加元延续区间震荡走势，商品货币属性、美加货币政策博弈与贸易不确定性形成三重制衡，兑美元短线 小幅走强，整体仍未脱离开年以来的震荡格局，成为非美货币中走势偏纠结的品种。 1月26日，美元兑加元盘中下探1.3677日内新低，截至发稿交投于该位置，日内跌幅0.1679%，开盘与前 一交易日收盘均为1.3697，日内最高触及1.3709。开年以来加元兑人民币先经历连续贬值，1月1日至19 日累计贬值约1.55%，近期随非美货币集体走强小幅回弹，整体仍显弱势。 加拿大央行始终维持2.25%基准利率不变，行长明确当前利率处于"合适水平"，市场75%机构预测2026 年全年利率维稳，降息周期基本收尾，偏稳基调为加元提供基础托底。同时加央行正启动五年一度的货 币政策框架审查，政策端的短期不确定性，叠加机构对其长期操作的分歧，制约了加元的上行动能。 美联储则呈现"偏鹰但宽松基调未改"的特征，降息预期虽推迟至6月，但年内预计降息54个基点，美加 利差持续收窄弱化了美元的相对优势，为加元兑美元走强提供支撑，却因美联储利率仍处高位，无法推 动加元走出单边上行行情。 加元作为能源出口导向型货币，与国际油价深度绑定，近期地缘风险引发的能 ...

Core Insights - The US dollar ended the previous week softer, influenced by inflation signals, rising Treasury yields, and uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve and the White House [1] - Mixed inflation data, with Core CPI undershooting expectations and PPI meeting them, did not significantly alter the Federal Reserve's near-term policy stance [2] - The breakout in the 10-year yield above 4.2% suggests a potential increase in long-term US yields, yet the dollar struggled to gain traction due to resilient equity sentiment and reduced geopolitical fears [3] Currency Performance - The New Zealand dollar led the G10 currencies, supported by strong domestic manufacturing data, while the Canadian dollar benefited from optimism regarding renewed trade engagement with China [4] - European currencies, particularly the Euro, Swiss Franc, and Sterling, performed poorly due to political issues and declining growth momentum [4] - The Yen traded unevenly, influenced by speculation over US-Japan FX intervention and expectations of further Bank of Japan tightening, but overall demand for safe havens remained low [5] Currency Pairs Analysis - GBP/AUD has weakened significantly, with expectations for the trend to continue lower, potentially testing the key level of 1.98820 [6][8] - EUR/NZD has formed a head-and-shoulders pattern, with a baseline around 2.007; a break below this level could lead to a nearly 3% decline, testing the previous key level at 1.96225 [9][10] Market Outlook - Upcoming events, including the Davos summit and US-EU tensions over Greenland, are expected to create volatility in the Euro and Swiss Franc [11] - The acceleration of the equity earnings season, with results from major companies like Netflix and Intel, will shape risk sentiment and influence Dollar-sensitive carry trades [12] - The 10-year yield's movement above 4.2% will be closely monitored, as its trajectory could significantly impact the US dollar's performance against improving global risk appetite [13]

Core Viewpoint - The first week of December exhibited a dip-buying seasonal pattern with major indices rising, while significant price movements occurred in the forex market due to changing central bank expectations and improved global risk sentiment [1] Forex Market Analysis - The U.S. Dollar underperformed against G10 currencies, influenced by softer private employment data, mixed labor indicators, and a decrease in the Fed's preferred inflation gauge to its lowest year-on-year level since May, reinforcing expectations for a rate cut [2] - Despite a rebound in longer-dated Treasury yields, this did not significantly boost the Dollar as investors shifted towards higher-beta currencies amid improved risk sentiment [3] Currency Performance - The Swiss Franc lagged as defensive positioning faded, with rising yields outside Switzerland and stable equity markets [4] - The Euro struggled to gain traction despite the Dollar's weakness, hindered by concerns over the euro area's growth and yield advantages [4] - The Australian Dollar rose sharply, driven by market speculation that the RBA may need to resume tightening in 2026, supported by comments from Governor Michele Bullock regarding inflation risks [4][5] - The Canadian Dollar also strengthened due to robust labor market data, leading to expectations that the Bank of Canada will maintain rates into 2026, while Sterling benefited from positive sentiment following the Autumn Budget [5] Market Focus and Expectations - The upcoming week is centered on the Fed's December decision, with the CME FedWatch tool indicating a nearly 90% probability of a rate cut [10] - With the rate cut already priced in, the focus will shift to how the Fed communicates its easing trajectory into 2026 and whether upcoming market data supports a more aggressive rate-cut profile [11]

