Core Insights - Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) is experiencing significant growth driven by its brands HOKA and UGG, while Under Armour, Inc. (UAA) is transforming into a premium athletic brand [1] - The competitive landscape raises questions about which stock offers better upside potential for investors [1] Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) - Deckers is focusing on high-margin markets, with fiscal 2025 net sales reaching $4.98 billion, a 16.3% year-over-year increase [2] - Projected first-quarter revenues for fiscal 2026 are between $890 million and $910 million, with HOKA expected to grow in low-double digits and UGG in mid-single digits [2] - Product innovation is key, with strong demand for updated HOKA models and new UGG hybrid products [3] - The company is expanding its omni-channel presence, balancing growth between wholesale and direct-to-consumer (DTC) channels, with international markets outperforming [4] - Despite record results in fiscal 2025, DECK faces challenges from new tariffs potentially adding costs of up to $150 million in fiscal 2026 [5] - Gross margin is expected to decline from 57.9% in fiscal 2025, with a projected contraction of 210 basis points for fiscal 2026 [6] - SG&A costs are anticipated to grow faster than revenues, leading to a decline in earnings per share to 62-67 cents from 75 cents in the prior year [8] - DECK's stock has dropped 13.6% over the past three months due to margin pressures and cautious guidance [20] Under Armour, Inc. (UAA) - Under Armour is enhancing its DTC channel by focusing on premium pricing, resulting in double-digit growth in average unit retail in fiscal 2025 [10] - The brand's loyalty program, with 28 million members, significantly contributes to U.S. DTC revenues [11] - EMEA region is a strong performer, with plans for expansion into France, Spain, and Germany in fiscal 2026 [12] - UAA recorded a 170-basis-point increase in gross margin in fiscal 2025, with expectations for further margin gains in fiscal 2026 [13][14] - The company is targeting $75 million in annualized savings by the end of fiscal 2026 through cost optimization [15] - Despite expected revenue declines of 4-5% in the first quarter of fiscal 2026, UAA is focused on long-term brand elevation and operational discipline [16][17] - UAA's stock has gained 5.5% over the past three months, driven by improving margins and premiumization efforts [20] Comparative Analysis - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for DECK suggests a 7.6% growth in sales but a 4.4% decline in earnings per share for fiscal 2026 [18] - UAA's estimates indicate a 2.1% decline in sales but a 9.7% growth in earnings per share for fiscal 2026 [19] - DECK is trading at a forward P/S multiple of 2.77, while UAA's is at 0.57, indicating UAA may offer better value [22] - Under Armour is viewed as a better investment case due to its strategic shift towards premiumization and disciplined cost control [25][26]

Core Insights - Deckers Outdoor Corporation's performance is primarily driven by strong consumer demand for its flagship brands, HOKA and UGG, with year-over-year sales growth of 10% and 3.6% respectively in Q4 FY25 [1][9] Brand Performance - HOKA's sales reached $2.2 billion in FY25, reflecting a 23.6% year-over-year increase, supported by new product launches and international expansion, particularly in EMEA and China [4][2] - UGG generated $2.5 billion in sales for FY25, marking a 13.1% year-over-year growth, with a focus on expanding its product line beyond cold-weather offerings [4][3] International Growth - HOKA's international revenues grew by 39% year-over-year, now accounting for 34% of total brand sales, while UGG's international revenues increased by 20%, representing 39% of total sales [4][2] Competitive Landscape - Key competitors in brand innovation include Wolverine World Wide, Inc. and Urban Outfitters Inc., with Wolverine's Saucony and Merrell brands showing strong revenue growth [5][6] - Urban Outfitters' brand portfolio also demonstrated positive performance, with notable increases in net sales for its brands [7] Financial Performance and Valuation - Deckers' shares have declined by 50% year-to-date, compared to a 17.6% decline in the industry [8] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 16.45X, slightly below the industry's average of 17.01X [10] - Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates a projected earnings decline of 4.4% for FY26, with a potential recovery of 9.1% in FY27 [11]

Core Insights - Deckers Outdoor Corporation's wholesale business significantly contributed to revenue growth in Q4 of fiscal 2025, with HOKA and UGG performing strongly [1][10] - Total revenues reached $1.02 billion in Q4, marking a 6% increase year over year, despite modest pressure on direct-to-consumer sales [3][10] Wholesale Performance - Wholesale revenues increased by 12.3% year over year to $611.6 million, showcasing the channel's strength in generating incremental sales [1][10] - HOKA's growth was driven by an expanded retail presence and the successful launch of the Bondi 9, while UGG's gains were attributed to strong demand for seasonal products [2][10] Strategic Initiatives - U.S. wholesale efforts included a pilot program with Journeys aimed at attracting younger consumers, while international growth was supported by partnerships with Intersport, Sport Check, and the JD Group [4] - Deckers aims for a balanced 50-50 split between wholesale and direct-to-consumer sales, with expectations for wholesale to continue outpacing DTC in fiscal 2026 [5][10] Competitive Landscape - Key competitors in the wholesale channel include Steven Madden, Ltd. and Urban Outfitters Inc., both of which reported revenue growth in their respective wholesale segments [6][8] - Steven Madden's wholesale channel generated $439.3 million in Q1 2025, while Urban Outfitters achieved a 24% revenue increase in its wholesale channel for Q1 fiscal 2026 [7][8] Financial Metrics - Deckers shares have declined by 45.4% year to date, compared to a 13.1% decline in the industry [9] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 17.82X, slightly above the industry average of 17.77X [12]

