地缘政治不确定性的再度升温是此次波动率飙升的核心原因。Granite Bay Wealth Management首席投资 官保罗·斯坦利表示："股市面临的主要风险是地缘政治紧张局势。尽管股市尚未对2026年迄今出现的地 缘政治紧张做出显著反应，但这些新闻头条重要地提醒我们，地缘政治因素随时可能成为主导，因此投 资者应始终为头条新闻驱动的波动做好准备。" 智通财经APP获悉，周二，随着投资者的焦虑情绪重新浮现，市场波动性再度成为焦点。衡量市场预期 波动程度的重要指标——Cboe波动率指数(VIX)强势突破20这一关键关口，升至近两个月来的最高水 平，显示出市场风险偏好出现明显转变。这一被称为"恐慌指数"的指标目前已较上周尾盘大幅走高，累 计涨幅接近28%，目前徘徊在20.69附近，标志着年初以来市场相对平静的阶段宣告结束。 当地时间1月17日，特朗普在社交媒体上宣布，将从2月1日起对来自丹麦、挪威、瑞典、法国、德国、 英国、荷兰和芬兰的输美商品加征10%关税，并宣称加征关税的税率将从6月1日起提高至25%，直到相 关方就美国"全面、彻底购买格陵兰岛"达成协议。 当地时间1月18日，欧盟召开紧急会议，就反制方案可 ...

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index has successfully broken through its key 200-day moving average, signaling positive momentum in the market [1][2] - The current level of the S&P 500 is around 5900 points, showing a positive growth trend year-to-date [1] - Historical data suggests that once the market re-establishes above the 200-day moving average, it often continues to rise in the following weeks or months [2][3] Group 2 - Analysts predict that the S&P 500 could reach a target range of 6125 to 6170 points, with a potential average increase of 8.6% over the next 12 months [2][3] - The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) has significantly decreased from above 50 to just over 18, indicating reduced investor panic and uncertainty [3] - The market rebound may not be over, as many investors have yet to fully adjust their positions from defensive assets like gold and high-dividend stocks [3][4] Group 3 - The potential support level for the S&P 500 may have shifted to 5200 points, contingent on continued corporate earnings growth and alleviation of inflation and recession concerns [4][5] - The likelihood of the market hitting new lows is decreasing unless a panic similar to last month re-emerges [5]