Market Overview - Global financial markets are influenced by shifting monetary policy expectations, geopolitical developments, and varied economic data [2] - Commodity markets, currency pairs, and equity futures are reacting to these influential factors [2] Commodities Sector - Copper prices have declined, with the LME three-month contract dropping to USD 10,669.00 per ton [3] - The decline is attributed to skepticism regarding a potential US Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December, with only a 46% chance of a 25-basis-point cut indicated by the CME FedWatch Tool [3] Geopolitical Developments - The UN Security Council is preparing for a vote on a US-drafted resolution for an International Stabilization Force (ISF) in Gaza, which includes a controversial clause on a "pathway to a Palestinian state" [4] - The proposed ISF is expected to comprise approximately 20,000 troops, with initial deployment anticipated by January 2026 [4] Currency Markets - The Japanese Yen has weakened to a nine-month low against the US Dollar, trading around 154.82 per dollar, driven by uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Japan's rate-hike decisions [5] - The USD/CAD pair is maintaining gains near 1.4050, while the Canadian Dollar struggles due to declining crude oil prices, with WTI trading at approximately $59.30 per barrel [5] US Equity Markets - NASDAQ and S&P 500 futures indicate a higher open, supported by optimism surrounding the anticipated end of a US government shutdown [6] - Donald Trump has reversed his stance, now advocating for a vote to release Jeffrey Epstein files while simultaneously suing the Wall Street Journal for $10 billion [6] Economic Data - Thailand's economy grew by 3.2% year-on-year in Q4 2024, an acceleration from the 3.0% growth in Q3 [7] - Private consumption increased by 3.4% year-on-year, contributing positively to overall economic expansion [8]

Group 1: Market Overview - The global foreign exchange market experienced significant volatility this week, influenced by trade negotiations, Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, global central bank policy dynamics, and geopolitical risks [1][6] - The focus of the market is on the progress of tariff negotiations, the direction of Federal Reserve policies, and the performance of global economic data, with geopolitical risks and trade policy uncertainties remaining key factors affecting market sentiment [6] Group 2: Dollar Performance - The US dollar index showed a fluctuating trend, opening around 99.8, reaching a high of 100.64, with an increase of approximately 1.03% [3] - Initially pressured by expectations that the Federal Reserve might maintain interest rates, the dollar rebounded after comments from Fed Chair Powell regarding inflation and trade policy, closing at 100.42 [3] - The dollar exhibited "bull-bear divergence," with investors remaining cautious due to the complexity of US economic data and global economic uncertainties [3] Group 3: Euro and Pound Performance - The euro experienced a volatile week, initially rising for two consecutive trading days before declining on Wednesday and Thursday, closing with a slight rebound at 1.12511 [3] - The euro is expected to face long-term resistance at 1.2150, with insufficient upward momentum, likely maintaining a narrow ascending channel in the short term [3] - The British pound weakened due to uncertainties surrounding the Bank of England's interest rate decision and economic data, closing around 1.3300 [3] Group 4: Safe-Haven and Commodity Currencies - Safe-haven currencies like the yen and Swiss franc performed poorly this week, with the USD/JPY pair showing a V-shaped trend as market risk aversion eased amid tariff negotiations [4] - Commodity currencies were mixed, with the Australian dollar weakening due to global economic growth concerns and commodity price fluctuations, while the Canadian dollar stabilized and rebounded due to rising oil prices [5] Group 5: Global Central Bank Dynamics - Several central banks maintained their policies this week, including the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, which continued their accommodative stances [7] - The Norwegian central bank kept high interest rates to address rising inflation [7] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority took actions to stabilize the Hong Kong dollar, emphasizing the importance of regional financial stability [6][7]