6 February 2026 | 6:39AM HKT Equity Research Shengyi Tech (600183.SS): PCB Factory Tour: AI CCL price increase; Solid demand along with M9 migrations We hosted Shengyi Tech's management and visited its Dongguan factory during our China PCB Tour on Jan 28. Key discussions were on CCL pricing trend, raw material cost increase and demand outlook. Overall, management expect full UT rate for the whole year, with solid orders at hand. With the faster-than-expected raw material price increase, the company raised p ...

Accessible version Technology - Asia-Pacific (H/A) ABF substrate & CCL: supply/demand outlook remains benign driven by AI Price Objective Change ABF: stronger AI overtakes the weakness in non-AI We update the ABF substrate S/D model, and now expect 1%/9% (was 1%/6%) under- supply in 2026/27, following a 5% (was 6%) oversupply in 2027E. Key changes include: 1) a stronger demand in regular server from late-2025; 2) a softer outlook in PC/gaming due to the impact from memory shortage and price hike; and 3) the ...

Summary of Kingboard Laminates (1888.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Kingboard Laminates (1888.HK) - **Industry**: Printed Circuit Board (PCB) and Copper Clad Laminate (CCL) manufacturing - **Profile**: A leading global supplier of CCL and upstream raw materials, including glass fiber, copper foil, and epoxy resin, with over 20 plants in China and abroad, serving diverse markets such as consumer electronics, home appliances, and automotive [3][4] Key Points from the Conference Call - **CCL Pricing Trends**: - CCL prices have been raised multiple times in Q3 and Q4 of 2025 due to increased costs of copper and fiberglass, with expectations for continued price increases into January 2026 [4] - The management attributes the rising prices to heightened demand for AI-related CCL, as some suppliers are reallocating capacity from non-AI to AI products [4] - **Market Demand and Growth Projections**: - There is a strong demand for CCL driven by the adoption of next-generation high-end AI server platforms, with expectations for the global CCL market for AI servers to grow at a CAGR of 178% from 2025 to 2027, reaching approximately US$19 billion by 2027 [2] - The M9+ CCL segment is anticipated to contribute significantly to this growth due to its higher dollar content [2] - **Strategic Focus**: - Kingboard is focusing on providing total solutions for clients and expanding its capacity to meet rising AI demand, leveraging its expertise in both CCL and raw materials to differentiate itself from competitors [1][4] - Plans are in place to expand in-house fiberglass production specifically for AI CCL [4] - **Competitive Advantages**: - The company's vertical integration strategy allows it to offer cost-effective products, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [3] Additional Insights - **Management's Perspective**: The management emphasizes that product performance is heavily reliant on the company's proprietary knowledge regarding product formulas and manufacturing processes [4] - **Investment Context**: The insights from the management align with a broader positive outlook on the CCL market, particularly in relation to AI applications, indicating potential investment opportunities in this sector [2] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding Kingboard Laminates, highlighting its market position, pricing strategies, growth projections, and competitive advantages in the evolving landscape of the PCB and CCL industry.

Summary of Key Points from Kingboard Laminates (1888.HK) Management Call Company Overview - **Company**: Kingboard Laminates (1888.HK) - **Industry**: Printed Circuit Board (PCB) and Copper Clad Laminate (CCL) manufacturing - **Profile**: Kingboard is a leading global supplier of CCL and upstream raw materials, including glass fiber, copper foil, and epoxy resin, with over 20 plants worldwide, primarily in China and Thailand [3][4] Core Insights 1. **Vertical Integration as a Strength**: - Kingboard's vertically integrated manufacturing process allows it to produce both CCL and upstream raw materials, enhancing manufacturing efficiency and cost control [4][8] - This integration is viewed as a key competitive advantage, enabling Kingboard to offer cost-effective products [4][7] 2. **Expansion into High-End Products**: - Management highlighted a strategic shift towards high-value-added products, particularly in the consumer electronics, home appliances, and automotive sectors [8] - Kingboard is focusing on R&D and sales of raw materials for high-end CCL, such as low-DK glass fiber, to improve signal integrity and meet market demand [8][9] 3. **Capacity Expansion Plans**: - Kingboard is actively expanding its CCL and raw material capacity, with plans to add 1,500 tons of copper foil monthly in mainland China by 2025 to cater to rising demand from data centers [9] - Additional investments in low-DK glass fiber yarn manufacturing are planned to support future CCL growth and meet client supply chain diversification needs [9] 4. **Market Demand and Future Outlook**: - Despite current low revenue contributions from data communication, management is optimistic about the rising demand for high-end CCL products, particularly in data communications and AI applications [2][8] - The company aims to leverage its vertical integration and economies of scale to enhance profitability and market presence [4][8] Additional Important Points - **Global Expansion**: Kingboard's capacity expansion in Thailand is part of a strategy to enhance its global footprint and better serve overseas markets amid macroeconomic uncertainties [9] - **Client Base**: Kingboard's major clients include its parent company, Kingboard Holdings, which also produces PCBs, indicating a strong inter-company relationship [3] This summary encapsulates the key takeaways from the management call, focusing on Kingboard's strategic initiatives, market positioning, and future growth prospects in the PCB and CCL industry.

