梁锷在《农业与技术》2025年第6期《农地轮作休耕生态补偿市场化机制的国际比较与经验借鉴》一文 中指出，农地轮作休耕生态补偿的市场化机制是全球农业可持续发展的重要实践，通过政府政策支持和 市场激励相结合的方式，实现生态保护与农民收入平衡。随着农业现代化的发展和环境保护意识的增 强，欧美发达国家和地区通过一系列政策、法规和市场化手段，推动农地轮作休耕生态补偿体系不断完 善。例如，美国和欧盟通过碳信用交易、生态服务支付等手段，推动生态友好型农业发展，提高农民参 与轮作休耕的积极性。东南亚、巴西等发展中国家和地区则逐步探索市场化补偿机制，相较欧美发达国 家，这些地区的农业生态补偿体系仍处于初期阶段，正逐步引入市场机制，解决农业生产与环境保护之 间的矛盾，在碳市场、绿色金融等领域取得初步进展。构建市场化、多元化农地轮作休耕生态补偿机 制，对于我国实现农业可持续发展、生态保护和农民增收具有重要意义。借鉴国际经验，政府政策与市 场化手段的结合、碳交易市场的潜力开发、生态服务支付机制的推广，都是提升生态补偿效果的关键。 同时，国际合作与绿色金融的推动作用不可忽视，可以引入更多外部资金和创新经验。 （文章来源：经济日报） ...

Company Overview -卓越新能 is the first domestic company specializing in the research and production of biodiesel from waste oils, and it is a leading enterprise in ester-based biodiesel production in China [2][3] - The company has maintained profitability despite extreme tariff policies, showcasing superior cost control, supplier management, and sales channel expansion capabilities [2][3] - The company currently has ester-based production capacity of nearly 500,000 tons, with plans to expand biodiesel production to approximately 1.3 million tons [2][3] Industry Outlook - The biodiesel industry has significant growth potential, driven by domestic and international policy support, with the EU being the largest consumer of biodiesel globally [3] - The demand for biodiesel is expected to increase as carbon pricing and marginal cost improvements create profitability opportunities [3] - The company can mitigate the impact of EU anti-dumping duties by exporting to high-demand regions outside the EU and establishing production facilities in non-tax regions [3] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 4.807 billion, 7.304 billion, and 8.529 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 34.9%, 51.9%, and 16.8% respectively [4] - Net profits for the same period are expected to be 360 million, 619 million, and 774 million yuan, with growth rates of 141.6%, 71.8%, and 25.2% respectively [4] - The estimated EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.00, 5.15, and 6.45 yuan per share, with corresponding PE ratios of 15.37, 8.95, and 7.15 [4] Catalysts for Stock Price - New production capacity coming online both domestically and internationally [5] - Decrease in raw material costs [5] - Acceleration of demand growth driven by domestic policies [5]

全国碳币场行情简报 (2025年第136期) 发布日期:2025-08-12 CEA缩量下跌,CCER成交清淡 1、CEA:CEA22大跌,主力标的延续弱势;挂牌29.3万吨,大宗19.0万吨 2、CCER:挂牌协议成交量0.21万吨,成交均价82.33元/吨（4.26%） 建议缺口企业在8月底前分批逢低采购 策略 核心 逻辑 (1)强制流通配额耗尽的节点或将成为碳价反转的现实支撑。预计到10月中上旬强制流 通配额才会耗尽。然而,预期交易可能会再次上演,这意味着Q3或许就会看到碳价反 转的迹象。 (2)8月前,受强制流通配额释放缓慢和成交意愿不足影响,碳价或维持震荡。9月起, 随着履约压力逐步显现，上涨动能有望释放，价格可能趋势性回升。 1、企业非理性导致配额到期作废;2、企业不看好未来市场选择全部抛售变现;3、未 风险 考虑跨行业回购配额规避结转。 国家看安期货 图表1:全国碳配额(CEA)最新行情信息-现货 | | CEA19-20 | CEA21 | CEA22 | CEA23 | CEA24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元/吨) | 71 ...

