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NAND闪存需求爆棚,“二线联盟”铠侠和闪迪的崛起
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2026-01-29 04:04
Core Insights - NAND is transitioning from a cyclical commodity to a critical component of AI infrastructure, with structural changes in demand elevating prices and valuations, bringing companies like Kioxia and SanDisk into the spotlight [1][2] - The shift in AI workloads from training to inference is expanding the deployment of SSDs in AI data centers, significantly increasing the procurement scale of NAND flash memory [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The demand for NAND is no longer solely dependent on traditional consumer electronics but is increasingly tied to capital expenditures and architectural evolution on the data center side [2] - The rapid expansion of AI infrastructure has created a significant supply gap, prompting data center operators to actively seek a diversified supplier base [2] - According to TrendForce, by Q3 2025, Samsung leads the market with a 32.3% share, followed by SK Hynix at 19.3%, Kioxia at 15.3%, and SanDisk at 12.4%, indicating a rise in influence for Kioxia and SanDisk [2] Group 2: Strategic Alliances - Kioxia and SanDisk have maintained a deep collaboration for over 25 years, operating major NAND production sites in Japan, which are among the largest globally [3] - The companies jointly develop BiCS FLASH 3D NAND technology, currently at its 8th generation, with plans for the 10th generation, featuring over 300 layers, to begin production in 2026 [3] Group 3: Technological Focus - Kioxia primarily supplies large electronic manufacturers in Japan and globally, while SanDisk dominates the consumer storage market and has a strong presence in the enterprise SSD sector in North America and overseas [4] - SanDisk aims to integrate HBF (High Bandwidth Flash) into products from NVIDIA, AMD, and Google by late 2027 to early 2028, offering larger capacities at lower costs compared to HBM [4][5] - Kioxia is focusing on a performance leap in SSDs, planning to launch a new type of hard drive by 2027 that approaches 100 times the speed of current products, in collaboration with NVIDIA for generative AI servers [5] Group 4: Market Expectations - The ongoing demand for NAND driven by AI inference is a central narrative, with Kioxia's market capitalization surpassing 10 trillion yen and SanDisk's aggressive price increase plans reinforcing expectations for NAND's recovery in profitability [6] - Key variables for the next phase include the sustainability of price increases translating into profit improvements, the timely realization of technological advancements like BiCS10 and HBF, and the management of competitive boundaries between Kioxia and SanDisk to avoid internal conflicts [6]