Meta Platforms (META) ended 2025 on a high note. The business is evolving beyond social media by investing extensively in artificial intelligence (AI), infrastructure, and new products that will strengthen its competitive position for years to come. With strong user growth, improving ad performance, and ambitious AI plans taking shape, is it a good time to buy META stock now? www.barchart.com Meta Platforms' Core Business Is Going Strong Meta Platforms' core advertising business, via its Family of Apps ...

In 2007, Apple launched the first iPhone, a device that eventually became the model for other smartphones. The iPhone wasn't the first smartphone, but it completely changed the industry and made Apple immensely successful. It remains its largest source of sales to this day. Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) is trying to pull off something similar. The company believes it has identified how most people will interact with artificial intelligence (AI) in their day-to-day lives within a few years. And if Meta Plat ...

Core Insights - Meta has invested over $70 billion in its VR and metaverse initiatives since 2020, but the growth of the industry has been slower than anticipated, leading to recent cuts in its Reality Labs division [1][2] - The company has acknowledged that its vision for Horizon and VR was overly ambitious, resulting in a need to scale back on several VR products, including virtual workplace and fitness applications [2][3] - Despite the setbacks, Meta remains optimistic about the future of VR, claiming to invest more in content than any competitor [2][3] Investment Strategy - Meta's CTO stated that the current investment exceeds the growth potential of the VR ecosystem, indicating a significant loss and a need for emotional acknowledgment of the situation [2][5] - The company continues to view itself as a net positive investor in the VR ecosystem, even after scaling back its ambitions [3][4] - There is a belief that the challenges faced in VR do not necessarily detract from the potential growth in wearables, as both can be pursued simultaneously [3][4] Future Outlook - The CTO has previously indicated that 2025 will be a critical year for the metaverse, determining whether Meta's efforts will be seen as visionary or a misadventure [4] - There is a cautious tone regarding future investments, with the company emphasizing the need for its investment levels to align with actual growth [5]

