Core Insights - Nvidia has received approval to export H200 AI chips to China, with the U.S. government imposing a 25% fee on sales, an increase from the previously set 15% [2][3] - The H200 chip is significantly more powerful than the H20 model, which Nvidia had previously been limited to exporting [3] - Analysts are cautiously optimistic about the potential revenue impact, estimating an annual increase of $25 to $30 billion and an EPS impact of $0.60 to $0.70 [4] Revenue Impact - Nvidia reported export control impacts of approximately $4.6 billion in Q1 and $4 billion in Q2, with China historically accounting for 20-25% of its data center revenue [3] - Wells Fargo maintains an overweight rating on Nvidia, with a price target of $265, significantly above the current trading price of $184 [5] Market Reactions - Analysts from William Blair believe the new chip approvals could positively influence Nvidia's fiscal 2027 revenue expectations, but they are awaiting evidence of actual orders from China before adjusting forecasts [8] - Concerns remain regarding the approval process for Chinese customers and the management of the 25% revenue fee to the U.S. government [6] Competitive Landscape - AMD and Intel are also expected to benefit from the new export policies, with AMD already holding a license for its MI308X chip [7] - AMD's revenue guidance was previously cut by about $700 million for Q2 and $1.5 billion for the year due to export restrictions [7]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several companies including NVIDIA, AMD, and TSMC, indicating a positive outlook for these firms in the technology sector [33]. Core Insights - The resumption of NVIDIA's H20 GPU sales to China is expected to positively impact the APAC technology supply chain, particularly benefiting companies like Inventec and Wistron [2][4]. - AMD's MI308X license applications for export to China are moving forward, which could lead to a recovery in revenue after significant write-downs [3]. - The overall demand for NVIDIA's RTX GPU series may moderate due to the increased availability of H20 GPUs, suggesting a shift in market dynamics [4][6]. Summary by Sections NVIDIA and AMD Developments - NVIDIA is filing applications to resume sales of the H20 GPU, with government assurances for license approval, and has introduced a compliant RTX PRO GPU [2]. - AMD's license applications for MI308X are under review, with expectations of resuming shipments as approvals are granted, despite prior inventory write-downs of approximately US$800 million [3]. APAC Technology Supply Chain - Inventec is positioned to benefit significantly from the H20 server rack business, with 10% of shipments to China potentially generating over 20% of sales due to higher average selling prices (ASPs) [4]. - Other ODMs like Wistron and Hon Hai are also expected to gain from the H20 export relief, enhancing their revenue prospects [4]. Semiconductor and HBM Market - The relaxation of export controls on NVIDIA's AI GPUs is anticipated to benefit upstream suppliers like TSMC and KYEC, with projections of significant growth in CoWoS demand [8]. - Samsung is expected to be the main beneficiary in the HBM market due to the resumption of H20 sales, with forecasts indicating substantial quarter-over-quarter growth in HBM bit demand [10]. Price Dynamics and Market Trends - The report notes a potential moderation in RTX GPU sales due to cannibalization from H20, with expectations of price adjustments in the secondary market [6]. - The demand for HBM is projected to surge with the resumption of H20 shipments, despite ongoing localization efforts in China [9].