Ac t i o n | 15 Jan 2026 10:05:29 ET │ 22 pages TSMC (2330.TW) Strong beat; AI demand is real and verified; Prolonged advanced node chip shortage CITI'S TAKE TSMC's results and outlook strongly beat market expectations and its previous guidance with GM/OPM reaching 62%/54% in 4Q25, net profit was NT$505.7bn (up 35% YoY and 12% QoQ), beating our expectation by 10%. Thanks to promising advanced node demand, in particular for AI, TSMC expects its 2026 revenue to be up nearing 30% YoY with long-term CAGR of 25% ...

TTM Technologies Conference Call Summary Company Overview - TTM Technologies is a high-tech technology company focused on advanced interconnect solutions, including PCBs, substrates, and advanced packaging [9][10] - The company aims to increase visibility in the market and has plans for significant growth in the coming years [11] Key Market Insights - TTM is affected by 80% of current megatrends, including AI, defense spending, and automation [9] - The company expects to grow its top line by 5% to 20% annually over the next three years and to double its earnings from 2025 to 2027 [11] Data Center Market - Data center sales accounted for approximately 22% of total sales in the first nine months of 2025, with a 44% increase in Q3 [12] - The data center and networking markets are forecasted to grow by over 30% this year, driven by AI [14] - TTM has strong visibility into customer demand, with a six to nine-month outlook on orders [14] Capacity and Production - TTM has added 25% capacity in its Chinese plants dedicated to AI work, with expansions in Dongguan and Guangzhou [22] - The company plans to invest $200-$300 million over the next two to three years to expand existing facilities rather than building new ones [23] - The Penang facility is part of the "China plus one" strategy but has faced challenges in ramping up capacity due to cultural and operational differences [26][27] Defense Sector - The defense sector represents about 45% of TTM's revenue, with a significant backlog of approximately $1.5 billion [62] - The company is focused on advanced interconnect solutions for radar, surveillance, and communication systems [59][62] - TTM is positioned as a trusted partner for U.S. defense needs, benefiting from stable government budgets and long-term relationships [62] Financial Performance and Projections - TTM is expected to achieve consistent growth and may update its financial targets due to recent performance exceeding previous models [75] - The company is not currently focused on share buybacks but prioritizes expansion and R&D investments [78] M&A Strategy - TTM is open to acquisitions, particularly in the U.S. and Europe, but is not in a rush due to strong organic growth [69] - The company is exploring opportunities to support defense primes and may consider carve-outs from larger companies [73] Market Trends - The medical and industrial instrumentation (MII) market is showing signs of recovery, with a 20% sales increase in 2025 [47] - The automotive market has been challenging, with a decline in sales for three consecutive years [49] - TTM is focusing on high-end applications and automation within these markets, leveraging long-term customer relationships [50] Conclusion - TTM Technologies is strategically positioned for growth in high-tech markets, particularly in data centers and defense, while navigating challenges in other sectors. The company is committed to enhancing its operational capacity and maintaining strong customer relationships to drive future success.

Core Insights - The semiconductor industry has transitioned from a rivalry between Intel and NVIDIA to a collaborative relationship, marked by NVIDIA's $5 billion investment in Intel, signaling a new era of industry alignment [3][4]. Group 1: Investment and Market Dynamics - NVIDIA's investment is not merely a financial lifeline for Intel but a strategic move to ensure the health of the semiconductor industry, fundamentally altering Intel's risk profile [4][5]. - Intel's stock had been trading at a significant discount due to various challenges, including removal from the Dow Jones Industrial Average and a suspension of dividends, leading to a price drop of over 50% from historical highs [4]. Group 2: Strategic Implications - NVIDIA's equity stake in Intel indicates the necessity of Intel's survival for the overall industry, creating a psychological and financial floor for Intel's stock price [5]. - The investment is driven by NVIDIA's need for Intel's advanced packaging capacity, highlighting the importance of manufacturing capabilities in meeting global demand [5][6]. Group 3: Operational Improvements - New leadership at Intel has improved manufacturing yields and focused on operational efficiency, positioning the company as a critical pillar of national infrastructure for the next generation of computing [6].

