The Year America's Economic Edge Evaporated 作者：罗伯特·伯吉斯 罗伯特·伯吉斯是彭博观点版块的执行主编。此前，他曾担任彭博新闻社负责金融市场的全球执 行主编。 又到了投资者查看账户，决定节日庆祝方式的时候了：是香槟鱼子酱配香槟，还是啤酒薯片配啤 酒？MSCI美国指数16.3%的涨幅似乎表明前者更有可能，然而，后者或许更合适。 没错，股市涨幅已连续第三年轻松超过长期平均水平。但这一结果很难印证唐纳德·特朗普总统 反复宣称的美国是全球"最火热"的国家。与世界其他地区相比，美国股市表现平平：MSCI美国 指数的涨幅远不及MSCI全球所有国家指数（不包括美国）29.2%的涨幅。 摄影师：Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images North America 这种情况不可能持续下去。事实上，个人储蓄率已降至4%，为2022年以来的最低水平，而 2022年正是通货膨胀肆虐之时。 为了理解此次表现究竟有多糟糕，不妨想想，自2009年全球经济开始从金融危机中复苏以来， 从未发生过如此规模的事件。股市并非个例，美国债券和美元也同样表现不佳。 投资者为何如此迅速地抛售 ...

The dollar ended 2025 with the sharpest annual retreat in eight years and investors say more declines are coming if the next Federal Reserve chief opts for deeper interest-rate cuts as anticipated. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell about 8% this year and traders are betting on further weakness. After tumbling in the wake of President Donald Trump’s tariff rollout in April, the greenback failed to rebound much in part on expectations that Trump will name a dovish successor to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, wh ...

Bloomberg The dollar ended 2025 with the sharpest annual retreat in eight years and investors say more declines are coming if the next Federal Reserve chief opts for deeper interest-rate cuts as anticipated. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell about 8% this year and traders are betting on further weakness. After tumbling in the wake of President Donald Trump’s tariff rollout in April, the greenback failed to rebound much in part on expectations that Trump will name a dovish successor to Fed Chair Jerome ...

The dollar is heading for its worst annual performance in eight years, and the options market is signaling that traders are preparing for more downside in the final sessions of 2025 and beyond. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell as much as 0.4% on Tuesday to the lowest level since early October before trimming its loss after a report showed US economic growth accelerated last quarter. The greenback index is down about 8% this year, putting it on track for its worst year since 2017, and the options marke ...

Group 1 - The dollar reached its strongest level in two months due to political risks abroad and a lack of US economic data [1] - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index remained flat after gains were erased by dovish comments from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams, who supports further interest-rate cuts [2] - Demand for dollar-bullish structures has outpaced bearish ones, indicating a shift in market sentiment favoring the dollar [3] Group 2 - The US government shutdown has muted concerns about a softening labor market, reducing incentives for traders to sell the dollar [4] - Political risks in Japan and France have led to a repositioning in major currencies, with hedge funds closing short-dollar positions and showing interest in bullish exposure [5] - Hedge funds in Europe and Asia are increasing option trades, anticipating a weakening of currencies like the euro and yen against the dollar [6]

Core Viewpoint - The dollar is nearing a two-month high due to fiscal and economic concerns affecting currencies in Asia and Europe, with hedge funds increasing bearish bets on the euro and yen while showing demand for long-dollar exposure [1][2][3] Currency Performance - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose by as much as 0.3%, approaching its highest level since early August, driven by increased bearish options on the euro and yen [1][4] - The dollar has strengthened nearly 1% since the end of September, reducing its year-to-date decline to approximately 7.6% [5] Global Economic Concerns - The euro is under pressure due to political turmoil in France, while the yen has weakened amid speculation of increased fiscal expansion and slower interest-rate hikes in Japan [2][3] - Concerns regarding fiscal sustainability in Japan and France have led to a reassessment of the US macro outlook, with traders viewing the US as a relatively stable option despite the government shutdown [3] Market Sentiment - There is a notable shift in market sentiment towards the US dollar, with one-year risk reversals indicating the highest level of optimism since April, marking a significant turnaround from previous bearish positioning [4] - Despite the recent dollar strength, skepticism remains among market participants regarding the sustainability of this bounce, contributing to increased demand for gold, which recently surpassed $4,000 an ounce [5][6]

Group 1 - The US dollar has dropped to its lowest point in a week due to the first government shutdown in nearly seven years and negative private-sector payroll growth [1][4] - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell by 0.2% and is on track for a fourth consecutive day of declines, with the yen leading gains against the dollar [1][2] - Traders are preparing for further weakness in the dollar, as indicated by risk reversals showing a preference for bearish trades [2] Group 2 - Private-sector payrolls fell by 32,000 in September, contrasting with an expected increase of 51,000, leading to a downward revision of prior data [4] - Following the negative payroll data, Treasuries gained, with the two-year yield dropping six basis points to 3.55%, and traders are betting on at least two interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year [5] - A prolonged government shutdown is expected to increase pressure on the dollar, which has already declined to its lowest level since 2022 due to concerns over policy making and escalating deficits [6] Group 3 - The ADP payroll release is significant as it is likely to be the highest profile reading of the US labor market for the week, with the government's jobs report delayed by the shutdown [7]