O’Reilly Automotive (NasdaqGS:ORLY) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 05, 2026 11:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsBrad W. Beckham - CEOBrent G. Kirby - PresidentJeremy Fletcher - CFOSteven Zaccone - Director of Equity ResearchConference Call ParticipantsBrian Nagel - AnalystGreg Melich - Managing Director and Senior Equity Research AnalystMichael Lasser - AnalystSteven Forbes - AnalystZachary Fadem - AnalystOperatorWelcome to the O'Reilly Automotive Inc. fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings call. My name is ...

Gold Industry - The Gabelli Gold Fund (GLDIX) has achieved impressive returns of 194% over the past year, indicating strong fundamentals behind the gold rally [1] - Central banks are increasingly investing in gold, which is expected to sustain the current rally, with gold recently experiencing its largest advance in six years [5] - Countries like China are shifting away from holding US dollars and are opting for gold as a store of value [3] Mining Sector - Analysts from the Gabelli Gold Fund recently visited seven mines in Western Australia to assess the mining industry [4] - The fund operates without leverage, but the profitability of gold miners increases significantly when gold prices rise, as their costs do not increase at the same rate as revenues per ounce [5] Automotive Parts Industry - The automotive parts sector is experiencing increased demand due to an aging vehicle fleet, with a focus on the need for parts for approximately 300 million cars in the United States [10] - Advanced Auto Parts has seen a decline of about 15% over the past six months, attributed to supply chain issues and competition from other companies like O'Reilly and AutoZone [11][12] - The new CEO of Advanced Auto Parts is working to improve parts availability, which is expected to enhance the company's performance in the coming years [12] Live Entertainment and Sports - The live entertainment sector is anticipated to grow significantly, with a focus on corporate financial engineering, including spin-offs and acquisitions [13] - Companies like Madison Square Garden Sports and the Atlanta Braves are highlighted as potential investment opportunities, especially with upcoming events like the World Cup [15] - Manchester United is also mentioned as a company undergoing financial changes, which could present investment opportunities [16] Media and Entertainment - Warner Brothers is in discussions with Netflix, with the stock price of Warner Brothers having increased from a low of $12 to $28 over the past year [18] - Paramount is seen as a competitor in the media space, with ongoing negotiations that could impact its stock performance [21][22]

Core Viewpoint - Genuine Parts Company (GPC) has a long history of paying dividends, but its financial performance in 2025 has raised concerns about its sustainability, particularly as it now pays out nearly all of its net income in dividends [2][3]. Financial Performance - GPC's earnings payout ratio is at 70.4%, with earnings of $5.81 per share and dividends of $4.09, indicating a concerning trend as net income fell by 31.3% year-over-year to $904 million while dividends continued to rise [3][8]. - The free cash flow (FCF) payout ratio is approximately 60%, which is considered adequate, but the remaining free cash flow after capital expenditures is only $129 million, a significant decrease from $396 million the previous year [4]. Balance Sheet Condition - Total debt has increased by 31% over two years to $6.4 billion, while cash reserves have decreased by 61% to $431 million, leading to a higher debt-to-equity ratio of 1.34x [5][6]. - Interest coverage remains strong at 8.2x, and net debt-to-EBITDA is manageable at 3.1x, but short-term debt has tripled in two years, indicating potential liquidity issues [6]. Dividend History and Growth - GPC has consistently raised its dividend since 1957, making it a Dividend King, but the latest increase of 3% to $1.03 is the slowest growth rate in recent history [7].

