国内晶圆厂扩产边际提速，预计 2025 年下半年下单节奏将改善，带动 国内整体晶圆厂的扩展，并逐步改善对半导体设备的下单需求，预示着 半导体设备市场潜在增长。 半导体设备国产替代加速，尽管过去两年国产化率提升不明显，但海外 设备公司中国大陆收入占比下降至 30%左右，国内半导体设备公司订单 收入增长乐观，国产替代进程加快。 关键半导体设备研发取得突破，尤其是在 EUV 光刻机等受美国出口管制 领域，国内研发端取得进展，推动设备国产化进程，有望打破技术壁垒。 美国 AI 行动计划对半导体设备及零部件实施更严格限制，进一步提升了 国产替代的紧迫性，为国内半导体设备厂商带来发展机遇。 国内 AI 创新推动先进逻辑代工和存储大厂在 2025 年下半年加速扩张， 同时成熟工艺维持较好景气度并保持稳健扩产，为半导体设备市场提供 双重驱动力。 中国头部 Fab 厂成熟工艺稼动率高于海外龙头公司，表明 China for China 需求优先利好国内头部晶圆厂，全球成熟工艺供过于求仅为阶段 性现象，需求有望反转。 半导体设备行业马太效应明显，应把握龙头企业成长确定性，同时关注 国产化率较低且成长空间大的细分领域龙头企业，核心 ...

Core Insights - The emergence of China's first commercial electron beam lithography machine marks a significant advancement in quantum chip research, allowing for greater independence from foreign technology [1][4] - The new technology enables precise circuit patterning without the need for complex optical lenses or masks, showcasing Chinese innovation in the semiconductor industry [1][4] - China's ability to produce chips at 0.6 nanometers demonstrates its competitive edge over foreign counterparts, who are still focused on 1 nanometer technology [3] Group 1: Electron Beam Lithography Machine - The introduction of the "Xizhi" electron beam lithography machine allows for flexible and precise arrangement of quantum bits, overcoming previous limitations imposed by foreign equipment [4] - This technology is positioned as a new path for China, diverging from traditional methods and focusing on quantum and new material chips [4] - The machine's development reflects the dedication and effort of numerous researchers in China, emphasizing the country's capability to achieve top-tier technology [4] Group 2: Huawei's Chip Technology - Huawei's chip stitching technology allows multiple chips to work together, significantly enhancing data processing speeds and addressing performance limitations [3] - The technology enables the combination of lower-process chips to outperform leading foreign chips, such as those from NVIDIA, demonstrating China's innovative approach to chip performance [3] - This advancement challenges the perception of foreign dominance in high-end chip performance and showcases China's growing capabilities in the semiconductor sector [3]

Core Insights - The report addresses key issues regarding the types and principles of core components in lithography machines, the market potential, ASML's industry collaboration model, and the current status and recommendations for domestic lithography machine components [1]. Investment Logic - Lithography machines are essential for chip manufacturing, directly influencing the miniaturization of chips. Key performance indicators include resolution, depth of focus, overlay accuracy, and yield. The global lithography machine market is projected to reach $29.37 billion by 2025, with specific segments such as illumination and optics, light sources, and stages having estimated market sizes of $4.78 billion, $2.86 billion, and $2.15 billion respectively [2]. - The EUV lithography machine market is expected to reach $9.6 billion by 2025, with its core components also showing significant market potential [2]. ASML's Success Factors - ASML's success is attributed to technological innovation and industry collaboration, with key partners including Zeiss, Cymer, Gigaphoton, and TRUMPF. The company has a global supply chain that enhances its competitive edge [3]. Core Components and Market Barriers - The core components of lithography machines, such as light sources, optics, and stages, represent significant barriers to entry in the industry. The complexity of manufacturing these components contributes to the competitive landscape [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic supply chains in China, particularly in light sources, optics, and stages, which are expected to benefit from government support [3]. Key Indicators of Lithography Machines - The report outlines critical indicators for lithography machines, including resolution, overlay accuracy, yield, and depth of focus. The resolution is determined by the Rayleigh formula, and advancements in technology are necessary to improve these metrics [11][14][36]. - The depth of focus is crucial for accommodating wafer surface irregularities, and improvements in immersion lithography technology have enhanced both resolution and depth of focus [34]. Core Component Analysis - The report details the main components of lithography machines, including light sources, illumination systems, optics, and stages. The collaboration among these components is essential for achieving high imaging quality [42][46]. - The light source is identified as a key factor influencing resolution, with various types of light sources being utilized over the years, including mercury lamps and excimer lasers [52][55]. Conclusion - The lithography machine industry is characterized by high technical barriers and significant market potential, particularly in the context of domestic supply chain development in China. The focus on core components and technological advancements will be critical for future growth and competitiveness in the semiconductor manufacturing sector [3][42].