GlobalFoundries Business Webinar Summary Company Overview - **Company**: GlobalFoundries (NasdaqGS: GFS) - **Focus**: Semiconductor manufacturing, particularly in the context of physical AI applications Key Industry Insights - **Physical AI**: Represents a transformative shift in technology, moving from digital to real-world applications, enabling devices to sense, think, act, and communicate in real-time [5][6] - **Market Opportunity**: The estimated Serviceable Available Market (SAM) for physical AI is projected to be **$18 billion by 2030**, with potential for higher upside as new applications emerge [28][29] Core Themes and Arguments 1. **Evolution of AI**: The transition from connecting millions of devices to enabling tens of billions of devices to interact intelligently with their environments is underway [5][6] 2. **Semiconductor Demand**: The complexity of physical AI workloads will drive increased demand for semiconductors, particularly in areas such as sensing, processing, and communication [9][10] 3. **Technological Differentiation**: GlobalFoundries' diverse technology portfolio, including ultra-low-power solutions and advanced packaging, positions the company well to meet the evolving needs of the semiconductor market [10][11] Product and Technology Highlights - **MIPS Integration**: The acquisition of MIPS enhances GlobalFoundries' capabilities in providing real-time, event-driven computing essential for physical AI applications [15][16] - **Ultra-Low-Power Solutions**: The FDX and FinFET platforms are optimized for power efficiency and performance, making them suitable for IoT and industrial applications [12][18] - **Advanced Packaging**: GlobalFoundries offers a full suite of advanced packaging capabilities, which are critical for integrating multiple technologies and enhancing performance in AI applications [64][66] Market Trends and Customer Engagement - **Automotive Sector**: The semiconductor content in vehicles has surged from **$700-$1,000** to an expected **$1,400** by the end of the decade, driven by the need for advanced features like ADAS [20][19] - **Customer Engagement**: There has been a marked increase in customer engagements, with **400 design wins** in the first three quarters of 2025, 95% of which were sole-sourced [30][31] - **Diverse Customer Base**: The integration of MIPS has expanded GlobalFoundries' customer base to include OEMs and tier-one suppliers, enhancing dialogue and service offerings [43][44] Strategic Outlook - **Growth Potential**: The company anticipates a **10% CAGR** driven by physical AI, with expectations of capturing a larger market share due to its technology alignment with industry needs [41][38] - **Long-Term Vision**: GlobalFoundries aims to evolve from a pure foundry to a holistic technology solutions provider, integrating foundry services with IP and custom silicon offerings [49][50] Additional Considerations - **Hyperscaler Engagement**: GlobalFoundries is actively engaging with hyperscalers for custom silicon and IP licensing, indicating a shift towards more tailored solutions in the AI space [56][57] - **Future Innovations**: The company is exploring opportunities in emerging technologies like 6G and low Earth orbit satellite infrastructure, which align with its strengths in RF and power solutions [67][68] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the GlobalFoundries Business Webinar, highlighting the company's strategic positioning within the semiconductor industry and its focus on the burgeoning field of physical AI.

