The dollar gained, putting it on track for its biggest two-day rally since April, as precious metals extended their slump and after unexpectedly strong US manufacturing data. The world’s primary reserve currency rose against almost all of its major peers Monday and a Bloomberg dollar gauge is up about 1.2% over two sessions. That’s the most since the aftermath of President Donald Trump’s rollout of sweeping tariffs 10 months ago roiled markets. Most Read from Bloomberg Gold and silver both sank Monday, ...

Core Viewpoint - The resilience of the US economy is currently overpowering geopolitical turmoil, leading to a surprising strength in the US dollar despite expectations of a decline due to Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1][2]. Economic Indicators - Traders had increased their bets against the US dollar, anticipating a decline as the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, which would incentivize global investors to seek higher returns elsewhere [2]. - The December jobs report revealed a surprising decline in the unemployment rate, which countered weaker-than-expected growth in nonfarm payrolls, contributing to doubts about the extent of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4]. Market Performance - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose for the fourth consecutive day, reaching its highest level since December 10, with a 0.6% increase this week, marking the largest advance since November [5]. - Options positioning has become increasingly positive, with market sentiment being the most bullish since early December [5]. Market Sentiment - The dollar's recent upward movement illustrates the challenges faced by Wall Street forecasters in predicting market directions during the Trump administration, highlighting the volatility and unpredictability of the current economic landscape [6]. - The post-pandemic economy has defied recession fears, with ongoing uncertainties stemming from Trump's trade policies and military threats, further complicating market predictions [7].

The Year America's Economic Edge Evaporated 作者：罗伯特·伯吉斯 罗伯特·伯吉斯是彭博观点版块的执行主编。此前，他曾担任彭博新闻社负责金融市场的全球执 行主编。 又到了投资者查看账户，决定节日庆祝方式的时候了：是香槟鱼子酱配香槟，还是啤酒薯片配啤 酒？MSCI美国指数16.3%的涨幅似乎表明前者更有可能，然而，后者或许更合适。 没错，股市涨幅已连续第三年轻松超过长期平均水平。但这一结果很难印证唐纳德·特朗普总统 反复宣称的美国是全球"最火热"的国家。与世界其他地区相比，美国股市表现平平：MSCI美国 指数的涨幅远不及MSCI全球所有国家指数（不包括美国）29.2%的涨幅。 摄影师：Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images North America 这种情况不可能持续下去。事实上，个人储蓄率已降至4%，为2022年以来的最低水平，而 2022年正是通货膨胀肆虐之时。 为了理解此次表现究竟有多糟糕，不妨想想，自2009年全球经济开始从金融危机中复苏以来， 从未发生过如此规模的事件。股市并非个例，美国债券和美元也同样表现不佳。 投资者为何如此迅速地抛售 ...

Core Viewpoint - The dollar is expected to experience its most significant annual decline in eight years, with further decreases anticipated if the next Federal Reserve chair implements deeper interest-rate cuts as expected [1]. Group 1: Dollar Performance - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has decreased by approximately 8% this year, facing pressure following Donald Trump's tariffs and his push for a dovish Fed chair [2]. - The dollar gauge saw a temporary rise of 0.2% after a report indicated a drop in US unemployment benefit applications, but it is still projected to end December down about 1% [5]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Influence - The Federal Reserve's decisions, particularly regarding the new chair after Jerome Powell, will be a critical factor for the dollar in the first quarter [3]. - With at least two rate cuts anticipated for next year, the US's monetary policy is diverging from other developed nations, diminishing the dollar's attractiveness [4]. Group 3: Potential Fed Chair Candidates - National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is viewed as the leading candidate to replace Jerome Powell, with other names like Kevin Warsh, Christopher Waller, and Michelle Bowman also in consideration [7]. - The market has largely priced in Hassett's potential appointment, while Warsh or Waller may not be as inclined to implement quick rate cuts, which could be more favorable for the dollar [8].

The dollar ended 2025 with the sharpest annual retreat in eight years and investors say more declines are coming if the next Federal Reserve chief opts for deeper interest-rate cuts as anticipated. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell about 8% this year and traders are betting on further weakness. After tumbling in the wake of President Donald Trump’s tariff rollout in April, the greenback failed to rebound much in part on expectations that Trump will name a dovish successor to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, wh ...