Core Viewpoint - The article provides a comprehensive overview of the semiconductor manufacturing process, emphasizing the intricate division of labor within the industry and the various stages involved in chip production. Group 1: Chip Manufacturing Division - The semiconductor manufacturing process consists of several stages: chip design, wafer preparation, chip manufacturing (front-end), and packaging/testing (back-end) [8][12][14] - The industry operates under different models: Fabless, Foundry, IDM (Integrated Device Manufacturer), and OSAT (Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test) [13][14] Group 2: Wafer Preparation - Wafer preparation involves multiple steps, including deoxidation, purification, single crystal silicon pulling, wafer cutting, chamfering, grinding, polishing, cleaning, and inspection [17][19][32] - The purity of silicon is crucial, with semiconductor-grade silicon requiring a purity of 99.9999999% to 99.99999% [20][19] - The typical wafer sizes include 2-inch, 3-inch, 4-inch, 5-inch, 6-inch, 8-inch, and 12-inch, with 8-inch and 12-inch being the most common [48] Group 3: Chip Manufacturing Process - The chip manufacturing process includes oxidation, photolithography, etching, doping (ion implantation), and thin film deposition [54][60][75][90] - Photolithography involves applying photoresist, exposure, and development to create circuit patterns on the wafer [60][66] - Etching can be either wet or dry, with dry etching currently dominating the industry due to its precision [82] Group 4: Testing and Quality Control - After the manufacturing process, chips undergo testing to ensure quality, including electrical parameter monitoring, wafer aging tests, and probe testing [118] - Chips that fail testing are marked for identification and may be repaired if possible [118]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese chip industry has not only survived the sanctions imposed by the U.S. but has thrived, particularly in the mature chip sector, positioning itself as a global leader in this market. Group 1: Impact of U.S. Sanctions - In 2019, the U.S. placed hundreds of Chinese chip companies, including Huawei and Yangtze Memory Technologies, on an "entity list," prohibiting them from purchasing American technology [3] - Despite the restrictions on EDA software, photolithography machines, and advanced process foundries, Chinese chip companies adopted a "fight to the end" mentality, leading to significant advancements during a period of apparent dormancy [3][9] Group 2: Growth in Chip Production - After failing to procure ASML's EUV photolithography machines, China invested 150 billion yuan in new wafer fabs across major cities, resulting in a monthly production capacity increase of 350,000 wafers for mature chips [4] - China has achieved a global leading position in mature process capacity (28nm and above), with projections indicating a 43% market share by 2027 [6] Group 3: Technological Advancements - Chinese companies have made significant strides in chip design software, with firms like Huada Jiutian and Gekun Electronics successfully developing designs for 14nm and above [10] - In chip manufacturing equipment, Shanghai Micro Electronics and Zhongwei have achieved mass production of 28nm photolithography machines and successfully integrated 5nm etching machines into TSMC's supply chain [10] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Competition - The return of Huawei's Kirin chips has pressured Qualcomm, resulting in a loss of approximately 40 million chips sold in China, translating to hundreds of billions in economic losses for Qualcomm [10] - Yangtze Memory Technologies has captured an 8.1% global market share in NAND flash memory, forcing competitors like Samsung and Micron to reduce prices by 50% [10] - Chinese companies like BYD and Unisoc have significantly impacted the automotive chip market, leading to a 60% profit drop for Infineon and NXP [10] Group 5: Export Growth - China's chip export value has surged from 437.2 billion yuan in 2014 to 1.14 trillion yuan in 2024, marking a significant increase and breaking the 1 trillion yuan barrier for the first time [11] - The U.S. strategy to restrict high-end chips has inadvertently allowed China to dominate the mature chip market, with global analysts noting that U.S. sanctions have only strengthened China's position [11]