Core Insights - Meta Platforms is exploring growth opportunities through hardware, specifically AI glasses, but the Reality Labs segment is financially burdensome, reporting an operating loss of over $6 billion in Q4 and cumulative losses exceeding $80 billion since 2020 [1][7]. Digital Advertising and Revenue Growth - Meta's digital ad business, which constitutes nearly all of its revenue, is performing well, with expectations to further monetize Threads and WhatsApp, including expanding ads on Threads and introducing paid messaging in WhatsApp, which is currently generating an annual revenue run rate of over $2 billion [3]. Instagram Reels and Engagement - Instagram Reels is gaining traction, with total watch time increasing by 30% year-over-year in the U.S. in Q4, and the company plans to enhance engagement through additional language support for video dubbing [2]. Financial Projections and Expenses - For 2026, Meta anticipates total expenses between $162 billion and $169 billion, a 42% increase from the previous year, with capital expenditures expected to rise significantly to between $115 billion and $135 billion [8][9]. Stock Performance and Analyst Outlook - Following positive Q4 earnings, several analysts have raised their price targets for META stock, with Bank of America increasing its target from $810 to $885 and Jefferies projecting a rise to $1,000 [11][12]. Profitability Challenges - Despite revenue growth of over 20% in the past two years, Meta's profitability remains under pressure, with 2026 per-share earnings expected to be similar to 2025 [13]. Future Expectations - The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple for META stock is 24, which is considered reasonable given the company's growth potential, with expectations for improved profitability in 2027 as Reality Labs losses are projected to narrow [14].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for three AI stocks to perform exceptionally well in 2026, driven by ongoing demand for AI technologies and specific company advancements. Group 1: Nvidia - Nvidia is predicted to be the safest and potentially the biggest winner among AI stocks due to the rise of agentic AI adoption, which is expected to significantly boost demand for its products [3][4]. - The launch of the Rubin GPU platform, which could reduce inference costs by 10x and require four times fewer GPUs for training, is anticipated to create substantial demand [6][7]. - Nvidia's growth bottleneck is expected to ease as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company ramps up its advanced packaging capacity, with Nvidia securing approximately 60% of this capacity [7]. Group 2: Broadcom - Broadcom is identified as the second-best positioned AI chipmaker, benefiting from the trend of hyperscalers seeking to build custom AI chips, holding an estimated 60% market share in the AI server ASIC market [8][10]. - The transition of data centers to million-GPU clusters is expected to drive significant sales growth for Broadcom's networking products, particularly the Tomahawk 6 switches [10]. - Broadcom has a substantial $73 billion AI-related backlog, which is projected to translate into strong revenue and earnings growth in 2026 [11]. Group 3: Meta Platforms - Meta Platforms has shown robust advertising revenue growth, with a 24% year-over-year increase in Q4, driven by improvements in ad ranking models [12][13]. - The company is focusing on the AI smart glasses market, where sales have more than tripled in 2025, positioning itself as a leader in this growing segment [15]. - Although the shift in investment focus towards AI glasses may not yield immediate bottom-line improvements in 2026, it is expected to provide a catalyst for stock performance in the future [16].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **China Equity Strategy**: The 2026 JPM China Opportunity Forum highlighted a constructive outlook on China equities, emphasizing thematic trades such as leading exporters, beneficiaries of AI infrastructure capital expenditure, anti-involution strategies, K-shaped consumption recovery, and property market upside optionality [2][7]. Core Insights - **AI Ecosystem**: The memory and ESS (Energy Storage Systems) sectors are benefiting from global AI capital expenditure demand. Notable trends include a memory up-cycle and rising localization. However, consumer electronics and automotive sectors are facing component cost increases and lower trade-in subsidies year-on-year [6][14]. - **Anti-involution Strategies**: Companies like H World and Atour are shifting to rational pricing strategies to enhance market share. Home appliance brands are focusing on innovation rather than price cuts. The solar industry is also expected to see continued anti-involution efforts [6][31]. - **Consumption Trends**: Leading brands are innovating and optimizing to counteract soft domestic demand, with a focus on overseas growth. The "Liberation Day" in April 2025 is noted as a potential trigger for a future recovery in consumer confidence [6][29]. - **Healthcare Sector**: Drug innovation is a key growth driver for pharmaceutical companies, with a focus on launching new drugs and expanding into overseas markets. Healthcare service providers are gradually recovering, aided by technology upgrades [35][38]. - **Humanoid Robots**: China leads in global humanoid robot shipments, driven by government orders. The sector faces challenges in commercialization and scalability, but industrial applications are expected to show strong potential [40][41]. Important Data Points - **Smartphone Market**: Global smartphone shipments are expected to decline by 0.9% in 2026, with iPhones projected to outperform Android devices. JPM forecasts iPhone EMS builds at 251 million units for 2025, a 6% year-on-year increase [14][15]. - **Automotive Sales**: A slow start for passenger vehicle sales in 2026 is anticipated, with a forecasted decline of 24-29% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2026 [15]. - **Energy Storage Systems**: Global ESS battery shipments are projected to grow over 40% to approximately 900 GWh in 2026, driven by policy momentum in China and strong orders from Europe [19]. - **Semiconductor Market**: The semiconductor industry is expected to see divergent dynamics, with consumer electronics facing softness while memory and foundry segments show strength. Average DRAM pricing is forecasted to increase by approximately 60% year-on-year in 2026 [20][21]. Company-Specific Insights - **Top Picks**: J.P. Morgan's preferred companies include Zhongji Innolight, NAURA, and CATL, among others, with various ratings and market caps provided [8][10][11][13]. - **Healthcare Innovations**: Companies like Hansoh are targeting over 80% of revenue from innovative medicines by FY25, with a robust pipeline in oncology and diabetes [35][37]. Additional Considerations - **Cost Management**: Companies are overcoming upward cost pressures through process optimization and effective cost pass-through strategies in export markets [34]. - **Global Expansion**: Chinese brands are increasingly building capacity and expanding distribution in emerging markets, with notable investments in ASEAN production bases [33]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current landscape and future outlook for various sectors within the Chinese market.

