Group 1 - Recent weeks have seen stagnation in the US stock market, following a rebound after tariff-related panic subsided, indicating that the recent rally may end under current conditions [1] - Global credit spreads have been widening, with the S&P 500 index's earnings yield declining significantly more than the corresponding decline in credit spreads [2][9] - The trend of widening credit spreads is observed globally, with similar patterns in Japan and Europe, where credit spreads have narrowed to pre-panic levels, reflecting a lack of confidence in the credit market [4] Group 2 - A notable change in Europe is the rise of the 10-year euro swap rate after it dipped into negative territory at the end of 2024, indicating a shift in market dynamics [5] - Cross-currency basis swap spreads for euro and yen relative to the dollar are also rising, suggesting a decrease in dollar financing costs, aligning with the trend of narrowing credit spreads expected in 2024 and 2025 [6] - The divergence between the recent rise in the 10-year euro swap spread and high-yield spreads indicates a potential shift in market sentiment [7] Group 3 - The widening of global credit spreads suggests a change in market participants' attitudes, which may lead to a contraction in the S&P 500 index's price-to-earnings ratio [9][10] - Current trends indicate that credit spreads are moving in a different direction than the stock market, which could provide valuable warning signals for future stock market movements [10]