Amkor Technology Conference Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Amkor Technology (NasdaqGS:AMKR) - **Event**: UBS Tech Conference - **Date**: December 02, 2025 - **Key Personnel**: Kevin Engel (incoming CEO), Megan Faust (CFO) Core Industry Insights Strategic Pillars 1. **Technology Leadership**: Focus on advanced packaging and collaboration with customers to meet their needs [2][4] 2. **Geographical Footprint**: Expansion in Korea and future plans in the U.S. to enhance supply chain resiliency [3][5] 3. **Market Trends**: Emphasis on growth in AI and high-performance computing [3][4] AI and High-Performance Computing - Amkor is seeing increased interest in its 2.5D platform, with over five customers now engaged in production [5][6] - The company is ramping up its high-density fan-out (HDFO) products, with expectations for significant growth in the data center market by 2026 [9][10] - The compute segment has been growing at a 12% CAGR over the past five years, nearly double the overall growth rate of Amkor [10] Financial Performance and Projections - The compute segment currently accounts for approximately 20% of total sales, driven by advanced packaging and testing [11][12] - Amkor anticipates a 30% margin flow-through as high-performance computing scales up, with expectations for improved profitability by 2026 [15][16] - The company has invested heavily in preparation for 2026, which has impacted margins in the short term but is expected to yield positive results in the future [10][15] Expansion Plans Arizona Facility - Amkor is investing $7 billion in a multi-phase expansion in Arizona, with the first phase expected to be completed by mid-2027 and production starting in 2028 [25][29] - The facility will focus on high-volume, low-mix production to manage costs and improve profitability [31] Testing Capabilities - Expansion of testing capabilities in Korea is underway, with a new building focused on test at scale expected to be operational by 2027 [21][23] - Customers are increasingly seeking integrated testing and packaging solutions, which presents growth opportunities [20] Market Dynamics Q4 2025 Guidance - Amkor expects an 8% decline in Q4 compared to Q3, aligning with seasonal trends [39] - The company remains optimistic about Q1 2026 performance, particularly in computing and automotive sectors [40][41] 2026 Market Outlook - Positive growth is anticipated in the computing segment, driven by AI and data center demands, while automotive and industrial sectors are expected to recover slowly [41][42] - Margins are projected to improve as operational efficiencies are realized and mainstream business recovers [46] Additional Considerations - Amkor is evaluating various scenarios for its expansion strategy, including potential early setup of facilities to reduce lead times [26] - The partnership with TSMC is strong, with collaborative opportunities expected to enhance Amkor's capacity and market position [27][28] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the conference, highlighting Amkor's strategic direction, market positioning, and future growth prospects.

Q3 2025 Financial Performance - SkyWater achieved record Q3 2025 revenues of $150.7 million, exceeding the high end of the guidance range by over $9 million[6] - Legacy SkyWater's ATS (Advanced Technology Services) development revenue reached $54.2 million, a 3% increase compared to Q2 2025, but a 4% decrease year-over-year[57] - SkyWater Texas generated $86.6 million in wafer services revenue in Q3 2025, marking its first quarter contribution post-acquisition[57] - The company's GAAP gross margin was 24.0%, a 550 basis point increase from Q2 2025's 18.5%[60] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 was $25.8 million, significantly higher than forecast, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 17.1%[63] Business Highlights and Future Outlook - SkyWater anticipates strong growth in quantum computing customer revenues, expecting to exceed 30% in 2025[11, 14] - Advanced Packaging revenues are starting to ramp in Florida, with tool installations scheduled for completion in early 2026[11] - Q4 2025 revenue is projected to be in the range of $155 million to $165 million, including $17 million - $18 million in Tools revenue[54] - SkyWater Texas revenue for Q4 2025 is expected to be between $84 million and $88 million, reflecting continued higher levels of WIP (work-in-process) during the post-acquisition phase[54] - The company expects a stronger gross margin profile for Q4 2025 compared to the preliminary outlook provided in August[54]

