Core Viewpoint - Citigroup has revised its gold price forecast upwards, expecting prices to reach new highs due to deteriorating U.S. economic outlook and rising inflation concerns, with a target price increase from $3,300 to $3,500 per ounce [1][3]. Economic Outlook and Inflation Concerns - The report indicates that the worsening U.S. economic outlook and inflation fears will drive gold prices to historical highs, contrasting sharply with previous bearish predictions [3][4]. - The anticipated economic growth and tariff-related inflation concerns are expected to persist into the second half of 2025, contributing to a moderate increase in gold prices [3][4]. Employment Data and Market Expectations - Recent U.S. non-farm payroll data showed weak performance, with only 73,000 jobs added in July, significantly below expectations, leading to renewed market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, with an 81% probability [3][4]. Geopolitical Risks and Tariff Policies - Ongoing geopolitical risks, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have increased the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset [4]. - The recent imposition of high tariffs by the Trump administration on multiple trade partners has also been a significant factor in Citigroup's upward revision of gold price expectations [5][10]. Strong Demand for Gold - Since mid-2022, total gold demand has increased by over one-third, with prices expected to nearly double by the second quarter of 2025, driven by strong investment demand, moderate central bank purchases, and resilient jewelry demand despite rising prices [6]. - Gold typically performs well during periods of political and economic uncertainty and becomes more attractive in low-interest-rate environments, which is expected to be the case as Fed rate cut expectations rise [6]. Market Price Update - As of Monday's Asian trading session, the spot gold price was recorded at $3,356.37 per ounce [7]. Shift in Predictions - Citigroup's latest forecast represents a stark contrast to its previous outlook, which anticipated gold prices would fall below $3,000 in the coming quarters due to improving global growth confidence and a shift in U.S. trade policy [10]. - The rapid adjustment in Citigroup's stance reflects the swift changes in the global macroeconomic environment and a reassessment of inflation risks and economic uncertainties [10].

Group 1 - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts global economic growth at 3.0% for this year, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the April prediction, and 3.1% for 2026, also up by 0.1 percentage points [1] - The global trade growth forecast has been raised by 0.9 percentage points to 2.6% for this year, indicating resilience in the global economy amid increasing uncertainties [1] - China's economic growth forecast has been adjusted upward by 0.8 percentage points to 5.6% for this year, and by 0.2 percentage points to 4.4% for next year [1] - The growth forecast for India has been slightly increased by 0.2 percentage points to 6.4% for this year and by 0.1 percentage points for next year [1] - Developed economies' growth predictions have been raised by 0.1 percentage points to 1.5% for this year and 1.6% for next year [1] - The U.S. economic growth forecast has been increased by 0.1 percentage points to 1.9% for this year and by 0.3 percentage points to 2.0% for next year [1] - The growth forecast for developing countries has been raised by 0.4 percentage points to 4.1% for this year and by 0.1 percentage points to 4.0% for next year [1] - The Eurozone growth forecast has been adjusted upward by 0.2 percentage points to 1.0% for this year, while the next year's forecast remains at 1.2% [1] Group 2 - The IMF warns that there are still widespread downside risks to the economic situation, including potential increases in average tariff rates and unresolved trade tensions stemming from the Trump administration [2] - Ongoing uncertainties may begin to suppress economic activity, while geopolitical tensions could exacerbate inflationary pressures and disrupt supply chains [2] - High debt levels, unstable public finances, and various structural imbalances continue to pose significant risks [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the global economic environment has become more unfavorable and uncertain due to the economic policies and outlook of the United States, particularly its trade and fiscal policies [1] - Emerging market economies need to exercise extra caution in response to the escalating geopolitical tensions [1]

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices have risen due to progress in tariff negotiations between the Trump administration and the European Union, alleviating concerns about the global economic outlook [1] Group 1: Trade Developments - Recent trade dynamics have sparked investor optimism, with expectations that the U.S. may reach agreements with more trading partners before the August 1 deadline [1] Group 2: Demand and Geopolitical Factors - Strong signs of summer fuel demand in the U.S. and unresolved geopolitical tensions are providing additional support for oil prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - ASM International highlights that uncertainties remain relatively high due to tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and the overall economic outlook [1] Group 1 - The company is facing challenges from tariffs that could impact its operational costs and pricing strategies [1] - Geopolitical tensions are contributing to an unstable business environment, potentially affecting supply chains and market access [1] - The overall economic outlook remains uncertain, which could influence investment decisions and market demand for the company's products [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices are supported by geopolitical and economic uncertainties, with a recent increase in demand for safe-haven assets like gold [1][3] - Gold is currently trading around $3347 per ounce, having risen by 0.35% last Friday due to a 0.5% decline in the US dollar index, making gold cheaper for buyers holding other currencies [1] - Analysts show a bullish sentiment towards gold, with a significant increase in retail investor optimism [1][3] Group 2 - Concerns over US debt growth and further tariff news are likely to keep gold in focus, with strong bottom support observed for gold prices [3] - The upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is expected to provide new momentum for gold prices, with market expectations indicating no changes to the federal funds rate at least until October [3] - The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve Chair, geopolitical tensions, and the weakening dollar trend are all contributing to the support for gold prices [3] Group 3 - There are concerns about weakening momentum for gold prices, as they have failed to break through the $3400 per ounce level, indicating a reduction in upward momentum [3] - The significant price increases in other precious metals like silver, platinum, and palladium suggest that some investors are shifting towards alternative assets, potentially diminishing gold's attractiveness [3] - The Federal Reserve Chair is expected to resist pressure for rate cuts, citing reasons such as uncontrolled inflation and economic uncertainty, which may limit the direct impact on gold prices from tariffs [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that markets outside the US present better investment opportunities due to attractive valuations and supportive fiscal spending and central bank policies [1] - Despite ongoing trade disputes, geopolitical tensions, expanding fiscal deficits, and rising interest rates, the market is approaching historical highs, indicating a recovery from recent lows [1] - Investors are reassessing the market, with expectations that risk factors will have limited impact, focusing instead on positive elements such as stable corporate earnings and increasing fiscal spending [1] Group 2 - Prudential has reduced its underweight allocation to large US stocks due to balanced upside and downside risks surrounding tariff negotiations [2] - The company maintains an underweight allocation to bonds due to increased supply needed for US fiscal policy and potential inflation threats from tariffs that could raise US interest rates [2] - Prudential has decreased its underweight allocation to growth stocks relative to value stocks, driven by renewed enthusiasm for AI investments [2] Group 3 - The company continues to favor short-duration bonds as the short end of the yield curve is constrained by Federal Reserve policies, while the long end has more upside potential [2] - Prudential maintains a high allocation to inflation-linked bonds and Asian credit [2] - The company also holds a high allocation to cash for its attractive yield and to limit duration risk, although some cash has been reallocated to equity risk [2]

