11月17日，国际金价延续上周五大跌后的震荡走势。 截至记者发稿，伦敦金现微跌0.12%，报4077.31美元/盎司，盘中最低跌破4050美元/盎司。 | 伦敦金现 | | | SPTAUUSDOZ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 4077.310 | | | -4.849 -0.12% | | IDC USD 16:18:58 | | | 8 | | 一 | 4077.550 | | | | 买一 | 4077.310 | | | | 总量 | 0 | 现手 | 0 | | 结算价 | | 开盘 | 4084.650 | | 最高 | 4109.720 | 最低 | 4049.440 | | 均价 | | 振幅 | 1.48% | | 外盘 | 0 | 内盘 | 0 | | 昨结 | 4082.159 | 昨夜 | 4082.159 | | 涨停 | 0.000 | 跌停 | 0.000 | | 持仓 | 0 | 增仓 | 0 | | 估结算 | | 基差1 | 0.00 | 期货方面，COMEX黄金期货盘中亦发生跳水。截至记者发稿，COMEX黄金期货日内跌0.32%，报 408 ...

Core Insights - The World Bank predicts that precious metal prices will reach historical highs by 2026, following a 41% increase this year [1] - Gold prices surpassed $4,300 per ounce in October, while silver reached $54 per ounce, before experiencing a slight decline [1] - The demand for gold is expected to remain strong due to ongoing central bank purchases and safe-haven demand, while silver prices are anticipated to rise further due to industrial demand from renewable energy technologies [1][3] Gold Market - Gold demand is projected to grow by 10% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by strong investment inflows, including from gold ETFs and central bank purchases [2] - Central banks' gold purchases have reached record levels, with the amount since 2022 being more than double the average from 2015-2019 [2] - Gold prices are expected to increase by approximately 42% in 2025, marking the largest annual increase since the late 1970s [2] Silver Market - Silver prices surged to around $54 per ounce in mid-October, supported by safe-haven demand and strong industrial needs [3] - Industrial applications account for over half of silver demand, with expectations for continued growth driven by renewable energy and semiconductor production [3] - Silver prices are forecasted to rise by about 34% in 2025 and an additional 8% in 2026, despite slow supply growth [3] Platinum Market - Platinum prices have increased significantly due to production falling to multi-year lows, with automotive demand expected to grow moderately [3] - The supply of platinum is anticipated to recover slightly, mainly due to increased mining output in South Africa, but will still remain below demand [3] - Platinum prices are expected to rise by 29% in 2025 and approximately 4% in 2026 [3] Overall Market Outlook - The outlook for precious metals is skewed towards the upside, with potential upward pressure from escalating geopolitical tensions and trade frictions [4] - Downside risks include a hawkish stance from U.S. monetary policy and a potential easing of geopolitical tensions, which could suppress investment demand [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company anticipates a loss of HKD 2.9 million for the six months ending September 30, 2025, a significant decline from a pre-tax profit of HKD 12.1 million in the same period last year, representing a decrease of approximately HKD 15 million in pre-tax profit [1] Group 1 - The decline in revenue is attributed to unfavorable macroeconomic conditions, geopolitical tensions, and specific industry headwinds [1] - These factors have weakened market confidence, leading to reduced demand, project sales delays, and increased pricing pressure [1] - Overall, revenue is expected to decrease by 29.6% [1]

怡邦行控股(00599)发布公告，预期本集团截至2025年9月30日止6个月将呈报亏损290万港元，或与去年 同期的除税前溢利1210万港元相比，本期间除税前溢利将减少约1500万港元。收益下滑是由于不利的宏 观经济条件、地缘政治紧张局势及特定行业逆风因素，该等因素削弱市场信心，进而导致需求减少、项 目销售延迟及定价压力增加，最终造成收益下降29.6%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Dairis International (00333) reported a 25% year-on-year decline in sales for Q1 of the 2026 fiscal year, totaling HKD 236 million, primarily due to weak market demand and inventory control measures by U.S. brands and retailers in response to trade uncertainties [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The sales in the U.S. market accounted for 74% of total sales, followed by Europe at 10% and other markets at 16% [1]. - The gross profit margin was pressured due to underutilization of capacity leading to fixed costs not being fully absorbed, along with a product mix skewed towards lower-margin products [1]. Group 2: Market Outlook - The company anticipates continued business sluggishness in the short term, influenced by recent changes and instability in U.S. trade policies, which directly impact the market [2]. - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and instability in the Middle East, are expected to exacerbate uncertainties in the operating environment and reshape global trade dynamics [2]. Group 3: Strategic Response - In response to the challenging operating environment, Dairis will continue to strictly control costs and remain vigilant [2]. - The company is encouraged by initial successes in new business development, product innovation, and insights into consumer trends, which are helping to attract new customers [2]. - Dairis is committed to leveraging its established strategies of technological innovation, vertical integration, quality service, and a multinational production network to navigate current challenges and achieve sustainable growth [2][3].