Group 1 - The Beijing Carbon Market has achieved a cumulative trading volume of over 110 million tons and a trading value of nearly 4.7 billion yuan [1][2] - The Beijing Environment Exchange was established in 2008 and was renamed Beijing Green Exchange in 2020, focusing on various environmental rights trading services [1] - The carbon emission trading market in Beijing has been operational for 11 compliance cycles, with the average online transaction price of carbon emission allowances rising from around 50 yuan per ton to 111 yuan per ton by 2024 [2] Group 2 - The market includes approximately 900 key carbon emission units, managing a total carbon emission volume of about 45 million tons, covering industries such as electricity, cement manufacturing, and public transportation [1] - The Beijing Green Exchange has developed a national voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction registration and trading system, facilitating over 2,000 units to complete trading system registration, with a cumulative trading volume exceeding 2.4 million tons and a trading value exceeding 200 million yuan [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the steel sector, highlighting strong price performance and potential recovery in profitability for steel companies [5][6]. Core Insights - The "anti-involution" policy continues to influence the market, leading to stronger expectations for supply-side constraints and supporting higher steel prices [5]. - As of July 11, 2025, steel prices have increased, with notable rises in various categories such as rebar and hot-rolled steel [3][11]. - The report indicates a decrease in steel production and inventory levels, suggesting a tightening supply situation [4][5]. Price Summary - As of July 11, 2025, the prices for key steel products are as follows: - Rebar (20mm HRB400): 3,240 CNY/ton, up 60 CNY/ton from last week - High-line (8.0mm): 3,410 CNY/ton, up 50 CNY/ton - Hot-rolled (3.0mm): 3,350 CNY/ton, up 60 CNY/ton - Cold-rolled (1.0mm): 3,680 CNY/ton, up 70 CNY/ton - Common medium plate (20mm): 3,330 CNY/ton, up 10 CNY/ton [3][11][12]. Production and Inventory - As of July 11, 2025, total steel production for the five major categories was 8.73 million tons, a decrease of 124,400 tons week-on-week [4]. - Total social inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 20,200 tons to 9.1278 million tons, while steel mill inventory increased by 17,700 tons to 4.2557 million tons [4]. Profitability Analysis - The report notes fluctuations in steel profitability, with rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel margins changing by -14 CNY/ton, -13 CNY/ton, and +33 CNY/ton respectively week-on-week [3][4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their performance and market position: - For flat steel: Baosteel, Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel - For special steel: Xianglou New Materials, CITIC Special Steel, Yongjin Co. - For pipe materials: Jiuli Special Materials, Youfa Group, Wujin Stainless Steel - Additionally, it suggests paying attention to high-temperature alloy companies like Fushun Special Steel [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that energy is the fundamental structure shaping civilization and geopolitics, with a focus on the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy in the 21st century [1][4][9]. Energy Transition and Its Implications - The 19th century was dominated by coal, which established Britain's global manufacturing supremacy [2]. - The 20th century saw oil as the key resource, enabling the United States to maintain its position as the world's leading economy through extensive use and control of fossil fuels [3]. - The article raises questions about how renewable energy will reshape the world both materially and geopolitically in the 21st century [4][6]. Renewable Energy Developments - The transition to renewable energy is characterized by a fundamental shift in energy production models from centralized to distributed systems, allowing households to generate power [11][12]. - Smart grids will replace traditional grids, creating a new "energy internet" and redefining energy infrastructure [13]. - The manufacturing ecosystem will undergo a complete transformation, with industries moving towards electrification and new production cost structures emerging [14][19]. Geopolitical Shifts - The article discusses the potential weakening of the petrodollar system as renewable energy transactions may bypass dollar settlements, impacting traditional energy-exporting nations [24][25]. - China is positioned as a leader in the renewable energy supply chain, controlling over 70% of global photovoltaic capacity and 60% of wind power capacity, which could lead to a shift in geopolitical power dynamics [26]. - The competition for setting new energy standards, similar to the 5G standard battle, will have significant implications for global influence [27]. Conclusion - The article concludes that the 21st century is moving away from fossil fuels, and the ability to dominate the renewable energy landscape will shape global power structures for the foreseeable future [28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the steel sector, highlighting specific companies within the industry [3][4]. Core Insights - The report indicates that iron water remains at a high level, with strong cost support. Although there is a long-term downward trend in iron water, the short-term decline is relatively slow. The supply of iron ore has not yet been released, solidifying the cost bottom in the short term [3][4]. - The overall production and inventory levels of steel are at low points year-on-year, with no significant supply-demand contradictions. The