Summary of Shennan Circuit (002916.SZ) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Shennan Circuit - **Industry**: PCB (Printed Circuit Board) manufacturing - **Market Position**: Leading PCB supplier in China, focusing on telecom and aeronautics sectors, with a "3-in-1" model encompassing PCB, PCB assembly, and IC substrate packaging [20][21] Key Financial Highlights - **Revenue Growth**: - 9M25 revenue increased by 28.4% year-over-year (YoY) to RMB 16.754 billion, with 3Q25 growth at 33.3% compared to 25.6% in 1H25 [1] - **Net Profit**: - Attributable net profit surged 56.3% YoY to RMB 2.326 billion, with 3Q25 growth accelerating to 92.9% compared to 37.8% in 1H25 [1] - **Earnings Estimates**: - 2025-27 earnings estimates raised by 13-15%, target price increased to RMB 281 from RMB 230 based on a 48x PE for 2026E [1][22] 4Q25 Outlook - **Revenue Forecast**: Expected 4Q25 revenue growth of 33% YoY to RMB 6.427 billion, similar to 3Q growth [3] - **Net Profit Forecast**: Anticipated net profit growth of 115% to RMB 838 million, driven by a low base in 4Q24 [3] Capacity Expansion Plans - **New Plants**: - Thai plant to start in mid-2025, targeting annual revenue of RMB 1.3 billion - Nantong Phase 4 for AI-PCB to commence in 4Q25, with projected annual revenue of RMB 1.5 billion [4] - **Capital Expenditure**: High capex of around RMB 3 billion per annum planned to support AI infrastructure growth [4] Margin and Cost Insights - **Gross Margin**: - 3Q25 gross margin improved to 31.4%, with net margin rising to 15.3% [11] - **Material Cost Inflation**: - Major CCL players increased ASP by RMB 5-10 per sheet in October due to a ~10% rise in copper costs [12] Segment Performance - **PCB and Substrate Segments**: - PCB segment gross margin reached a record high of 36% in 3Q25, with AI-PCB margins estimated at over 40% [10] - Substrate gross margin improved significantly to ~20% in 3Q25 from 15% in 1H25 [10] Investment Strategy - **Recommendation**: Buy rating maintained, with a preference for Shengyi Tech over Shennan due to higher operating leverage in the CCL industry [1][21] - **Market Exposure**: Over 80% revenue exposure to PCB-related businesses, with strong growth potential in AI servers and automotive sectors [21] Risks - **Downside Risks**: - Slower-than-expected growth in AI server demand, weaker automotive demand, and higher laminate cost inflation could impact performance [23] Conclusion - Shennan Circuit is positioned for significant growth driven by its strong market position in the PCB sector, ongoing capacity expansions, and favorable industry dynamics, despite potential risks from market fluctuations and cost pressures [1][21][23]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses advancements in the semiconductor packaging industry, particularly focusing on the evolution of packaging technologies such as CoWoS (Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate), CoPoS (Chip-on-Panel-on-Substrate), and CoWoP (Chip-on-Wafer-on-PCB) [9][18][24]. Core Concepts and Technologies - **CCL (Copper Clad Laminate)** is identified as a core material for the electronics industry, essential for high-frequency and high-speed circuits, with major suppliers including TUC, EMC, Unimicron, Resonac, MGC, and Panasonic [5][6]. - **CoWoP** aims to eliminate the traditional ABF (Ajinomoto Build-up Film) package substrate, allowing direct mounting of chip and silicon interposer modules onto high-precision PCBs, theoretically offering shorter signal paths and improved thermal management [10][25][30]. - **Technical Challenges**: CoWoP faces significant challenges, including the need for PCB precision below 10 μm, thermo-mechanical reliability issues, and manufacturing yield challenges [12][29][30]. Market Dynamics - The demand for high-end CCL and PCB materials is rising sharply due to the expansion of AI accelerators and data center computing needs, with a notable shift from M7-grade to M8 and M9-grade materials [74][76][81]. - NVIDIA's next-generation Rubin platform and Google's chip are expected to adopt M9-grade CCL, indicating a significant increase in material costs associated with advanced AI computing platforms [77][80]. Future Outlook - CoWoP is not expected to enter mass production in the near term, with industry consensus suggesting that NVIDIA will continue to rely on a mix of CoWoS and CoPoS solutions for product reliability and supply stability [13][26][37]. - The transition to CoWoP may require one to two more product generations before it can reshape the packaging models and supply chain ecosystem for high-performance computing and AI servers [14][28]. Key Suppliers and Innovations - **Mitsui Mining** is highlighted as a dominant supplier of ultra-thin copper foil, critical for SLP and CoWoP applications, with the market entering a high-growth phase due to increasing demand from AI and HPC sectors [41][55]. - **Shin-Etsu Chemical** has developed innovative equipment and methods for advanced packaging substrates, aiming to enhance production capabilities for next-generation chiplet and high-frequency packaging [66][70]. Material Specifications - The specifications for high-speed PCB materials are becoming increasingly stringent, with targets for dielectric constant (Dk) ≤ 3.3 and dissipation factor (Df) ≤ 0.005 to minimize signal loss and ensure impedance stability [48][49]. - Electronic-grade glass fiber fabric is emphasized as a critical reinforcement material for CCL, playing a vital role in ensuring signal integrity and power integrity in high-performance applications [82][86]. Conclusion - The semiconductor packaging industry is undergoing significant transformations driven by advancements in technologies like CoWoP, with increasing demands for high-performance materials and innovative manufacturing processes shaping the future landscape of AI and HPC systems [22][73].