【环球时报特约记者 梁晓安】欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩、德国总理默茨以及其他众多欧盟领导人将缺 席9日至10日在哥伦比亚圣玛尔塔举行的欧盟—拉美和加勒比国家共同体峰会，彭博社5日称，部分原因 是担心激怒美国领导人。目前只有5名欧洲领导人与3名来自拉丁美洲和加勒比地区的领导人确认将参加 此次会议，远低于哥伦比亚获得主办权时预期的60人。 彭博社称，据知情人士透露，出席人数偏低的部分原因是华盛顿在该地区日益强硬的立场。美方一直在 加大对委内瑞拉的军事威胁，并且在最近对佩特罗实施了制裁。《波哥大城市报》称，一些欧洲官员担 心，在美国实施制裁后不久就参加由佩特罗主持的峰会，可能会被美方解读为外交"挑衅"。欧盟国家目 前严重依赖美国的军事情报和武器供应来支持乌克兰，他们还希望避免破坏跨大西洋贸易争端中脆弱的 休战状态。 《波哥大城市报》称，一场被誉为哥伦比亚十余年来最具雄心的外交盛会，原本预计能汇聚欧洲、拉美 和加勒比地区60余位国家领导人的会议，如今却演变成一场从华盛顿延伸至布鲁塞尔再到波哥大的地缘 政治紧张局势的鲜明写照。佩特罗在社交平台X上称，有外部势力企图破坏美洲的和平，使此次峰会失 败。 彭博社5日称，预计巴西总 ...

Core Insights - The price of spot gold has increased by 50% this year, reaching a historical high of $4,381 per ounce on October 20, driven by geopolitical tensions, uncertainty in U.S. tariff policies, and a "fear of missing out" (FOMO) buying spree [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The outlook for gold remains optimistic due to a weakening dollar, rising expectations for interest rate cuts, and threats of stagflation, which may further boost investment demand [2] - The Federal Reserve has lowered the benchmark short-term interest rate to a range of 3.75%-4%, the lowest level since 2020, following a second consecutive 25 basis point cut [2] - The market reacted sharply to Fed Chair Powell's comments, which cast doubt on the likelihood of further rate cuts this year, leading to a rise in the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield by 0.092 percentage points [2] Group 2: Demand Dynamics - Global demand for gold bars and coins increased by 17% year-on-year in Q3, primarily driven by markets in India and China [3] - The inflow of funds into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tracking physical gold surged by 134% [3] - However, global jewelry manufacturing demand for gold fell by 23% year-on-year to 419.2 metric tons, as high gold prices dampened consumer purchasing willingness [3] - Central banks' gold purchases in Q3 rose by 10% year-on-year, totaling 219.9 metric tons [3] Group 3: Current Market Analysis - Recent trading saw gold prices dip to a low of $3,915, with the market showing signs of temporary calm [4] - The short-term outlook suggests a bearish trend unless gold prices recover above the $4,000 mark [4] - Key support levels are identified at $3,915, with potential further declines testing the $3,885-$3,890 range if broken [4]