profitability of steel companies is expected to recover due to the optimization of crude steel supply and the gradual release of new iron ore production capacity [3][4]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - As of June 27, steel prices showed mixed trends, with rebar prices at 3,090 CNY/ton (up 20 CNY), high line prices at 3,300 CNY/ton (up 30 CNY), hot-rolled prices stable at 3,240 CNY/ton, cold-rolled prices down 20 CNY to 3,490 CNY/ton, and medium plate prices down 20 CNY to 3,280 CNY/ton [1][10][11]. Production and Inventory - The total production of five major steel varieties reached 8.81 million tons, an increase of 124,800 tons week-on-week. The apparent consumption of rebar was estimated at 2.1991 million tons, up 0.72 million tons from the previous week [2][3]. Profitability - The report estimates that the gross profit for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel changed by +1 CNY/ton, +5 CNY/ton, and -21 CNY/ton respectively compared to the previous week. Electric arc furnace steel saw a decrease of 6 CNY/ton in gross profit [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: 1. General steel sector: Baosteel, Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel 2. Special steel sector: Xianglou New Materials, CITIC Special Steel, Yongjin Co. 3. Pipe materials: Jiuli Special Materials, Youfa Group, Wujin Stainless Steel - Suggested to pay attention to high-temperature alloy stocks: Fushun Special Steel [3][4]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - Baosteel (600019.SH): EPS forecast for 2024A at 0.34 CNY, PE at 19, rated as "Buy" - Hualing Steel (000932.SZ): EPS forecast for 2024A at 0.29 CNY, PE at 15, rated as "Buy" - Nanjing Steel (600282.SH): EPS forecast for 2024A at 0.37 CNY, PE at 11, rated as "Buy" [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In mid - to late June, trading volume is expected to climb. In 2025, the remaining 40% of mandatory circulation allowances can only meet part of the market demand, and about 0.5 - 0.6 billion tons of market demand may be met by the voluntary sales of surplus enterprises. After the CEA price dropped to around 70 yuan, bottom - fishing demand emerged, but currently, the release of mandatory circulation allowances is insufficient, and potential selling pressure still exists. The market price is oscillating at the bottom and still lacks upward momentum. Considering the verification node, trading volume is expected to increase in mid - to late June [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 National Carbon Market Comprehensive Data - This week, the comprehensive price of the national carbon market rebounded significantly, with a closing price of 70.96 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4.50% and a year - on - year decrease of 26.45%. The latest single - day average trading price in the national greenhouse gas voluntary emission reduction trading market was 89.32 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5.08%. The weekly total trading volume in the national carbon market was about 3.1549 million tons, a 42% increase from last week. Among them, the volume of block trading agreements was 2.75 million tons, and the volume of listed trading agreements was about 0.4 million tons, accounting for 13% of the weekly total trading volume (a decrease of 5 percentage points). Carbon quota 24 remained the most actively traded annual quota this week, with its trading volume accounting for 87% (a week - on - week decrease of 5 percentage points). The weekly total trading volume in the national greenhouse gas voluntary emission reduction trading market was about 0.21 million tons, a more than 15 - fold increase week - on - week. The weekly average trading price in the national carbon market was 69.46 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.35%. The weekly average trading price in the national greenhouse gas voluntary emission reduction trading market was 86.74 yuan/ton, a 1.68% recovery from the previous week, 25% higher than the weekly average trading price of listed trading agreements in the national carbon market [1]. - The closing prices of carbon quotas from 2019 - 2020 to 2024 were 69.11, 72.00, 71.50, 71.00, and 71.20 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week growth rates of 3.15%, 6.67%, 6.72%, 2.51%, and 3.55% respectively, and year - on - year growth rates of - 28.38%, - 25.39%, - 25.87%, N/A, and N/A respectively. The latest average block trading price of carbon quota 24 was 71.20 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4.01% [7]. 3.2 Carbon Quota Market Data by Year - For different years' carbon quotas, the differences between the average listed trading price and the average block trading price were 6.46%, 2.54%, - 4.70%, - 0.05%, and - 1.55% respectively. The total trading volumes were 566, 246, 3010, 11629, and 1297 million tons respectively, and the proportions of block trading were 86%, 53%, 83%, 83%, and 77% respectively [11]. 3.3 National Greenhouse Gas Voluntary Emission Reduction Registration and Market Trading Data - In 2025, the first batch of registered emission reduction projects included multiple wind and solar power projects, with a total applied - for registered emission reduction of 9.48 million tons. The weekly total trading volume in the national greenhouse gas voluntary emission reduction trading market was 0.2081 million tons, the weekly total trading amount was 18.0529 million yuan, the average trading price was 86.74 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.68%, and the premium rate was 25% [13][14]. 4. Recommended Strategy It is recommended that enterprises with quota shortages make batch purchases at low prices before the fourth quarter [3].

