year and slower growth in personal cloud services, which account for approximately 30% of AI cloud revenue [3][11]. - **Operational Efficiency**: Non-GAAP operating profit is expected to improve quarter-over-quarter due to efficiency enhancements and depreciation gains, with further savings anticipated from organizational restructuring [4][11]. Upcoming Events - **Dividend Announcement**: Potential announcement alongside 4Q results and renewal/expansion of the buyback program (previously US$5 billion) [5][11]. - **Kunlunxin Listing**: Anticipated Hong Kong listing within six months [5][11]. - **Robotaxi Value Unlocking**: Apollo Go has received fully driverless licenses in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, indicating progress in autonomous vehicle initiatives [5][11]. Valuation and Market Position - **Valuation Methodology**: The new price target of US$150 is based on a sum-of-the-parts approach, including a DCF model with an 11% discount rate and a 3% terminal growth rate [16][22]. - **Comparison with Peers**: Trading at a 2026 estimated P/E of 18x, compared to 17-18x for Tencent and Alibaba [6][11]. Risks and Considerations - **Market Environment**: A weak macroeconomic environment and risks associated with AI disruption may hinder the recovery of search ads [22][40]. - **AI Monetization**: The monetization of AI technologies is still in its early stages and has not yet shown significant financial impact [27][40]. Summary of Financial Estimates - **Total Revenue**: Expected to decline to Rmb128.959 billion in 2025, with a slight recovery projected in subsequent years [19][21]. - **Net Income**: Anticipated to be Rmb6.136 billion in 2025, with a gradual increase in the following years [19][21]. - **Operating Margins**: Expected to improve slightly but remain under pressure due to declining revenues [19][21]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the earnings preview for Baidu Inc., highlighting the company's financial expectations, operational strategies, and market outlook.

Core Viewpoint - IREN Limited has garnered investor interest following an upgrade from H.C. Wainwright, reflecting confidence in its AI-driven growth and strategic partnerships [1][6] Financial Performance - IREN's stock price is currently at $50.59, showing a slight increase of 0.52% today, with fluctuations between $49.82 and $51.84 [4] - The company has experienced a significant price range over the past year, with a high of $76.87 and a low of $5.13, indicating market volatility [4] - IREN has a market capitalization of approximately $14.34 billion and a trading volume of 18.47 million shares, positioning it as a notable player in the tech industry [5] Growth Projections - IREN aims for $3.4 billion in annualized AI cloud revenue by the end of 2026, supported by multi-year contracts and a partnership with Microsoft [2][6] - Despite a recent 17% decline in stock price, IREN is still rated as a 'Strong Buy' due to its growth potential [2] Valuation Metrics - The company trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio below 5 and a fiscal year 2028 price-to-earnings ratio of 16, suggesting an attractive valuation compared to peers [3][6]

Core Insights - The AI sector is experiencing significant growth, with AI stocks poised for another rally driven by innovations like humanoid robots and autonomous vehicles [2] - Energy has emerged as a critical bottleneck for AI workloads, creating new investment opportunities in companies like IREN [3][4] Group 1: AI Market Dynamics - AI has become one of the best investment opportunities, combining rapid adoption with real revenue growth [2] - The semiconductor sector was the initial focus during the AI boom, but energy-related stocks are expected to be the next winners [3] Group 2: IREN's Position and Growth Potential - IREN is highlighted as a compelling investment due to its ability to meet the energy demands of AI workloads [3] - IREN's largest contract with Microsoft is valued at $9.7 billion over five years, providing nearly $2 billion in annual recurring revenue [9] - The company has a multi-gigawatt pipeline that supports future growth, with expectations of securing additional contracts [10] Group 3: Revenue Growth Projections - IREN aims to achieve $3.4 billion in annualized AI cloud revenue by the end of 2026, a significant increase from $16.4 million in fiscal 2025 [12][13] - The company reported $7.5 million in AI cloud revenue in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, indicating strong growth potential [13] - IREN's ability to scale its services and meet demand is crucial for its revenue growth, as each new contract can significantly boost annual revenue [11][14]

