参与单位包括：明世伙伴基金管理（珠海）有限公司、中信证券股份有限公司、工银安盛资产管理有限 公司、上海聂丰私募基金管理有限公司、Amber Capital、山东驼铃私募基金管理有限公司、江苏瑞华创 业投资管理有限公司、上海粒子跃动私募基金管理有限公司、信达证券股份有限公司、淳厚基金管理有 限公司、深圳同盈股权投资基金管理有限公司、杭州硕和资产管理有限公司。 云南临沧鑫圆锗业股份有限公司（以下简称"云南锗业"）于2026年1月14日在昆明市呈贡新区马金铺电 力装备园公司生产基地接待了机构调研。本次调研活动类别为特定对象调研，吸引了明世伙伴基金、中 信证券、工银安盛资产等12家机构参与。公司副总经理、董事会秘书金洪国及证券事务代表张鑫昌负责 接待并与机构投资者进行交流。 调研基本情况 核心调研要点解析 出口管制影响：合规申请许可，部分订单已获批出口 针对出口管制对公司的影响，云南锗业表示，在涉及出口管制公告相关类别的产品时，公司已按照国家 法律法规及相关规定申请办理出口许可，且部分订单按规定报批后已获得许可并出口。公司境外销售收 入情况可参阅各年度及半年度报告。 磷化铟市场：价格平稳需求增长，海内外市场双拓展 公 ...

美国众议院通过法案，旨在堵住现行美国出口管制体系中的关键漏洞 , 即外国对手实体通过云计 算服务，从境外远程调用受控的美国高端技术产品，尤其是 AI芯片。 2026 年 1 月 12 日，美国众议院通过了《远程访问安全法案（Remote Access Security Act, H.R.2683），这是一项两党支持、旨在现代化美国出口管制体系的立法。 这部得到两党支持的法案以 369票对22票的压倒多数获得通过。法案对现有的《出口管制改革法 案》(The Export Control Reform Act)进行更新，扩大美国出口管控制度的范围。 | Shown Here: Introduced in House (04/07/2025) | | --- | | 119TH CONGRESS | | IST SESSION H. R. 2683 | | To provide for control of remote access of items under the Export Control Reform Act of 2018. | | IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES | ...

Core Insights - The price of germanium has surged significantly, with projections indicating that the average price for 2025 will reach 15,021.47 CNY/kg and 2,927.82 USD/kg, marking a substantial increase from previous years [1][4][5] - Germanium is considered a strategic metal due to its limited global distribution and critical applications in sectors such as semiconductors and aerospace [2][3] - China's recent export controls and stockpiling initiatives have contributed to the rising prices of germanium, leading to a significant reduction in domestic inventories and increasing shortages overseas [3][4] Price Trends - The average price of germanium in 2024 and 2025 is projected to be 13,610.77 CNY/kg and 15,021.47 CNY/kg, respectively, with export prices reaching 2,065.79 USD/kg and 2,927.82 USD/kg [4][5] - Historical data shows that the peak average price for germanium was 12,174.76 CNY/kg in 2014, indicating that current prices are significantly higher than past peaks [4][5] Demand Dynamics - Despite the high prices, the demand for germanium in traditional sectors such as infrared and fiber optics is declining, raising concerns about the sustainability of current price levels [1][7][8] - The commercial space industry and semiconductor sectors are expected to drive some demand, but the actual growth in consumption remains limited [6][7] - The introduction of alternative materials, such as sulfur-based glass in the infrared market, is further reducing the demand for germanium [8][12] Industry Expansion - The domestic production of germanium is expected to increase significantly, with estimates suggesting a rise to 225 tons in 2025, driven by new production capacities coming online [10][11] - Internationally, other regions are also ramping up germanium production in response to China's export controls, which may lead to an oversupply situation [11] Market Outlook - The current high prices of germanium are not supported by strong demand, leading to a potential "price bubble" scenario where supply may outstrip demand [9][12] - If prices do not stabilize, downstream industries may accelerate their search for alternative materials, which could further diminish the market for germanium [12][13]