Core Viewpoint - The dollar is experiencing its worst annual performance in eight years, with expectations of further declines in the options market for 2025 and beyond [1][2]. Economic Performance - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index decreased by 0.4% to its lowest level since early October, reflecting an overall decline of about 8% this year, marking the worst performance since 2017 [2]. - The US economy grew at a 4.3% annualized rate in the third quarter, driven by strong consumer and business spending, surpassing most forecasts [7]. Market Sentiment - Speculative traders have shifted to a bearish stance on the dollar for the first time since October, as indicated by Commodity Futures Trading Commission data [4]. - Options pricing has become increasingly negative, with traders showing the most bearish sentiment on the dollar in three months, particularly favoring the euro and Australian dollar as alternatives [5]. Analyst Perspectives - Analysts predict a continuation of the bear market for the dollar, albeit at a more modest pace, with risks tied to the potential return of US growth exceptionalism [3]. - Concerns regarding fiscal discipline and trade tensions are contributing to the negative outlook on the dollar, although there is a possibility of a rebound if upcoming data leads to a hawkish reassessment of Federal Reserve expectations [6].

Group 1 - The dollar reached its strongest level in two months due to political risks abroad and a lack of US economic data [1] - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index remained flat after gains were erased by dovish comments from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams, who supports further interest-rate cuts [2] - Demand for dollar-bullish structures has outpaced bearish ones, indicating a shift in market sentiment favoring the dollar [3] Group 2 - The US government shutdown has muted concerns about a softening labor market, reducing incentives for traders to sell the dollar [4] - Political risks in Japan and France have led to a repositioning in major currencies, with hedge funds closing short-dollar positions and showing interest in bullish exposure [5] - Hedge funds in Europe and Asia are increasing option trades, anticipating a weakening of currencies like the euro and yen against the dollar [6]

Core Viewpoint - The dollar is nearing a two-month high due to fiscal and economic concerns affecting currencies in Asia and Europe, with hedge funds increasing bearish bets on the euro and yen while showing demand for long-dollar exposure [1][2][3] Currency Performance - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose by as much as 0.3%, approaching its highest level since early August, driven by increased bearish options on the euro and yen [1][4] - The dollar has strengthened nearly 1% since the end of September, reducing its year-to-date decline to approximately 7.6% [5] Global Economic Concerns - The euro is under pressure due to political turmoil in France, while the yen has weakened amid speculation of increased fiscal expansion and slower interest-rate hikes in Japan [2][3] - Concerns regarding fiscal sustainability in Japan and France have led to a reassessment of the US macro outlook, with traders viewing the US as a relatively stable option despite the government shutdown [3] Market Sentiment - There is a notable shift in market sentiment towards the US dollar, with one-year risk reversals indicating the highest level of optimism since April, marking a significant turnaround from previous bearish positioning [4] - Despite the recent dollar strength, skepticism remains among market participants regarding the sustainability of this bounce, contributing to increased demand for gold, which recently surpassed $4,000 an ounce [5][6]

Group 1 - The US dollar has dropped to its lowest point in a week due to the first government shutdown in nearly seven years and negative private-sector payroll growth [1][4] - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell by 0.2% and is on track for a fourth consecutive day of declines, with the yen leading gains against the dollar [1][2] - Traders are preparing for further weakness in the dollar, as indicated by risk reversals showing a preference for bearish trades [2] Group 2 - Private-sector payrolls fell by 32,000 in September, contrasting with an expected increase of 51,000, leading to a downward revision of prior data [4] - Following the negative payroll data, Treasuries gained, with the two-year yield dropping six basis points to 3.55%, and traders are betting on at least two interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year [5] - A prolonged government shutdown is expected to increase pressure on the dollar, which has already declined to its lowest level since 2022 due to concerns over policy making and escalating deficits [6] Group 3 - The ADP payroll release is significant as it is likely to be the highest profile reading of the US labor market for the week, with the government's jobs report delayed by the shutdown [7]