Core Company Insights - CoreWeave's stock has increased by 21% following its partnership with the Department of Energy's Genesis mission, where it will provide AI cloud support for advanced scientific workloads [2][12] - The company is expanding its commitment to the public sector, having launched CoreWeave Federal to focus on government agencies and the defense industrial base, with plans for FedRAMP certification [3][4] - CoreWeave aims to position itself alongside major players like Microsoft, Google, and Nvidia in the federal AI cloud discussion [4] Revenue and Client Base - Approximately 90% of CoreWeave's revenue is derived from the private sector, with significant contracts from major clients such as Microsoft, OpenAI, and Meta [5] - Microsoft accounted for roughly half of CoreWeave's revenue in 2024, while the company has a $22 billion deal with OpenAI and over $4 billion with Meta [5] Market Dynamics and Competition - The company is experiencing volatility due to its concentrated revenue sources and the potential for major clients to develop their own infrastructure, reducing reliance on CoreWeave [6][10] - CoreWeave is investing heavily in data center expansion, including a $6 billion build-out in Pennsylvania and a recent issuance of $2 billion in convertible bonds [7] - The competitive landscape is intensifying as hyperscalers increase their presence, contributing to market volatility [7][10] Financial Considerations - Concerns exist regarding the sustainability of CoreWeave's debt and whether the investments in infrastructure will yield short-term returns [11][12] - The company faces challenges related to construction delays, power supply issues, and supply chain disruptions, which could impact its financial performance [11]

Group 1 - Nebius Group (NASDAQ:NBIS) has been initiated with an Outperform rating and a price target of $175 by Citizens JMP, highlighting its potential as a key provider of power supply for HPC and AI [1] - The company reported a year-over-year revenue growth of 355% in Q3 2025, reaching $146 million, driven by significant contracts with Meta and Microsoft valued at approximately $3 billion and between $17.4 billion and $19.4 billion, respectively [2] - Nebius is expanding its infrastructure to increase contracted power to 2.5 gigawatts by the end of 2026, necessitating a rise in 2025 CapEx guidance from $2 billion to approximately $5 billion [3] Group 2 - The company focuses on developing its core AI cloud and aims for a high annual recurring revenue (ARR) target of $7 to $9 billion for 2026 [3] - Nebius operates in the technology sector, providing full-stack infrastructure to service the global AI industry across multiple regions including the Netherlands, Europe, North America, and Israel [4]

Core View - CoreWeave Inc has announced a $2 billion private offering of convertible senior notes due in 2031, leading to a stock decline of 6% to 9%, highlighting the financing challenges in the AI boom [1][2] Financing Details - The offering adds significant debt to CoreWeave's balance sheet, with an option for initial buyers to acquire an additional $300 million in notes, aimed at funding AI capacity and meeting demand from hyperscale customers [2][6] - This trend is not unique to CoreWeave; other companies like Nebius Group NV and IREN Ltd have also raised substantial amounts through similar convertible note offerings to support their AI infrastructure initiatives [3][4] Market Reaction - The market's initial response to CoreWeave's announcement was cautious, with shares falling sharply as investors began to consider future dilution rather than celebrating growth [3][5] - The pattern observed in the market indicates a growing concern over how much existing shareholders will retain after the conversion of these notes into equity [5][6] Industry Trends - The emerging theme in AI infrastructure financing shows a focus on explosive growth, while the underlying risks of who will ultimately bear the financial burden are often overlooked [7]