Trade Agreement Overview - The U.S. and Taiwan have reached a trade and investment agreement that caps tariff rates on imports from Taiwan at 15% [1] - The agreement includes reciprocal duties on goods from Taiwan and sector-specific levies on items such as auto parts, timber, and wood derivative products [2] Tariff Details - The previous reciprocal tariff on goods from Taiwan was 20%, imposed by the Trump administration [4] - A zero percent reciprocal tariff will be applied to generic pharmaceuticals, aircraft components, and unavailable natural resources [2] Implementation Timeline - No specific timeline has been provided for when the new tariff rates will take effect or when the agreement will be finalized [3] Semiconductor Industry Provisions - Taiwan companies building semiconductor production plants in the U.S. can avoid Section 232 duties on imports up to 2.5 times a site's planned capacity during construction [5] - Companies completing new U.S. chip production projects can import 1.5 times the new production capacity without incurring Section 232 duties [6] Investment Commitments - Taiwan has committed to making $250 billion in direct investments in advanced semiconductor, energy, and artificial intelligence production in the U.S. [7] - Additionally, Taiwan will provide at least $250 billion in credit guarantees to support further U.S. semiconductor supply chain investments [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Zacks Auto Retail and Wholesale industry is experiencing a mixed operating environment, with challenges such as slowing vehicle sales, high borrowing costs, and affordability constraints, while some companies are positioned to outperform through strategic acquisitions and digital initiatives [1] Industry Overview - The auto retail and wholesale industry is crucial for delivering vehicles and parts to consumers, operating through dealership networks and retail chains [2] - The industry's performance is closely tied to economic conditions, with consumer spending on vehicles typically increasing during economic growth and declining during downturns [2] - The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the shift towards online tools and e-commerce, a trend expected to continue [2] Factors Shaping Industry Dynamics - U.S. vehicle sales are projected to decline, with total new vehicle sales expected to be around 15.8 million units in 2026, a 2.4% year-over-year decrease, and new retail sales likely to fall 1.5% to 13.1 million units [3] - High interest rates, reduced manufacturer incentives, and tight household budgets are negatively impacting demand, while average new car prices are around $50,000 [3] - The EV market is facing uncertainty due to the loss of federal tax incentives, leading automakers to reduce EV investments and focus on gas and hybrid models [4] Strategic Buyouts - Auto retailers are actively pursuing acquisitions to expand their market reach and enhance competitive positioning, which helps diversify brand portfolios and improve operational efficiencies [5] Digitization - Dealers are investing in digital platforms to enhance customer experience, with tools like virtual showrooms and online pricing improving transparency and engagement [6] Capital Allocation - Many auto retailers are focusing on shareholder returns through share buybacks and dividend increases, supported by strong cash flow from disciplined acquisitions and cost-control initiatives [7] Industry Rank - The Zacks Auto Retail & Wholesale industry holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 89, placing it in the top 36% of nearly 245 Zacks industries, indicating strong near-term prospects [9][10] Stock Performance - The industry has underperformed compared to the S&P 500 and the Auto, Tires, and Truck sector over the past year, declining more than 1% while the S&P 500 and sector grew by 18% and 12%, respectively [12] Valuation - The industry is currently trading at an EV/EBITDA ratio of 8.36X, significantly lower than the S&P 500's 18.68X and the sector's 26.92X [15] Company Highlights - **AutoNation**: A leading automotive retailer expanding through acquisitions, with recent additions expected to generate significant annual revenues. The company is also enhancing its digital capabilities and prioritizing shareholder returns with a $1 billion share repurchase plan [19][20][21] - **Asbury Automotive Group**: A diversified auto retailer benefiting from multiple income streams and strategic acquisitions, with a focus on digitization through its Clicklane platform. The company is also expanding into higher-margin segments and reporting improved productivity from new technology [24][25][26]

Core Insights - U.S. retail and restaurant sales remained unchanged in October compared to September, indicating a moderation in consumer spending due to concerns over rising prices and economic uncertainties following a summer spending spree [1][3]. Retail Sales Performance - A significant factor contributing to the stagnant sales was a 1.6% decline in sales at motor vehicle and auto parts dealerships, primarily due to the end of federal subsidies that had previously boosted demand for electric vehicles. Excluding this category, retail sales increased by 0.4% [2]. - The overall flat spending in October was below economists' expectations and followed a revised 0.1% increase in September. Retail sales had previously surged by 0.6% in July and August and 1% in June [3]. Consumer Behavior and Economic Indicators - The retail sales report suggests that consumers are being selective in their spending, with many households facing high prices for essentials like groceries and rent, compounded by tariffs on imported goods [5]. - The latest job report indicates a deteriorating employment situation, with a net loss of 105,000 jobs in October, which could negatively impact consumer spending and the broader economy [7]. Sector-Specific Sales Trends - Sales in clothing and accessories stores rose by 0.9%, while furniture and home furnishing stores saw a 2.3% increase, likely driven by rising prices due to tariffs. Online retailers experienced a 1.8% sales increase, and department stores reported a 4.9% rise. However, restaurant sales, a key indicator of discretionary spending, fell by 0.4% [6]. Outlook for Holiday Sales - Despite the disappointing retail sales report for October, underlying details suggest potential for improved consumer spending in the fourth quarter, particularly as retailers prepare for the holiday shopping season with extended hours and promotions [4].

Core Viewpoint - Advance Auto Parts' stock declined by 6.7% following a price target cut by Evercore ISI to $58 per share, raising concerns about its performance in light of rival AutoZone's disappointing earnings report [1][4]. Group 1: AutoZone's Performance - AutoZone reported fiscal Q1 2026 earnings with a sales increase of 8% year-over-year, totaling $4.6 billion, and same-store sales growth of 5.5% [3]. - Despite the sales growth, AutoZone's earnings per share of $31.04 fell short of analyst expectations of $32.40, primarily due to a two percentage-point decline in gross margin and rising operating costs as a percentage of sales [4]. - The overall earnings per share for AutoZone experienced a 5% decline, which has implications for competitors like Advance Auto Parts [4]. Group 2: Implications for Advance Auto Parts - Investors are concerned that if AutoZone, a strong competitor, is facing challenges, the situation for Advance Auto Parts, which has been unprofitable in three of its last six quarters, is likely worse [4]. - The market reaction suggests that the decline in AutoZone's performance is a significant factor influencing the sell-off of Advance Auto Parts stock, rather than just the price target adjustment by Evercore [1][5].