Core Points - The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to keep the key deposit rate unchanged at 2%, marking the third consecutive meeting without a rate change since the last cut in June, when the inflation rate in the Eurozone reached the target of 2% [1] - The ECB stated that inflation remains close to the medium-term target of 2%, and the assessment of the inflation outlook has largely remained unchanged [1] - Despite a challenging global environment, the economy continues to grow, supported by a strong labor market and robust private sector balance sheets [1] - The ECB warned of uncertainties in the outlook, particularly due to ongoing global trade disputes and geopolitical tensions [1] - Eurozone inflation rose slightly to 2.2% in September, primarily driven by an increase in service prices, leading economists to suggest that the ECB is likely to adopt a cautious approach regarding interest rate adjustments [1] Economic Data - Preliminary data showed that the Eurozone's economy grew by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter, which was above expectations and reinforced the ECB's decision to maintain interest rates [3] - The ECB reiterated its approach of making interest rate decisions based on data and meeting-by-meeting assessments [3] - ECB officials indicated that the rate-cutting cycle is nearing its end, with comments suggesting that there is no immediate need to adjust policies unless significant changes occur [3] - A survey conducted in mid-October revealed that the majority of economists expect the ECB to keep the deposit rate unchanged for the remainder of the year, with 57% of surveyed economists predicting that rates will remain stable until the end of 2026 [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the ongoing geopolitical tensions in Europe are suppressing the euro's outlook while increasing demand for traditional safe-haven assets, particularly the US dollar [1] - The Federal Reserve's persistent hawkish stance supports the strength of the dollar, with officials suggesting that interest rates need to remain at current levels longer than previously expected [1] - In contrast, the Eurozone is facing a significant slowdown in business activity, with recent PMI data confirming contractions in both manufacturing and services [1] Group 2 - The European Central Bank (ECB) has adopted a cautious tone, indicating substantial downside risks to economic growth, which exacerbates downward pressure on the euro [1] - The widening divergence in monetary policy between the ECB and the US is creating fundamental imbalances, further supporting the dollar [1] - Overall fundamentals continue to favor the dollar, suggesting further downside potential for the euro against the dollar [1] Group 3 - Technical analysis shows that the EUR/USD pair is forming a narrow consolidation range around 1.1600 after a significant downward move, indicating the potential for a third wave of downward trend [4] - A decisive break below this consolidation range could signal a resumption of bearish momentum, with an initial target of 1.1488 [4] - The MACD indicator confirms this bearish technical outlook, with its signal line remaining below the zero line and pointing downward, indicating ongoing selling pressure [4] Group 4 - The one-hour chart indicates that a downward move has completed at 1.1576, followed by a pullback to 1.1620, outlining the current consolidation area [6] - A breakout from this range could trigger a short-term pullback to 1.1655 before resuming a broader downward trend, targeting 1.1500 [6] - Conversely, a break below this range would directly trigger bearish fluctuations, with a target of 1.1488, marking the completion of the first phase of the third downward wave [6] Group 5 - The combination of fundamental support for the dollar and the deteriorating outlook for the Eurozone maintains a bearish bias for the EUR/USD pair [7] - The currency pair appears to be pausing within a broader downward trend, with a break below 1.1600 potentially triggering the next leg down, targeting 1.1488 [7]

Group 1: U.S. Actions in Venezuela - The U.S. is considering ground operations against drug trafficking groups in Venezuela, with President Trump authorizing the CIA to conduct secret operations in the country [1][3][4] - Trump accused the Venezuelan government of releasing prisoners and sending large quantities of drugs to the U.S., claiming that the Pentagon is contemplating land strikes [4][5] - The U.S. military has reportedly sunk five drug trafficking boats since September, claiming to have killed 27 traffickers [4][5] Group 2: Geopolitical Tensions and Military Cooperation - Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov warned that providing Ukraine with "Tomahawk" missiles would severely damage U.S.-Russia relations, indicating a dangerous escalation [8][9] - President Putin signed a military cooperation agreement with Cuba, which is seen as a move to strengthen Russia's military presence in the Western Hemisphere [10] Group 3: Ukraine Conflict - Trump stated that Ukrainian President Zelensky will present reasons for Ukraine's offensive during his visit to the U.S., with discussions expected on the provision of "Tomahawk" missiles [8][9] - Zelensky is seeking advanced missile systems from the U.S. to alter the course of the conflict, while Trump has not yet made a final commitment on these requests [8][9]