Core Viewpoint - The competition in the lithography machine market is intensifying, with Canon's nanoimprint lithography (NIL) technology emerging as a cost-effective alternative to ASML's extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography, challenging ASML's dominance in the high-end market [1][10]. Group 1: ASML's Dominance - ASML currently holds a 90% market share in the EUV segment, selling machines for $200 million each, with buyers required to sign agreements prohibiting sales to China [4][5]. - Historically, ASML was not a leader in the lithography market, with Japanese companies Canon and Nikon dominating until the early 2000s when ASML pivoted to EUV technology [3][4]. Group 2: Canon's Strategy - Canon has developed NIL technology, which allows for direct imprinting of circuit patterns onto wafers, achieving 14nm line width suitable for 5nm chip production at a significantly lower cost, estimated to be one-tenth of ASML's EUV machines [5][6]. - The NIL technology has a lower energy consumption, reportedly 10% of that of EUV, making it an attractive option for manufacturers looking to reduce costs [6][10]. Group 3: Challenges and Improvements - Canon's NIL technology initially faced challenges with yield rates, which were around 60%, but improvements have raised this to over 90% through better mask materials [7][10]. - Canon is strategically targeting markets such as 3D NAND and CMOS image sensors, where precision requirements are lower, allowing for cost-effective production [7][9]. Group 4: Nikon's Approach - Nikon is not directly competing with ASML in the EUV space but is instead focusing on markets that ASML overlooks, such as the ArF lithography market and advanced packaging technologies [8][9]. - Nikon's return to the ArF market targets 65nm logic chips and CMOS sensors, offering competitive pricing and compatibility with existing facilities [8][9]. Group 5: Global Competition - Other companies globally are also developing alternatives to EUV, with innovations like laser-based X-ray lithography and self-assembling lithography, aiming to reduce costs significantly [10]. - The semiconductor industry is shifting towards a focus on cost-effectiveness rather than solely on advanced technology, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [10][11]. Group 6: Conclusion - The lithography machine market is evolving, with multiple technologies coexisting, and the emphasis on cost-effectiveness may reshape the competitive landscape, challenging ASML's current supremacy [11].