Core Viewpoint - The national carbon emission trading market (CEA) has seen a continuous decline in prices, with the latest price at 68.46 yuan/ton, marking a 35.54% drop since reaching a peak of 106.2 yuan/ton in November last year [1][2][3]. Market Dynamics - The CEA price drop is attributed to a supply-demand imbalance and the digestion of policy expectations, with the market currently favoring sellers who lack trading enthusiasm, leading to decreased trading volumes [3][4]. - The trading volume in the national carbon market has been notably low, with 14 trading days this year recording zero transactions, which is unusual compared to previous years [2][3]. Policy and Market Expectations - The market's price fluctuations are closely linked to the compliance period, typically resulting in lower demand and prices post-compliance [3]. - The introduction of the "Interim Regulations on Carbon Emission Trading" and calls for market expansion have initially raised price expectations, but these have since been tempered as market expectations are realized [3][9]. Market Expansion - The national carbon market expanded in March, including industries such as steel, cement, and aluminum, which is expected to add 1,500 key emission units, covering over 60% of national CO2 emissions [3][9]. - Despite the expansion, there has been no corresponding increase in trading volume or market activity, leading to discussions about the potential need for financial institutions to participate in trading [3][4]. CCER vs. CEA Pricing - The price of CCER (China Certified Emission Reduction) has remained stable at 85 yuan/ton, approximately 24% higher than CEA prices, leading to a price inversion [7][9]. - The demand for CCER is driven by both mandatory reduction requirements and voluntary purchases for corporate social responsibility, resulting in a more stable price compared to CEA [9][10]. Future Outlook - The current price inversion between CCER and CEA is deemed unsustainable, as prolonged discrepancies may reduce demand for CEA [9][10]. - The differing market mechanisms of CEA (mandatory reduction) and CCER (voluntary reduction) suggest that fluctuations in one market will not necessarily stabilize the other [10].

Core Viewpoint - Suzhou Huaxing Yuanchuang Technology Co., Ltd. is a leading provider of industrial automation testing equipment and complete line system solutions, focusing on various high-tech industries such as LCD, OLED, semiconductor integrated circuits, and smart wearable devices [2][4]. Company Overview - The company specializes in providing automation testing equipment across multiple process nodes for chips, SIPs, modules, systems, and complete machines, leveraging core technologies in electronics, optics, acoustics, RF, machine vision, and mechanical automation [2]. - The company maintains a strong competitive advantage and independent innovation capability in high-speed, high-frequency, and high-precision signal board cards, machine vision image algorithms, and precision connection components [2]. R&D Investment - In 2024, the company's R&D investment amounted to 39.4 million yuan, remaining stable compared to the previous year, accounting for 21.62% of current revenue, an increase of 0.28 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company has applied for a total of 304 domestic and international intellectual property rights, with 261 newly approved, indicating significant research achievements and a strong R&D-driven characteristic [3]. AI Application - The company is actively researching the application of AI algorithms in detection technologies, expecting a substantial improvement in detection efficiency [3]. International Expansion - Internationalization is a key strategic direction for the company, which has established subsidiaries in countries such as South Korea, Japan, the United States, Singapore, Vietnam, Thailand, and India to meet market demands [4]. - The company plans to accelerate its global market layout and deepen its overseas business development [4]. Competitive Strategy - The company faces intense competition from foreign manufacturers in the flat panel display detection, wearable smart device detection, and integrated circuit testing industries, where foreign firms hold a technological advantage [4]. - To combat increasing market competition, the company will enhance R&D investment, attract top talent, and strengthen its design, production, and market development capabilities [4].