Amazon's stock underperformed the market in 2025.Amazon (AMZN +0.38%) has had a fairly disappointing 2025 so far. The stock has risen a mere 6% for the year, lagging the S&P 500 (^GSPC 0.09%), which is up about 16% for the year. That level of underperformance is disappointing for shareholders, but it sets the stage for an exciting 2026.I think that Amazon will come roaring back in 2026, mainly on the back of its strong cloud computing business and advertising services. If its commerce divisions can play a p ...

Core Viewpoint - Amazon's stock has underperformed in 2025 compared to the S&P 500, raising questions about its future potential and whether it should be prioritized by investors as the year ends [1][2]. E-commerce Performance - Amazon's e-commerce segment experienced a 10% year-over-year growth in Q3, marking one of its best quarters in a long time [5]. - Third-party seller services also rose by 12%, indicating strong performance in this area as well [5]. Valuation Concerns - Amazon's stock has been trading at a premium valuation, averaging around 30 times forward earnings, which is considered high given its growth rates around 10% [6][8]. - The combination of high valuation and moderate growth has limited the stock's potential [8]. Profit Drivers - The majority of Amazon's profits come from its other business units, particularly Amazon Web Services (AWS) and advertising services [9]. - AWS revenue grew by 20% in Q3, driven by increased demand for cloud computing and AI workloads [10]. - Although AWS accounted for only 18% of total sales in Q3, it contributed 66% of operating income, highlighting its profitability [11]. Advertising Growth - Amazon's advertising services grew revenue at an impressive 24% in Q3, leveraging consumer data from its e-commerce platform [13]. - High margins in advertising are expected to enhance overall profitability, similar to trends seen in other advertising-focused companies [14]. Future Outlook - The fastest-growing segments, AWS and advertising, are also the highest-margin ones, suggesting that profits will increase at a faster rate than revenue [15]. - The anticipated acceleration in AWS growth and strength in advertising positions Amazon for a strong performance in 2026, making it an attractive investment opportunity [15].

Core Viewpoint - Amazon is close to joining the $3 trillion valuation club, currently holding a market cap of $2.5 trillion, with significant growth potential ahead [2][10]. Company Segments - Amazon's e-commerce platform is well-known, but its most promising segments are Amazon Web Services (AWS) and its advertising division, which are the fastest-growing areas of the company [3][4]. - AWS is benefiting from trends in cloud computing, particularly the rise of artificial intelligence and the shift from on-premise computing to cloud solutions, which is driving its growth [6][7]. Financial Performance - In the third quarter, AWS revenue grew by 20% year-over-year, contributing 66% of Amazon's total operating income, with a strong operating margin of 35% [8]. - The advertising segment, while smaller than AWS, is the fastest-growing, with a 24% year-over-year revenue increase in the third quarter, indicating high profit margins similar to those of AWS [9]. Growth Outlook - Amazon needs approximately 20% growth to reach the $3 trillion market cap, and with its recent acceleration in growth, it could achieve this milestone by the end of next year if spending is managed effectively [10][12]. - The company is projected to be a strong investment choice for 2026, with a high likelihood of reaching the $3 trillion club by 2027 if market conditions remain stable [12].

Core Insights - Amazon.com, Inc is experiencing strong momentum in its retail business and significant growth in its AWS cloud division, driven by increasing demand for AI services [1] - The company is well-positioned for continued growth and improved profitability due to a healthy retail division, accelerating AI demand, and a rapidly expanding advertising business [1] E-commerce and Retail Strength - The core retail business is supported by positive consumer spending sentiment, with strong results from Prime Day and the Prime Big Deal Days indicating ongoing momentum [4] - Despite competition from platforms like Temu, Shein, and TikTok Shop, Amazon remains relatively insulated among incumbent e-commerce platforms [5] AWS and AI Acceleration - Investor concerns about AWS's growth relative to competitors are acknowledged, but optimism remains due to strong underlying demand reflected in backlog growth and increased capital expenditure guidance [6] - AWS's AI business is growing at a triple-digit rate, with a strategic partnership with AI startup Anthropic expected to significantly contribute to revenue growth in 2025 and 2026 [6] High-Margin Business Mix - The rapidly expanding advertising business is identified as a key growth pillar, with a clear path to sustainable margin improvement driven by a shift towards AWS and advertising, optimizations in the fulfillment network, and increased automation [7] Financial Projections - The company is projected to exceed operating income expectations, with third-quarter revenue estimated at $179.37 billion (up from $177.84 billion) and EPS at $1.57 (up from $1.45) [8]