Core Viewpoint - Urban Outfitters (URBN) and Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) are competing in the Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry, each with distinct strategies and brand portfolios, facing similar challenges such as weather-related sales volatility and changing consumer preferences [1][2]. Urban Outfitters (URBN) - URBN has shown consistent performance across its diverse brand portfolio, including Anthropologie and Free People, with effective inventory management and merchandising strategies leading to higher margins [3]. - The Comparable Retail segment reported net sales growth of 8.3% for Anthropologie and 8% for Free People in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 [4]. - The Wholesale segment experienced strong growth, particularly driven by Free People's full-price selling strategy, while the Nuuly rental platform saw a 78.4% increase in net sales, achieving $13 million in operating profit for its first full year [5]. - URBN plans to open 58 new stores in fiscal 2026, focusing on high-productivity locations and aiming to expand FP Movement to 300 stores across North America [6]. - For fiscal 2026, URBN anticipates mid-single-digit sales growth, with positive retail comps expected at Free People and Anthropologie [7]. - Nuuly is projected to achieve double-digit revenue growth, supported by increasing subscriber numbers [8]. Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) - DECK is experiencing growth through its UGG and HOKA brands, with UGG leading in the premium lifestyle footwear market and HOKA growing in the high-performance segment [9]. - DECK expects a 15% year-over-year increase in fiscal 2025 net sales to $4.9 billion, with HOKA projected to grow by 24% and UGG by 10% [10]. - The company is focusing on innovation, with new product releases for HOKA and diversification of UGG's offerings beyond winter footwear [11]. - International expansion is a key strategy for DECK, particularly in high-potential markets like China [12]. - The direct-to-consumer segment has seen significant growth, supported by strong digital performance and an expanding retail presence [13]. - DECK faces near-term challenges, including inventory constraints and rising costs, which may impact fiscal performance [14]. Comparative Analysis - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates URBN's fiscal 2026 sales and EPS growth of 6.6% and 14.5%, respectively, while DECK's fiscal 2025 estimates suggest 15.4% sales growth and 21% EPS growth [15][16]. - Stock performance has diverged, with DECK shares declining 36.6% over the past six months, while URBN shares have increased by 42.8% [17]. - Valuation metrics show URBN's forward P/E at 10.61X, below its three-year median, while DECK's forward P/E is at 16.23X, also below its median [18]. - URBN is viewed as a more attractive investment opportunity due to its diversified growth strategies and favorable valuation compared to DECK, which is currently facing operational pressures [22][23].

Company Performance - Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) has experienced a significant decline in its stock price, dropping 25.9% over the past month, which is worse than the Zacks Retail-Apparel and Shoes industry's decline of 7.9% and the S&P 500's decline of 3.3% [1][4] - The stock closed at $100.88, nearly 55% below its 52-week high of $223.98 reached on January 30, 2025, and is trading below its 50 and 200-day moving averages, indicating bearish sentiment [6][9] Revenue and Growth Challenges - The decline in DECK's stock price is attributed to slowing growth and increased competition in the footwear and accessories market, with revenue deceleration due to inventory constraints affecting key brands like UGG [4][13] - Management anticipates a 13.2% decline in UGG sales in the fourth quarter, contrasting with a 16.1% year-over-year growth in the third quarter, leading to an expected overall sales growth deceleration to 1% in the fourth quarter from 17.1% in the third quarter [14][16] Cost and Margin Pressures - SG&A expenses rose 24.9% year-over-year to $535.3 million in the fiscal third quarter, driven by increased marketing spend and an expanded workforce, which is expected to pressure the company's operating margin [17] - Increased markdowns and promotional activities, particularly for HOKA, along with higher freight costs and foreign exchange pressures, are anticipated to further impact profitability [16][17] Valuation Metrics - DECK is currently trading at a forward 12-month P/S ratio of 3.09, significantly higher than the industry average of 1.45 and the sector average of 1.50, indicating strong investor confidence but also heightening valuation risk [9][10] - Compared to peers, Boot Barn has a forward P/S of 1.56, Skechers at 0.73, and Adidas at 1.35, highlighting DECK's premium positioning [10] Long-term Growth Potential - Deckers is focusing on brand portfolio reinforcement through innovative product launches and optimized distribution strategies, with management guiding for a 15% year-over-year revenue growth to $4.9 billion for fiscal 2025 [18][19] - The company is expanding its international presence, particularly in high-potential markets like China, which is expected to contribute to long-term revenue growth [21] Direct-to-Consumer Segment - The direct-to-consumer (DTC) segment is a key growth driver, with DTC net sales increasing 17.9% to $1.01 billion in the fiscal third quarter, supported by strong digital performance and the expansion of flagship retail locations [22] - Enhanced omnichannel capabilities and loyalty initiatives are fueling customer acquisition and brand loyalty, positioning the company for sustained success [22]

Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) is maintaining a strong growth trajectory, backed by the continued success of its UGG and HOKA brands, international expansion efforts and a heightened focus on direct-to- consumer (DTC) sales. The company's strong brand equity and tight inventory controls continue to support solid demand and healthy profit margins. A major contributor to Deckers' performance is the rapid growth of its DTC business. This channel allows the company to maintain tighter control over its brand ...