Core Viewpoint - The significant drop in gold and silver prices is attributed to profit-taking by investors and a cooling geopolitical situation, with gold experiencing its largest single-day decline in over five years [1][2][3]. Price Movements - On the 21st, international spot gold prices fell by approximately 5.3% to $4,123.85 per ounce, with an intraday drop of 6.3%, marking the largest decline in over a decade [1]. - By the 22nd, gold futures were reported at $4,034.9 per ounce, down 1.81%, while London spot gold was at $4,020.44, down 2.5% [1]. - Silver futures also saw a decline, dropping over 7% on the same day [1]. Market Trends - Since the beginning of the year, international spot gold prices have increased by over 50%, while silver prices have risen nearly 70% [1]. - Analysts suggest that the previous surge in precious metals was driven by geopolitical tensions, leading to a rush for safe-haven assets, and that a calming market sentiment could lead to further price corrections [1][3]. Historical Context - Historical data indicates that when gold prices deviate more than 24% from the 200-day moving average, a correction of approximately 18% can occur over a period of 3 to 6 months [4]. - The recent rise in gold prices from around $3,300 to over $4,000 per ounce was influenced by geopolitical changes, global economic uncertainty, and central bank gold purchases [6]. Market Reactions - The volatility in gold prices has shocked many sellers in the market, with reports of significant price drops affecting sales [7][9]. - Despite the price adjustments, consumer interest remains, although many are adopting a wait-and-see approach, hoping for further declines before purchasing [11][13]. - The drop in gold prices has also led to a slowdown in the active gold recycling market, with a reported decrease in customer visits by over one-third [18].

Group 1 - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has fallen below the 200-day moving average, currently at 4.35%, marking a decline of approximately 6 basis points and continuing a downward trend for the fourth consecutive trading day [1] - Earlier in the day, the yield also dropped below the 50-day moving average and is approaching the 100-day moving average [1] - Bloomberg data indicates that the closing rates for these three technical indicators last Friday were 4.3584%, 4.4064%, and 4.3388% respectively [1]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current gold price is showing a rebound, maintaining above the $3300 level, supported by geopolitical tensions and economic concerns [1] - The daily chart indicates that gold remains above the MA5, suggesting an ongoing upward trend, with a key resistance level at $3360 [2] - Short-term fluctuations are expected, with support at $3300 and potential resistance between $3325 and $3330 [4] Group 2: Silver Market Analysis - Silver prices are forming a narrow range above the 50-day moving average at $32.70, with a breakout above $33.70 potentially leading to new buying momentum [4] - If the price fails to hold above the 50-day moving average, it could quickly drop to the 200-day moving average at $31.52, indicating a shift in market sentiment [4] Group 3: Crude Oil Market Analysis - The crude oil market is experiencing downward pressure, with a mid-term trend indicating a potential decline towards the $50 level after testing the upper boundary of a bearish flag pattern [5] - Short-term trading is expected to remain within the range of $62.20 to $60.00, with a focus on buying on dips and selling on rebounds [5]

Core Viewpoint - The offshore Chinese yuan (CNH) against the US dollar reported at 7.1896, showing a decline of 128 points from the previous trading session, with trading range between 7.1712 and 7.1940 [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Exchange Rate Movement** - The CNH/USD exchange rate decreased to 7.1896, down 128 points from the previous close [1] - The daily trading range was between 7.1712 and 7.1940 [1] - **Technical Indicators** - Since May 2, the 200-day moving average has provided continuous support, currently at 7.2252 [1]

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index has successfully broken through its key 200-day moving average, signaling positive momentum in the market [1][2] - The current level of the S&P 500 is around 5900 points, showing a positive growth trend year-to-date [1] - Historical data suggests that once the market re-establishes above the 200-day moving average, it often continues to rise in the following weeks or months [2][3] Group 2 - Analysts predict that the S&P 500 could reach a target range of 6125 to 6170 points, with a potential average increase of 8.6% over the next 12 months [2][3] - The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) has significantly decreased from above 50 to just over 18, indicating reduced investor panic and uncertainty [3] - The market rebound may not be over, as many investors have yet to fully adjust their positions from defensive assets like gold and high-dividend stocks [3][4] Group 3 - The potential support level for the S&P 500 may have shifted to 5200 points, contingent on continued corporate earnings growth and alleviation of inflation and recession concerns [4][5] - The likelihood of the market hitting new lows is decreasing unless a panic similar to last month re-emerges [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a strong rebound in the U.S. stock market, with the S&P 500 index rising 3.3% and successfully breaking through the critical 200-day moving average, marking the first time in over 30 trading days that it has surpassed this long-term trend indicator [1] - The 200-day moving average is widely regarded as a dividing line between bull and bear markets, indicating that prolonged trading below this level suggests weak market trends and diminished investor confidence [1] - Historical data from SentimenTrader shows that when the S&P 500 index hovers below the 200-day moving average for over 30 trading days after a three-year high, the subsequent performance is often positive, with a median gain of 4.1% over the next three months and a median return of double-digit growth over the following 12 months [1][3] Group 2 - The recent market rebound was catalyzed by the announcement of a 90-day pause on certain tariffs between the U.S. and China, which led to significant gains in major indices, including a 2.8% increase in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and a 4.4% rise in the Nasdaq Composite, officially exiting the "bear market" territory [4] - There is ongoing debate regarding the sustainability of this rally, with some market strategists emphasizing the importance of maintaining the 200-day moving average as a potential turning point for reaching new highs, while cautioning that failure to hold this level may indicate a short-term emotional rebound rather than a lasting recovery [4] - The potential for an economic recession remains a concern, as it could lead to long-term declines driven by shrinking corporate profits and household incomes, although the current situation has not yet fully entered this phase [4]