Toll Brothers - Shares of Toll Brothers are under pressure due to concerns that the housing market may remain challenging into 2026, indicating a slow recovery [1][5] - The company reported mixed results for the last quarter, with revenue of $3.42 billion exceeding expectations of $3.3 billion, but adjusted EPS of $4.58 falling short [2] - Toll Brothers expects to deliver between 10,200 and 10,700 units in 2026, which is below market expectations [2] - The average selling prices for homes are projected to be between $970,000 and $990,000 for 2026, which is in line with Wall Street's forecasts [3][4] AutoZone - AutoZone's quarterly results were weaker than expected, with EPS at $31.04 and revenue at $4.63 billion, both lower than market expectations [6] - The company's investments and growth initiatives have negatively impacted margins, with gross margins declining and operating expenses increasing [7] - Despite the challenges, same-store sales increased by 5.5%, and commercial sales saw a significant jump of 14.5% [7][8] Norwegian Cruise Line - Norwegian Cruise Line received a downgrade from Goldman Sachs, moving from a buy to neutral, with a price target of $21 [9][10] - Concerns are raised regarding Norwegian's significant exposure to the Caribbean market, which may lead to profitability challenges due to rapid capacity expansion [11][12]

Group 1: Earnings Season Overview - The Q3 earnings season has shown solid results, with 99% of S&P 500 companies reporting a 13.4% increase in earnings per share, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth [2][3] - Analysts had initially expected a lower earnings growth of 7.9% for Q3, indicating a significant positive surprise in actual results [3] Group 2: Company-Specific Earnings Reports - AutoZone (AZO) reported earnings of $31.04 per share on revenue of $4.62 billion, missing estimates of $32.40 and $4.64 billion respectively, with gross profit decreasing due to inventory charges [6][7] - Campbell's Company (CPB) saw a 3% decline in net sales to $2.67 billion and earnings per share of $0.65, below the expected $0.71 [8][9] - Toll Brothers (TOL) reported earnings per share of $4.58, missing estimates of $4.89, while revenue was $3.41 billion, exceeding estimates of $3.31 billion [11][12] - Victoria's Secret (VSCO) stock rose over 13% after raising its 2025 guidance for net sales and earnings, forecasting net sales between $6.45 billion and $6.48 billion [18][19] - Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) shares fell 4% after forecasting Q1 revenue below estimates, expecting $9 billion to $9.4 billion compared to the $9.9 billion expected [22] - CrowdStrike (CRWD) reported a 22% revenue increase to $1.23 billion, raising its full-year guidance to $4.79 billion to $4.80 billion [55][56] Group 3: AI Mentions and Market Sentiment - Mentions of "AI" on earnings calls reached a record high, with 306 S&P 500 companies citing the term, reflecting the growing importance of AI in corporate strategies [14][15] - Companies mentioning AI have experienced higher average stock price increases compared to those that did not, indicating a market trend favoring AI-related narratives [15][16] - Oracle (ORCL) is expected to report earnings soon, which may influence sentiment around AI and its cloud business backlog [17]

Core Insights - The devastating floods in South and Southeast Asia have resulted in over 1,300 fatalities and at least $20 billion in economic losses, highlighting the increasing risks posed by climate change and extreme weather to the region's growing populations and economies [1][8]. Economic Impact - A series of three tropical cyclones coincided with the northeast monsoon, leading to unprecedented rainfall and widespread destruction from Sri Lanka to Indonesia, affecting homes, infrastructure, and agricultural output [2]. - The total economic losses from the recent floods are estimated at $20 billion, with last year's seasonal floods causing approximately $25 billion in losses across the Asia-Pacific region [8]. - Thailand's economy may face additional losses of up to $400 million per month due to paralyzed high-value exports, while Indonesia's losses are estimated at over $4 billion, accounting for 0.29% of its GDP [15][16]. Climate Change and Resilience - Climate change is identified as a significant factor exacerbating flooding in Southeast Asia, with research indicating that "compound disasters" are likely to occur more frequently, increasing the overall damage [3][4]. - The region has a high percentage of its population living in flood-prone areas, with 21% in Malaysia and around 20% in Indonesia, indicating a growing vulnerability as global warming accelerates [4][5]. - Despite the risks, progress in building climate resilience is lagging, as many Southeast Asian countries prioritize growth over disaster preparedness [6]. Infrastructure and Recovery - The recent floods have led to a significant pause in infrastructure projects in the Philippines due to a corruption scandal, impacting investor confidence and economic growth [7]. - Recovery efforts will require substantial fiscal outlays to strengthen infrastructure and build resilience, particularly for poorer economies facing difficult budgetary choices [12]. Sector-Specific Effects - The floods have caused delays in manufacturing growth in Vietnam, with storm damage estimated at $3.2 billion this year, nearing the record losses from Super Typhoon Yagi in 2024 [18]. - Coffee producers in Vietnam are still on track for higher production and exports despite the flooding, indicating some resilience in specific sectors [10].