Core Points - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has released the fifth batch of CCER methodology drafts, expanding the scope to include six new areas such as energy efficiency in existing public buildings and renewable energy hydrogen production [3][5] - The CCER methodology system is currently under construction, with a comprehensive framework expected to be published by the end of 2025 or early next year [3][12] - The CCER market has seen significant activity, with a cumulative transaction volume of approximately 3.19 million tons and a transaction value exceeding 267 million yuan as of October 13, 2025 [8] CCER Methodology Expansion - The new methodologies cover diverse sectors, including public building energy efficiency, agricultural waste treatment, and geothermal energy, marking a shift towards more integrated and industry-specific approaches [4][5] - The methodologies are designed to be precise, focusing on specific criteria such as building type and compliance with national standards, which enhances the credibility of the carbon reduction claims [6][10] Market Dynamics - The demand for CCERs is increasing, particularly as the national carbon emissions trading market expands to include industries like steel, cement, and aluminum smelting, while supply remains relatively limited [4][8] - The CCER trading price has risen due to the interplay of supply and demand, with the market expected to grow as more projects are developed under the new methodologies [4][8] Focus on Consumption End - The methodologies are increasingly addressing emissions at the consumption end, with recent additions focusing on sectors that were previously underrepresented, such as agriculture and building energy efficiency [9][10] - This shift indicates a strategic move towards supporting high-carbon industries in their transition to lower carbon operations [9][10] Future Developments - The establishment of a comprehensive CCER methodology system is anticipated, which will clarify project eligibility and set standards for various sectors [12][13] - Continuous updates and evaluations of the methodologies will be necessary to adapt to evolving industry needs and technological advancements [13][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the environmental industry [13] Core Insights - Since 2024, China has accelerated the establishment of a national carbon market regulatory framework, with significant progress in the CCER (China Certified Emission Reduction) methodology since October 2023. As of September 2025, the cumulative transaction volume of CCER is approximately 2.43 billion yuan, with an average transaction price of 86.41 yuan per ton [2][6][8] Summary by Sections Carbon Emission Control System - The carbon emission control system is gradually improving, with a unified national carbon market being constructed. The market includes both the national carbon quota trading market (CEA) and the voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction trading market (CCER), which operate independently but are interconnected through a quota offset mechanism [6][19][21] CCER Methodology Expansion - The CCER methodology has been continuously expanded, with four batches of methodologies released since October 2023. The first batch includes forestry carbon sinks and offshore wind power, while subsequent batches cover various energy-saving and emission reduction projects. As of September 2025, 29 voluntary emission reduction projects have been registered, with an expected annual reduction of 10.438 million tons [7][26][27] CCER Market Performance - The average transaction price of CCER is currently higher than that of CEA, reflecting a temporary supply-demand imbalance due to strict project approvals and limited issuance. The report anticipates that as the issuance of CCER increases and market mechanisms mature, prices will gradually return to a reasonable relationship. The average transaction price of CCER from January to September 2025 is 86.41 yuan per ton, while CEA's average is 69.29 yuan per ton [8][34] Benefits of Agricultural and Forestry Biomass Projects - The report highlights the potential benefits of agricultural and forestry biomass projects under the CCER framework. For instance, assuming a CCER price of 80 yuan per ton, companies like Changqing Group and China Everbright Green Environmental Protection could see significant revenue contributions from CCER sales, amounting to 139 million yuan and 384 million HKD, respectively [9][44][45] Investment Logic for CCER - The investment logic for CCER emphasizes the importance of additionality in projects, focusing on profitability compensation rather than mere emission reduction. Key areas of interest include carbon monitoring equipment and consulting services, as well as the acceleration of related industries such as biomass power generation and hydrogen energy [10][49]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In mid - to late June, trading volume is expected to climb. In 2025, the remaining 40% of mandatory circulation allowances can only meet part of the market demand, and about 0.5 - 0.6 billion tons of market demand may be met by the voluntary sales of surplus enterprises. After the CEA price dropped to around 70 yuan, bottom - fishing demand emerged, but currently, the release of mandatory circulation allowances is insufficient, and potential selling pressure still exists. The market price is oscillating at the bottom and still lacks upward momentum. Considering the verification node, trading volume is expected to increase in mid - to late June [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 National Carbon Market Comprehensive Data - This week, the comprehensive price of the national carbon market rebounded significantly, with a closing price of 70.96 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4.50% and a year - on - year decrease of 26.45%. The latest single - day average trading price in the national greenhouse gas voluntary emission reduction trading market was 89.32 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5.08%. The weekly total trading volume in the national carbon market was about 3.1549 million tons, a 42% increase from last week. Among them, the volume of block trading agreements was 2.75 million tons, and the volume of listed trading agreements was about 0.4 million tons, accounting for 13% of the weekly total trading volume (a decrease of 5 percentage points). Carbon quota 24 remained the most actively traded annual quota this week, with its trading volume accounting for 87% (a week - on - week decrease of 5 percentage points). The weekly total trading volume in the national greenhouse gas voluntary emission reduction trading market was about 0.21 million tons, a more than 15 - fold increase week - on - week. The weekly average trading price in the national carbon market was 69.46 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.35%. The weekly average trading price in the national greenhouse gas voluntary emission reduction trading market was 86.74 yuan/ton, a 1.68% recovery from the previous week, 25% higher than the weekly average trading price of listed trading agreements in the national carbon market [1]. - The closing prices of carbon quotas from 2019 - 2020 to 2024 were 69.11, 72.00, 71.50, 71.00, and 71.20 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week growth rates of 3.15%, 6.67%, 6.72%, 2.51%, and 3.55% respectively, and year - on - year growth rates of - 28.38%, - 25.39%, - 25.87%, N/A, and N/A respectively. The latest average block trading price of carbon quota 24 was 71.20 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4.01% [7]. 3.2 Carbon Quota Market Data by Year - For different years' carbon quotas, the differences between the average listed trading price and the average block trading price were 6.46%, 2.54%, - 4.70%, - 0.05%, and - 1.55% respectively. The total trading volumes were 566, 246, 3010, 11629, and 1297 million tons respectively, and the proportions of block trading were 86%, 53%, 83%, 83%, and 77% respectively [11]. 3.3 National Greenhouse Gas Voluntary Emission Reduction Registration and Market Trading Data - In 2025, the first batch of registered emission reduction projects included multiple wind and solar power projects, with a total applied - for registered emission reduction of 9.48 million tons. The weekly total trading volume in the national greenhouse gas voluntary emission reduction trading market was 0.2081 million tons, the weekly total trading amount was 18.0529 million yuan, the average trading price was 86.74 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.68%, and the premium rate was 25% [13][14]. 4. Recommended Strategy It is recommended that enterprises with quota shortages make batch purchases at low prices before the fourth quarter [3].