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英伟达(NVDA):交银国际研究:英伟达(NVDAUS)
BOCOM International· 2025-11-21 02:45
Investment Rating - The investment rating for NVIDIA (NVDA US) is "Buy" with a target price of $245.00, indicating a potential upside of 35.6% from the current closing price of $180.64 [2][3][14]. Core Insights - The company's performance and guidance have exceeded expectations, with a focus on sustainability and supply chain issues. The revenue guidance for FY4Q26 is set at $65 billion, significantly above market expectations [7][8]. - NVIDIA's revenue is projected to grow substantially, with estimates of $213.82 billion for FY2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 63.9% [6][12]. - The management has reiterated a revenue target of $500 billion from Blackwell and Rubin products over the next two years, maintaining a gross margin of around 75% [7][8]. Financial Overview - Revenue for FY2024 is expected to be $60.92 billion, increasing to $130.50 billion in FY2025, and reaching $213.82 billion by FY2026 [6][16]. - Net profit is projected to grow from $32.31 billion in FY2024 to $115.02 billion in FY2026, with a significant increase in earnings per share (EPS) from $1.30 to $4.64 over the same period [6][16]. - The gross margin is expected to remain strong, with estimates of 71.4% for FY2026 and 75% for FY2027 [7][12]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - NVIDIA's data center revenue is a key driver, with significant contributions from its Hopper and Blackwell series, which are expected to dominate the AI infrastructure market [7][8]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the AI and semiconductor sectors, with a strong focus on advanced computing technologies and strategic supplier relationships [8][9]. - Concerns regarding potential market bubbles and supply chain constraints are acknowledged, but NVIDIA's strong market position and strategic planning mitigate these risks [8][9].