Group 1: Copper - The LME copper price increased by 1.94% to $12,702.0 per ton, while Shanghai copper rose by 3.23% to 101,400 yuan per ton [1] - Domestic copper inventory increased by 6.29% week-on-week, marking six consecutive weeks of accumulation, with total inventory up by 168,100 tons year-on-year [1][12] - The operating rate of the yellow copper rod industry decreased by 0.61% to 46.98%, while the enameled wire industry saw a decline of 0.66% in operating rate to 74.87% [1][12] Group 2: Aluminum - The LME aluminum price rose by 2.22% to $3,088.00 per ton, and Shanghai aluminum increased by 6.13% to 24,300 yuan per ton [2][13] - The operating rate of domestic aluminum processing leading enterprises increased by 0.2% to 60.1%, indicating a mixed performance across different aluminum processing sectors [2][13] - The total production capacity of metallurgical-grade alumina reached 110.32 million tons per year, with an operating rate of 80.51% [2][13] Group 3: Gold - COMEX gold price increased by 3.36% to $4,487.9 per ounce, with SPDR gold holdings rising by 2 tons to 1,067.13 tons [3][14] - Geopolitical risks, including U.S. military actions in Venezuela and unrest in Iran, have contributed to a strong and volatile market for gold [3][14] Group 4: Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide increased by 2.90%, with November exports of rare earth permanent magnets rising by 12% month-on-month and 28% year-on-year, reaching a historical high for the month [4][36] - The expectation of more relaxed export policies and ongoing supply constraints are likely to support future demand and price increases in the rare earth sector [4][36] Group 5: Lithium - The average price of lithium carbonate increased by 11.5% to 131,800 yuan per ton, while lithium hydroxide rose by 10.9% to 126,900 yuan per ton [4][60] - Total lithium carbonate production reached 22,500 tons, with a slight increase of 0.01 million tons week-on-week [4][60] Group 6: Cobalt - The price of cobalt in the Jiangxi market rose by 1.1% to 460,000 yuan per ton, with cobalt intermediate prices also showing slight increases [5][63] - The overall cobalt market remains strong, with supply tightness expected to continue, supporting price stability [5][63] Group 7: Nickel - LME nickel price increased by 1.8% to $17,100 per ton, while Shanghai nickel rose by 4.3% to 138,000 yuan per ton [5][64] - Nickel market sentiment turned optimistic due to potential tightening of nickel ore quotas in Indonesia, leading to price increases [5][64]

共同社1月10日报道，相关人士表示，销售稀土的中国国有企业已通知一部分日本企业不再签订新的合 同。 8日，在例行新闻发布会上，商务部发言人何亚东表示，高市早苗首相涉台错误言论侵害中国主权和领 土完整，公然干涉中国内政，对中方发出武力威胁。高市首相上台以来，推进修订"安保三文件"，其侧 近人士发表拥核言论，这是在试图挑战国际社会底线，暴露出高市首相和日本右翼势力的一贯错误主张 和持续推动"再军事化"野心，挑战战后国际秩序，势必损害地区和平稳定，危及世界和平与安全。 何亚东说，中国作为负责任大国，一贯积极履行防扩散国际义务。依法依规针对所有两用物项，禁止对 日本军事用户、军事用途，以及一切参与提升日本军事实力的其他最终用户用途出口，其目的是制 止"再军事化"和拥核企图，完全正当、合理、合法。中方始终致力于维护全球产供链稳定与安全，涉及 民事用途的不会因此受到影响。对于开展正常民用贸易往来的相关方，完全没有必要担心。 本文系观察者网独家稿件，未经授权，不得转载。 据称，中方还在考虑终止现有合同。日媒报道，这是首次确认有日本企业购买稀土被拒。 1月6日，中国商务部宣布，决定加强两用物项对日本出口管制：禁止所有两用物项 ...

