Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core View The report suggests that the medium - to long - term outlook for precious metals may be bullish. For the short - term, the volatility of London gold is continuously narrowing, and attention should be paid to the support at the 3300 level and the short - term direction choice. The support level for London silver is around 37.3. The operation strategy is to maintain the idea of buying on dips [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - On Wednesday, the precious metals market was generally volatile. The market fluctuated sharply due to the news that Trump might fire Powell in advance. The US dollar index is facing key resistance at 99 (60 - day moving average) and 100. The 10Y US Treasury yield is approaching the 4.5% watershed, which may have a negative impact on precious metals in the short term. The influence of the US dollar's appreciation on RMB - denominated precious metals is relatively limited. The surrounding US stocks fluctuated slightly higher, Bitcoin rose, crude oil fluctuated, and the South China Non - ferrous Metals fluctuated [2]. - COMEX gold 2508 contract closed at $3354.2 per ounce, up 0.52%; US silver 2509 contract closed at $38.125 per ounce, up 0.04%. SHFE gold 2510 main contract was at 776.66 yuan per gram, down 0.2%; SHFE silver 2510 contract was at 9152 yuan per kilogram, down 0.35% [2]. - Fed's permanent voting member Williams said that the US economy is expected to grow by about 1% this year, and the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.5% by the end of the year. The overall inflation rate in June may be 2.5%, and the core inflation rate may be 2.75%. Tariffs are in the "initial stage" of affecting the economy and are expected to push up the inflation rate by one percentage point in the remaining time of 2025 and in 2026 [2]. - The Fed's Beige Book showed that from the end of May to the beginning of July, economic activity increased slightly, and the economic outlook was neutral to slightly pessimistic. Only two regions expected economic activity to grow, while other regions expected it to remain flat or decline slightly [2]. 2. Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - The expectation of an interest rate cut in September has slightly cooled. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 95.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 4.1%. In September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 43.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 54%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 2.2%. In October, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 19.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 48.3%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 31%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 1.3% [3]. - In terms of long - term funds, the SPDR Gold ETF's holdings increased by 3.15 tons to 950.79 tons; the iShares Silver ETF's holdings decreased by 36.73 tons to 14819.29 tons. For inventory, SHFE silver inventory decreased by 9.9 tons to 1212.8 tons, and SGX silver inventory increased by 7.3 tons to 1327.2 tons in the week ending July 4 [3]. 3. This Week's Focus - This week, focus on the US retail sales data and weekly initial jobless claims on Thursday evening. At 22:00 on Thursday, Fed Governor Kugler will speak on the housing market and the outlook for the US economy [4]. 4. Price and Inventory Tables - The precious metals' futures and spot price table shows the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE gold and silver, SGX gold and silver, CME gold and silver, etc. For example, SHFE gold main - continuous contract is at 776.66 yuan per gram, down 0.48% [6]. - The inventory and holding table shows the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and CME gold and silver inventories and holdings, as well as SPDR gold and SLV silver holdings. For example, SHFE gold inventory is 28872 kilograms, with no change [14]. 5. Other Market Data - The stock - bond - commodity summary table shows the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of the US dollar index, US stocks, crude oil, copper, US Treasury yields, etc. For example, the US dollar index is at 98.3222, down 0.31% [20].