Core Insights - Amazon's market capitalization has exceeded $2.3 trillion, driven by strong performance in e-commerce and Amazon Web Services (AWS), alongside growing optimism in artificial intelligence (AI) [1] - Advertising has emerged as a significant and rapidly growing revenue stream for Amazon, benefiting from its extensive data and the shopping intent of its visitors [2] Advertising Growth - Amazon's advertising services revenue increased by 23% year-over-year to approximately $15.7 billion in Q2 2025, with 22% growth when excluding currency impacts, following an 18% growth in Q1 [4] - Key drivers of this growth include increased shopping activity, enhanced ad tools, the rollout of Prime Video ads, and partnerships in connected-TV (CTV) that expand ad serving capabilities [4] - A notable partnership with Roku has allowed Amazon to reach an estimated 80 million U.S. households, enhancing advertiser reach into high-engagement streaming [4] Strategic Importance of Advertising - Advertising represents high-margin revenue that complements Amazon's extensive retail and media ecosystem, contributing to the company's profit growth [6][8] - The integration of various advertising formats, including retail search, brand placements, and a demand-side platform (DSP), allows Amazon to align advertiser goals with shopper intent effectively [5] - The advertising business is reshaping Amazon's profit engine, providing a long runway for growth alongside AWS [7]

Core Viewpoint - Amazon has the potential to be a top growth stock due to its strong base business and rapidly growing divisions, particularly in advertising and cloud computing [1][2]. Group 1: Business Segments and Growth Drivers - Amazon's North American commerce divisions generated $7.5 billion in operating profit on $100 billion in sales in Q2, indicating that the e-commerce segment is not as profitable as perceived [4]. - The advertising services division is the fastest-growing segment, with a 23% year-over-year revenue increase in Q2, contributing significantly to Amazon's overall operating profits [5]. - Amazon Web Services (AWS) reported a 33% operating margin, benefiting from the AI arms race as clients rent computing resources for AI model training, despite a decrease from Q1's 39% margin due to increased spending on capacity [7]. Group 2: Market Trends and Projections - The global cloud computing market is projected to grow from $752 billion in 2024 to $2.39 trillion by 2030, indicating strong future demand for AWS [8]. - Amazon's operating profits increased by 31% in Q2, and a conservative growth rate of 20% is projected through 2030, leading to an estimated $210 billion in operating profits by the end of that year, a 172% increase from current levels [9][11]. - If Amazon maintains a valuation of 25 times operating profits, the company could reach a market cap of $5.3 trillion, translating to a stock price of approximately $492 by 2030 [11][12].