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Core Insights - The company reported better-than-expected results, beating both top and bottom lines [1] - Advanced packaging revenue reached a record high, contributing to a significant 31% sequential growth [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved record revenue in advanced packaging, indicating strong demand and operational efficiency [1] - Sequential growth of 31% highlights robust performance compared to previous quarters [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Amkor reported revenue of $1,990 million for Q3 2025, representing a 31% sequential increase and a 7% year-on-year growth [5][15] - Gross profit was $284 million with a gross margin of 14.3%, up 230 basis points sequentially [15] - Net income more than doubled to $127 million, resulting in an EPS of $0.51 for the quarter [16][21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Communications revenue increased 67% sequentially and 5% year-on-year, driven by strong demand from iOS and Android products [6][8] - Computing revenue rose 12% sequentially and 23% year-on-year, with expectations of continued growth despite a modest sequential decline anticipated in Q4 [7][8] - Automotive and Industrial revenue grew 5% sequentially and 9% year-on-year, with expectations for stable sequential revenue in Q4 and around 20% year-on-year growth [8][9] - Consumer revenue increased 5% sequentially but decreased 5% year-on-year, with further declines expected in Q4 [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The semiconductor industry is evolving rapidly due to AI proliferation, driving market expansion and increased manufacturing requirements [10] - Amkor's geographic footprint expansion includes facilities in Asia, Europe, and the U.S., enhancing its competitive position in the OSAT industry [12][13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Amkor is focused on three strategic pillars: investing in technology leadership, building supply chain resilience, and deepening partnerships with key customers [10] - A significant investment of $7 billion is planned for a new Advanced Packaging and Test Campus in Arizona, expected to create up to 3,000 jobs and support U.S. semiconductor manufacturing [11][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the demand for Advanced Packaging driven by AI and high-performance computing [7][10] - The company anticipates a return to a more normal seasonal pattern in Q4, with continued year-on-year growth in both Advanced and Mainstream portfolios [10][21] Other Important Information - The company plans to host an Investor Day in mid-2026 to share long-term financial targets and strategic insights [19][90] - Amkor has taken steps to enhance liquidity, including replacing a $600 million revolver with a $1 billion U.S.-based revolver [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on the gross margin guidance for Q4? - Management indicated that higher material content is impacting margins, with a projected decline in gross margin without the asset sale benefit [26][27] Question: What is the outlook for the Communications segment? - Management expects a slight decline in Q4 due to tapering in the iOS ecosystem, but continued strength in Android is anticipated [28][29] Question: What are the growth prospects for the automotive and industrial segment? - Management expects continued growth in Advanced Packaging for automotive applications, particularly in ADAS technology [46][48] Question: How is the investment in Arizona expected to impact future growth? - The increased investment reflects heightened demand for U.S. manufacturing and advanced packaging capabilities [42][68] Question: What are the key drivers of growth in the computing segment? - Broad-based strength across PCs, networking, and data center products is expected to continue, driven by AI proliferation [83][85]

Core Insights - The global semiconductor market is projected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting a total market value of $717 billion by 2025, driven by various segments including memory and GPGPU chips [9][10]. Market Growth Projections - The total world semiconductor market is expected to reach $697.184 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.2% from 2024 [5]. - The Americas will see a substantial increase, with projections of $215.309 billion in 2025, marking a 15.4% growth [5]. - The Asia Pacific region is anticipated to grow to $376.273 billion by 2025, with a growth rate of 10.4% [5]. Segment Analysis - The memory market is expected to grow by 20.5% to reach $196.3 billion, with NAND flash and DRAM segments projected at $75.5 billion and $115.6 billion respectively [9]. - GPGPU chips are forecasted to grow by 27%, reaching $51 billion, with HBM expected to increase to $21 billion [9]. - Integrated circuits will dominate the market, projected to reach $600.069 billion in 2025, with a growth rate of 12.3% [5]. Foundry Market Insights - The global foundry market is expected to grow approximately 20%, reaching $170 billion, with TSMC continuing to lead the market [10][13]. - Advanced packaging is projected to grow at a rate of 11%, reaching $69.5 billion by 2029 [14]. Equipment and Material Market - The semiconductor manufacturing equipment market is expected to exceed $1 trillion by 2027, with significant growth in wafer fabrication equipment [19][20]. - The semiconductor materials market is projected to reach $67.7 billion by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.52% [25]. Regional Developments - China is expected to see a significant increase in 300mm wafer fabs, growing from 29 to 71 by 2027, indicating a strong focus on expanding semiconductor manufacturing capabilities [26]. - TSMC plans to build multiple new fabs globally, including in the U.S., Japan, and Europe, to enhance its production capacity [32][31]. Advanced Packaging and Technology - Advanced packaging technologies, including 2.5D and 3D packaging, are gaining traction, with significant investments in new facilities and technologies [41][54]. - The focus on AI and high-performance computing is driving the demand for advanced packaging solutions, with companies like TSMC and ASE leading the charge [54][41].