Summary of Shennan Circuit (002916.SZ) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Shennan Circuit - **Industry**: PCB (Printed Circuit Board) manufacturing - **Market Position**: Leading PCB supplier in China, focusing on telecom and aeronautics sectors, with a "3-in-1" model encompassing PCB, PCB assembly, and IC substrate packaging [20][21] Key Financial Highlights - **Revenue Growth**: - 9M25 revenue increased by 28.4% year-over-year (YoY) to RMB 16.754 billion, with 3Q25 growth at 33.3% compared to 25.6% in 1H25 [1] - **Net Profit**: - Attributable net profit surged 56.3% YoY to RMB 2.326 billion, with 3Q25 growth accelerating to 92.9% compared to 37.8% in 1H25 [1] - **Earnings Estimates**: - 2025-27 earnings estimates raised by 13-15%, target price increased to RMB 281 from RMB 230 based on a 48x PE for 2026E [1][22] 4Q25 Outlook - **Revenue Forecast**: Expected 4Q25 revenue growth of 33% YoY to RMB 6.427 billion, similar to 3Q growth [3] - **Net Profit Forecast**: Anticipated net profit growth of 115% to RMB 838 million, driven by a low base in 4Q24 [3] Capacity Expansion Plans - **New Plants**: - Thai plant to start in mid-2025, targeting annual revenue of RMB 1.3 billion - Nantong Phase 4 for AI-PCB to commence in 4Q25, with projected annual revenue of RMB 1.5 billion [4] - **Capital Expenditure**: High capex of around RMB 3 billion per annum planned to support AI infrastructure growth [4] Margin and Cost Insights - **Gross Margin**: - 3Q25 gross margin improved to 31.4%, with net margin rising to 15.3% [11] - **Material Cost Inflation**: - Major CCL players increased ASP by RMB 5-10 per sheet in October due to a ~10% rise in copper costs [12] Segment Performance - **PCB and Substrate Segments**: - PCB segment gross margin reached a record high of 36% in 3Q25, with AI-PCB margins estimated at over 40% [10] - Substrate gross margin improved significantly to ~20% in 3Q25 from 15% in 1H25 [10] Investment Strategy - **Recommendation**: Buy rating maintained, with a preference for Shengyi Tech over Shennan due to higher operating leverage in the CCL industry [1][21] - **Market Exposure**: Over 80% revenue exposure to PCB-related businesses, with strong growth potential in AI servers and automotive sectors [21] Risks - **Downside Risks**: - Slower-than-expected growth in AI server demand, weaker automotive demand, and higher laminate cost inflation could impact performance [23] Conclusion - Shennan Circuit is positioned for significant growth driven by its strong market position in the PCB sector, ongoing capacity expansions, and favorable industry dynamics, despite potential risks from market fluctuations and cost pressures [1][21][23]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses advancements in the semiconductor packaging industry, particularly focusing on the evolution of packaging technologies such as CoWoS (Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate), CoPoS (Chip-on-Panel-on-Substrate), and CoWoP (Chip-on-Wafer-on-PCB) [9][18][24]. Core Concepts and Technologies - **CCL (Copper Clad Laminate)** is identified as a core material for the electronics industry, essential for high-frequency and high-speed circuits, with major suppliers including TUC, EMC, Unimicron, Resonac, MGC, and Panasonic [5][6]. - **CoWoP** aims to eliminate the traditional ABF (Ajinomoto Build-up Film) package substrate, allowing direct mounting of chip and silicon interposer modules onto high-precision PCBs, theoretically offering shorter signal paths and improved thermal management [10][25][30]. - **Technical Challenges**: CoWoP faces significant challenges, including the need for PCB precision below 10 μm, thermo-mechanical reliability issues, and manufacturing yield challenges [12][29][30]. Market Dynamics - The demand for high-end CCL and PCB materials is rising sharply due to the expansion of AI accelerators and data center computing needs, with a notable shift from M7-grade to M8 and M9-grade materials [74][76][81]. - NVIDIA's next-generation Rubin platform and Google's chip are expected to adopt M9-grade CCL, indicating a significant increase in material costs associated with advanced AI computing platforms [77][80]. Future Outlook - CoWoP is not expected to enter mass production in the near term, with industry consensus suggesting that NVIDIA will continue to rely on a mix of CoWoS and CoPoS solutions for product reliability and supply stability [13][26][37]. - The transition to CoWoP may require one to two more product generations before it can reshape the packaging models and supply chain ecosystem for high-performance computing and AI servers [14][28]. Key Suppliers and Innovations - **Mitsui Mining** is highlighted as a dominant supplier of ultra-thin copper foil, critical for SLP and CoWoP applications, with the market entering a high-growth phase due to increasing demand from AI and HPC sectors [41][55]. - **Shin-Etsu Chemical** has developed innovative equipment and methods for advanced packaging substrates, aiming to enhance production capabilities for next-generation chiplet and high-frequency packaging [66][70]. Material Specifications - The specifications for high-speed PCB materials are becoming increasingly stringent, with targets for dielectric constant (Dk) ≤ 3.3 and dissipation factor (Df) ≤ 0.005 to minimize signal loss and ensure impedance stability [48][49]. - Electronic-grade glass fiber fabric is emphasized as a critical reinforcement material for CCL, playing a vital role in ensuring signal integrity and power integrity in high-performance applications [82][86]. Conclusion - The semiconductor packaging industry is undergoing significant transformations driven by advancements in technologies like CoWoP, with increasing demands for high-performance materials and innovative manufacturing processes shaping the future landscape of AI and HPC systems [22][73].