Rap idus社长小池淳义在记者会上致辞（7月18日上午，北海道千岁市） 日本新兴半导体企业Rapidus在工厂投产后仅3个月便公开了试制品，生产启动速度是常规情况 下的两倍，为此提供支撑的是曾在日本半导体位居世界第一时代积累丰富经验的资深工程师和供应 商…… 力争实现最尖端半导体国产化的日本Rapidus加快了迈向量产的步伐。工厂投产后仅3个月便公开了试制 品。生产启动速度是常规情况下的两倍，为此提供支撑的是曾在日本半导体位居世界第一时代积累丰富 经验的资深工程师和供应商。为了实现半导体产业的复兴，供应链的力量正在凝聚在一起。 "这是值得纪念的一天"，7月10日在确认了试制的2纳米（1纳米为十亿分之一米）电路线宽半导体的运 行效果后，Rapidus社长小池淳义难掩喜悦之情。 4月中旬，Rapidus建在北海道千岁市的工厂"IIM-1"将晶圆（基板）投放到设备中，使用全球最先进的 技术，3个月完成了试制品，大幅缩短了通常需要半年时间的试制工序。 Rapidus加紧取得成果的原因是担心开发进度越滞后，与海外竞争对手的差距越大，从而在获取客户和 资金筹措方面陷入不利境地。 据说2纳米半导体的生产工序超过2000 ...

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor lithography machine market is dominated by ASML, particularly in the EUV lithography segment, while Canon and Nikon, once industry leaders, are exploring new technologies to regain their competitive edge [1][2][3]. Group 1: Historical Context - Canon and Nikon were once the giants of the lithography machine industry, holding a significant market share in the 1980s and 1990s due to their advancements in step-and-repeat and scanning lithography technologies [2]. - The shift in industry dynamics was closely tied to technological choices, with Canon and Nikon falling behind due to misjudgments in the transition from DUV to EUV technology, allowing ASML to dominate the market [3]. Group 2: Canon's New Strategy - Canon is focusing on nanoimprint lithography (NIL) as a core development direction, which differs fundamentally from traditional optical lithography by directly imprinting semiconductor circuit patterns onto wafers [5][8]. - The launch of Canon's NIL equipment, FPA-1200NZ2C, achieved a minimum line width of 14 nanometers, with aspirations to reach 10 nanometers, indicating its potential in advanced chip manufacturing [5][12]. - Canon has integrated its optical and materials science expertise to enhance the precision and durability of NIL technology, aiming to improve yield rates in chip production [8][9]. Group 3: Market Positioning - Canon's NIL technology is positioned to compete in cost-sensitive markets, such as 3D NAND flash memory, where it can provide a cost-effective alternative to ASML's EUV machines [12][14]. - Collaborations with companies like Kioxia and DNP have been pivotal for Canon, focusing on practical applications of NIL technology and improving mask quality, which is crucial for pattern transfer accuracy [9][10]. Group 4: Nikon's Response - Nikon is also actively pursuing new technologies to regain its market position, including the development of a new generation of ArFi lithography machines compatible with ASML's ecosystem, expected to launch in the 2028 fiscal year [23][24]. - The new ArFi machines will feature innovative lens and stage designs to enhance optical performance and production efficiency, targeting the growing demand for advanced semiconductor manufacturing [23][24]. Group 5: Industry Innovations - Various companies are exploring disruptive technologies as alternatives to EUV, such as Inversion Semiconductor's laser wakefield acceleration technology and Lace Lithography's atomic lithography, which promise lower costs and energy consumption [34][35]. - The emergence of these technologies indicates a potential shift from a single-giant monopoly to a multi-technology landscape in the lithography sector, fostering competition and innovation [36][39].

