Core Viewpoint - AppLovin (NASDAQ: APP) presents a relatively better investment opportunity compared to other AI stocks, despite being slightly overvalued currently [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance and Valuation - The stock price of AppLovin may be above the 50-week moving average, but the 14-week Relative Strength Index (RSI) is only 53.5, indicating potential for growth [1]. - Normalized earnings growth rates could reach 70-80% for FY2025 and 40-50% for FY2026, suggesting a reasonable valuation [1]. - The projected annual revenue growth rate for the next few years is expected to be 20-25%, indicating strong and stable performance [1]. - A conservative estimate suggests a rolling 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of around 42.5, which could lead to a stock price of $510 if normalized earnings reach $12, representing a potential upside of 45% from the current price of $350 [3]. Group 2: Cash Flow and Business Model - AppLovin's revenue model includes a significant portion of recurring revenue based on usage, leading to stable cash flows and attracting long-term investment [3][4]. - The company enjoys a high gross margin of nearly 80% and low capital expenditures, which supports its cash flow [4]. - The leverage-free cash flow profit margin stands at 37%, indicating strong financial health [4]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape and Risks - AppLovin faces competition from major players like Meta and Google, which have enhanced their advertising platforms [5]. - Regulatory risks related to privacy and data policies, such as the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), could impact data targeting efficiency [4]. - The company has been accused of data misuse and deceptive advertising practices, necessitating strict adherence to ethical standards by management to maintain market sentiment [4]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Investment Horizon - Current market sentiment towards AppLovin is positive, and the valuation is not excessively high, making it an attractive investment [5][6]. - The investment in AppLovin may require a longer holding period of three to five years to achieve sustainable returns of 25% or more [6]. - The focus should be on monitoring potential downside risks and actual growth in earnings reports to gauge market sentiment shifts [5].