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观察| 当算力成为次贷,“雷曼时刻”还会远吗?
Core Argument - The article argues that NVIDIA, under the leadership of Jensen Huang, is manipulating the AI industry through financial engineering, creating a façade of prosperity while engaging in practices reminiscent of the 2008 financial crisis [2][10][20]. Financial Manipulation - NVIDIA's investment strategy involves providing substantial funding to AI companies like OpenAI, which is tied to the purchase of NVIDIA's chips, effectively creating a closed-loop system that inflates demand and stock prices without genuine market need [10][11][14]. - The company has guaranteed loans for data centers like CoreWeave, compelling them to purchase NVIDIA chips, which mirrors the tactics used in the subprime mortgage crisis [4][6][14]. Market Control - As of 2024, NVIDIA holds a staggering 78% market share in the AI chip sector, with significant orders from major companies like Microsoft and Meta for its new Blackwell B200 chip [7][25]. - Huang's investment in OpenAI includes a clause mandating that 95% of its computing power must come from NVIDIA chips, effectively sidelining competitors [10][11]. Illusions of Demand - The article highlights that the perceived demand for AI chips is artificially created, with companies like OpenAI inflating their valuations based on NVIDIA's investments rather than actual profitability [10][14]. - This has led to a speculative environment where companies are hoarding chips, fearing shortages, which further drives up prices and creates a bubble [11][16]. Risks and Consequences - The article warns of potential risks, including an inventory surplus of 300,000 H100 chips and the looming debt crisis for data centers that may struggle to repay loans if AI demand falters [16][17]. - Regulatory scrutiny is increasing, with investigations into NVIDIA's market dominance, which could disrupt its operations and financial strategies [18][31]. Conclusion - The narrative concludes that NVIDIA's current practices may lead to a significant market correction, similar to the fallout from the 2008 financial crisis, leaving ordinary investors and companies to bear the consequences of this engineered bubble [20][21].