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor lithography machine market is dominated by ASML, particularly in the EUV lithography segment, while Canon and Nikon, once industry leaders, are exploring new technologies to regain their competitive edge [1][3][5]. Group 1: Historical Context - Canon and Nikon were once the giants of the lithography machine industry, holding a significant market share in the 1980s and 1990s due to their advancements in step-and-repeat and scanning lithography technologies [2]. - The shift in industry dynamics was closely tied to technological choices, with Canon and Nikon falling behind due to misjudgments regarding the transition from DUV to EUV technology, allowing ASML to emerge as the leader [3]. Group 2: Canon's New Strategies - Canon is focusing on nanoimprint lithography (NIL) as a core development direction, which differs fundamentally from traditional optical lithography by directly imprinting patterns onto wafers [7]. - The introduction of Canon's FPA-1200NZ2C device, capable of achieving a minimum line width of 14 nanometers, marks a significant advancement, with aspirations to reach 10 nanometers, thus entering the advanced chip manufacturing domain [9][13]. - Canon's collaborations with companies like Kioxia and DNP aim to enhance NIL technology, addressing challenges in mask quality and pattern transfer precision [10][11]. Group 3: Advantages and Challenges of Nanoimprint Technology - Nanoimprint technology offers significant advantages over EUV lithography, including lower costs and reduced energy consumption, making it competitive in cost-sensitive markets like 3D NAND flash memory [12][15]. - Despite its potential, challenges remain in ensuring stability and yield in large-scale production, as well as compatibility with existing production lines [17]. Group 4: Nikon's Strategic Moves - Nikon is also actively pursuing new technologies, including the development of a new generation of ArFi lithography machines, aiming to regain market share in the immersion lithography segment [25][26]. - The upcoming ArF lithography equipment is designed to be compatible with ASML's ecosystem, facilitating easier transitions for existing users [20]. Group 5: Industry Trends and Future Outlook - The exploration of alternative technologies to EUV by various companies, including Inversion Semiconductor and Lace Lithography, indicates a shift towards a more diversified lithography landscape [36][37]. - The competitive landscape is evolving, with Canon and Nikon seeking to establish themselves in niche markets while addressing the challenges posed by ASML's dominance [41].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the increasing demand for photolithography and electron beam lithography equipment in top universities, indicating a focus on strengthening chip talent cultivation and foundational research hardware [2]. Group 1: Equipment Demand and Procurement - Recent procurement data from June 21 to July 21 shows a surge in universities purchasing lithography equipment, which is essential for semiconductor manufacturing and modern information technology [2]. - Photolithography machines are crucial for transferring circuit patterns onto silicon wafers with nanometer-level precision, functioning similarly to a "precision projector" [2]. - The article categorizes lithography machines based on their light sources: UV, DUV, and EUV, with ASML being the only global manufacturer of EUV lithography machines [2]. Group 2: Procurement Details - Southeast University has procured a mask lithography machine (SUSS MA/BA6) for approximately 3,540,637 yuan, with the bid date set for July 17, 2025 [3]. - Sun Yat-sen University is upgrading its electron beam lithography machine (Raith, customized) for about 1,921,420 yuan, with a bid date of July 11, 2025 [3]. - Peking University Shenzhen has acquired a lithography machine (SUSS MA/BA6Gen) for around 2,996,000 yuan, also with a bid date of July 11, 2025 [3]. - Jilin Normal University is investing in a range of equipment, including a lithography machine, for a total of 3,218,980 yuan, with a bid date of June 23, 2025 [3].

Investment Rating - The report rates the electronic industry as "Outperform" compared to the market [1] Core Insights - The PCB sector continues to lead the electronic industry, with the SW electronic industry index increasing by 2.15% compared to the 1.09% rise in the CSI 300 index [1] - The report highlights significant advancements in domestic EUV lithography machines, with expectations for trial production in Q3 2025 [4][5] - The global lithography equipment market is projected to reach $29.57 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9% [5][15] - The domestic lithography machine industry is gradually taking shape, supported by substantial government funding exceeding 600 billion RMB [25][26] Summary by Sections 1. Lithography Machines: The Core of Semiconductor Industry - Lithography machines are essential for transferring circuit patterns onto silicon wafers, utilizing light sources and masks [6][8] - The technology has evolved significantly, reducing the wavelength used in lithography from 436nm to 13.5nm, enabling the production of 7nm process node chips [11][13] 2. Market Landscape of Lithography Machines - The global lithography equipment market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 5% from 2024 to 2034, reaching $37.81 billion by 2029 [5][15] - ASML dominates the market with a 61% share, followed by Canon and Nikon [18][20] 3. Domestic Lithography Machine Industry Chain - The domestic industry is supported by three national funds, with investments totaling over 600 billion RMB since 2014 [25][26] - Key players include Shanghai Microelectronics and Xinkailai, focusing on advanced EUV lithography machines [25][26] 4. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in the domestic semiconductor supply chain, including optical systems and key materials suppliers [1][25][26]