Group 1 - The current trade policy has become more predictable, allowing the market to significantly lower the pricing of recession risks, which has eased investment sentiment [1][2] - As of Thursday, the global investment-grade corporate bond yield spread has narrowed to 79 basis points, the lowest level since July 2007, just before the global financial crisis [2][4] - Despite the improved market sentiment and the S&P 500 index reaching a historical high, the Federal Reserve has not signaled an imminent rate cut, indicating that more data is needed to ensure inflation risks do not persist [3][5] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs warns that market participants should not overlook potential risk factors due to current optimism, including the possibility of economic growth falling below expectations and concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve [3][5] - The narrowing of credit spreads and the overall market optimism may mask underlying risks, prompting Goldman Sachs to advise clients to maintain certain hedging positions in their portfolios [3][4] - Although negative news related to tariffs is no longer the main driver of risk sentiment, the impact of tariffs on different segments of the supply chain will lead to performance differentiation among companies, becoming a new source of market risk [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Goldman Sachs credit strategists are urging clients to hedge risks as global corporate bond yield spreads have narrowed to the lowest level since 2007, specifically 79 basis points as of Thursday, marking a significant reduction in risk pricing related to economic recession [1][2] - The current trade policies are significantly more predictable compared to March and April, allowing the market to reassess risks and contributing to the narrowing of credit spreads to pre-financial crisis levels [1] - Despite the optimistic market sentiment, Goldman Sachs warns that there are still considerable downside risks that warrant maintaining some hedging positions in investment portfolios [2] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs economists expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points in September, October, and December, with two additional cuts anticipated in 2026 [3] - Although negative news related to tariffs is no longer the main driver of risk sentiment, the impact of tariffs on different segments of the supply chain will lead to performance divergence among companies, presenting a new source of market risk [3]

全球利差正在扩大 过去几周，美股停滞不前，此前在关税风波后的恐慌情绪消退后曾出现过相当不错的反弹。然而，信贷 和外汇市场的仓位情况表明，近期股市的反弹无论在何种情况下都可能结束。 在中东近期局势动荡之前，全球信贷利差在过去几天里一直在扩大。此外，上周三，实际波动率已降至 极低水平，这使得标普500指数进一步上涨至更高水平变得更具挑战性。 高信贷利差与标普500指数盈利收益率 多年来，CDX高收益信贷利差指数与标普500指数的盈利收益率一直紧密相关，表明当信用利差扩大 时，股市市盈率下降，而当信用利差收窄时，市盈率上升。最近更值得注意的是，标普500指数的盈利 收益率下降幅度远大于信贷利差指数的同等幅度。 国高收益利差指数的走势并非完全相关，但趋势相似。然而，更值得注意的是，近期10年期欧元掉期利 差一直在上升，并与高收益利差出现背离。 当这些基差掉期利差出现反转，并与当前的美国高收益债券价差进行对比时，就很容易看出其共同变 化。然而，最近，日元和欧元的价差与美国高收益债券的价差出现了差异，这表明美国的高收益债券价 差应该会进一步上升。 最终，全球范围内的利差都在扩大，这表明部分市场参与者的态度正在发生变化。鉴 ...

Core Insights - Moody's indicates that the influx of retail capital into private credit may compress credit spreads and encourage riskier lending practices [1] Group 1 - The entry of retail capital into private credit markets is expected to lead to tighter credit spreads [1] - Increased competition from retail investors could result in lenders taking on higher risks in their lending activities [1]

欧洲央行副行长金多斯：股票估值偏高，信贷利差与风险脱节。 ...