Core Insights - IREN Limited (IREN) shares have surged 370.6% over the past six months, significantly outperforming the Zacks Finance sector's return of 8.8% and the Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry's decline of 2.3% [1] - Despite the impressive stock performance, there are underlying risks that may affect future profitability and stability [1] Financial Performance - IREN's long-term profitability is under pressure due to high capital expenditure (capex) requirements for its AI cloud expansion, with a notable $5.8 billion needed for GPU capital expenditures from a deal with Microsoft (MSFT) [4] - An additional $1.4 billion must be sourced from various financial avenues, increasing future interest obligations and balance-sheet risk [5] - Even after securing 20% in customer prepayments, IREN still needs to obtain approximately $2.5 billion in financing, which will further strain cash flow [5] Capital Expenditure and Operational Risks - The company faces significant incremental construction costs due to accelerated construction at Childress, which includes upgrades and new infrastructure [6] - Ongoing expansion plans in British Columbia and Sweetwater will require continuous funding through 2026 and beyond, elevating financing risk and potentially compressing free cash flow [7] Market Competition and Execution Risks - IREN's entry into the AI and high-performance computing (HPC) markets introduces execution risks, as the company has limited experience in these rapidly evolving sectors [10] - The transition from Application-Specific Integrated Circuit mining to GPU-based AI infrastructure adds operational risks, requiring new capabilities in data center management [11] - IREN faces increasing competition from Applied Digital (APLD) and TeraWulf (WULF), both of which are rapidly advancing in the AI/HPC market [12][13] Earnings Estimates and Trends - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for IREN's fiscal 2025 earnings is currently at 79 cents per share, reflecting a 36.2% upward revision over the past 30 days, but there is a sharp 70% downward revision for fiscal 2026 earnings [16] - Over the last four quarters, IREN has missed earnings estimates three times, with an average negative surprise of 26.52% [17] Technical Indicators - IREN is currently trading below its 50-day moving average, indicating a bearish trend and suggesting limited upside potential in the near term [13]

Core Insights - Nebius Group N.V. (NASDAQ:NBIS) is recognized as a significant player in the AI ecosystem, particularly in the capacity side, which includes GPU clusters and cloud platforms [1] - The company has secured major deals with Microsoft and Meta, with the Microsoft deal valued at $17.4 billion over five years, contributing to a 47% increase in share price following the announcement [2] - The firm completed a secondary offering in September, indicating strong market interest and financial backing [1] Financial Performance - Nebius Group N.V. closed at $94.87, with Citizens Financial setting a price target of $175, reflecting confidence in the company's growth potential [2] - During the third quarter, 65 hedge funds disclosed holdings in Nebius Group N.V., with Jericho Capital Asset Management reporting a notable 56% increase in its position [3] Strategic Partnerships - The CEO of Nebius Group N.V. announced a new deal with Meta valued at approximately $3 billion, emphasizing the company's capacity limitations and potential for larger deals in the future [4] - The partnerships with Microsoft and Meta are seen as pivotal for Nebius Group N.V. to establish itself as a solid player in the AI ecosystem, alleviating concerns related to its previous ties with Yandex [2] Future Outlook - The company aims to continue developing its own AI cloud services, which cater to both large contracts and smaller AI startups and enterprises, indicating a balanced growth strategy [4] - There is optimism regarding the emergence of more large deals, which are expected to provide significant financing for the core AI cloud business [4]

Economic Indicators - Retail Sales for September increased by +0.2%, falling short of expectations and down from +0.6% in the previous two months, marking the lowest level since May's -0.8% [2][8] - The Control number for Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) came in at -0.1%, significantly lower than the +0.3% expected and the worst monthly figure in over a year [3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for September was +0.3%, up from -0.1% the previous month but lower than +0.7% in July; year-over-year PPI increased to +2.7% [4] Employment Data - The preliminary ADP jobs data showed a decline of -13.5K, marking the third consecutive week of job losses, with the 4-week average falling below previous reports [5][6] - Upcoming monthly ADP jobs numbers for October are expected to show a potential weakening in job growth, with a possibility of the headline coming in below zero for four out of the last six months [6] Earnings Reports - Alibaba (BABA) reported earnings of $0.66 per share, missing estimates by 5 cents, but shares rose +3% due to stronger AI cloud sales, with a year-to-date increase of over +90% [9] - Best Buy (BBY) exceeded earnings expectations with $1.40 per share, leading to modest share gains, while Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) surpassed expectations by over +10% with earnings of $2.36 per share, resulting in an +18% increase in shares [10] - Kohl's (KSS) reported a positive surprise of +152% with earnings of +$0.10 per share, leading to a +26% increase in early trading [11] - Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) beat earnings expectations with $2.78 per share, but shares fell due to the announcement of Foot Locker closures [12]