Investment Themes - The world needs to invest trillions of dollars in AI infrastructure and lower-carbon energy sources, alongside addressing the retirement-income gap due to an aging population [1][2] Brookfield Corporation - Brookfield Corporation is positioned at the intersection of AI infrastructure, wealth products, and real estate recovery, launching its first AI infrastructure fund targeting $100 billion in assets [4][5] - The company anticipates 25% annual earnings growth over the next five years, with a projected $7 trillion investment needed in AI infrastructure over the next decade [5] Kinder Morgan - Kinder Morgan operates the largest natural gas infrastructure platform in the U.S., transporting 40% of the country's gas production, and is well-positioned to meet the growing demand for gas [7][8] - The company expects gas demand to rise by 28 billion cubic feet per day by 2030, with $10 billion in new capital projects planned to enhance its growth outlook [8] Meta Platforms - Meta Platforms is investing heavily in AI, aiming to build personal superintelligence and has launched several AI products, including a popular AI chatbot and AI glasses [9][11] - The company is in the early stages of its AI potential, with significant upside expected for existing apps and new products [12] NextEra Energy - NextEra Energy is a leader in clean energy infrastructure, partnering with AI companies for power supplies and estimating investments of $295 billion to $325 billion in clean power and data centers through 2032 [12][14] Realty Income - Realty Income is a major REIT focusing on income-generating properties, benefiting from the $50 trillion need for U.S. retirement investment and the $14 trillion in corporate real estate [15][17] - The REIT aims to unlock real estate value through sale-leaseback transactions to support its high-yielding monthly dividend [17] Prologis - Prologis focuses on industrial real estate and is leveraging its expertise in energy to develop data centers, with a power pipeline of up to 5.7 gigawatts [18][19] - The company has strong momentum in logistics and digital infrastructure, signing a record 228 million square feet of leases last year, which is expected to drive earnings and dividend growth [19]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: The report centers on the **China Technology and Communications** sector, with a specific emphasis on AI opportunities in computing, networking, edges, and agents [1][30]. - **Market Outlook**: Despite three years of outperformance compared to MSCI China, there are high expectations and macro/sector risks anticipated for 2026 [1]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Valuation Trends**: H shares are preferred over A shares, with H shares trading 0.5 standard deviations above the 10-year historical forward P/E averages, while A shares are trading above 2 standard deviations [1][30]. - **AI Opportunities**: The report emphasizes embracing AI opportunities across various sectors, particularly in computing and networking, with localization in China being a significant factor [1]. - **Risks Identified**: Key risks include upstream supply issues, material cost increases, and downstream project delivery challenges [1]. - **Stock Recommendations**: - **Hardware/Components**: Luxshare, DSBJ, Lens Tech, Conant, TCL are preferred. - **Semiconductors**: Montage is highlighted. - **Software**: Kingdee is favored. - **Communication Infrastructure**: Eoptolink and TFC are recommended [1][2]. Market Projections - **Smartphone Shipments**: A forecasted decline of 5% YoY for global and China smartphone shipments in 2026, with an increase in average selling price (ASP) by 7% and 5% respectively [1]. - **Foldable Smartphones**: Anticipated shipments of foldable smartphones are projected to reach 20 million in 2025, 29 million in 2026, and 45 million in 2027, driven by the foldable iPhone [1]. - **Camera Lens Shipments**: Expected to reach 4.4 billion units in 2025, with a slight decline to 4.2 billion in 2026, and back to 4.4 billion in 2027 [1]. - **AI Glasses**: Global shipments are expected to reach 15 million in 2026, representing a 123% YoY increase [1]. - **AI-PCB Demand**: Total demand for AI-PCB is projected to be RMB 96 billion (US$ 13 billion) in 2026, with a growth rate of 101% YoY [1]. - **Optical Transceiver Market**: Expected to reach US$ 37.4 billion in 2026, with significant shipment increases [1]. Subsector Preferences - **Sector Performance**: Semiconductor sector is expected to lag behind hardware and communication infrastructure, with a projected earnings growth of 52% YoY for semiconductors in 2026 [23]. - **Investment Strategy**: Preference for semiconductor stocks, followed by communication and hardware, with IT services and software being the least favored [1][30]. Additional Insights - **Foreign Investment Trends**: Increased foreign investment in A-share tech names, with a notable rise in holdings in the overall A-share technology sector [13]. - **IPO Activity**: Anticipation of several IPOs in 1H26, which could provide quality tech names for investors [1][30]. - **Market Volatility**: Expected volatility in 1H26 due to high expectations for AI and potential market corrections [30]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the China Technology and Communications sector's outlook for 2026.

Core Insights - Meta Platforms' CEO Mark Zuckerberg has announced a new initiative called Meta Compute, which aims to enhance the company's long-term strategy in artificial intelligence (AI) [3][4] - The initiative highlights Meta's commitment to becoming a dominant player in AI and emphasizes the importance of data center expansion [5][8] Data Center Expansion - Meta plans to build "tens of gigawatts this decade, and hundreds of gigawatts or more over time" in data center capacity, which is significant as one gigawatt can power 750,000 homes [5] - By increasing its data center capacity, Meta aims to secure independence and data sovereignty, allowing for better control over AI monetization and utilization [6] Competitive Positioning - Meta's investment in data centers is expected to exceed $100 billion in capital expenditures by 2026, compared to ByteDance's planned investment of $23 billion, strengthening Meta's position in AI infrastructure [7] - This strategic move could enhance Meta's content recommendation and user engagement in the digital advertising space, potentially increasing its market share [7][8] Long-term Vision - The initiative reflects Meta's long-term vision, including the development of AI glasses, which Zuckerberg suggests could eventually surpass smartphones as the ideal form factor for AI [6][7] - The Meta Compute initiative may involve collaboration with government entities to support advanced AI workloads, reinforcing Meta's competitive positioning in the AI landscape [8]

Group 1 - The company has implemented staff cuts affecting 10% of its workforce as part of a strategic shift in spending towards AI glasses and other wearable products [1]