Group 1: Stock Strategy - The company suggests maintaining a defensive stance and focusing on bottom-up earnings, as the Chinese market showed mixed performance in Q2 2025 after a strong Q1 [2] - Investors are less concerned about geopolitical tensions and have low expectations for large-scale stimulus policies, but believe China will solidify its economic growth and market performance [2] - The company plans to avoid sectors heavily reliant on policy stimulus or exports in Q3 2025, favoring industries with better earnings momentum [2] Group 2: Market Performance - In Q1 2025, the MSCI China Index rose by 15%, outperforming global markets, but only increased by 0.7% in Q2, lagging behind global indices such as Nasdaq (+17.7%) and Nikkei 225 (+18.1%) [3] - The current P/E ratio of the MSCI China Index is 11.4, close to its long-term average, with healthcare (+11.5%), financials (+11.1%), and information technology (+9.5%) performing best, while consumer discretionary (-11.2%), real estate (-3.1%), and consumer staples (-1.6%) lagged [3] Group 3: Macro Environment - The macroeconomic environment shows signs of weakness, with no strong stimulus and a slight increase in credit growth from 8.0% in 2024 to 8.7% in May 2025, but a decline in loan growth from 7.0% to 6.7% [4] - The real estate market showed some recovery in late 2024 to early 2025 but declined again in Q2 2025, with signs of weakness in trade, industrial profits, PPI, and fixed asset investment [4] Group 4: Investment Preferences - The company favors domestic demand-driven sectors such as internet and financial services, while the internet sector showed mixed performance in Q2, with entertainment outperforming e-commerce [5] - Banks and brokerages are included in the top 10 list for their potential to provide better downside protection [6] - The company has upgraded the rating for technology hardware and continues to favor the gold sector [7] - Due to profit risks from regulatory crackdowns, the company has downgraded the liquor sector to the bottom 10 for reduction, while remaining cautious on real estate, utilities, and coal sectors [8]

Market Overview - As of July 8, international oil prices increased due to extended trade negotiations and ongoing geopolitical concerns, with NYMEX crude futures rising to $67.93 per barrel (+1.39%) and ICE Brent futures reaching $69.58 per barrel (+1.87%) [1] - China's INE crude futures saw a decline to 501.3 yuan per barrel, followed by a night session increase to 512 yuan per barrel [1] Important News - Pemex, Mexico's state-owned oil company, sold $1.66 billion worth of crude oil and fuel to Cuba in Q1, with an export volume of 19,600 barrels of oil and 2,000 barrels of oil products per day, slightly up from the previous half-year [2] - Unipetrol in the Czech Republic shut down several refining units due to significant power outages, affecting a total of 73,000 barrels per day [2] - Kuwait Petroleum Corp. is offering two batches of naphtha for July shipment, with a total of approximately 5,300 tons [2] OPEC+ Production Plans - OPEC+ is expected to approve a significant production increase of approximately 550,000 barrels per day for September on August 3, following a previous increase of 138,000 barrels per day starting in April [3] - Despite a decline in oil prices, production increased by 411,000 barrels per day in May, June, and July, with a total of 2.17 million barrels per day in voluntary cuts being lifted [3] Price Trends and Outlook - Domestic refined oil demand has underperformed expectations in the first half of the year, with gasoline demand showing some improvement during holidays, leading to a fluctuating price trend [3] - The expectation for the second half of the year is a potential decline in international oil prices, with domestic gasoline and diesel wholesale prices likely to trend lower [3] - The rise in oil prices is attributed to geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic policy adjustments, with concerns over supply disruptions in the Red Sea and temporary relief from U.S. tariff delays [4] - The summer travel peak in the U.S. is driving record gasoline consumption, offsetting concerns about economic impacts from potential tariffs [4] Short-term Strategy - A bullish outlook is suggested for the short term, with resistance levels for WTI at $68-$69, Brent at $70-$71, and SC at 510-520 yuan [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) indicates the need for a more accommodative monetary policy stance due to escalating geopolitical tensions and external policy uncertainties that pose potential risks to inflation [1] Group 1 - The BSP is monitoring inflation risks closely in light of geopolitical tensions [1] - External policy uncertainties are contributing to the need for a more flexible monetary approach [1]