CEA(全国碳市场碳排放配额)

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全国碳市场:CEA大幅反弹,CCER活跃度攀升
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-15 09:31
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In mid - to late June, trading volume is expected to climb. In 2025, the remaining 40% of mandatory circulation allowances can only meet part of the market demand, and about 0.5 - 0.6 billion tons of market demand may be met by the voluntary sales of surplus enterprises. After the CEA price dropped to around 70 yuan, bottom - fishing demand emerged, but currently, the release of mandatory circulation allowances is insufficient, and potential selling pressure still exists. The market price is oscillating at the bottom and still lacks upward momentum. Considering the verification node, trading volume is expected to increase in mid - to late June [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 National Carbon Market Comprehensive Data - This week, the comprehensive price of the national carbon market rebounded significantly, with a closing price of 70.96 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4.50% and a year - on - year decrease of 26.45%. The latest single - day average trading price in the national greenhouse gas voluntary emission reduction trading market was 89.32 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5.08%. The weekly total trading volume in the national carbon market was about 3.1549 million tons, a 42% increase from last week. Among them, the volume of block trading agreements was 2.75 million tons, and the volume of listed trading agreements was about 0.4 million tons, accounting for 13% of the weekly total trading volume (a decrease of 5 percentage points). Carbon quota 24 remained the most actively traded annual quota this week, with its trading volume accounting for 87% (a week - on - week decrease of 5 percentage points). The weekly total trading volume in the national greenhouse gas voluntary emission reduction trading market was about 0.21 million tons, a more than 15 - fold increase week - on - week. The weekly average trading price in the national carbon market was 69.46 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.35%. The weekly average trading price in the national greenhouse gas voluntary emission reduction trading market was 86.74 yuan/ton, a 1.68% recovery from the previous week, 25% higher than the weekly average trading price of listed trading agreements in the national carbon market [1]. - The closing prices of carbon quotas from 2019 - 2020 to 2024 were 69.11, 72.00, 71.50, 71.00, and 71.20 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week growth rates of 3.15%, 6.67%, 6.72%, 2.51%, and 3.55% respectively, and year - on - year growth rates of - 28.38%, - 25.39%, - 25.87%, N/A, and N/A respectively. The latest average block trading price of carbon quota 24 was 71.20 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4.01% [7]. 3.2 Carbon Quota Market Data by Year - For different years' carbon quotas, the differences between the average listed trading price and the average block trading price were 6.46%, 2.54%, - 4.70%, - 0.05%, and - 1.55% respectively. The total trading volumes were 566, 246, 3010, 11629, and 1297 million tons respectively, and the proportions of block trading were 86%, 53%, 83%, 83%, and 77% respectively [11]. 3.3 National Greenhouse Gas Voluntary Emission Reduction Registration and Market Trading Data - In 2025, the first batch of registered emission reduction projects included multiple wind and solar power projects, with a total applied - for registered emission reduction of 9.48 million tons. The weekly total trading volume in the national greenhouse gas voluntary emission reduction trading market was 0.2081 million tons, the weekly total trading amount was 18.0529 million yuan, the average trading price was 86.74 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.68%, and the premium rate was 25% [13][14]. 4. Recommended Strategy It is recommended that enterprises with quota shortages make batch purchases at low prices before the fourth quarter [3].