来源：热点雷达 日本重稀土（如镝、铽）对华依存度接近100%，主要用于军工（导弹制导、战机引擎）、新能源汽车 电机等核心领域。中方管制直接导致日本库存告急（仅能维持3-6周），若持续一年，日本GDP将萎缩 0.43%，经济损失达2.6万亿日元。日企如丰田、三菱重工已因原料断供被迫减产，半导体生产线面临停 工风险。 产业链连锁反应剧烈 一、日本经济与产业遭多重打击 稀土依赖成为致命软肋 军工领域：日本"藏军于民"模式遭重创。高端武器所需的耐热合金、碳纤维等材料被纳入管制清单，F- 15J战机升级项目停滞，高超音速导弹研发推迟。 民用产业：汽车、电子等行业供应链断裂。电动车电机所需的钕铁硼磁材90%依赖中国，断供后车企产 能暴跌20%以上；半导体用高纯镓、锗断供引发封测企业违约潮。 二、日本反制能力薄弱，暴露战略缺陷 替代方案短期难成 中国对日本实施的军民两用物项出口管制，确实精准打击了日本在稀土、半导体材料等关键领域的产业 命脉，导致其经济与军工发展面临实质性冲击。 经济界强烈不满高市早苗涉台言论引发危机，在野党拟推动内阁不信任案。民众恐慌情绪蔓延，日经指 数单日暴跌556点，社交媒体涌现"要求高市辞职"呼声。 ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 09 日 工业硅：逢高布空思路 多晶硅：悲观情绪较浓 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 Si2605收盘价（元/吨） | T | T-1 -445 | T-5 -380 | T-22 -270 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2605成交量（手） | 8,535 666,115 | 188,729 | 299,914 | 495,446 | | | | Si2605持仓量（手） | | | | | | | | PS2605收盘价（元/吨） | 260,531 53,610 | 15,797 -4,690 | 44,311 -4,280 | 63,588 - | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2605成交量（手） | 39,605 | 19,024 | -3,108 | - | | | | PS2605持仓量（手） | 58,049 | -9,751 | -25,286 | ...

转载请注明央视财经 编辑：令文芳 中国社科院日本研究所助理研究员 孟明铭：中方对日本实施的出口管制措施，对日本造成的影响可能 会体现在以下三个方面。第一是直接影响日本的军事工业，其制造、舰船、导弹等先进装备所需的关键 材料，比如合金和稀土，均被列入了管制清单，包括日本从美国引进的军事装备，也会因依赖中国的稀 土或材料而遭到管制，这将有效阻止日本军工业的发展。第二点是在日本整体经济方面，受管制的稀土 和材料，是日本先进制造业的核心材料，日本在这方面高度依赖中国，若全面限制出口，那么日本的制 造业可能面临供应链断裂的风险，将会遭遇巨大的经济损失和经济衰退风险。第三个层面应该是社会层 面，中方采取的管制措施已经对日本社会民心造成了明显的冲击。日本舆论普遍担忧中日关系的持续恶 化，将对日本经济造成更多不确定性。越来越多的日本经济界人士和有识之士也出来发声，呼吁日本政 府采取有效措施扭转目前的局面。中方的出口管制公告有效精准打击了日本军工业，有力阻止了日 本"再军事化"的进程，是维护国家核心利益和维护地区安全的正义合理之举。 （央视财经《经济信息联播》）日本首相高市早苗近期一系列加速推动军备扩张的举动，不但引发日本 国 ...

新华社北京1月8日电（记者黄韬铭、谢希瑶）商务部新闻发言人何亚东8日在回应有关审查Meta收购人 工智能平台Manus的提问时表示，商务部将会同相关部门对此项收购与出口管制、技术进出口、对外投 资等相关法律法规的一致性开展评估调查。 在商务部当天举行的例行新闻发布会上，何亚东表示，中国政府一贯支持企业依法依规开展互利共赢的 跨国经营与国际技术合作。需要说明的是，企业从事对外投资、技术出口、数据出境、跨境并购等活 动，须符合中国法律法规，履行法定程序。 【纠错】 【责任编辑:谷玥】 ...

Group 1 - The Chinese government expresses a firm commitment to deepen economic and trade relations with Venezuela, regardless of changes in the Venezuelan political landscape [1] - China emphasizes that its economic cooperation with Latin American countries is based on principles of equality and mutual benefit, without seeking spheres of influence or targeting any specific party [1] - The Chinese government aims to collaborate with Latin American nations to address international challenges and promote common development through open and inclusive economic cooperation [1] Group 2 - The Chinese government supports enterprises in conducting cross-border investments and international technology cooperation in accordance with Chinese laws and regulations [2] - Companies engaging in foreign investments, technology exports, data outflows, and cross-border mergers must comply with legal procedures and relevant regulations [2] - The Ministry of Commerce will assess the consistency of Meta's acquisition of Manus with laws regarding export controls and foreign investments [2] Group 3 - The Chinese government is implementing stricter export controls on dual-use items to Japan, aiming to prevent militarization and nuclear ambitions [3] - The Chinese government asserts that it will prohibit exports of dual-use items to military users in Japan, emphasizing the legality and justification of these measures [3] - Civilian trade will not be affected by these export controls, and parties involved in normal civilian trade should not have concerns [3]