Core Insights - Amazon has shown consistent performance in 2025, with ongoing discussions about the impact of artificial intelligence on its financials [1] - The company is focusing on its most profitable segments, which, along with effective cost management, positions it for healthy earnings growth [2] Financial Performance - In Q2, Amazon's net sales increased by 13% year-over-year to $167.7 billion, while operating income rose by 31% to $19.2 billion [4] - AWS revenue grew by 17.5% to $30.9 billion, and advertising services increased by 23% to $15.7 billion, both exceeding overall growth and contributing higher margins [4][5] - The earnings per share improved to $6.55 from $4.18 year-over-year, reflecting enhanced earnings power [5] Business Segments - AWS accounted for approximately 18% of total revenue, while advertising services made up over 9%, indicating a shift towards higher-margin business areas [5] - AWS has an operating margin of about 37%, significantly higher than the overall company's margin of around 11% [6] Future Guidance - For Q3, Amazon anticipates revenue between $174 billion and $179.5 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 10% to 13%, with operating income projected between $15.5 billion and $20.5 billion [7] - The guidance suggests improved operational efficiency compared to two years ago, supporting steady revenue and earnings growth [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - Amazon is positioned to surpass Apple in market capitalization over the next five years due to superior growth rates and profit margins driven by its business segments [1][2]. Business Units and Growth Drivers - Amazon's growth is primarily driven by two business units: Amazon Web Services (AWS) and advertising services, rather than its online store [4]. - AWS generated nearly $31 billion in revenue in Q2, growing 17% year over year, despite facing strong competition from Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud [6][7]. - The advertising services segment is Amazon's fastest-growing area, with revenue increasing by 23% year over year, indicating a strong demand for advertising on its platform [8][9]. Profit Growth and Margins - Amazon's operating income rose 31% year over year in Q2, significantly outpacing Apple's 11% increase in operating income for Q3 FY 2025 [11]. - The growth of high-margin businesses like AWS and advertising services has contributed to rising profit margins for Amazon, positioning it for substantial profit growth over the next five years [10][11]. Market Position and Future Outlook - Analysts expect Amazon's profit growth rate to be much faster than Apple's, with projections indicating a 271% increase in operating income over five years for Amazon compared to a 69% increase for Apple [11]. - This trajectory suggests that Amazon could surpass Apple in size, making it an attractive stock pick for investors [12].

Core Viewpoint - Apple and Amazon, both part of the "Magnificent Seven," have shown strong long-term returns, but current growth rates raise questions about their investment appeal [1] Group 1: Revenue Growth - Both Apple and Amazon have experienced relatively slow revenue growth, with each company growing less than 10% in their most recent quarter [3][5] - Apple's growth issues stem from a lack of innovative products and a lengthening smartphone turnover cycle, leading to less frequent consumer upgrades [6][7] - Amazon's e-commerce segments, while significant, are the slowest-growing parts of its business, impacting overall growth rates [8] Group 2: Profitability - Amazon's high-margin segments, such as AWS and advertising, are growing rapidly, with AWS generating 63% of operating profits despite only accounting for 19% of total sales [10] - In Q1, Amazon's operating profits increased by 20% year over year, significantly outperforming Apple's 6% growth in operating profits [11] - Amazon's profit growth is driven by its strong-performing segments, providing a catalyst for earnings growth that Apple currently lacks [12]

Core Insights - Amazon's e-commerce business is not the primary profit driver, with other segments contributing more significantly to profits [1] - AWS generates the majority of Amazon's operating profits, accounting for 63% of operating profits in Q1 with a 40% operating margin [3][10] - The advertising segment is the fastest-growing part of Amazon's business, with an 18% year-over-year revenue growth in Q1 [6][10] Revenue Breakdown - Online stores generated $57.4 billion in Q1, growing 5% year-over-year, making up 37% of total revenue [2] - Third-party seller services brought in $36.5 billion, with a 6% growth, accounting for 23% of total revenue [2] - AWS revenue was $29.3 billion, growing 17% year-over-year, representing 19% of total revenue [2] - Advertising services generated $13.9 billion, with an 18% growth, making up 9% of total revenue [2] Profit Contribution - AWS and advertising services combined accounted for an estimated 86% of Amazon's operating profits in Q1 [10] - If advertising services are assumed to have a 30% operating margin, they would have generated approximately $4.2 billion in operating profits, contributing about 23% to total operating profits [9][10] Future Outlook - AWS is expected to continue strong growth due to the increasing demand for cloud computing, particularly in AI infrastructure [4][5] - Advertising growth may face challenges during economic downturns, but Q1 figures suggest resilience, and potential shifts in product pricing could lead to increased advertising needs [11][12]